Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #49

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  • #561
Why hasn't it skyrocketed in China and Japan, Sweden, and Germany.

In fact can anyone explain the low deaths in those countries? What are they doing right that USA and UK are not?

I don't know about the others, but I think I can see what's happened in China.

Unlike countries like the UK and USA, China's outbreak was mostly limited to one province, which was closed off from the rest of the country, so most cases were in that single province and that's where they had to build the extra hospitals etc. They had the ability to send in hospital staff and ventilators etc from the rest of the massive country to that single province.

Then, they were able to achieve excellent contact tracing, so that when cases turned up in other provinces, they did contact tracing along with the social distancing in order to keep the R0 low in those regions and give them the potential to eradicate outbreaks in places where there was seeding from people who'd traveled out of Hubei.

What's happening in places like London and New York is more akin to what happened in Wuhan. But due to Wuhan being the epicentre and most cases still in that area even when they realised and acknowledged the seriousness of the virus, they could mostly keep the virus from spreading out of that region.

I followed the cases growing in the UK more than in the USA, but we had so many seeding events that we gave up and let it grow. We didn't yet have the ability to test enough people. I fear that some people returning from holidays in countries like Italy and Spain might not have taken the disease seriously enough and not isolated properly (the government wasn't ordering them to, and most people will stick to what the orders are).

So there's a huge difference between how China went about restricting the spread of the virus and the way we effectively allowed it to spread through the community and become what it is today (UK). I'm not saying this to attack anyone, it's just observation/analysis.

You could see on some of the sites, I forget the names of them, that have reporting the statistics, that in China each case was labeled with tracking, so at the beginning almost all cases tracked to Wuhan (which was the same thing in the rest of the world when the first cases were identified outside China, and this can act as a verifier to what the Chinese were reporting in their cases due to the consistency).

Even now it appears China is closely following up anyone who enters the country from outside, the Chinese returnees, and they're reporting cases in those people who are bringing the virus back with them as opposed to contracting it in China. We're not doing that in the UK, and we haven't been doing that .... I was going to say for weeks, but it's almost fair to say that we haven't done that at all!

So, I've seen an image that has the cases per so many thousand population in various countries and it's noted that China's is so much lower than Italy or Spain...There's a reason for that, and it's not lying, it's because China did an amazing job of locking down that province where the outbreak started and keeping it mostly restricted there, and then doing 'spot' cleaning up of cases that came out of the province in the way you do the spot cleaning of smaller fires that emanate from humongous wildfires.

This is also why it was said ages ago by epidemiological modelers that China was at risk of a second wave of the virus later in the year that would likely affect the whole country and have much bigger implications than what was effectively the Hubei outbreak rather than the China outbreak.

Even within the Hubei outbreak, China reached a point where they were using those arena 'hospitals' to put people in quarantine from their families, but those weren't people suffering from the most serious cases on ventilators like in the UK "Nightingale" hospitals. So that was another way to restrict the spread. The lockdown in Hubei seemed more severe than the UK lockdown, at one point they were only allowing one person per household out about twice a week to do shopping, and the only businesses open were supermarkets and pharmacies (along with hospitals) and public transport was totally shut down.

They didn't have enough tests to go around in Hubei while this was all happening! That's another big thing to note, they did it without enough tests to go around, but they reached a point where they were actively searching for cases, looking for them, x-raying chests for signs of the Covid-19 pneumonia in order to diagnose by clinical signs even when they didn't have enough tests.

My hope is that we in the UK will end up with far more options if we can take the best parts of the various strategies from other countries, like China and South Korea and mould them to fit for our country. I believe if we combined the two strategies we could virtually zero the cases here before there is a widely-available vaccine.
 
  • #562
Yes, and there are people who do this. HVAC specialists, today sometimes called Environmental Engineers.

It's not just about replacing filters- one has to spend an initial amount of money to get a higher powered pumping system.

OR, businesses can use other technologies (localized hepa filters). There are entire businesses that advise just on these things.

HVAC engineers are usually mechanical engineers. I’m an architect, registered in 5 U.S. states, and replacing HVAC systems is routinely done in many large renovation projects for commercial and institutional buildings. Architects use consulting engineering firms with mechanical engineers for these projects, licensed as PE’s in their field. Environmental engineers often work on wastewater and remediation projects.

HEPA filters are rarely part of new HVAC systems unless they have a special purpose - hospital operating room, clean room for electronics assembly, or laboratories.
 
  • #563
Thanks! I looked at that one and it should work for us. We would have to learn how to use them, since we've never tried this before. I wish there was something I could practice on before using it on my hubby's head!

