Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

[beatrixpotter]

This is so contradictory to me. It doesn't make sense to call people over reacting while simultaneously saying you have done a great job because you are taking extreme measures. I agree that they are probably more equipped than most countries to handle this. I mean the people there are at far greater risk if they don't do what they are told. But if it requires these extreme measures then how is it over reacting to take what measures we can currently control like banning flights?

China has hit out at countries for 'overreacting' to the killer coronavirus despite it having so far killed more than 1,500 people.

A top Chinese official defended his country's management of the epidemic, while acknowledging that the coronavirus is a 'deep challenge'.

In a wide-ranging interview with Reuters, State Councillor Wang Yi said: "The epidemic overall is under control. The epidemic is truly sudden. It has brought a challenge to China and the world."

"We've taken such complete prevention and control efforts, efforts that are so comprehensive, that I can't see any other country that can do this."

China slams West for coronavirus 'overreaction' as death toll soars past 1,500

 

[Hatfield]

TRAVIS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif.—The U.S. government is preparing to evacuate American citizens from aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the site of the biggest outbreak of the novel coronavirus outside China, according to an official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 380 Americans and their families on the ship, docked in Yokohama, Japan, will be offered seats on two State Department-organized planes flying back to the U.S., said Henry Walke, director of the CDC’s Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, on Friday. They are arriving in the U.S. as early as Sunday, he said.

U.S. to Evacuate Some Americans From Diamond Princess Cruise Ship

This is great news. Hope they take the British couple and any UK or England people with them to a safer place.

 

[beatrixpotter]

Don’t worry China says - “The epidemic overall is under control” Cruise ships are being quarantined, planes are being grounded, flights to and from China stopped, manufacturing stopped, millions of people are quarantined, hospitals are being built in seven days, crematoriums can’t keep up with demand but don’t worry it’s no worse than the flu.

Nothing is leveling off here yet. I remember when no one had it in HK, Singapore or Japan. And now they are saying they aren't going to be able to control it coming here either. The goal as mentioned in that transcript above..was that CDC or WHO? The goal is just blunting the effects here.

 

[beatrixpotter]

Thanks for putting up with me in this thread. I said when I joined I was a worrier and a glass half full kind of person. I've always been a worrier. I truly appreciate the input and info from everyone in this thread even when I don't necessarily agree. I appreciate the calming influence of the more level headed people. And I really appreciate having somewhere to go where people are actually following the actual facts of what's going on with this and not discussing how this is some bioweapon to reduce world population or something.

Now I'm going to finish my cup of tea and go to bed.

 

[Amonet]

I'm with you Greg. I'm all for transparency in reporting, but I think it's irresponsible of media to put out these sensationalized headlines. How about they provide solid information to a nervous public?

I think the problem isn't as much with what the scientist said, but the way the DM has reported it.

I think what he said needed analysis rather than that big headline.

In reality what he's saying is that if we didn't have flu every year, didn't have a vaccine for it, didn't have hospitals prepared for x number of flu cases per year, then we could theoretically see that number of deaths over a several year period from flu.

And what governments need to do is to be aware of the worst case scenarios, and how important it is for governments and healthcare systems to take action to ensure the actual figures will be a lot less than the worst case scenario figures.

And it's not just national and federal governments, it's also local government, industry, businesses of varying sizes that need to be aware that what they do can make a difference.

I think often people have distrust in "well hardly anything happened, but it 'could' have been far worse if we hadn't spend money on preparedness and action".

Though there might sometimes be good reasons to feel distrust in that, it's also the preference when there is a great threat like this, and if governments aren't aware of what 'could' happen, they might not be able to take enough action or spend enough money in prevention.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Nothing is leveling off here yet. I remember when no one had it in HK, Singapore or Japan. And now they are saying they aren't going to be able to control it coming here either. The goal as mentioned in that transcript above..was that CDC or WHO? The goal is just blunting the effects here.

I believe you are speaking to my transcription of the WHO daily meeting Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4 where I transcribed "The goal of the joint meeting is to determine next steps in the response and prepare it's activities in China and globally."

That is the WHO goal of the team of 12 experts and others that are being sent to China this weekend to work with them.

ETA: This was the paragraph that line appeared in

"WHO team to touch down this weekend. China mission will include 12 international and WHO experts and a similar number of country counterparts from China. The China mission will include in-depth workshops, data review with the principle ministries, a key meeting with statisticians, and field visits in three provinces to understand the application and impact of response at provincial and country levels including urban and rural settings. The goal of the joint meeting is to determine next steps in the response and prepare it's activities in China and globally. Particular attention will be paid to the transmission of the virus, the severity of disease, and the impact of ongoing response measures. This will help the world community to prepare health systems and health workers for possible outbreaks."

