Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[tresir2012]

Actually I care.

This guy paid his dues....44 years. He died of Covid before they could get him out the gate.

Michigan inmate died of Covid-19 just before he was to be released - CNN

People are being offered early release if their end dates are within the year. Our country has a significant number of non-violent offenders who should be released and have been.
Where do you think these folks are gonna go if a state prison system is overrun with Covid? Yep, to the nearest public hospital. We have to manage these locations too if not for the healthcare system but also for morality of human decency.

Only 13.2% of offenders are in your "I don't care" category.

Chart Label Offense # of Inmates % of Inmates
a Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement 329 0.2%
b Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses 8,085 5.0%
c Continuing Criminal Enterprise 321 0.2%
d Courts or Corrections 655 0.4%
e Drug Offenses 73,476 45.5%
f Extortion, Fraud, Bribery 9,516 5.9%
g Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses 5,120 3.2%
h Immigration 9,349 5.8%
i Miscellaneous 1,005 0.6%
j National Security 47 0.0%
k Robbery 5,498 3.4%
l Sex Offenses 16,729 10.4%
m Weapons, Explosives, Arson 31,401 19.4%

BOP Statistics: Inmate Offenses

As well there is alot to learn about covid from these populations. Appears Ohio is the only state that is mass testing and has found 96% of their positive tests have no symptoms. Which even more highlights the need for mass testing to find people who are infected and spreading to others.

In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus -- 96% without symptoms

I have to say I care more about those in the care homes than those in prison. Can't they spread out the prisoners more? Send them to open prisons? Early release yes, but ankle monitors to stay at home. Lots of options there.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Creative moms out there are probably already brainstorming. It wouldn't surprise me to see a new type of pacifier that was attached to some sort of mask. Or, maybe a built-in lollipop. Those candy "rings" attached to the inside of a mask could also be an incentive to keep it on! IMO LOL

Neither of my grandchildren will touch a paci. Go figure.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I know how China kept their 'death totals' so low. ....All they had to do was fill out the form with less numbers than the actual ones...no problem at all...

Understand how you view as to all they had to do was to fill out a form.

Akin to the United States, UK and Italy and most countries right now as to death rates being low.

I think everyone agrees (scientists/politicians/here at WS) that every country is reported less than actual. (We'll see if someone here replies they do not ?) MOO

Very much in the news and talked about in pressers regionally and country wise in the US and UK and Italy etc. Dr. Campbell has been all over this for over a month as to US, UK, Italy (especially!!!!) etc not reporting on at home and long-term care not reporting.MOO

All are saying that the numbers for the entire world as to death rates are under reported for at home and nursing homes and long term care facilities. China and other countries have updated, and US is just starting to. It's a tragedy that they were not collected in real time.. but it seems that is an issue in first world and to be seen third world countries. MOO

 

[otto]

They have a point. I have tried to get some car insurance back as I am only now driving 15 miles every 10 days. These insurance companies will be having a great year with very few accidents, thefts etc. So far I have only heard of one company in the UK giving £25 back to their policy holders.

I agree that students have a valid point about tuition reduction. I think tuition should be reduced to reflect the reduced learning experience, but I know that institutions will fight this and justify increasing tuition any way possible.

I think there is an argument to be made for the Winter semester (Jan - Apr 2020) refund simply because students paid for an in-class experience and that was not delivered. However, for Spring/Summer semesters, everyone knows that classes will be online so they are agreeing to the tuition costs.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Our Prosector, Monmouth’s prosecutor Christopher J. Gramiccioni made sure dangerous criminals were not released.

"There is, though, growing concern by many prosecutors across the state that defense attorneys and prison reformers are trying to use the COVID-19 pandemic as a 'get-out-of-jail free' card, following the release of lower-level offenders, as a foothold on the way to seeking release of more dangerous inmate,'' Gramiccioni said."

''You are starting to see opportunistic efforts to get defendants out of jail at all costs, no matter the situation or facts - Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, Bernie Madoff, Michael Avenatti, and R. Kelly are a few examples nationally,'' Gramiccioni said.'' What's more, little regard seems to have been given for victims' rights and concerns, something that is required by statute in New Jersey. Regardless of the claimed health risks to the prison population, we still have a moral and constitutional obligation to protect society from dangerous criminals.''

