Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[jjenny]

It would not be surprising if an antiviral drug such as remdesivir has to be given early in the infection to be effective. Tamiflu has to be given as early as possible in order for it to work (no more than 2 days of symptoms).

 

[10ofRods]

Yes often listed as primary and secondary cause of death. Eg. Primary could be pneumonia and secondary CV19. MOO.

There would be no way to know which of the two was the ultimate cause of death, since they are both death-dealing diseases. There's a much higher incidence of pneumonia in CV+ patients, which is such a strong trend that while only one can go on the top line, CV+ must be considered a major contributing factor to the pneumonia.

To put it another way, pneumonia is always caused by something else. It isn't its own thing, it does not cause itself. Pneumonia is caused by bacteria, viruses, or fungii, AFAIK. It doesn't cause itself.

Sorry if I posted this twice. I am just hoping that everyone can ask better questions of their doctor if they something like "You have bronchitis" or "You have pneumonia." I'd want a culture or test of some sort!

 

[Henry2326]

NEW: Sat 25 April update of coronavirus trajectories
Daily deaths
• Brazil
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• Looks like UK has
• But descents look much slower than ascents
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria
Live charts Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Now back to the international charts, and cumulative deaths:
• US death is highest worldwide and still rising fast
• Japan set to pass S Korea
• UK curve still matching Italy’s
• Australia still looks promising
All charts: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Daily new cases
• Russia & Brazil arcing upwards as outbreaks hit emerging market countries
• Not yet clear US cases have peaked
• New cases falling in countries that acted early: NZ, Aus, Norway, Austria
• Singapore now sloping upwards after initially keeping outbreak at bay John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Cases in cumulative form:
• US curve beginning to taper?
• Turkey still battling a severe outbreak
• Japan has passed Korea’s total, Singapore has passed Japan’s curve: both show the danger of thinking a country has dealt with Covid
All charts: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Subnational region daily deaths:
• NY daily confirmed Covid deaths now descending (we’re excluding nursing homes for consistency)
• Daily London deaths also appear to have peaked
• Most Western cities/regions now in plateau or decline phase
All charts: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY curve tapering, but has passed Lombardy for world’s highest subnational death toll
All charts: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

 

[24Roses]

Iowa news today: Iowa now has more than 5,000 positive COVID-19 cases
We had 648 new confirmed cases today and 5 more have passed. We now have a total of 5,092 confirmed cases and 112 have passed.
Iowa nursing home for veterans says 2 residents have virus

 

[Teche]

Pandemic quandary. I took out a lb. of ground hamburger meat out of the freezer. What do I do with this valuable asset?

Make 3 hamburger patties for variety, or make a small batch of homemade spaghetti sauce? Oh, the basic decisions that we rethink while under stay at home rules and trying to extend our pantry while having variety of things to eat.

Hamburgers, spaghetti, hamburgers, spaghetti.... I still don't know.

I have a separate freezer and buy large packs of ground beef from Costco. It probably comes in 12 lb. packs. When I get home, I divide it up into 2-3 lb. packs. I season each pack, add a raw egg, and bread crumbs. I usually will make meatballs for spaghetti and meatballs for meatball stew (brown gravy) or meatloaf. I find by cooking 2 meals at the same time with freezing in mind. I find by trying to meal prep., I spend less time in the kitchen and have more balanced meals for my husband and me.

 

[Simply Southern]

Horrible. Why didn't New York used the ships for the covid patients instead of either leaving covid patients stay in nursing homes or sending covid patients from the hospitals into the nursing homes?

California transferred all healthy patients in Long Term Care to the Mercy. This allowed LTC facilities to care for those with Covid without overburdening the hospitals.

 

[CSIDreamer]

I don't think you can draw the line that clearly, the body isn't a machine with separate parts, altho medical science talks about it that way.

IMO, death is always caused when the heart stops. Science looks for the short term cause, why that heart stopped, at that time.

This is extreme but, what if someone with terminal cancer commits suicide by shooting themselves. Cause of death will be the gun shot, not the suicide, and not the cancer diagnosis that led them to do it, and certainly not the actual cancer.

Similarly, when a person has this virus, the body cannot ignore it and carry on with the long, slow, death by cancer. The body will have to mount a defense against the virus, which will either succeed, leading to recovery, or fail, leading to death. The specific reasons why the immune system failed are important, but the immediate cause of death will be the corona virus invading their body.

JMO

I wonder about all this. In your suicide scenario:

Cause of death: gunshot wound
Manner of death: suicide
Underlying conditions: cancer, depression (?)

