Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[Seattle1]

IMO, too many reports intent to politicize studies are doing a true disservice to possible future treatment of the virus.

This is a new study of announced Friday by the University of Washington --a major new study of the malaria drug President Donald Trump has praised as a possible, low-cost cure for COVID-19. If media is to be believed -- this Rx has already been deemed 100% failure. Reduced viral shedding could be a game-changer!

UW to lead national study of drug promoted by President Trump to fight coronavirus

April 24, 2020

“We don’t know if these medicines are effective and we need to know,” Johnston said. “But we also need to make sure they’re safe, and in a clinical trial we can achieve both those things.”

[..]

Earlier studies in China that found little benefit focused on extremely ill patients, but the UW project will study people with confirmed coronavirus infections who are not sick enough to be hospitalized.

The goal is to find out if early treatment could protect people from developing viral pneumonia. The researchers also want to see if people who get the drug show reduced viral shedding, which might mean they are less likely to pass the disease on to others.

The team hopes to enroll 630 patients nationwide, including 100 to 150 in the Seattle area. Participants will be randomly assigned to receive either a 10-day course of hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin or a placebo. Results should be available by July.

 

[jjenny]

Nobody found any reduced viral shedding with anti-malaria drug. They just want to study if it results in any reduced viral shedding.

 

[jjenny]

Remdisivir did work in monkeys where it was given early. Monkeys had much improvement with remdisivir, but even that didn't reduce viral shedding.
"The investigators note that the data supports initiating remdesivir treatment in COVID-19 patients as early as possible to achieve maximum treatment effect. The authors, from NIAID’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Hamilton, Montana, also note that while remdesivir helped prevent pneumonia, it did not reduce virus shedding by the animals. “This finding is of great significance for patient management, where a clinical improvement should not be interpreted as a lack of infectiousness,” they write."
Antiviral remdesivir prevents disease progression in monkeys with COVID-19

 

[Tillicum]

Navy Blue Angels, Air Force Thunderbirds teaming up for flyovers to salute coronavirus frontline workers

This mission is one of several planned for the upcoming weeks, according to the release. Flyovers in Newark, New York City and the surrounding boroughs will start at noon ET and last for around 35 minutes.

Flyovers in Trenton will start at 1:45 p.m. ET and last approximately 10 minutes, while flyovers in Philadelphia will start at 2 p.m. ET and last around 20 minutes.

 

[24Roses]

No flattening to either curve....8 and 9% growth rates.....
IHME recommends containment until June 26.

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

I wouldn't follow that site too much though. School closures were way before April 4. IIRC and IMO she reommended schools to close on Sunday, March 15 and some were on Spring break already the week of the 16th. I'm 100% confident that very few schools in Iowa went to school past Tues. March 17 (and I think those only went so parents could make arrangments for kids and the kids could get school supplies). Also, alot of non essential businesses are closed right now in Iowa voluntarily or by governor request. Some weren't closed until like mid April though IIRC and IMO. However, I do think there are many places in Iowa that still could be closed if she did implement a real stay at home order. There are many complaints in Iowa that employees think their business is not essential.

 

[Tillicum]

Coronavirus deaths will be 'dramatically decreased' by end of May: Dr. Deborah Birx

 

[Henry2326]

I wouldn't follow that site too much though. School closures were way before April 4. IIRC and IMO she reommended schools to close on Sunday, March 15 and some were on Spring break already the week of the 16th. I'm 100% confident that very few schools in Iowa went to school past Tues. March 17 (and I think those only went so parents could make arrangments for kids and the kids could get school supplies). Also, alot of non essential businesses are closed right now in Iowa voluntarily or by governor request. Some weren't closed until like mid April though IIRC and IMO. However, I do think there are many places in Iowa that still could be closed if she did implement a real stay at home order. There are many complaints in Iowa that employees think their business is not essential.

Los Alamos has Iowa peaking in May along the same timeline. I watch them all....data is the key to understanding the situation. What we do today impacts the results next week, as history has demonstrated.

Based on comments from the Director of IHME, they are revising their forecast this week to a gloomier perspective.....see below.
-----------------------------------------------
"IHME Director Christopher Murray defended his team’s work as rigorous and among the best models available, arguing that the forecast simply seeks to achieve different goals than more traditional projections. The model was originally meant to help hospitals predict their supply needs, as providers across the world braced for a wave of coronavirus patients.

“We’re willing to make a forecast. Most academics want to hedge their bets and not be found to ever be wrong,” Murray said. “That’s not useful for a planner — you can’t go to a hospital and say you might need 1,000 ventilators, or you might need 5,000.”

He added that IHME’s model is far more optimistic than others in large part because it heavily accounted for the impact of social distancing — a decision Murray credited for helping pinpoint the pandemic’s national peak even as others warned of continued massive growth in cases.