It's not that hard, you'll figure it out easily. You put different size guards on the blade to cut the length you want to cut. Just start with longest one, see how you like the length and then you can decrease the length of the guard from there if it's still too long. There has only been once in all these years that the guard slipped off due to my error-- I didn't snap it on correctly :oops: and we had to shave my DH's head to hide the bald spot on the side of his head. LOL. Fortunately my DH owns lots of hats and his hair grows fast. :p:D
 
  • #564
One place you might try if you can't find those elsewhere is Kohls: Wahl Stainless Steel Lithium Ion Hair Trimmer

Kohls closed their stores but they are still selling online and I think most people will forget to check there for clippers. We have a set similar to the above. They are not the cheapest clippers but they are made in the USA and have lasted us for over a decade of haircuts (I always cut my DH's hair).
That's a cordless battery operated trimmer for beards and mustaches.

I didn't want a battery/cordless clipper because I want to use this for years. If the battery goes bad in a cordless clipper either it's junk or you have to spend money on getting the battery replaced.

I bought a corded clipper. It's showing unavailable on Amazon at this time.

ETA : It does come with the hair cutting guides so it is a hair cutter.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00006IVEN/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
 
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  • #565
  • #566
That's a cordless battery operated trimmer for beards and mustaches.

I didn't want a battery/cordless clipper because I want to use this for years. If the battery goes bad in a cordless clipper either it's junk or you have to spend money on getting the battery replaced.

I bought a corded clipper. It's showing unavailable on Amazon at this time.

ETA : It does come with the hair cutting guides so it is a hair cutter.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00006IVEN/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Oh, yeah I have one with a cord. Sorry, there were several listed at Kohls and I didn't look carefully at which one I linked, but that one does have the guards for doing haircuts too. Many times I've wished I had a cordless one because the cord gets in my way. However, I hadn't thought about the battery issue. Good point. On the other hand, I wonder how many people that buy these are really going to continue cutting hair at home indefinitely where the battery life will become an issue? I own a set of hair clippers because there was a time we couldn't afford to go to the barber/salon. Home haircuts saved us lots of money. The last few years we could afford it if we wanted to and I've tried to get DH to find a barber but he won't do it. He insists he only likes me cutting his hair. And he likes being thrifty and spending that money elsewhere. But I think the majority of Americans will try it, take lots of funny pictures of their "bad haircuts" and once the barbers and salons open up they will toss their clippers in a drawer or donate them to the thrift store (which is where I bought my first set ever). Only a few people will continue to do home haircuts IMO.
 
  • #567
We have a wind power factory in our city that produces wind turbine blades. 800 people work there. None them have been wearing PPE. A few days ago, they had a drive through testing of 400 of the employees. Approximately 122 tested positive for the virus. The plant is shut down for cleaning and all the employees have been ordered to stay home and self quarantine for 2 weeks. However, anyone who lives in the household where any of these employees are living, are not required to self quarantine. Does that make any sense?

At the beginning of last week, we had a total of 11 people test positive in our county so far. Now we have 133.

Next week they're going to test the other 400.

Wow. As it is, my sister requested a temporary layoff. I can’t imagine her ever wanting to go back if they tested the entire place - because I’m sure it would have similar results to this. I’m nervous, because someone from there died from COVID last week, but her lay-off only starts Monday.
 
  • #568
Oh, yeah I have one with a cord. Sorry, there were several listed at Kohls and I didn't look carefully at which one I linked, but that one does have the guards for doing haircuts too. Many times I've wished I had a cordless one because the cord gets in my way. However, I hadn't thought about the battery issue. Good point. On the other hand, I wonder how many people that buy these are really going to continue cutting hair at home indefinitely where the battery life will become an issue? I own a set of hair clippers because there was a time we couldn't afford to go to the barber/salon. Home haircuts saved us lots of money. The last few years we could afford it if we wanted to and I've tried to get DH to find a barber but he won't do it. He insists he only likes me cutting his hair. And he likes being thrifty and spending that money elsewhere. But I think the majority of Americans will try it, take lots of funny pictures of their "bad haircuts" and once the barbers and salons open up they will toss their clippers in a drawer or donate them to the thrift store (which is where I bought my first set ever). Only a few people will continue to do home haircuts IMO.
I don't know what the future holds for me. I'm working right now but that could change tomorrow.

I may need to keep cutting my own hair for a very long time.
 
  • #569
On hair, mine is getting to be a disaster. I normally have a short bob, with long bangs in front. The normal cute shape, now resembles "Shaggy" on "Scooby Doo". I think my last appointment was in February, right before Valentine's Day. Normally, I go in every 6-8 weeks.

Hmmm, I guess that hair cuts are going to be pretty much on the back burner for awhile.
 