So if a person with pancreatic cancer on hospice dies, if the virus is found after death would it be:

Cause of death: cancer
Manner of death: natural
Underlying conditions: CV19

Makes me wonder how these are being classified if the virus is discovered after death such as fatal car accident.

We need an accurate count. Muddling along, I just got home from work. Scatterbrained.

Jmo

 

[CSIDreamer]

Well, that's not what she said. She said even if you die from a clear alternative cause, you're classified as covid if you tested positive. So the person who shot themselves in the head would be a covid death if the person tested positive. There's no legitimate justication for that, imo.

ITA. They should be added to positive cases though.

 

[cass523]

April 24

Second wave- other virus strains, flu, more people will need hospital beds
A Must-Physical distancing, testing, masks, contact tracing

“What we are really, really are worried about is that if we have a big second wave of this virus in the fall and winter, that coincides with flu season and other viruses like RSV particularly in children,” said Dr. Meade. “We could see major influx of people who are sick that need hospital beds.”

In a Washington Post interview, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Robert Redfield said that a second wave of coronavirus during the next flu season could be catastrophic — even potentially eclipsing the severity of the first wave.

“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” Redfield told the Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”

“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said — an occurrence, in his words, that could put “unimaginable strain” on the US healthcare system will be even more strained.

The words of warning seem to have fallen deaf ears. A number of US states have decided to gradually reopen, just as the total number of cases and deaths in the country is approaching its peak.

Q. What I can't figure out is how can it make a second wave? Where's it going until then? How is it hiding until winter? How does the flu come back every year? How can it just be inactive somewhere?

Dr.Elizabeth Meade with Swedish Hospital, explains how viruses are constantly circulating in different parts of the world, in different months of the year.

“I liken it to a fire,” said Dr. Meade. “So sometimes it can be smoldering ashes and then it came, come roaring back as it gets that oxygen boost and that oxygen boost is really people getting in close proximity to each other.”

“There is always some low-level transmission happening typically and so viruses can come back as people start to spend more time in close proximity, more transmission happens,” said Dr. Meade. “And viruses can mutate, so what you were immune to last year to the flu, you may not be this year.”


Will a 'second wave' of COVID-19 hit in the winter?

I forgot a link CDC: Second wave of COVID-19 could be even worse

 

[otto]

It would not be surprising if an antiviral drug such as remdesivir has to be given early in the infection to be effective. Tamiflu has to be given as early as possible in order for it to work (no more than 2 days of symptoms).

According to pre-pandemic times, no drug is endorsed for any reason until it is proven, using proper scientific protocols and peer review, that it works. At this time, there is no evidence that Gilead drugs work. Gilead would have us believe that the drugs work because there are no completed studies proving that it failed with coronavirus, just like it failed for ebola.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Im thinking I need a pulse ox now. $40 is like the cheapest though? Is that about right? I don’t want to ridiculously overpay

I almost bought one. But now I think my wrist BP monitor may also measure pulse ox. I’ll have to check when the cat on my lap releases me.

When I was looking, though, I sorted by low to high, and I did find some under $30 just the other day.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Forget the significance, we need to move those holidays to a safer time. So many people catch illness from the holiday events. They moved days off for some holidays to Mondays. Throw tomatoes at me, but I want these holidays moved to non-flu season.

This is an interesting suggestion. My brother hosts thanksgiving and has already told me it’s not happening this year. I host Christmas and I’m doubtful it’s going to happen.

 

[Trino]

Will things get worse?
Never really considered this until a few days ago. Worldwide, especially in under developed countries, there probably will be a severe food shortage. What about the US? Check online because there are predictions of food shortages, especially since meat packing plants have recently closed due to coronavirus. Combine this view with the prediction of a second wave, and the future suddenly isn't looking so rosey.

 

[Henry2326]

Iowa news today: Iowa now has more than 5,000 positive COVID-19 cases
We had 648 new confirmed cases today and 5 more have passed. We now have a total of 5,092 confirmed cases and 112 have passed.
Iowa nursing home for veterans says 2 residents have virus

No flattening to either curve....8 and 9% growth rates.....
IHME recommends containment until June 26.

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

[10ofRods]

It would not be surprising if an antiviral drug such as remdesivir has to be given early in the infection to be effective. Tamiflu has to be given as early as possible in order for it to work (no more than 2 days of symptoms).

Exactly! One of the glaringly wrong things about how the FDA approves drugs is that it needs the drug to be 99-99.9% effective within a certain demographic or, say, 80% effective in general cases. YET, we are all individuals. What if you are the the one person in the world where...X drug works...? You'd want that drug.

Some doctors are more open to this patient-directed "off schedule use," most are not, especially in the big medical corporations.