“We’re orders of magnitude more optimistic. On the other hand we also called the peak correctly,” he said. “We believe in fitting models to data, and not making an assumption and then saying how my assumption would play out in a hypothetical world.”

The IHME, he said, will update its estimates next week to reflect a gloomier future amid indications that states like Georgia will begin to reopen — and boost the odds of a prolonged pandemic.

“We had presumed, perhaps naively, that given the magnitude of the epidemic, most states would stick to their social distancing until the end of May,” Murray said. “That is not happening.”


How overly optimistic modeling distorted Trump team’s coronavirus response

Coronavirus -- IHME Model Performance: An Update | National Review

COVID-19 Confirmed and Forecasted Case Data

 

[10ofRods]

Thanks for your comments.

Actually there is official advice on masks from the Cdn government: Considerations in the use of homemade masks to protect against COVID-19 - Canada.ca

"Wearing a facial covering/non-medical mask in the community has not been proven to protect the person wearing it and is not a substitute for physical distancing and hand washing. However, it can be an additional measure you can take to protect others around you, even if you have no symptoms."

...[Homemade] masks may not be effective in blocking virus particles that may be transmitted by coughing, sneezing or certain medical procedures. They do not provide complete protection from virus particles because of a potential loose fit and materials used"

....Medical masks, including surgical, medical procedure face masks and respirators (like N95 masks), must be kept for healthcare workers and others providing direct care to COVID-19 patients."

Canada has had serious problems getting a long term supply of PPE for medical workers. But also, officials are committed to following a science-based approach, and following WHO guidelines. Appointed public health officers are the source of guidance, not politicians, TV personalities, etc. (a bit of a dig there at what we sometimes patronizingly view as our wacky neighbours to the south. I love Americans, honestly)

Oh, okay. I get it. Well, here where I live, we've been through some dramatic fires. The smoke and ash were around for months. It still kicks up. It contains asbestos and crap. So our public health told us to get N95 masks and many of us did. Ours are used, but we know how to sanitize them.

Then, our local hospitals said they didn't need any more donations. The college where I work had lots of N95 masks in the warehouse, because we train nurses, hygienists, respiratory techs, etc, those were donated all around SoCal and colleges in NorCal did the same. I don't feel I need to donate my used mask and I'm very glad to have it. I have a couple in my office, because I do teach a lab and the students practice with cheap surgical masks, but the procedure of putting them on an off is the same - we're training students to work in medical labs as well.

Many threads ago, we discussed enhancements to fabric masks. If interested, I'm sure there are many who would give advice that's even better, but the general rule would be to use a tightly woven fabric like pillowcase material. But even a tucked in bandana is better than nothing.

One is struck when traveling, by how Asians wear masks so routinely. Entire groups of Asians deplaning at LAX (prior to CV19) had masks on. I've read so many recommendations on Asian beauty/skincare boards that I realized how seriously they took it. Our own CDC in the US did the same thing (and I fell for it briefly, until I read the studies; I should have known better - they should have told the truth from the beginning, which would have happened if the US federal agencies had had supplies of masks - which they did not).

This whole "ship only when needed" economy is over. Warehouses need to hold essential supplies. Two N95 masks should last a single person a long time. This pandemic is not going to be over soon.

 

[Henry2326]

"Beginning on May 1, the NBA is allowing teams to open their practice facilities to players in cities and states where local governments have eased stay-at-home orders, sources tell ESPN," Wojnarowski tweeted.

Georgia is reopening , which will affect the Atlanta Hawks.

Oklahoma is reopening May 1 , which will affect the Oklahoma City Thunder.

"Teams will be allowed to make facilities open to players voluntarily for individual work, but larger group workouts will still be prohibited," Wojnarowski reported.

Wojnarowski added that organizations want players playing and practicing in safe, clean team environments.

Larger group workouts will still be prohibited, NBA officials told Wojnarowski.

Starting May 1, NBA opening practice facilities for some teams

 

[margarita25]

Alex Azar: White House officials are discussing plans to replace Health and Human Services secretary - CNNPolitics
Updated 9:36 PM ET, Sat April 25, 2020

 

[LadyL]

I think it's ridiculous to mandate nursing homes to accept covid patients. Absolutely ridiculous. Clearly results speak for themselves.

the opposite is happening here
my Dad's in the hospital and we were making arrangements for him to be transferred to long-term care
but the gov't vetoed that process in all hospitals, putting a hold on any transfers because of the virus in long-term care homes

 

[Alathea]

Sadly, emergency and health lines continue to be bogged down by recent misinformation; IT IS STILL A HUGE ISSUE. Here's the facts, just in case!

No, warm weather will not kill the coronavirus - The Boston Globe
SNIPPET: "A recent report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine downplayed the impact of warm weather, concluding it “may not lead to a significant reduction” in spread, at least on its own. The report, coauthored by Walt and issued to the White House earlier this month, found that the best defenses are the adoption of major public health actions, such as social distancing, and more widespread immunity to the virus."

