Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #5

[dotr]

**Warning Distressing Content & images at link**

Chinese officials 'round up and execute villagers' pets to stop the spread of coronavirus' despite WHO experts saying the disease cannot be spread to animals

Chinese officials continue to beat dogs to death in the name of fighting coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

It has often been noted that many killers begin with acts of horrific cruelty to animals before moving on to humans, hmmm might explain a lot...
imo. speculation.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Maybe this link?
Statistics, Decision Making, And Containing COVID-19 With Unreliable Diagnostic Tests
''How false-negatives in diagnostic testing lead to the release of infected people, motivate extreme containment measures have been implemented, explain why official figures are too low. The COVID-19 outbreak, explained with Bayes’ Rule.''

''A doctor would understand that COVID-19 is highly contagious and lethal, and thus, their level of acceptable risk would be very low.

Suppose they mistook an unreliable test for a reliable test. Their initial belief of 50% probability would drop to an actual 40% probability of infection, while in their mind, it would be 2% because they assumed that the test was reliable. If they went on to release the patient, this would potentially have disastrous consequences.

This is why the tools used in the clinic are backed by research. Doctors need certainty about what their tools are and aren’t capable of.

Checking multiple times with multiple tests.
If a doctor knows about the unreliability of a test and trusts their own judgement, then a single negative test result will not convince them. The doctor will dismiss the test result as an error.

How many negative test results does it take to convince the doctor?

Assume that if the probability is reduced to less than 5%, then the doctor will be sufficiently convinced that there is no infection.

After a clinical examination, a doctor believes that a patient has 50% probability of having COVID-19. He knows that the diagnostic test is unreliable, with 40% sensitivity and 90% specificity, and so he orders a series of diagnostic tests.''

Oh, ok. Not a paper just someone interviewed by media starting the sentence with "suppose, followed by if, assume, assume"

Thanks

 

[JerseyGirl]

WHO expects early trial results of potential coronavirus treatments in 3 weeks

Preliminary results from two clinical trials testing potential treatments for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected in three weeks, the World Health Organization said Thursday.

One trial combines HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir, while the other is testing U.S.-based biotech Gilead Sciences’ antiviral Remdesivir.

Coronavirus live updates: Global air travel set to decline, FBI stocks up on hand sanitizer and masks

 

[Henry2326]

Thanks to Henry who prompted me to look into it and find that chart last night and put it together. If you have the time and history to retrieve, can you give a link to where the test was 40% false negative as I'd like to view. TIA so very much.

Nice job....we all understand it better.

 

[dotr]

Video
Feb 20 2020
''Coronavirus: Walking through Beijing's near-empty streets
Movement for much of China's population of 1.4 billion people is, to some extent, restricted in an attempt to slow the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus.

The lockdown is most strict in Hubei province, where the outbreak started, but elsewhere there are compulsory quarantine periods and people are just not stepping out much.

Some businesses remain closed and life is anything but normal''.

China correspondent Stephen McDonell donned his face mask and took to Beijing’s all-but-empty streets to see how people are coping.

Filmed and edited by Ed Lawrence.

• 20 Feb 2020

 

[gngr~snap]

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We were taught in nursing school, that droplet is like a pump nozzle fine mist sprayed and airborne is like opening a bottle of baby powder and squeezing it really hard.
The visual was clear how the air and surfaces around the powder were covered.
That was over 30 years ago, so the definition may be a little different now.
Moo

 

[Tadpole12]

Video
Feb 20 2020
''Coronavirus: Walking through Beijing's near-empty streets
Movement for much of China's population of 1.4 billion people is, to some extent, restricted in an attempt to slow the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus.

The lockdown is most strict in Hubei province, where the outbreak started, but elsewhere there are compulsory quarantine periods and people are just not stepping out much.

Some businesses remain closed and life is anything but normal''.

China correspondent Stephen McDonell donned his face mask and took to Beijing’s all-but-empty streets to see how people are coping.

Filmed and edited by Ed Lawrence.

• 20 Feb 2020

Walking through Beijing's near-empty streets

 

[Ruthbullock]

Walking through Beijing's near-empty streets

That reporter would make me feel
Uneasy- I know he’s just doing normal body language of leaning forwards to show people he is interested, but still ...

 

[dotr]

Walking through Beijing's near-empty streets

Thanks for the link Tadpole12!

 

[Tadpole12]

Confusion over coronavirus case count in China muddies picture of spread

"Every time you change the case definition, that means you have to reset in terms of what you're actually looking at," said Michael Osterholm director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. I think between the inability to determine the actual number of people infected and how cases are now being called a case means at best you can get trend data, possibly, but not more than that."

 

[dixiegirl1035]

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ETA- he talks about news today that Chinese have confirmed that it is not only droplet shared, it is Airborne shared. Very very bad news. That means it can travel great distances. Not just two meters. ( ETA: and also, it means that it is sooooo small it can go directly to the bottom parts of the lungs.)

He also talks about news today out of Hong Kong, that verifies it can go through shared sewer system.

Put those both together guys and you have what happened on board the princess. A shared sewer system on the ship which creates lot of aerosolization when flushed especially if flushed when the toilet seat is left open.

That means fecal to mucus route, think Airline toilets, bus toilets Etc iirc it was told to the evacuees for the us that they were not allowed to use the toilet on the bus and had to get off the bus to use it. I don't know anything about the airplane for the toilet use for the evacuees.

He also speaks about the Japanese that were let off the ship to go home use public transportation. Including buses and planes and is worried more about those versus evacuees from other countries. He does not understand the Japanese decisions. His words was it's a debacle and/or catastrophe

( also reminds me of David Ables video where he was talking about they were sealing up the air vents outside everybody's room.)

What came out is confirmation today from the Chinese and Hong Kong, all of us I think new but just was not confirmed with evidence as the WHO would say.

Also it speaks to the accommodations of people who have been evacuated and what types of facilities they are staying at. We know that the hospital and isolation rooms in Omaha that six people are at have all negative ventilation, and I would believe that most of the hospitals would be putting them into negative pressure ventilation rooms also, but that's about the only people that I would think did.

ETA This guy had feedback from head of WHO, Dr Pedras, that told him "nice video" on another one

ETA He's now more firm in his feeling now it will be pandemic - (back to the 60% of the world theory?) A lot depends on how we are prepared to deal with those that are severe/critically ill once it's a pandemic. Who has those resources?

 

[dotr]

Maybe they thought the alcohol would protect them? rbbm. lol.
Ukrainians hurl stones at evacuees from China
February 20, 2020 4:43PM EST
''NOVI SANZHARY, Ukraine - Ukraine's effort to quarantine more than 70 people evacuated from China over the new virus outbreak plunged into chaos Thursday as local residents opposing the move hurled stones at the evacuees and engaged in violent clashes with police.

Officials deplored the violence and the country's health minister pledged to share evacuees' quarantine for two weeks in a bid to reassure protesters who fear they'll be infected.

Buses carrying evacuees were finally able to reach the designated place of quarantine after hours of clashes. The masked evacuees, exhausted by the long journey, were peeking through bus windows as they drove slowly under a heavy police escort.

Photos

Ukrainian riot police prepare to push back protesters, who planned to stop buses carrying passengers evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, outside Novi Sarzhany, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020. Several hundred residents in Ukraine's Poltava region protested to stop officials from quarantining the evacuees in their village because they feared becoming infected. Demonstrators put up road blocks and burned tires, while Ukrainian media reported that there were clashes with police, and more than 10 people were detained. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)


Ukrainian passengers evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, look though a bus window outside Novi Sarzhany, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020. Several hundred residents in Ukraine's Poltava region protested to stop officials from quarantining the evacuees in their village because they feared becoming infected. Demonstrators put up road blocks and burned tires, while Ukrainian media reported that there were clashes with police, and more than 10 people were detained. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Stones shattered a window in one of the buses, but the evacuees appeared unhurt.

Since the early morning, several hundred residents of the village of Novi Sanzhary in Ukraine's central Poltava region had cut the road to a sanitarium intended to host the evacuees, fearing they could become infected. Demonstrators, some of whom appeared drunk, put up road blocks, burned tires and clashed with riot police who moved to clear access. One protester tried to ram police lines with his car.''

 

[MJPeony]

Coronavirus live updates: Facebook, PlayStation, AT&T pull out of SF conferences, California has thousands in home quarantine

A few things to note in that is article:

- 1st diagnosed CV patient in San Francisco Bay Area has recovered and is now out of quarantine.

- Facebook has pulled out another conference in March

- AT &T has also pulled out of a conference

- roughly 7,000 people in California have been asked to “self-quarantine” since February 4th if they have entered the country from China.

 

[Hatfield]

Confusion over coronavirus case count in China muddies picture of spread

"Every time you change the case definition, that means you have to reset in terms of what you're actually looking at," said Michael Osterholm director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. I think between the inability to determine the actual number of people infected and how cases are now being called a case means at best you can get trend data, possibly, but not more than that."

Finally, someone with clout is saying the same thing we have been saying for days now about China changing the "counting rules".

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"

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[Hatfield]

Maybe they thought the alcohol would protect them? rbbm. lol.
Ukrainians hurl stones at evacuees from China
February 20, 2020 4:43PM EST
''NOVI SANZHARY, Ukraine - Ukraine's effort to quarantine more than 70 people evacuated from China over the new virus outbreak plunged into chaos Thursday as local residents opposing the move hurled stones at the evacuees and engaged in violent clashes with police.

Officials deplored the violence and the country's health minister pledged to share evacuees' quarantine for two weeks in a bid to reassure protesters who fear they'll be infected.

Buses carrying evacuees were finally able to reach the designated place of quarantine after hours of clashes. The masked evacuees, exhausted by the long journey, were peeking through bus windows as they drove slowly under a heavy police escort.

Photos

Ukrainian riot police prepare to push back protesters, who planned to stop buses carrying passengers evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, outside Novi Sarzhany, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020. Several hundred residents in Ukraine's Poltava region protested to stop officials from quarantining the evacuees in their village because they feared becoming infected. Demonstrators put up road blocks and burned tires, while Ukrainian media reported that there were clashes with police, and more than 10 people were detained. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)


Ukrainian passengers evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, look though a bus window outside Novi Sarzhany, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020. Several hundred residents in Ukraine's Poltava region protested to stop officials from quarantining the evacuees in their village because they feared becoming infected. Demonstrators put up road blocks and burned tires, while Ukrainian media reported that there were clashes with police, and more than 10 people were detained. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Stones shattered a window in one of the buses, but the evacuees appeared unhurt.

Since the early morning, several hundred residents of the village of Novi Sanzhary in Ukraine's central Poltava region had cut the road to a sanitarium intended to host the evacuees, fearing they could become infected. Demonstrators, some of whom appeared drunk, put up road blocks, burned tires and clashed with riot police who moved to clear access. One protester tried to ram police lines with his car.''

Holy crap. The beginnings of riots in the streets as we feared may happen.

 

[Hatfield]

WHO expects early trial results of potential coronavirus treatments in 3 weeks

Preliminary results from two clinical trials testing potential treatments for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected in three weeks, the World Health Organization said Thursday.

One trial combines HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir, while the other is testing U.S.-based biotech Gilead Sciences’ antiviral Remdesivir.

Coronavirus live updates: Global air travel set to decline, FBI stocks up on hand sanitizer and masks

I have heard Tamiflu (oseltamivir) helps a lot for people that catch the flu so long as you give it to a person early enough. The interesting thing with the drugs they mention above is I think they must be similar in some ways to Tamiflu because Tamiflu = (oseltamivir), and notice the names of the drugs they are mentioning.

They all have an ending similar to "oseltamivir". At least the "ivir" part is very similar. Wondering if their chemical makeup is similar to Tamiflu in some ways?

The drugs they mention sound close for the ending part:
Lopinavir
Ritonavir
antiviral Remdesivir

 

[dixiegirl1035]

He's doing a live chat right now, taking questions from chat, in addition to doing one Saturday 2 p.m. eastern time

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[Henry2326]

• Feb. 20, 2020Updated 6:14 a.m. ETS

SEOUL — South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix said on Thursday that 800 of its workers had quarantined themselves as a precautionary measure to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, but its production in the city of Icheon has not been affected.

The move came after one trainee had close contact with a virus patient in the southeastern city of Daegu, the epicenter of an outbreak in South Korea.


SK Hynix, the world's No.2 memory chipmaker which counts Apple Inc and Huawei among its customers, said another trainee also had symptoms of pneumonia. The two trainees tested negative for the virus, but will undergo a second test.

A surge in confirmed cases linked to a local church in Daegu this week sparked fears of wider transmission.

South Korea's Hynix Says 800 Workers to Stay Home After Trainee Had Contact With Virus Patient

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I have heard Tamiflu (oseltamivir) helps a lot for people that catch the flu so long as you give it to a person early enough. The interesting thing with the drugs they mention above is I think they must be similar in some ways to Tamiflu because Tamiflu = (oseltamivir), and notice the names of the drugs they are mentioning.

They all have an ending similar to "oseltamivir". At least the "ivir" part is very similar. Wondering if their chemical makeup is similar to Tamiflu in some ways?

The drugs they mention sound close for the ending part:
Lopinavir
Ritonavir
antiviral Remdesivir

I had not noticed that, but bingo it looks like you are right. Vir = virus?

 

[MJPeony]

Twitter
@BNOdesk

Today’s latest from Hubei:

411 new cases
115 new deaths