ETA: If anyone wants to see "real" WHO daily meeting transcripts, they can go to this site as I just do on the fly typing really fast and furious. These are usually up 1-2 days after the daily WHO press briefings. Press briefings has the listing of all of them to date,

and this is the latest one published at this moment

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-full-press-conference-13feb2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=b5435aa2_2

 

[Amonet]

CDC rolling out community based labs in 5 major cities to do community based screening. They will roll out more after that for national surveillance.
"Justifying the move, CDC officials said that there could be undetected cases of the mysterious illness in communities across the US, as the country experiences a dramatic spike in flu as the season approaches its halfway point."

I think this is a very good move so that they can hopefully find any minor outbreaks before they get too bad.

 

[Amonet]

A 2nd Japanese doctor with COVID19. They really don't seem to be able to prevent spread among the people I expect to be the most knowledgeable and putting the most effort into not catching it.

Twitter

I think the bigger problem isn't doctors and nurses treating known cases, but when a doctor has a patient come in with a cough or flu symptoms, in the normal environment a doctor isn't suited up when they're examining those patients. Even surgeons are usually only wearing the masks and gowns in surgery, but outside the theatre they visit patients on wards with no more precautions than washing hands between physical exams of patients.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I think this is a very good move so that they can hopefully find any minor outbreaks before they get too bad.

Thanks so much for your eloquent and level headed posts that you continually share with us. I was wondering where these cities were, so I'm doing a cut/paste of the CDC transcript. (It's like with trials and cases here, I prefer to see/read LE stuff - especially in Florida - vs. reading MSM interpretation which is often misleading or wrong)

Sorry for the all caps, but I'm not taking the time to correct from the all caps they did in the transcription they did I wanted to see if they correlated with that very very early on publication that I posted in first thread talking about statistically where would cases be found in US due to airline travel from the epicenter. I think it does, although I can't seem to quickly find that map/source that I did earlier. Take note - this is what the media picked up on to say that CDC says it's already possibly spreading here

"FIRST, YESTERDAY, SECRETARY AZAR MENTIONED THAT THE CDC HAS BEGUN WORKING WITH FIVE PUBLIC HEALTH LABS TO CONDUCT COMMUNITY BASED INFLUENZA BASED SURVEILLANCE SO WE CAN TEST THOSE WITH FLU LIKE SYMPTOMS FOR NOVEL CORONAVIRUS. THOSE PUBLIC HEALTH LABS ARE IN LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, CHICAGO AND NEW YORK CITY AND I WANT TO THANK THEM FOR THEIR PARTICIPATION, COLLABORATION AND SUPPORT. THIS IS JUST THE STARTING POINT AND WE PLAN TO EXPAND TO MORE SITES IN THE COMING WEEKS UNTIL WE HAVE NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE. THIS IS LEVERAGING OUR EXISTING INFLUENZA AND VIRAL RESPIRATORY SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS. THIS IS AN EXTRA LAYER OF OUR RESPONSE THAT WILL HELP US DETECT IF AND WHEN THIS VIRUS IS SPEADING IN THE COMMUNITY. ALL OF OUR EFFORTS NOW ARE TO PREVENT THE SUSTAINED SPREAD OF THE VIRUS IS IN OUR COMMUNITY BUT WE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL SPREAD. RESULTS FROM THIS SURVEILLANCE WOULD BE AN EARLY WARNING SIGNAL TO TRIGGER A CHANGE IN OUR RESPONSE STRATEGY.

Transcript for CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19 | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC

 

[Pi Thoughts]

In offices across Asia, desks are empty and the phones are quiet, as the region grapples with a deadly virus.

In major hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore, shops are shuttered, public facilities are closed, and there are few people wandering the usually-bustling financial districts.
Instead, millions of people are holed up in their apartments, in what may be the world's biggest work-from-home experiment.

In an attempt to limit social contact to slow the spread of the virus, known officially as Covid-19, millions of employees in China and other affected areas are currently working from home.

For some employees, like teachers who have conducted classes digitally for weeks, working from home can be a nightmare.

But in other sectors, this unexpected experiment has been so well received that employers are considering adopting it as a more permanent measure. For those who advocate more flexible working options, the past few weeks mark a possible step toward widespread -- and long-awaited -- reform.
Coronavirus triggers world's biggest work-from-home experiment - CNN

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Thanks so much for your eloquent and level headed posts that you continually share with us. I was wondering where these cities were, so I'm doing a cut/paste of the CDC transcript. (It's like with trials and cases here, I prefer to see/read LE stuff - especially in Florida - vs. reading MSM interpretation which is often misleading or wrong)