So...timing of the drug matters. Some people are super quick to notice their own symptoms - let them get with haste to the doctor/pharmacy and get the early drugs.

Other people have weird genetics (I have a weird clotting factor gene), so maybe I should get some experimental drug to do with clotting that might not be great for someone else?

Who should decide ? IMO, the prescribing/treating doctor who is on the clinical front. Not the FDA. And not the media or politicians or anthropology professors or well-meaning neighbors. A good clinician. So yeah, I'll try and get that good clinician (and some good nurses) to consult/treat if I get anything resembling CV19.

 

[Satchie]

I wonder about all this. In your suicide scenario:

Cause of death: gunshot wound
Manner of death: suicide
Underlying conditions: cancer, depression (?)

So if a person with pancreatic cancer on hospice dies, if the virus is found after death would it be:

Cause of death: cancer
Manner of death: natural
Underlying conditions: CV19

Makes me wonder how these are being classified if the virus is discovered after death such as fatal car accident.

We need an accurate count. Muddling along, I just got home from work. Scatterbrained.

Jmo

My assumption is that covid-19 is a violent attack on the body, similar to a gunshot. If your immune system is healthy, it's like you're wearing a bullet proof vest, or were just grazed by the bullet. If you succumb, it's because, for whatever reason, you received a direct hit. I can't say this for sure, but it's my impression.

We need more info. I'm fascinated why, for eg, Boris Johnson had such a close call, whereas collegues and his wife didn't need to go to hospital, much less ICU.

 

[cass523]

As of April 25, there were 105,523 reported cases in the state, including 3,457 additional cases disclosed Saturday.

New Jersey has completed a total of 191,813 tests with 43.9% of the tests coming back positive as of Saturday.

Long-term care facilities continue to be a concern across the state. There are 15,105 reported COVID-19 cases at 474 long-term care facilities across the state.

--There have been 5,863 deaths related to coronavirus in New Jersey, with 1,652 confirmed and 1,044 suspected in long-term care facilities. Officials reported 249 new deaths Saturday.

The racial breakdown of those who have died in New Jersey is: 53.2% white, 20.3% black, 16.3% Hispanic, 5.2% Asian and 5% classified as other.

--In New Jersey, 6,722 individuals with confirmed or potential cases of COVID-19 are hospitalized as of Saturday.

Of those hospitalized patients, 925 patients are in intensive care, 1,046 are in critical care and 4,501 are in medical surgical beds.

The state is using 46.3% of its statewide ventilator capacity, with 1,442 patients on ventilators.

Coronavirus-related deaths rise to 5,863 Saturday, with over 105,000 cases in NJ

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

It's only been a couple of weeks since Boris was in hospital with Covid but he's due back at work next week.

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson will be back at work in Downing Street on Monday

 

[jjenny]

According to pre-pandemic times, no drug is endorsed for any reason until it is proven, using proper scientific protocols and peer review, that it works. At this time, there is no evidence that Gilead drugs work. Gilead would have us believe that the drugs work because there are no completed studies proving that it failed with coronavirus, just like it failed for ebola.

The drug hasn't been approved for anything as of yet. It's experimental. Of course Gilead wants it to work. And I assume many other people do. Because vaccine is clearly still far away, and we need something that can treat it.

 

[Henry2326]

As of April 25, there were 105,523 reported cases in the state, including 3,457 additional cases disclosed Saturday.

New Jersey has completed a total of 191,813 tests with 43.9% of the tests coming back positive as of Saturday.

Long-term care facilities continue to be a concern across the state. There are 15,105 reported COVID-19 cases at 474 long-term care facilities across the state.

--There have been 5,863 deaths related to coronavirus in New Jersey, with 1,652 confirmed and 1,044 suspected in long-term care facilities. Officials reported 249 new deaths Saturday.

The racial breakdown of those who have died in New Jersey is: 53.2% white, 20.3% black, 16.3% Hispanic, 5.2% Asian and 5% classified as other.

--In New Jersey, 6,722 individuals with confirmed or potential cases of COVID-19 are hospitalized as of Saturday.

Of those hospitalized patients, 925 patients are in intensive care, 1,046 are in critical care and 4,501 are in medical surgical beds.

The state is using 46.3% of its statewide ventilator capacity, with 1,442 patients on ventilators.

Coronavirus-related deaths rise to 5,863 Saturday, with over 105,000 cases in NJ

Although NJ is seeing some plateau of cases (growth rate 4%), deaths are still on an 8% growth rate.

IHME recommends containment until May 27.

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

IHME | COVID-19 Projections