Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #101

[MrX]

Covid cases are surging in Europe. America is in denial about what lies in store for it | Eric Topol

Interesting article and it does sound like "Deja vu all over again." Florida and Texas had their spikes and will be open and unregulated, while the north east and upper midwest will get hit soon, and clamp down, perhaps causing another migration. I really hoped and thought we were past this.

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Covid cases are surging in Europe. America is in denial about what lies in store for it | Eric Topol

Yeah, it's grim here in Europe. Ireland has over 92% of adults fully vaccinated but case numbers are surging and we're probably heading for another winter lockdown.

Waterford is an interesting case study with 99.5% of adults vaccinated and a bad Covid surge.

COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?

Waterford, in south-eastern Ireland, epitomises the country's coronavirus conundrum. Why is there a surge in COVID-19 cases in a nation where around 92% of all adults are fully vaccinated?

A massive 99.5% of adults over the age of 18 in Co Waterford are double-jabbed. That's thought to be one of the highest rates of any region anywhere in the world.

But, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, the county now tops the national infection league table, with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,294 per 100,000.

(Explanations and theories at link)

 

[jjenny]

I really hope we got the meds approved soon. Seems like we are going to need to have them.

 

[Cool Cats]

I really hope we got the meds approved soon. Seems like we are going to need to have them.

These?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-merck-pfizer-covid-antiviral-drugs.html

Merck v Pfizer: How the two new COVID antiviral drugs work and will be used

We've waited 20 months for a medicine to blunt the coronavirus, and now two have appeared. Earlier this month, the UK medicines regulator approved molnupiravir, the COVID antiviral developed by Merck and Ridgeback Therapeutics. Among adults with mild to moderate COVID who were at risk of developing serious disease, it cut the chances of being hospitalized or dying in half.

Now, Pfizer has released results from trials of its antiviral drug—paxlovid. These suggest it reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% among those most vulnerable to COVID

 

[musicaljoke]

I don't see an issue with anti-vaxxers getting vaxxed then trying to detox with a soak bath. They should go for it. Throw in some ivermectin for good measure.

Oh yes, this is indeed a very good idea. I understand that putting a cup of fresh green cedar into the bath is an excellent way to detox.

I wonder if I could market that restorative.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Oh yes, this is indeed a very good idea. I understand that putting a cup of fresh green cedar into the bath is an excellent way to detox.

I wonder if I could market that restorative.

Cedar Enzyme Bath - Osmosis Day Spa Sanctuary

 

[jjenny]

These?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-merck-pfizer-covid-antiviral-drugs.html

Merck v Pfizer: How the two new COVID antiviral drugs work and will be used

We've waited 20 months for a medicine to blunt the coronavirus, and now two have appeared. Earlier this month, the UK medicines regulator approved molnupiravir, the COVID antiviral developed by Merck and Ridgeback Therapeutics. Among adults with mild to moderate COVID who were at risk of developing serious disease, it cut the chances of being hospitalized or dying in half.

Now, Pfizer has released results from trials of its antiviral drug—paxlovid. These suggest it reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% among those most vulnerable to COVID

Yep, those are the meds. I hope they are approved soon.

 

[Cool Cats]

'Stretched too thin': With staff 'exhausted,' schools cancel class or return to remote learning

School districts across the nation are temporarily closing or switching back to remote learning as school administrators struggle with empty classrooms, driverless buses and understaffed cafeterias caused by widespread teacher exhaustion, coronavirus concerns and the Great Resignation.

Michigan has in recent weeks seen at least eight schools shut down or return to online learning because of staff shortages. In Florida, Brevard Public Schools said Wednesday it would extend its Thanksgiving break, while public schools in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, gave teachers and students an extra day off for Veterans Day.

In Bellevue, Washington, near Seattle, administrators preemptively closed schools Friday because so many teachers are taking the day off after the Veterans Day holiday, giving them a four-day weekend.

In Boulder, Colorado, the school district is closing Friday because at least 486 teachers are taking the day off, leaving about 200 classrooms empty, said spokesman Randy Barber.

Barber said many subs, drivers and cafeteria workers are choosing to find work with less COVID-19 exposure and the chance for better pay. On the other side of Denver from Boulder, the Adams 12 Five Star School District also canceled classes Friday, citing a lack of substitutes, who earn $180 daily.

Denver Public Schools has switched three schools to remote learning for the rest of this week and will close all schools on Nov. 19 for a preemptive mental health day, starting Thanksgiving break early for 92,000 students.

A similar RAND study conducted in February found that stress was the most common reason given for teachers quitting, at nearly double the rate as complaints about low pay. And of those teachers who did quit, 33% of them took jobs with no health insurance or retirement benefits – a sign of how much they wanted to leave the classroom.

 

[Cool Cats]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/global-shortage-of-workers-whats-going-on-experts-explain.html

There are millions of jobs, but a shortage of workers: Economists explain why that’s worrying

The problem is not just a U.S. one, with many countries around the world experiencing a shortage of workers. It matters because it’s exacerbating supply chain disruptions around the globe, with key industries struggling to regain momentum due to a lack of workers or raw materials.

This disrupts both local and global production and supply networks, hampering economic growth and causing product and service shortages for consumers.

Ed Vasicek: Worker shortages are hard work

We recently spent some time at a state park lodge. Three women covered four positions: hostess, waitress, check-out and cook. They hustled, changed hats and made it work. But patrons had to be willing to wait.

We are not accustomed to having to wait, and we are not used to hearing “sorry; this is out of stock and we do not know when or if it will be back in stock.” We feel entitled to get what we want, and to have it now.

Most Americans are responding to this challenge with patience, while others highlight their demanding side, abusing clerks and workers in the process. This adds to the shortage, as workers are more prone to quit after repeated encounters with irate customers.

Does this worker shortage seem alien to you? It does to me. But it is the reality to which we must adjust.

 

[SouthAussie]

Yeah, it's grim here in Europe. Ireland has over 92% of adults fully vaccinated but case numbers are surging and we're probably heading for another winter lockdown.

Waterford is an interesting case study with 99.5% of adults vaccinated and a bad Covid surge.

COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?

Waterford, in south-eastern Ireland, epitomises the country's coronavirus conundrum. Why is there a surge in COVID-19 cases in a nation where around 92% of all adults are fully vaccinated?

A massive 99.5% of adults over the age of 18 in Co Waterford are double-jabbed. That's thought to be one of the highest rates of any region anywhere in the world.

But, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, the county now tops the national infection league table, with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,294 per 100,000.

(Explanations and theories at link)

From reading your linked article, it seems that the vaccines are doing their job though. While infections are rising, the load on the hospitals with covid cases is still manageable.


"The function of the vaccine is to stop illness and death, that's the primary goal, and the vaccines are holding up, it's great."
"Without the vaccines, Ireland would be in a full lockdown now", he argues, "because Delta is so transmissible, the hospitals would be full of COVID patients and all of the evidence supports that."


To me, this is part of the virus becoming endemic but far more manageable, in a highly vaccinated society.

(I am hoping that this is what happens in Australia, as we flip the switch and let the world in. That our high vaccination rate means that we can keep the death rate down.)

 

[Mo Thuairim]

From reading your linked article, it seems that the vaccines are doing their job though. While infections are rising, the load on the hospitals with covid cases is still manageable.

To me, this is part of the virus becoming endemic but far more manageable, in a highly vaccinated society.


"The function of the vaccine is to stop illness and death, that's the primary goal, and the vaccines are holding up, it's great."
"Without the vaccines, Ireland would be in a full lockdown now", he argues, "because Delta is so transmissible, the hospitals would be full of COVID patients and all of the evidence supports that."

Yes, definitely the vaccines are doing their job. It's just because we have poor hospital capacity that the surge may lead to renewed societal restrictions. We would be much worse off without the vaccines but still things are not good. Delta is much harder to deal with than the original type.

ETA: That article is a week or so old and the numbers have risen since so the hospitals are under even more pressure now.

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>
Delta is much harder to deal with than the original type.