FREEHOLD, N.J. – 22 prisoners. One of them – a Megan’s Law violator – murdered a 16-year-old girl decades ago. Another compelled his own 7-year-old daughter to perform oral sex… on him. Two others are convicted arsonists.

Those four and 18 others (including some who assaulted police officers) were set to be released from Monmouth County Jail under a N.J. Supreme Court order purportedly designed to reduce the risk of COVID-19’s spread by springing hundreds of inmates from county fails. Thanks to the intervention of Monmouth’s prosecutor and sheriff, 14 of 22 will now stay behind bars for the time being.

Coronavirus NJ: Murphy calls for release of some inmates

UPDATE #2: Monmouth prosecutor, sheriff block release of 14 of 22 dangerous inmates »

Wow so glad they caught that.

 

[10ofRods]

I know how China kept their 'death totals' so low. ....All they had to do was fill out the form with less numbers than the actual ones...no problem at all...

I thought that at first, but at this point, have been in contact with far too many Chinese doctors and American colleagues to believe that. I do believe they reported their numbers more or less accurately. And in fact, right now they're sounding an alarm on another CoVid issue, which I will summarize here when I get the time.

However, let me put it this way. Chinese used some very repressive measures. They have done this in the past, they know how to do it, they have the means to do it, no one is given the opportunity to squeak or protest. Polls show that 95% of the Chinese think this is exactly the way to handle a pandemic.

Like Germany, China also has more negative pressure hospital rooms per capita than anywhere in the US, different kind of ventilation systems, newer hospitals, and of course, many people wear masks on the daily and in my own headcounts (using webcams) as this virus started up, it looked to me that 90-98% of the Chinese out of the streets in Wuhan and elsewhere were wearing masks, even double masks. China also has lots of doctors, nurses, and ventilators. Early on, though, they learned that ventilation might not be the best treatment. Some of the best science on CoVid continues to come from China.

It's possible that China, like UK, didn't report all of its deaths in one international figure. UK has an additional 8000 deaths in nursing homes that are considered by the NHS to be CoVid deaths but not yet in the international numbers.

China is reporting regularly on its new cases, the strain of virus involved and much else. It's really useful information.

 

[tresir2012]

Bill Gates’s Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Ready in 12 Months

Bill Gates is funding development of a vaccine.

"Dr. Fauci and I have been fairly consistent to say 18 months to create expectations that are not too high,” Gates said, referring to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force.

"The availability of testing for the coronavirus has been a sore spot in the U.S. for months. President Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday that the U.S. “just passed 5 million Tests, far more than any other country.”

Just looking at raw numbers misses the true picture, Gates said.

“This focus on the number of tests understates the cacophony and the mistakes we’ve made in the testing system,” Gates said. “The wrong people are being tested, and any time you don’t get results in less than 24 hours, the value of the test is dramatically reduced.”


The philanthropist and co-founder of Microsoft Corp. said his best-case scenario for a phased reopening of the economy is to “pick the high-value activities like school, manufacturing and construction, and figure out a way to do those with masks and distancing.”

Schools
“If we can figure out how to do K-through-12 in the fall, that would be good,” Gates said, adding that the U.S. may even be able to open colleges “if we’re creative about it.”

“It will probably be in August where we know what’s the protocol, how many schools are opening up, and we won’t really know enough until pretty close to the start,” he said.

Gates also warned that trying to rush a reopening and generating “exponential” growth in Covid-19 cases “will be seeding other parts of the country,” comparing it to the infection spreading via international travel in early 2020.

Microsoft shares, at around $174, are up about 10% for the year to date, even though major market indexes are down and some companies’ stocks have been hammered.

More at link.

 

[rogue ant]

As an expat Quebecoise, I have been following Quebec's news closely and it saddens me deeply. I grew up in Montreal and have many close friends who still live there with their families.

Quebec is the epicenter of the pandemic for Canada, and Montreal is the epicenter of the pandemic for the province of Quebec. Montreal is a densely populated island. And they had spring break in Quebec that was 2 weeks earlier than Ontario. A lot of Quebecois travelled to New York, the U.S. (think Florida for the retirees), and to France. Also, seniors are a higher percentage of the population in Quebec, which has hit long-term care facilities hard.