  • #570
I’ll let you in on a little secret. Many dog grooming clippers are exactly the same as the ones for humans, including the guards included with them. Petedge used to have decent prices. So if you can’t find what you are looking for elsewhere, the same top brands are available for dog grooming.
 
  • #571
HVAC engineers are usually mechanical engineers. I’m an architect, registered in 5 U.S. states, and replacing HVAC systems is routinely done in many large renovation projects for commercial and institutional buildings. Architects use consulting engineering firms with mechanical engineers for these projects, licensed as PE’s in their field. Environmental engineers often work on wastewater and remediation projects.

HEPA filters are rarely part of new HVAC systems unless they have a special purpose - hospital operating room, clean room for electronics assembly, or laboratories.

And that's what has to change. Need to be in nursing homes, and probably in schools as well.

We have HEPA in our medical classrooms and nursing practical facilities (a college). It can be done. Yes, it costs money.

May be too late for that, I guess, since we probably can't just keep printing money.
 
  • #572
Yeah, and I think that is what many scientists also thought. And said to their leaders as perhaps was something like SARS or MERS.

That it was like SARS/MERS and took steps accordingly as was successful in the past and would not spread as it has (I think everyone on this thread knows the outcome of those two... died down and not international pandemic for long) ..

until it did... and then it was OH CHIT moment for the entire world.

Many had the prompting from science that it could be more than MERS or SARS... but no one knew... until it was... much more

.....Some got the "oh chit" moment before others.

Pull up bootstraps... and work together. And help those who are in need, especially those who are close to us... friends/neighbors etc.

Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?

Something that is bothering me is that the death rate for hospitalised cases seems to be very, very high, much higher than I had anticipated from the China data.

I haven't got facts to back up that feeling at the moment as most places are just reporting the deaths per total confirmed infections. But when you look, instead of deaths per confirmed infections at the deaths per recoveries (recoveries might be slightly faster than average death time) the death rate seems really high.

It's awkward really as the UK figures were mostly hospitalisations until the past week or two when the testing started being expanded more into healthcare workers and their families/living companions.

I worry that when the death to hospitalisations data comes out it's going to be horrific and look more like SARS death rates. I know it's different in that SARS rates for for all cases and not just hospitalisations, but there are so many hospitalisations in some countries' outbreaks that it still leads to horrific numbers. And those numbers are people.
 
  • #573
NEXTSTRAIN

Thanks to open data sharing from scientists at the WHO National Influenza Centre Russian Federation and @GISAID, we've just added another sequence from Russia. This new seq nests in a cluster of other viruses sampled from Saint-Petersburg, suggesting ongoing transmission

Nextstrain on Twitter
 
  • #574
Thanks! I looked at that one and it should work for us. We would have to learn how to use them, since we've never tried this before. I wish there was something I could practice on before using it on my hubby's head!
It’s really not that difficult. Always start with the highest number blade and use the scissors as your guide. And...if you mess up, he can always where a hat. I always have to remind my husband to not move.
 
  • #575
HVAC engineers are usually mechanical engineers. I’m an architect, registered in 5 U.S. states, and replacing HVAC systems is routinely done in many large renovation projects for commercial and institutional buildings. Architects use consulting engineering firms with mechanical engineers for these projects, licensed as PE’s in their field. Environmental engineers often work on wastewater and remediation projects.

HEPA filters are rarely part of new HVAC systems unless they have a special purpose - hospital operating room, clean room for electronics assembly, or laboratories.

I just learned that the Chinese manufacture tons of silicon ventilation ducting (probably a coating? I don't know).

Anyway, silicon is way more anti-viral than metal ducting, which is also interesting.

They also manufacture tons of HEPA filters - which presumably they also have for their own systems. Would be interesting to know how Germany does it.
 
  • #576
On hair, mine is getting to be a disaster. I normally have a short bob, with long bangs in front. The normal cute shape, now resembles "Shaggy" on "Scooby Doo". I think my last appointment was in February, right before Valentine's Day. Normally, I go in every 6-8 weeks.

Hmmm, I guess that hair cuts are going to be pretty much on the back burner for awhile.
Speaking from experience, don’t cut wet bangs.
 
  • #577
Speaking from experience, don’t cut wet bangs.

also speaking from experience, don't take the clipper off to shave the neck and then forget and start 'clipping' the hair again ... :eek::D
 
  • #578
@katydid23 I saw photos of the demonstrators in Michigan and they were not observing social distancing at all and even brought children. I haven’t researched the rules in Michigan for myself, so I will take your word for it about the seeds and plants. It does sound strange.