Oh yes, I completely agree.
Delta is the strain that finally beat Australia and NZ into submission.
It refused to completely leave our countries (as previous strains did), no matter how hard we locked down, or for how long.
The most we can do with Delta is mitigate the damage.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

UK bucks Europe Covid trend but concern over winter

 

[Mo Thuairim]

UK bucks Europe Covid trend but concern over winter

So interesting HKP. You seem to have greater population immunity over there. We still have legal mask requirements here and a good deal of other restrictions - it sounds much stricter than the UK - but things are still going in the wrong direction here. Hopefully our (so far slow) vaccine booster rollout will help correct things in Ireland.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

So interesting HKP. You seem to have greater population immunity over there. We still have legal mask requirements here and a good deal of other restrictions - it sounds much stricter than the UK - but things are still going in the wrong direction here. Hopefully our (so far slow) vaccine booster rollout will help correct things in Ireland.

I'm not sure Mo, honestly. When I read that article and saw we are behind the Netherlands with vaccines and yet they're considering measures again... The pessimist in me thinks, we're just behind the trend. I'd love to believe we have "better" immunity but I'm not convinced. And I get annoyed with Boris keep on about getting the booster... Nowhere near being offered it yet myself, bring it on then!

I do think it was interesting this week that carers must legally be double vaxxed here now. Not sure all care home managers would agree with me, but that's a positive IMO.

 

[CrimeAway]

I think that the UK was too fast to relax mask rules, and too slow to start vaccinating children. Children and young people who are not vaccinated can be a reservoir of infection, and spread that infection to others who may have waning antibodies and/or who failed to mount a sufficient immune response to vaccination. I still think that the vaccines offer robust protection against severe illness and death for most people. All JMO.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

So interesting HKP. You seem to have greater population immunity over there. We still have legal mask requirements here and a good deal of other restrictions - it sounds much stricter than the UK - but things are still going in the wrong direction here. Hopefully our (so far slow) vaccine booster rollout will help correct things in Ireland.

My late night possibly tipsy from drinking warm Baileys from a mug rambling collections of theories, in no particular order:

The vaccines are wearing off after about 6 months. The U.K. rolled them out early, so now that 6 months is up for our vulnerable, their carers and our 50+ range. Europe is now following our pattern on a similar timescale.

I know a few medical and social care friends age 40-50 who have had COVID in the last month, who are also at the 6/7 month mark as they were higher priority.

I reckon Boris & co gambled on delaying the kids vaccinations to let Covid have a good run round the schools, thereby giving some immunity to millions of teens. I can’t decide if this was intentional or accidental. Probably the latter, though will no doubt claimed as the former. I hope it pays off.

Now it’s a race against the clock to get boosters in arms. I think everyone, regardless of age, should be offered a booster at the 6 month mark, otherwise we run the risk of leaving a “gap” in the armour. I’m in the 40-50 bracket, so will need boostering next month, but there are no plans to do my bracket yet.

So, long story short, I think we’re going to see a higher rate of covid in the 35-55 groups and thereabouts. Anyone whose 6 months is up with no booster, basically. We will be the gap in the armour… right around Christmas. Ho ho ho.

 

[Lilibet]

'Stretched too thin': With staff 'exhausted,' schools cancel class or return to remote learning

School districts across the nation are temporarily closing or switching back to remote learning as school administrators struggle with empty classrooms, driverless buses and understaffed cafeterias caused by widespread teacher exhaustion, coronavirus concerns and the Great Resignation.

Michigan has in recent weeks seen at least eight schools shut down or return to online learning because of staff shortages. In Florida, Brevard Public Schools said Wednesday it would extend its Thanksgiving break, while public schools in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, gave teachers and students an extra day off for Veterans Day.

In Bellevue, Washington, near Seattle, administrators preemptively closed schools Friday because so many teachers are taking the day off after the Veterans Day holiday, giving them a four-day weekend.

In Boulder, Colorado, the school district is closing Friday because at least 486 teachers are taking the day off, leaving about 200 classrooms empty, said spokesman Randy Barber.

