Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #51

[tresir2012]

Raab: UK must find 'new normal' to ease lockdown

PM is back in Downing Street and back to work tomorrow.

"The UK's lockdown needs to be eased carefully, meaning social distancing will remain for "some time", Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has said.

He described the more than 20,000 deaths in the UK as "heartbreaking", but said the toll could have been "much worse" without the strict measures.

However, Mr Raab did hint at some ways schools, sport and businesses could begin to return to "a new normal".

Meanwhile, the PM has arrived back in Downing Street to resume work.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will chair the morning meeting of the government's coronavirus "war cabinet" on Monday, after recovering from Covid-19.

A further 413 people have died with coronavirus in UK hospitals - the lowest number that has been reported in April.

However, experts have previously warned against over-interpreting daily statistics, as they often reflect reporting delays, particularly over weekends - so do not relate directly to the number of deaths that occurred on a certain day.

• Wales virus death toll rises to 788
• Scotland's lockdown exit could differ from UK
• Are the five tests for ending lockdown being met?
• Does hospital deaths milestone mean failure for UK?

The latest official figures bring the total number of deaths to 20,732. The government's data does not include people who die in care homes, in their own homes, or elsewhere in the community."

Continued at link.

 

[Henry2326]

Iowa news today: APRIL 26: 384 more COVID-19 cases, 6 additional deaths 384 new confirmed cases today and 6 more have passed. We now have a total of 5, 476 confirmed cases and 118 have passed away. 1,900 have recovered (35%).
Iowa’s universities plan to bring back students in fall
Source says Prairie Meadows will lay off about 1,300 staff in May

The key sentence in this article is this:

"Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is beginning to ease some coronavirus restrictions even though COVID-19 is still spreading in Iowa."

We have the same issue in my state......and....this is a problem. It's not going to magically go away. The only certainty is that it enhances the "uncertainty" of the future.

 

[jjenny]

Yes, I keep mine on for awhile as well. I went from the pharmacy to a small grocery store. I didnt want to keep handling my mask, by taking it on and off. So I kept it on while driving between destinations.

You have to be careful while driving. Just read about a guy who passed out while wearing N95 mask and crushed his car. Those masks are hard to breathe in for a long time.

 

[CSIDreamer]

When I was a kid, there were sinks in every classroom K-3. After that, there weren't. But the teacher could supervise hand-washing and it was a classroom "job" for two of us to scrub the sink - right after recess and at the end of the day.

It was really good practice in hygiene. We used soap and water, which is way more anti-viral than hand sanitizer.

At the school where I once attended, even the outdoor drinking fountains no longer work. Kids bring their own water bottles. The bathrooms were once supplied with warm and cold water, now it's just cold and there's often no soap.

But teaching little kids to wash their hands is good. They can do it in batches. Of course, I think every primary grade classroom should have a para-educator alongside the teacher and that the teacher should get way more money for her/his job.

We are NOT teaching children hygiene in my area at least. This is horrible but I was a vendor at an elementary school last fall. I went into the girl's restroom. Every. Single. Toilet. Unflushed feces, no toilet paper. I about died. What is wrong with people?

 

[Reasonable & Just]

For The First Time In 6 Weeks, Millions Of Children In Spain Can Play Outside Again

Hope they enjoy themselves, and that any resurgence isn't as bad as the first time around. It must be so hard to be a child now.

 

[cody22]

‘You would think it was summer’: Heat wave brings crowds to Newport, other OC beaches amid coronavirus fears – Orange County Register

Wow !.... Look at open Newport Beach, California..........moo

 

[CSIDreamer]

I agree, but IMO it would be good to hear from 'trusted' economists (an oxymoron maybe), rather than from people with their own agenda. Politicians of every stripe think short term, rather than long term. