Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #49

[10ofRods]

The FDA has opened the floodgates to allow all sorts of unsupported "tests" to be used in the US. They don't have enough personnel to review the many pages of documentation and data that a test usually requires, so right now all they require are some preliminary forms.

I have reviewed some test validation data on some of these rapid serology tests from China. They are very poorly supported and should not be used.

Remember Spain wasted $400 million on such inadequate and poorly designed tests from China. They had a sensitivity rate of 36%.

That means if 100 patients were positive, the test would only detect 36.
You would be better off flipping a coin. That would be more accurate than a test with a sensitivity rate of only 36%. The specificity was also very poor. They made no effort to correct for any of the other coronaviruses we may come in contact with ( there are 6 others that may be found in humans, at this time)

There are a few more very good tests coming on the market that are made by legitimate US or European laboratory test makers. They are far superior in accuracy and sensitivity than these worthless tests from China.

No, you wouldn't be "better off" flipping a coin. The 36% were positive so some people got useful information. I know what you're trying to say, though.

While you make it sound like the Chinese tests are flawed for some reason specific to China, it turns out that many of the rapid response tests made in the US (at major medical centers) have similar problems. Not as bad as the early ones purchased by Spain, but still way less sensitive than we need to them to be.

Even the best tests available at universities (Stanford, MIT, Harvard) are not 100% sensitive and no one yet knows what that rate is. One respected virologist who specializes in building vaccines says she assumes these tests are 88-90% accurate at best. Each iteration is a bit better than the last, but no nation was able to solve the Ab testing problem right away.

And no one knows whether the tests work well in real populations until they are used in real populations.

If your state is building its own Ab tests from scratch, there will be glitches there too. It's true that the tests being built in the US are better than the ones originally sent out of China, but at the same time, there are many private "test makers" here in the US selling test kits to private individuals who may in fact be using tests on par with the Chinese ones.

Caveat emptor.

 

[cass523]

When will a second wave of the coronavirus hit, and what will it look like?

Even before the first horrific phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course, scientists are worried about the second wave of the disease.

It could crash worse than the first, killing tens of thousands of people who did such a good job of sheltering in place they remain virgin ground for the virus. Or it could be a mere swell, with so many people having been infected without symptoms that levels of immunity are higher than realized.

There is no crystal ball to look to, because so many crucial pieces of information remain missing.

Are people who've had COVID-19 immune? How long does immunity last? Will the virus play out like influenza and the common cold, peaking during cooler months and falling during warmer ones? Is its deadly path undeterred whatever the weather?

Until there’s a vaccine “it’s unfortunately not unlikely that we may see a second wave or even a third wave,” said Peter Marks, director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccines.

“I shudder to think of that, but I think we have to be realistic."

Immunity: Can you get the coronavirus more than once?

Will the coronavirus go away in the summer?

What we do matters

The price of health is eternal vigilance

 

[Deleted member 39678]

The FDA has opened the floodgates to allow all sorts of unsupported "tests" to be used in the US. They don't have enough personnel to review the many pages of documentation and data that a test usually requires, so right now all they require are some preliminary forms.

I have reviewed some test validation data on some of these rapid serology tests from China. They are very poorly supported and should not be used.

Remember Spain wasted $400 million on such inadequate and poorly designed tests from China. They had a sensitivity rate of 36%.

That means if 100 patients were positive, the test would only detect 36.
You would be better off flipping a coin. That would be more accurate than a test with a sensitivity rate of only 36%. The specificity was also very poor. They made no effort to correct for any of the other coronaviruses we may come in contact with ( there are 6 others that may be found in humans, at this time)

There are a few more very good tests coming on the market that are made by legitimate US or European laboratory test makers. They are far superior in accuracy and sensitivity than these worthless tests from China.

Q: What laboratories are offering testing under the policy outlined in Section IV.A of the Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019? (Updated 4/17)
A: As stated in Section IV.A of the FDA's Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019, for laboratories certified under CLIA to perform high-complexity testing, the FDA does not intend to object to the use of validated tests for specimen testing for a reasonable period of time after validation while the laboratory is preparing an EUA request. As noted in the guidance, FDA believes 15 business days is a reasonable period of time to prepare an EUA submission for a test that has already been validated.