Barber said many subs, drivers and cafeteria workers are choosing to find work with less COVID-19 exposure and the chance for better pay. On the other side of Denver from Boulder, the Adams 12 Five Star School District also canceled classes Friday, citing a lack of substitutes, who earn $180 daily.

Denver Public Schools has switched three schools to remote learning for the rest of this week and will close all schools on Nov. 19 for a preemptive mental health day, starting Thanksgiving break early for 92,000 students.

A similar RAND study conducted in February found that stress was the most common reason given for teachers quitting, at nearly double the rate as complaints about low pay. And of those teachers who did quit, 33% of them took jobs with no health insurance or retirement benefits – a sign of how much they wanted to leave the classroom.

I don’t know how I missed this news, but I just found out yesterday that the substitute teacher shortage here in Oregon is so bad that a Bachelor’s degree is no longer required! Despite the need, I don’t think my 77 year old retired teacher husband is going to sign up, even though he misses the kids still 22 years after retiring. It’s really a crisis for education and for the kids.

https://www.oregon.gov/tspc/LIC/Documents/Emergency Substitute License 10-11-2021.pdf
You may be eligible to apply for this license if:
• You have obtained the sponsorship of an Oregon school district, education service district or charter school; and
• You are at least 18 years of age: and
• You are of good moral character, and mental and physical health necessary for employment as an educator.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/12/us/oregon-drops-licensed-substitute-teachers-requirement/index.html

Hoping to help curb what officials are calling an "extraordinary shortage" of substitute teachers across the state, the Oregon Teacher Standards and Practices Commission announced a new rule temporarily dropping the bachelor's degree requirement to become licensed in some cases.

The temporary rule, which is set to expire March 31, allows substitute teacher applicants without a bachelor's degree to be sponsored by a school district, which would also provide them with enhanced support and administrative supervision, according to a joint statement from Dr. Anthony Rosilez, the commission's executive director, and Erika Bare, the commission chair.

 

[zecats]

I don’t know how I missed this news, but I just found out yesterday that the substitute teacher shortage here in Oregon is so bad that a Bachelor’s degree is no longer required! Despite the need, I don’t think my 77 year old retired teacher husband is going to sign up, even though he misses the kids still 22 years after retiring. It’s really a crisis for education and for the kids.

https://www.oregon.gov/tspc/LIC/Documents/Emergency Substitute License 10-11-2021.pdf
You may be eligible to apply for this license if:
• You have obtained the sponsorship of an Oregon school district, education service district or charter school; and
• You are at least 18 years of age: and
• You are of good moral character, and mental and physical health necessary for employment as an educator.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/12/us/oregon-drops-licensed-substitute-teachers-requirement/index.html
Oregon is changing its substitute teacher license rules to combat an 'extraordinary shortage' - CNN

Hoping to help curb what officials are calling an "extraordinary shortage" of substitute teachers across the state, the Oregon Teacher Standards and Practices Commission announced a new rule temporarily dropping the bachelor's degree requirement to become licensed in some cases.

The temporary rule, which is set to expire March 31, allows substitute teacher applicants without a bachelor's degree to be sponsored by a school district, which would also provide them with enhanced support and administrative supervision, according to a joint statement from Dr. Anthony Rosilez, the commission's executive director, and Erika Bare, the commission chair.

In NJ, where I sub (retired teacher here and I sub in the same school where I worked), in order to sub, only 2 years of college is required. Pay is tiered by experience, schooling and degrees and, in my case, retirees from the district receive the highest pay. Still, there is a major shortage of subs and discouragingly, I often get moved to a position I didn't originally accept...or asked to cover another area or class during the would-be prep time. This alone is enough to reduce the number of those willing to work. I'm still doing it, but at a much reduced rate than I have in the past few years.

 

[SouthAussie]

Things have finally calmed a lot in NSW, since Delta got its grip there.
I just read that they had their first day, yesterday, with no covid deaths since 23rd August (almost 3 months ago).
Their vaccination rate is now tremendously good - and recent, so perhaps highly effective at the moment.


Meanwhile New South Wales has seen a slight drop, and the first day with no deaths since August 23.
No new COVID-19 cases in Queensland as infections climb in Victoria