RSBM.
Quebec ex-pat here as well. Family, and many friends, still live there. Many people were taken aback at last Thursday's provincial presser when François Legault suggested that the province would have to build herd immunity in order to end the lockdown. Legault has walked back this statement since- I know there was a federal-provincial conference call soon after, and I know the feds don't approve.

 

[tresir2012]

I thought that at first, but at this point, have been in contact with far too many Chinese doctors and American colleagues to believe that. I do believe they reported their numbers more or less accurately. And in fact, right now they're sounding an alarm on another CoVid issue, which I will summarize here when I get the time.

However, let me put it this way. Chinese used some very repressive measures. They have done this in the past, they know how to do it, they have the means to do it, no one is given the opportunity to squeak or protest. Polls show that 95% of the Chinese think this is exactly the way to handle a pandemic.

Like Germany, China also has more negative pressure hospital rooms per capita than anywhere in the US, different kind of ventilation systems, newer hospitals, and of course, many people wear masks on the daily and in my own headcounts (using webcams) as this virus started up, it looked to me that 90-98% of the Chinese out of the streets in Wuhan and elsewhere were wearing masks, even double masks. China also has lots of doctors, nurses, and ventilators. Early on, though, they learned that ventilation might not be the best treatment. Some of the best science on CoVid continues to come from China.

It's possible that China, like UK, didn't report all of its deaths in one international figure. UK has an additional 8000 deaths in nursing homes that are considered by the NHS to be CoVid deaths but not yet in the international numbers.

China is reporting regularly on its new cases, the strain of virus involved and much else. It's really useful information.

Have you got a link for the additional 8k UK deaths not yet reported? I haven't seen that number mentioned so far but am still catching up.

Have you also got a link for the 95% of Chinese thinking repressive measures are the way to handle a pandemic? I have already linked the fact that 97% of Hong Kong citizens wear masks but have not seen that for the mainland of China, but I would believe that.

 

[Trino]

In all the documentaries I've watched and articles I've read, there is no explanation for why the virus died out after 3 waves. The first wave was moderate, the second wave was deadly and the third wave was relatively mild. I'm inclined to think that it was social distancing, as people were very wary of others and the illness after so many deaths.

Influenza 1918 | American Experience | PBS

Here's an interesting story for you.
The Open-Air Treatment of PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
"When the influenza virus pandemic took hold in the United States in 1918, emergency hospitals were started in schools, halls, and large private houses, and open-air hospitals were being “thrown up” all over the country.1 In the harbor of East Boston, 1200 out of 5100 merchant sailors onboard training ships had contracted influenza. The seriously ill were too numerous for local hospitals to accommodate. The Massachusetts State Guard responded by building the Camp Brooks Open Air Hospital at Corey Hill in Brookline, near Boston. The hospital comprised 13 tents, 12 of which were occupied by one or two patients each and the other by the head nurse. The State Guard took seven hours to erect the tents, make sure the site was properly drained, and provide running water, latrines, and sewerage. Portable buildings were then set up for the medical staff and nurses. From the time the camp opened on September 9, 1918, until its closure a month later on October 12, a total of 351 victims of the pandemic were admitted, one third of whom were diagnosed with pneumonia. In total, 36 of the 351 sailors received at the hospital died.
The treatment at Camp Brooks Hospital took place outdoors, with “a maximum of sunshine and of fresh air day and night.” The medical officer in charge, Major Thomas F. Harrington, had studied the history of his patients and found that the worst cases of pneumonia came from the parts of ships that were most badly ventilated. In good weather, patients were taken out of their tents and put in the open. They were kept warm in their beds at night with hot-water bottles and extra blankets and were fed every few hours throughout the course of the fever. Anyone in contact with them had to wear an improvised facemask, which comprised five layers of gauze on a wire frame covering the nose and mouth. The frame was made out of an ordinary gravy strainer, shaped to fit the face of the wearer and to prevent the gauze filter from touching the nostrils or mouth. Nurses and orderlies were instructed to keep their hands away from the outside of the masks as much as possible. A superintendent made sure the masks were replaced every two hours, were properly sterilized, and contained fresh gauze.