Many commercial and healthcare system/academic laboratories have notified the FDA that they have validated their own COVID-19 test and have started patient testing as set forth in Section IV.A of the FDA's Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019. The laboratories listed below have agreed to be identified on the FDA's website. Where the Authorization Status is "FDA Authorized," the FDA reviewed and issued an EUA for the test after notification was given. Where the Authorization Status is shown as "Not FDA Authorized," the FDA has not yet reviewed the laboratory's validation and issued an EUA for the laboratory's test, and the test is included in this list to provide transparency regarding the notifications submitted to FDA. The "Setting for Use" designation of "H" refers to a laboratory certified under CLIA to perform high-complexity testing.

FAQs on Diagnostic Testing for SARS-CoV-2

 

[10ofRods]

I've noticed that some local craigslist 'farm and garden' have ads for plants and other supplies. Maybe there would be less risk of exposure?

Less risk of exposure than Lowe's or Home Depot, for sure. I would certainly call ahead and ask some pertinent questions though. Unless it's mail order. Lots of farm and garden stuff available online.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

Not wishing to offend anybody. I have great respect for all persons in here. But what on Gods green Earth is going on in America?? I am in the UK, and over here, looking from the outside in, I am absolutely horrified at what I see on the News. All my life I have felt like the United Kingdom and the United States are Earthly cousins, bonded by the courage it takes to fight for and save innocent lives. So to see people out on the streets in protest.. totally disregarding their fellow and elderly citizens.. the ones who want to live!!. The ones who have all the correct measures in place to keep themselves from infection. Their actions are criminal. They need to realise, Lockdown is not to punish us but to save us!! Every Country in the World is in the same boat and this behaviour has not been seen in any other Country on this planet! If ever President Trump needed to prove just how great of a power he has, he should exert it right now by hauling every last protestor off to prison! Lockdown is frustrating for all persons of every country. One thing frustrates me more though and that is grown up adults who are unable to abide by simple rules. Especially when lives are at risk X
As ever peeps STAY SAFE. X

 

[Henry2326]

Iowa numbers today: April 19: 389 new COVID-19 cases in Iowa, 1 additional death 389 new positive cases confirmed and 1 more passed. We now have 2, 902 confirmed cases and 75 passed. Of these new numbers today, 84 positive are from Tyson (doesn't say which plants as IMO there are 3 with outbreaks here) and 177 are from National Beef in IMO is in Tama. So that is a total of 261 from those 2 meat plants. Good news is we do have 1, 171 recovered.

IOWA
Both cases and deaths continue to grow....doesnt appear that a peak has been reached in either curve....see files attached.

Positivity rate is 10.4, double a preferred rate of 5.
Tests per 1000 people is 6.6.....experts look for 50.

No plan in sight: Test troubles cloud Trump recovery effort

Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say

 

[zecats]

I hear people coughing walking by and it freaks me out.

A lady just walked by totally messing with her mask, pulling it down, pulling it up, touching her face..

It disturbs me even when one of the yoga instructors (either live stream or YouTube video) is coughing. This has happened a couple times. Obviously I'm not worried about myself, but I sure do wonder if the instructor needs to be checked out.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Not wishing to offend anybody. I have great respect for all persons in here. But what on Gods green Earth is going on in America?? I am in the UK, and over here, looking from the outside in, I am absolutely horrified at what I see on the News. All my life I have felt like the United Kingdom and the United States are Earthly cousins, bonded by the courage it takes to fight for and save innocent lives. So to see people out on the streets in protest.. totally disregarding their fellow and elderly citizens.. the ones who want to live!!. The ones who have all the correct measures in place to keep themselves from infection. Their actions are criminal. They need to realise, Lockdown is not to punish us but to save us!! Every Country in the World is in the same boat and this behaviour has not been seen in any other Country on this planet! If ever President Trump needed to prove just how great of a power he has, he should exert it right now by hauling every last protestor off to prison! Lockdown is frustrating for all persons of every country. One thing frustrates me more though and that is grown up adults who are unable to abide by simple rules. Especially when lives are at risk X
As ever peeps STAY SAFE. X

Short version. We aren't under martial law here. We have states rights, so our President cannot arrest protestors. Our constitution gives us the right to protest. I may not agree with their actions, but whether we like it or not, it's a right.

Jmo

Stay safe!

 

[10ofRods]

Maybe “carrier” isn’t the right word.

I mean asymptomatic people who never knowingly develop the virus. How long can they remain infectious to others?

While asymptomatic transmission may not be the driver in this disease, we know it can happen.

The record so far seems to be 47 days. Also, a new study shows that many are still shedding virus for 17-19 days post-fever, so the 14 day quarantine isn't catching all of those. China of course quarantined people far longer.

In other news, China is getting something of a second wave and they will have some data on whether previously infected people can get this virus again.

