TOPHER SPIRO
If we avert catastrophe, it will be because governors and mayors are now taking decisive action.
NEW: Dr. Zeke Emanuel and the Center for American Progress are calling on states and cities to immediately:

Ban gatherings >50

Close schools, bars, gyms, movie theaters, libraries where there is community spread

Limit restaurants to 1/2 capacity
State and Local Governments Must Take Much More Aggressive Action Immediately To Slow Spread of the Coronavirus - Center for American Progress
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We're at a tipping point: If transmission is not slowed within the next week, the hospital system will be overwhelmed. The strategy of testing, contact tracing, and containment is no longer an effective response.
We reviewed actions taken by states and cities to date. No state or city has been nearly aggressive enough.
States that have done little or nothing: AK, AZ, AR, GA, HI, IA, KS, MS, MO, MT, NV, NH, OK, SC, SD, TX, VA, WV, WY.
Here's what's at stake.
At the current rate, more than 100 million Americans will become infected, including 9.4 million at the peak of outbreak.
Opinion | How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts Topher Spiro on Twitter
But if states and cities begin aggressive measures TODAY, this number could be reduced to 513,000 infected at the peak.
Topher Spiro on Twitter
According to current estimates, 5% of those infected will require intensive care beds. There are about 98,000 intensive care beds in the United States.
On the current track, these estimates indicate that 470,000 people will require intensive care beds—far more than are available. In reality, this massive shortage will be even worse because these beds will also be needed for other conditions.
But if states and cities begin aggressive measures TODAY, the number of intensive care beds required could be reduced to 26,650.
To keep the chance of at least one infected person being present at a gathering below 1% nationally,
gatherings of >50 people must be banned. This would help reduce the risk of transmission nationally through a national caseload of 66,000 people.
COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner
Bans and closures should be put into effect for at least 2-4 weeks, with potential extensions, to allow health departments enough time to assess the extent of community spread. Congress must enact significant economic relief for small businesses subject to closures.
BREAKING: Anthony Fauci recommends doing whatever it takes:
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