Makers of Clorox and Lysol warn against ingesting bleach and disinfectants after President Trump’s remarks - The Boston Globe
SNIPPET: "The Clorox Co. said Friday that disinfecting surfaces with bleach was one way to help slow the spread of COVID-19, citing recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But it added, “Bleach and other disinfectants are not suitable for consumption or injection under any circumstances.”

Accidents with household cleaning products appear to have sharply increased in recent weeks, according to doctors who monitor activity at poison call centers. On Monday, the CDC reported an alarming trend of growing calls to poison control centers, and a significant increase in accidental exposures to household cleaners and disinfectants.

Ingesting bleach or disinfectant chemicals is very dangerous, said Dr. Diane P. Calello, medical director of the New Jersey Poison Information and Education System. “When people injected bleach or highly concentrated rubbing alcohol it causes massive organ damage and the blood cells in the body to basically burst,” she said.'

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Virus researchers say there is virtually no chance that the new coronavirus was released as result of a laboratory accident in China or anywhere else.

Virus Researchers Cast Doubt On Theory Of Coronavirus Lab Accident

 

[cody22]

Two Bakersfield doctors cite their testing data to urge reopening

The plot thickens on the differing Virus medical opinions.......moo

 

[Henry2326]

Washington: Governor- thank you for staying home and staying healthy. It's working.
While we have a long way to go, we're taking the first small step toward recovery today. 1/4

Existing construction projects can restart so long as they follow new safety measures.
Working with labor and industry groups, we developed a plan that will keep workers safe while working. 2/4 Governor Jay Inslee on Twitter

As we look to reopen other industries, my office and @WAStateCommerce will convene similar stakeholder groups to ensure we protect public health.
We will not lift measures until health experts and data say it’s safe to do so. 3/4

Governor Jay Inslee on Twitter

Let me be clear: we are nowhere near ready to reopen broadly. To do so now would be incredibly irresponsible and put Washingtonians in danger.
Keep staying home. Please stay healthy.
Let’s continue to lead by example here in Washington. 4/4

Governor Jay Inslee on Twitter

 

[Deleted member 39678]

Sadly, emergency and health lines continue to be bogged down by recent misinformation; IT IS STILL A HUGE ISSUE. Here's the facts, just in case!

No, warm weather will not kill the coronavirus - The Boston Globe
SNIPPET: "A recent report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine downplayed the impact of warm weather, concluding it “may not lead to a significant reduction” in spread, at least on its own. The report, coauthored by Walt and issued to the White House earlier this month, found that the best defenses are the adoption of major public health actions, such as social distancing, and more widespread immunity to the virus."

Makers of Clorox and Lysol warn against ingesting bleach and disinfectants after President Trump’s remarks - The Boston Globe
SNIPPET: "The Clorox Co. said Friday that disinfecting surfaces with bleach was one way to help slow the spread of COVID-19, citing recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But it added, “Bleach and other disinfectants are not suitable for consumption or injection under any circumstances.”

Accidents with household cleaning products appear to have sharply increased in recent weeks, according to doctors who monitor activity at poison call centers. On Monday, the CDC reported an alarming trend of growing calls to poison control centers, and a significant increase in accidental exposures to household cleaners and disinfectants.

Ingesting bleach or disinfectant chemicals is very dangerous, said Dr. Diane P. Calello, medical director of the New Jersey Poison Information and Education System. “When people injected bleach or highly concentrated rubbing alcohol it causes massive organ damage and the blood cells in the body to basically burst,” she said.'

So people are actually ingesting bleach, rubbing alcohol and household cleaners in an attempt to prevent themselves from getting the virus.

What is wrong with these people? Don't these people have any common sense? JMO

 

[jjenny]

Two Bakersfield doctors cite their testing data to urge reopening

The plot thickens on the differing Virus medical opinions.......moo

They don't believe up to 100,000 of Americans could die from covid? We are already at 54,000. When it's all said and done, there likely going to be more than 100,000 dead.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

They don't believe up to 100,000 of Americans could die from covid? We are already at 54,000. When it's all said and done, there likely going to be more than 100,000 dead.

I wonder what kind of grades they got in med school.

 

[cody22]

New York City will distribute 500,000 free halal meals to Muslims during Ramadan - CNN

How very kind of them during this time of Crisis........moo

 

[Deleted member 39678]

Virus researchers say there is virtually no chance that the new coronavirus was released as result of a laboratory accident in China or anywhere else.

Virus Researchers Cast Doubt On Theory Of Coronavirus Lab Accident

That's a very reassuring article.

It's impossible that the virus escaped from a Chinese lab. It had to be a natural transmission from bats to humans. Bats have thousands of different coronaviruses. Other animals have them too and since man is fragmenting these animals habitats we will be exposed to more of them.

Looks like we will be getting many more novel viruses if this is true. JMO