Sorry for the all caps, but I'm not taking the time to correct from the all caps they did in the transcription they did I wanted to see if they correlated with that very very early on publication that I posted in first thread talking about statistically where would cases be found in US due to airline travel from the epicenter. I think it does, although I can't seem to quickly find that map/source that I did earlier. Take note - this is what the media picked up on to say that CDC says it's already possibly spreading here

"FIRST, YESTERDAY, SECRETARY AZAR MENTIONED THAT THE CDC HAS BEGUN WORKING WITH FIVE PUBLIC HEALTH LABS TO CONDUCT COMMUNITY BASED INFLUENZA BASED SURVEILLANCE SO WE CAN TEST THOSE WITH FLU LIKE SYMPTOMS FOR NOVEL CORONAVIRUS. THOSE PUBLIC HEALTH LABS ARE IN LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, CHICAGO AND NEW YORK CITY AND I WANT TO THANK THEM FOR THEIR PARTICIPATION, COLLABORATION AND SUPPORT. THIS IS JUST THE STARTING POINT AND WE PLAN TO EXPAND TO MORE SITES IN THE COMING WEEKS UNTIL WE HAVE NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE. THIS IS LEVERAGING OUR EXISTING INFLUENZA AND VIRAL RESPIRATORY SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS. THIS IS AN EXTRA LAYER OF OUR RESPONSE THAT WILL HELP US DETECT IF AND WHEN THIS VIRUS IS SPEADING IN THE COMMUNITY. ALL OF OUR EFFORTS NOW ARE TO PREVENT THE SUSTAINED SPREAD OF THE VIRUS IS IN OUR COMMUNITY BUT WE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL SPREAD. RESULTS FROM THIS SURVEILLANCE WOULD BE AN EARLY WARNING SIGNAL TO TRIGGER A CHANGE IN OUR RESPONSE STRATEGY.

Transcript for CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19 | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC

I found the original statistical from way back map of where statisticians said potential folks would potentially bring the virus into the US from the hot zone.

LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, CHICAGO AND NEW YORK CITY were the cities that CDC in above post said that they were doing extra surveillance on samples sent to their normal labs for flu surveillance. Well well, spot on.

Those five are all among the biggest "targets". The three that were on this map that aren't on CDC list are Washington and Houston and Honolulu. The attached below has more info of interest now that I look back, not only the map just posted.. MOO

Source: public health from Johns Hopkins
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV ncov-model-2 – CSSE

"This work builds on our previous analysis posted on January 26. We implemented a previously published model that integrates both outbreak dynamics and outbreak control into a decision-support tool for mitigating infectious disease pandemics at the onset of an outbreak through border control to evaluate the 2019-nCoV epidemic. A stochastic metapopulation epidemic simulation tool is used to simulate global outbreak dynamics, and the border control mechanism considered is passenger screening upon arrival at airports (entry screening), which is used to identify infected or at-risk individuals."

Boy, were they spot on!

Hmm, this was in it also, have we heard nothing from South America at all? It's projected on this map. Santiago Chile, Buenos Aires Argentina, Rio de Janeiro Brazil, Caracas Venezuela. I do believe SGHTF in some countries and spread from there with tourism/business throughout the world from there with secondary/tertiary etc infections because they weren't monitoring or surveilled or halted flights from China, and they will not have the resources (China #2 economic in the world, they have the $$) to combat at all.

 

[KALI]

Overreacting? Are you joking China?
YOUR COUNTRY has 100's of years of hiding truths and downright lying.
Yet, we should believe what you say now?
We don't believe you, or your numbers.
No country does.
Yes. The world doesn't believe you.
You reap what you sow.
We will continue to protect our citizens, even if it means financial hardship for China.
We're not overreacting China.
Until we have done our own research, YOU are not going to dictate or scold us on how to protect our people.
Where are the journalists that you've made dissapear???
The world does not trust anything you say.
You are proven liars.

China has hit out at countries for 'overreacting' to the killer coronavirus despite it having so far killed more than 1,500 people.

A top Chinese official defended his country's management of the epidemic, while acknowledging that the coronavirus is a 'deep challenge'.

In a wide-ranging interview with Reuters, State Councillor Wang Yi said: "The epidemic overall is under control. The epidemic is truly sudden. It has brought a challenge to China and the world."

"We've taken such complete prevention and control efforts, efforts that are so comprehensive, that I can't see any other country that can do this."

China slams West for coronavirus 'overreaction' as death toll soars past 1,500

 

[Amonet]

I found the original statistical from way back map of where statisticians said potential folks would potentially bring the virus into the US from the hot zone.

LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, CHICAGO AND NEW YORK CITY were the cities that CDC in above post said that they were doing extra surveillance on samples sent to their normal labs for flu surveillance. Well well, spot on.