 

[Wicked Strong]

Not wishing to offend anybody. I have great respect for all persons in here. But what on Gods green Earth is going on in America?? I am in the UK, and over here, looking from the outside in, I am absolutely horrified at what I see on the News. All my life I have felt like the United Kingdom and the United States are Earthly cousins, bonded by the courage it takes to fight for and save innocent lives. So to see people out on the streets in protest.. totally disregarding their fellow and elderly citizens.. the ones who want to live!!. The ones who have all the correct measures in place to keep themselves from infection. Their actions are criminal. They need to realise, Lockdown is not to punish us but to save us!! Every Country in the World is in the same boat and this behaviour has not been seen in any other Country on this planet! If ever President Trump needed to prove just how great of a power he has, he should exert it right now by hauling every last protestor off to prison! Lockdown is frustrating for all persons of every country. One thing frustrates me more though and that is grown up adults who are unable to abide by simple rules. Especially when lives are at risk X
As ever peeps STAY SAFE. X

I appreciate your sentiments. IMO we are tired of being shut out of everything because of some of the major cities that have too many people, in too small of a space, rule the news, and the perception that the whole US is the same.

I live in a rural area, my state has one of the lower cases of positive virus, as of today, 28 deaths, yet we are locked away looking out our windows. I don't agree lockdown in my area is appropriate, and we are losing our restaurants and bars at an alarming rate. About 1 in 5 are closed permanently in the larger towns, some of our rural towns have only up to 5 businesses and they are closed. The government bailout of small businesses went to the larger cities, the towns with 100 population didn't get anything to help. We are not criminals, we are responsible people who know what to do to preserve our communities.

MOO

 

[BUF]

230 nursing homes in Georgia infected with COVID19! Some states are not releasing this information, some are such as Georgia which lists in this article all of them, their names and addresses etc.

.State agency: Confirmed COVID-19 cases at 230 nursing homes, facilities across Georgia

Wow, they are even including the numbers on those nursing homes.

They finally released the seven page list in Florida, but excluded the numbers. AARP and a lot of pressure elsewhere to just release this.
https://s33330.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LTCF-List.pdf

 

[CSIDreamer]

I hear people coughing walking by and it freaks me out.

A lady just walked by totally messing with her mask, pulling it down, pulling it up, touching her face..

You should hear my allergy cough. I sound like I have some dread disease half the time. Jmo

 

[Henry2326]

I appreciate your sentiments. IMO we are tired of being shut out of everything because of some of the major cities that have too many people, in too small of a space, rule the news, and the perception that the whole US is the same.

I live in a rural area, my state has one of the lower cases of positive virus, as of today, 28 deaths, yet we are locked away looking out our windows. I don't agree lockdown in my area is appropriate, and we are losing our restaurants and bars at an alarming rate. About 1 in 5 are closed permanently in the larger towns, some of our rural towns have only up to 5 businesses and they are closed. The government bailout of small businesses went to the larger cities, the towns with 100 population didn't get anything to help. We are not criminals, we are responsible people who know what to do to preserve our communities.

MOO

Curious what state you are in and area? Would like to see what the data says.

 

[musicaljoke]

Is this post saying prefer the numbers and facts, vs. a visual of the numbers and facts? If one goes to many sites on the internet, one can get confirmation of the decrease. (An R0 less than 1 = the graph and numbers downtown... some indicators are lagging as we have discussed again and again). Or is this post stating "don't believe that R0 decreasing/ is not related to decreasing numbers"? Not sure what this post is wanting as to confirmation, or mistrust in a graph from numbers that are facts? Could this post possibly expound?

The graph was from a tweet with no links back to a recognised, authorative source, so it did not make me confidence that the graph was current and credible.

 

[cass523]

As of April 19, there were 85,301 reported cases in the state, including 3,915 additional cases disclosed Sunday.

There have been 4,202 deaths related to coronavirus in New Jersey with 40% of deaths, or 1,655, reported from long-term care facilities. Officials reported 132 new deaths Sunday.

As Murphy announced the news, 7,495 people were hospitalized statewide with COVID-19 and 1,628 patients hooked up to ventilators.

New Jersey has completed a total of 155,289 tests with 45.1% of the tests coming back positive as of Sunday.

Long-term care facilities continue to be a concern across the state. There are 10,500 reported COVID-19 cases at 420 long-term care facilities across the state.

Of the statewide deaths, 57% were male and 43% were female. Less than one percent were under 30 years of age, while 45.5% were over the age of 80.