Other measures to prevent infection included the wearing of gloves and gowns, including a head covering. Doctors, nurses, and orderlies had to wash their hands in disinfectant after contact..."

 

[BUF]

Some Mexico Doctors Attacked with Bleach Over Virus Fears

“If people see that you’re a nurse or that you work at a hospital, they look at you like you’re infected,” she told Bloomberg on Thursday.

While doctors from Florida to Italy have been cheered on by the public, in Mexico some have been assaulted in the streets, banned from public transportation, and in a few cases doused in bleach. It happened to a head nurse at Vargas’s hospital, and according to news reports to a doctor in the state of Jalisco and a nurse in Sinaloa.

Mexico isn’t the only country where doctors have been targeted by those who fear they’re spreading the virus. In India, health-care workers have been beaten by mobs or forced out of apartment buildings.

 

[otto]

<respectfully snipped>
"The availability of testing for the coronavirus has been a sore spot in the U.S. for months. President Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday that the U.S. “just passed 5 million Tests, far more than any other country.”
More at link.

The USA has done more testing, but it lags behind other countries regarding tests per population. In fact, Ireland, Israel, Austria, Singapore, UAE, Qatar and many other countries have much higher rate of testing than the USA.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,982,647 Cases and 206,342 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

 

[CeeCeeCat]

This post is a reply to the older person that is feeling blah - know more than likely alot of people young and old are feeling blah at times as well. It is a stressful time we are all going through. What may help is to limit ones self from the Covid news to once or twice a day. Have a morning routine taking care of your shower, hair, teeth and a healthy bit to eat. Do some light arms, legs, stretches or go on a short walk, remember to inhale fresh air hold it then breath slowly out several times. Oxygen is good! Order a new magazine or a new tea flavor. Sort out a stash of pictures and order a photo album if needed. There are many fun things on the internet such as a tour of flower gardens in the US or various countries. Sit outside or by the window and watch/listen to birds then try to identify them. Find your state bird? Put a feeder up, a bird bath. Write the name of the birds down. Keep a fun list of to do! If you have no appetite eat small amounts of healthy food, cottage cheese with canned or fresh peaches, cup of soup, drink enough water. Call a friend, facetime family write a story from your childhood for a grandchild or someone you love. Remember to accept it is ok to feel blah nothing is wrong with you. Sometimes a person needs to pull themselves together and make small changes

This is such a good post - one of the many times I wish I could hit *like* more than once.
I have also been feeling, not ‘blah’ exactly, but definitely finding it hard to stay motivated and focussed.
It has helped me to accept that it’s natural to sometimes feel like this is all one horrible long Groundhog Day and it is ok to stay away from the news for a few days.
I still light a candle each morning and say a prayer for those who are sick or grieving but I no longer watch press conferences and news updates that I know will annoy me beyond reason. I have *normal* non news-related TV shows running in the background as I work each day.
In an effort to get out of my own head, I started journaling again and I’m writing cat tales again - I had an article published last year and have been asked for another piece.
I start and end each day by writing a ‘Three things I’m Grateful for’ list. Physically writing it rather than typing it out makes me appreciate how much I have to be grateful for. Sometimes the list is repetitive, but then there are days when I find new things to be happy for - the frogs are back in the garden, the two chonky squirrels are still around...the cucamelon seeds are finally showing signs of life.
This evening, I’m happy to be sunburnt and tired after a day in the garden. I’ve had a glass of wine and just now, our vet stopped by for a socially distanced chat. I guess for those of us staying safe at home, it’s about recognising there’ll be bad times and understanding - as my beloved granddaddy used to tell me, ‘This too shall pass’.
Stay safe, everyone

 

[Satchie]

I just learned about this:

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

100,000 Americans died. Out of 200,000,000. So, would be the equivalent of 150,000 of us dying from CoVid. It was a terrible pandemic, with more than 1 million deaths all around the world. It was a novel H2N2 virus that came from birds, possibly originating in Hong Kong, although some researchers think it went epidemic first in the US. It's technically called H3H2, since it was a novel form of H2N2. While it was reported on, nearly no one remembers it, because life went on as usual.

As with this pandemic, about half of the dead were very elderly (76+). Another 25% were 65-75.

I was surprised to hear about it, I don't remember it at all (I was 13). No one I know died from viral infections that year, so I'm guessing it was a big city thing.

So we've faced worse things in the past, but without social media and with a very, very different public reaction and a very different governmental reaction.

I hadn't heard of this 1968 pandemic either, tho Hong Kong flu rings a bell.

The virus "was widespread and deadly in the United States [killing an estimated 100,000]. Infection caused upper respiratory symptoms typical of influenza and produced symptoms of chills, fever, and muscle pain and weakness. These symptoms usually persisted for between four and six days. The highest levels of mortality were associated with the most susceptible groups, namely infants and the elderly."
1968 flu pandemic | History, Deaths, & Facts

You know, I think the biggest difference between then and now, is that governments took a passive attitude towards flu. Possibly because they hadn't yet, or were just in the process of wiping out diseases that killed the 'healthy' population: polio, smallpox, measles, venereal disease, pneumonia, etc.

Plus, there were severe problems of poverty in many poorer regions and slums in the US, with lack of food, basic sanitation and any kind of medical care.

So I think, as those more pressing problems were solved, we've turned to remaining problems, that still kill people: flu, heart disease and diabetes, cancer, and so forth. Because, no matter how you cut it, there's always something that's going to get us.

 

[Warwick1991]

I believe the subject of heating and cooling is more directed towards buildings such as nursing homes. It's pretty standard to recirculate the inside air of a building. It's these multiple resident buildings with one central unit that are becoming suspect.

Jmo

I was assuming that @musicaljoke lives with some kind of residential air conditioning system - I don’t know what type - and was concerned about it, at least from my understanding of the post. If @musicaljoke was concerned about A/C, the lower risk of residential A/C systems that do not have shared air with other buildings or spaces may be of interest. A workplace or a nursing home is a different situation.

Commercial and institutional buildings, including nursing homes, usually have systems that have some fresh air intake. The percentage of fresh air introduced varies, and can often be adjusted by the controls. Of course, the lesser the percentage of fresh air introduced, the greater the possibility of the spread of disease in a public building. Also, inadequate fresh air raises the level of CO2 in the building, one of the major causes of sick buildings. Until building owners and design professionals faced waves of lawsuits in recent years, many HVAC systems had a high percentage of recirculated air and poor indoor air quality. One of the first things a major building renovation often addresses - at least for conscientious building owners - is upgrading HVAC systems to increase the intake of fresh air.

Depending on the design, individual rooms in dormitories, assisted living facilities, nursing homes, and apartment buildings can have HVAC units that do not share supply and exhaust air with other units in the same building, and might have lesser risks than, say, a large office building with cubicles where the same system shares and recirculates air from the same space. Many of those units do and can use fresh air.

Individual systems within a residential unit of some type, without any shared exhaust or supply air, should have a lower risk of sharing airborne contaminants if the same people, sans disease, are inside.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Chills, repeated shaking with chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat and a loss of taste or smell.

Those are the six new symptoms the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautioned could be signs of the coronavirus.

The additions come as health experts' understanding of the confounding disease evolves. The CDC previously listed fever, cough and shortness of breath as symptoms.

Shortness of breath was tweaked to "shortness of breath or difficulty breathing" by the CDC.

Coronavirus patients can experience a diversity of issues – from mild symptoms to severe illness. These symptoms generally appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. Patients may be most infectious in the days before they began showing symptoms, studies show.

What we know about COVID-19:What we know about coronavirus keeps changing. Here's all the things you may have missed.

The expanded CDC list is significant: Most testing sites require a patient to have a COVID-19 symptom before the individual can be tested.

The CDC recommends seeking "medical attention immediately" for trouble breathing, persistent pain or pressure on chest, bluish lips or face or a new "confusion or inability to arouse."

Another more recent phenomenon: purple or blue lesions on a patient’s feet and toes, most commonly appearing in children and young adults, dubbed “COVID toes.”

Though experts can’t pinpoint the condition, some hypothesized that it could be excess inflammation, a clotting of blood vessels or a thrombotic disorder known as purpura fulminans.

Coronavirus symptoms: CDC adds six symptoms for COVID-19

FTLOG, we have heard such for so long. It's like when more than 45 days, you had to have come from WUHAN in the last 10 days (ummm, it was shut down over a month before) to be tested and we on threads were yelling at our screens... HELLO... it's not just Wuhan and you are missing it!

And now... golly gee.. difficulty breathing/shortness of breath now both on list. Guess what CDC.. still behind as MANY MANY reports state that folks are not short of breath, they don't have difficulty breathing as they do NOT know their O2 stats are below 93%!!!! Their brain isn't telling them such as Dr. Campbell and Dr. Sehult has been saying.

That is why I have a pulse oximeter.

Oh dear.... I think I'm going to have to break down and call a friend on this.... as it is sooooooooooooooooooo behind it's ridiculous to what is / has been out in science for some time.

And as to the toes... Dr Sheult has been on this for a very long time explaining microthrombi...

I guess we have to deal with administrations being 30-45 days behind.. that is why it is great that we have this place to discuss and to expect what is coming.. and to decide for ourselves.

 

[Tadpole12]

Sunday 26 April Global inequalities

This, is so sad the stats he goes over. Yeah, we have difficulties staying at home... this is reality for others as to global inequalities. Hoping that WHO and others do indeed do the vaccines etc based on need when/if happens.

Testing for the antibodies:

Hoping to get tests "really cheaply and really abundantly soon."

"And someone will become antibody positive just in the few days after symptoms develop, in most cases.
So once the antigen test was positive, the antibody test will be positive shortly after that.
And I would expect the antibody test to remain positive for a year or eighteen months. Although we're not definitive about that yet." - Dr C

 

[zecats]

Creative moms out there are probably already brainstorming. It wouldn't surprise me to see a new type of pacifier that was attached to some sort of mask. Or, maybe a built-in lollipop. Those candy "rings" attached to the inside of a mask could also be an incentive to keep it on! IMO LOL

Not so sure about the binky attachment (pacifier). In our case, his pediatrician wanted him off of one by age 2. Some things to consider though. He starts (supposedly) preschool in September. Hard to picture a classroom full of 3-year olds keeping their masks on for the duration of the school day.

I also have a friend/colleague who teaches preschool and she is suffering from wearing one herself - trying to breathe, not sweat, not steam up her glasses, and then potentially having to wear one in the class room and be heard by the little ones. Will be tricky to figure this one out. JMO

 

[katydid23]

I just coordinated a trip for my aunt to her cardiologist. We had a family member take her to his office, they are seeing very few patients and very limited staff. Doctor and nurse had on PPE from what I was told.
No other patients were in the office during the time she was there.

We had one doctor tell us that she needed to buy a new phone(!?!) to telemedicine because her iPhone was too old. Whatever app that particular doctor is using will not work on older iPads or iPhones which makes it difficult.

And home health is limited on what they can provide and they go all over the county seeing different people. Which is concerning but necessary.

My mom is not capable of using her smart phone anymore. Long story, but her short term memory is too compromised to manage it.

And no one is allowed into her apartment in the senior centre. Not even family. She is on total lock down there.

Someone could go and pick her up if we could manage to get an appointment with her cardiologist at some point. That hasn't happened so far though. They just speak by phone. But are not taking any patients at this point. There were several doctors and nurses in that medical clinic that had serious cases of the virus and they shut down for now.

 

[10ofRods]

"What ever happened to the goal of self isolating so that the virus couldn't find any more victims? When did we give up trying to eradicate the virus?"

The problem is, I think that ^^ is an impossible task. China didnt warn anyone about Wuhan until thousands were already infected, and many were already traveling out of their country, spreading it globally.

it is past the point of 'eradicating it' when a million patients are affected. JMO

Now it is about managing it as best as we can and protecting the most vulnerable, imo.

Although, the way I'm understanding what the infectious disease specialists are saying, we need to get the incidence of CoVid way, way lower. Then, getting CoVid will be about as likely as getting struck by lightening. If the first new case is a dum-dum and runs off to an NBA game, then it's a big flare-up.

But if we can get the new cases down to, say, 10 per week in the US, while there's still a risk, the risk becomes more like driving a lot of highway miles or working in construction.

We had over 39,000 new cases in the U.S., yesterday.