But here’s the thing. We are starting to have protests in Oregon and we do not have those restrictions. We have a stay-at-home order. We do have businesses closed that cannot do their work with social distancing. That includes my hairdresser. This link below is the governor’s order:

Oregon.gov: NewsDetail

The other links describe the protest already held and the ones to come. They are protesting the stay-at-home order as unconstitutional and trying to go back to work...in a state with cases increasing, but not as fast as they could have if no restrictions were made. I do understand the frustration of those who can’t work. The Oregon Governor has issued orders regarding eviction and wage garnishment to protect those who cannot work. She will open up the state as soon as possible in stages, with rural areas possibly opening sooner than others.

Gov. Kate Brown explains her approach to lifting stay-home restrictions: Live update recap

These are widespread protests that are not just ostensibly about seeds and church in cars as in Michigan. This is an orchestrated protest against social distancing, about having to stay home and about the economy...in numerous states, even in states like Utah without a stay-at-home order.

From the first link below:

Right-wing groups have planned events May 1 and 2 at the Oregon Capitol in Salem to protest Gov. Kate Brown's stay-home order to slow the spread of COVID-19.

The Oregon March for Freedom, hosted by American Revolution 2.0, and a Reopen Oregon rally, hosted by Oregon Uniting for Liberty, both argue that the governor's stay-home order is unconstitutional and a violation of civil liberties. They decry "unconstitutional laws and mandates, starting with the Executive Orders for lockdowns."

Right-Wing Protesters Are Planning “Reopen America” Rallies at State Capitols in Oregon and Washington

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...protest-oregons-stay-at-home-order-at-capitol

Across America, Frustrated Protesters Rally To Reopen The Economy

Dozens protest Oregon's stay-at-home order at Capitol
More than 200 gather in Redmond to protest stay-at-home order - KTVZ
These ^^^ protests seem to be small groups of extremists. That is nothing new. The past few years were chock full of extremists protesting, in every city and town, it seems.

Yes, many people, mostly low income workers and owners of small businesses that are going bankrupt, are begging to be allowed to reopen, by taking precautions.

Maybe they are wrong, but I understand the frustration. A lot of people are losing everything they have worked for and they wonder if there is a way to do things differently.

Just keep in mind, there are 2 sides to every story. It's not always black and white, cut and dry.

Here is another perspective:
All of the various restrictions coming from state governors in response to the COVID-19 do not come from State House and/or State Senate debate and decisions. These are not laws.

The rules restricting liberty, in response to the COVID crisis, have been pronounced without any representative voice supporting them.

All of the rules are arbitrary, and many of these rules will be challenged in court.

However, until those court challenges take place, the only option for a redress of grievance comes in the form of public protest. Currently, there is no way for an citizen to appeal to a representative voice against the decrees from a state governor; other than a public protest.





Boise, Idaho — More than 1,000 protesters gathered at the Idaho Statehouse Friday afternoon in defiance of Gov. Brad Little’s extension of the statewide stay-at-home order.

[…] “I can’t get a haircut, but by golly I was able to walk into Pet Smart this morning and get my dog a grooming appointment. It defies logic,” said Wayne Hoffman, president of the Idaho Freedom Foundation. “The damage that’s being done to the individuals, to businesses and the economy is horrific.”

Hoffman said the governor should allow all businesses to open to give owners a chance to demonstrate that they can take appropriate steps to mitigate the risk.

“I worry that if we don’t adapt our approach that we will continue to battle COVID-19 in incremental ways for weeks, months and years to come,” Hoffman said. “It’s like a lot of other variables that you have to deal with in the world – people with all kinds of ailments come to your doors.”


Most at the protest were standing shoulder-to-shoulder and not wearing masks. Some carried signs claiming the coronavirus is a hoax, while others held signs with slogans like, “All workers are essential” and “Freedom not fear.”

The effect of the coronavirus on the economy has been dire. In Idaho, nearly 96,000 people have filed for unemployment since Little first declared a state of emergency on March 13. That’s far more than the number of claims filed in Idaho during all of 2019.

Similar protests have been held across the country, with groups pushing back against stay-at-home orders in places like Michigan, Texas and Virginia. Dozens circled Oregon’s state Capitol in their vehicles Friday to protest that state’s stay-at-home order. (read more)

Rebellion against unilateral and authoritarian power is America. Rebellion or push-back against non-representative government is the thread connecting the patchwork of our constitutional republic. Protest is so critical to our nation that it is protected within the very first amendment to our constitution.
 
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  • #579
  • #580
It was not easy. But I'm dogmatic. Like much of us here in WS. If it's out there, somewhere, we'll find it.
I'm also not married to Google for searches. There are plenty of other search engines that will give you different venues to explore. Jmoo
 
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