NJ coronavirus cases rise to over 85K with 4,202 deaths reported statewide

 

[Inthedetails]

IMO we are tired of being shut out of everything because of some of the major cities that have too many people, in too small of a space, rule the news, and the perception that the whole US is the same.

Snipped.

Good to know. I live with my loving family among wonderful neighbors in Manhattan.

jmo

 

[Wicked Strong]

No, you wouldn't be "better off" flipping a coin. The 36% were positive so some people got useful information. I know what you're trying to say, though.

While you make it sound like the Chinese tests are flawed for some reason specific to China, it turns out that many of the rapid response tests made in the US (at major medical centers) have similar problems. Not as bad as the early ones purchased by Spain, but still way less sensitive than we need to them to be.

Even the best tests available at universities (Stanford, MIT, Harvard) are not 100% sensitive and no one yet knows what that rate is. One respected virologist who specializes in building vaccines says she assumes these tests are 88-90% accurate at best. Each iteration is a bit better than the last, but no nation was able to solve the Ab testing problem right away.

And no one knows whether the tests work well in real populations until they are used in real populations.

If your state is building its own Ab tests from scratch, there will be glitches there too. It's true that the tests being built in the US are better than the ones originally sent out of China, but at the same time, there are many private "test makers" here in the US selling test kits to private individuals who may in fact be using tests on par with the Chinese ones.

Caveat emptor.

I don't trust anything that comes out of China.

MOO only MOO

 

[10ofRods]

Not wishing to offend anybody. I have great respect for all persons in here. But what on Gods green Earth is going on in America?? I am in the UK, and over here, looking from the outside in, I am absolutely horrified at what I see on the News. All my life I have felt like the United Kingdom and the United States are Earthly cousins, bonded by the courage it takes to fight for and save innocent lives. So to see people out on the streets in protest.. totally disregarding their fellow and elderly citizens.. the ones who want to live!!. The ones who have all the correct measures in place to keep themselves from infection. Their actions are criminal. They need to realise, Lockdown is not to punish us but to save us!! Every Country in the World is in the same boat and this behaviour has not been seen in any other Country on this planet! If ever President Trump needed to prove just how great of a power he has, he should exert it right now by hauling every last protestor off to prison! Lockdown is frustrating for all persons of every country. One thing frustrates me more though and that is grown up adults who are unable to abide by simple rules. Especially when lives are at risk X
As ever peeps STAY SAFE. X

Trust me, I feel the same way when I look at your nurses and their lack of PPE (I'm in California). UK has been very late to the game of grabbing resources. UK is planning on separate vaccine research (at Oxford) which is very cool, but it's clear that they want the patent on it as well (not cool). Further, how will UK get the raw materials from Germany to manufacture and where will it be manufactured? Seems the plan is not to actual build the entire vaccination process in UK, but simply that patent. Again, not good planning.

You've got people not social distancing all over UK and places like Spoons defying common sense. It's the same here. It's exactly like the Spoons pub situation in UK. There aren't a lot of these people (there are about 12 people "protesting en masse" in my town on this fine Sunday - very very low percentage, I'm in the L.A area).

We feel the same way about these protesters (some of whom are my relatives, I just found out). There are Constitutional issues at the core of this, and so it behooves governments to carefully get us out of this complete lockdown. Not sure if UK has ever had a complete lockdown, judging from the tons of people who gather on bridges to do the Clap the NHS things every week. Where I live, it's truly been a complete lockdown, to the point that police don't even have to stop cars, there are virtually no cars on the street, all of the trips are essential.

At any rate, the key is to begin relaxing certain restrictions in populations where the people are literate and informed enough to behave themselves. I won't say where I live exactly, but some measures were taken today to allow some non-essential businesses to open and we'll see how that goes in the next 2 weeks.

Masks required in public, although very near me, same relaxation but no mandatory masks - masks recommended. I'm watching the webcam as people start back out onto the beaches - every single person is wearing a mask and they are staying way more than 6 feet apart. It's a big beach.

 

[10ofRods]

Wow, they are even including the numbers on those nursing homes.

They finally released the seven page list in Florida, but excluded the numbers. AARP and a lot of pressure elsewhere to just release this.
https://s33330.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LTCF-List.pdf

Is that a list of the facilities with known CoVid cases??!?

 

[Tadpole12]

Quebec counts 72 more COVID-19 deaths; Star tally finds 569 more cases in Ontario; Canadian actor has leg amputated

"8:27 a.m.: Tony Award-nominated Canadian actor Nick Cordero has had his right leg amputated after suffering complications from the coronavirus, his wife says. ...
"made it out of surgery alive and is headed to his room to rest and recover""