My husband. Who is a very smart man. Tells me that there is more to this story.
He tells me that there is no way, our entire world would go on lockdown with the information we've been given.
I cannot argue with him. Nearly everything makes no sense.
Why does China still have 50 million on lockdown nearly 3 months later?
I'm very worried that our leaders know worse news then they are willing to share with the general public.
Just the news so far has caused panic.
I truly hope that I am not overreacting.
Worried in So. California
Kali
The world is going on lockdown in many areas because of the mathematical projections of what can happen without Non Pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs, we all are doing. Because the worlds population is 7,770,631,490 and as a pandemic without a vaccine yet, no immunity, and no treatments at this time (which may never come to low healthcare countries when folks have ARDS etc...During the Spanish flu, for instance, the death rate ranged from less than 1 percent in some areas to 90 percent in one Alaskan village.)... We posted many of those projections on the first 2 threads.
It is worrisome indeed, and the reason for the lockdowns, NPI's and global education and alarm.
Put the numbers together with a disease that has an R0 of ~4% (
without social distancing and other NPI's that China and other folks are doing with isolation/shutdowns) would require 75% of the population to become infected to reach herd immunity. So, eventually that would mean those 20% infected would need hospitalization eventually. Scientists don't think we may get to that and we won't reach those numbers when a vaccine is created, yet until then...it will potentially grow in exponential waves that we try to push back with NPIs.
Here is a good read...
Covid-19 Is Nothing Like the Spanish Flu
Also, read up on herd immunity vs. R0 at
What is Herd Immunity?
In above, in leiu of vacine immunity - assume immunity due to already had the disease. GAWD forbid if this virus doesn't give lasting immunity with IGg and IGm antibodies!