Those five are all among the biggest "targets". The three that were on this map that aren't on CDC list are Washington and Houston and Honolulu. The attached below has more info of interest now that I look back, not only the map just posted.. MOO

Source: public health from Johns Hopkins
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV ncov-model-2 – CSSE

"This work builds on our previous analysis posted on January 26. We implemented a previously published model that integrates both outbreak dynamics and outbreak control into a decision-support tool for mitigating infectious disease pandemics at the onset of an outbreak through border control to evaluate the 2019-nCoV epidemic. A stochastic metapopulation epidemic simulation tool is used to simulate global outbreak dynamics, and the border control mechanism considered is passenger screening upon arrival at airports (entry screening), which is used to identify infected or at-risk individuals."

Boy, were they spot on!

Hmm, this was in it also, have we heard nothing from South America at all? It's projected on this map. Santiago Chile, Buenos Aires Argentina, Rio de Janeiro Brazil, Caracas Venezuela.

There are a few other countries that haven't reported cases yet in Europe, but the projections there say that, like S. America and Indonesia, it's likely to happen at some point.

Hawaii is another state that hasn't yet had a case, isn't it?

 

[dixiegirl1035]

There are a few other countries that haven't reported cases yet in Europe, but the projections there say that, like S. America and Indonesia, it's likely to happen at some point.

Hawaii is another state that hasn't yet had a case, isn't it?

Yep, that is why I think about what other countries have in existence already surveillance to monitor and catch like China and US has. As to HI, I have not heard of one. (O/T Vallow case here at WS - Chad and Lori Daybell are my vote to get it first on Hawaii and be quarantined.. gawd..did you see the Dateline special tonight.. lots of new info!)

 

[Amonet]

According to this story, after a 92 year old man in China recovered from Covid-19 infection, a 96 year old lady (also in China) has recovered enough to be taken out of ICU, had two negative tests, and is now being transferred to a local hospital for care until she can go home.

China's 'oldest coronavirus patient', 96, recovers after being treated in ICU for three days | Daily Mail Online

 

[gregjrichards]

According to this story, after a 92 year old man in China recovered from Covid-19 infection, a 96 year old lady (also in China) has recovered enough to be taken out of ICU, had two negative tests, and is now being transferred to a local hospital for care until she can go home.

China's 'oldest coronavirus patient', 96, recovers after being treated in ICU for three days | Daily Mail Online

Wow that’s incredible it’s lovely to read some good news involving the virus for a change. I hope they recover well from their ordeal.

 

[Amonet]

According to this BBC article, the fashion and clothing industry is anticipating taking a hit from the Covid-19 outbreak. Those who are based in the UK or other countries outside China might still have a buyer-base in China, but with the lockdowns people either can't go out shopping or aren't so much interested in shopping for clothes at the moment (understandably).

And for sales over here, a lot of clothes are made in China, stores would normally be getting rid of their remaining winter clothing stocks and getting ready to put spring/summer collections on sale, but these could be delayed due to factory closures in China.

Aside from my concern for people's jobs, to be honest new clothes aren't my biggest concern right now, either. Not that I am a fashionista in the first place.

Global fashion industry facing a 'nightmare'

 

[dixiegirl1035]

@Amonet Interesting as just above we were discussing Hawaii. Seems a man from Japan was in HI for a while, and was then dx as having COVID-19 upon return.

Visitor who had ‘cold-like symptoms’ in Hawaii diagnosed with coronavirus in Japan

https://nypost.com/2020/02/15/hawai...nt-vacationer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

The man, who is in his 60s, spent 11 days in The Aloha State, along with his wife, before returning to Japan on Feb. 7, according to The Honolulu Star Advertiser. He was taken via ambulance to a hospital in Japan on Thursday; the positive test results were delivered Friday, the report said. Hawaii currently has no known coronavirus cases, and officials there are now scrambling to locate people that came into contact with the man during his time in Honolulu and Maui. The man began showing symptoms of illness on Feb. 3 — the couple’s second week of vacation — while staying at a time-share on the island of Oahu. Since returning to Japan, the man was hospitalized two prior times for fever and pneumonia but was only admitted on his third trip to the hospital, according to The New York Times. Hawaii Department of Health’s state epidemiologist, Dr. Sarah Park, said the man likely contracted the coronavirus before or en route to Hawaii.

ETA: COVID-19 | Hawaii County, HI

 

[RobinCAL]

Virus Outbreak: French Health Minister confirms a Chinese tourist in France has died of coronavirus which is the first fatality in Europe

 

[Tadpole12]

Chinese banks disinfect banknotes to stop spread of coronavirus

Chinese banks disinfect banknotes to stop spread of coronavirus

"Banks use ultraviolet light or high temperatures to disinfect yuan bills,
then seal and store the cash for seven to 14 days - depending on the severity of the outbreak in a particular region - before recirculating them..."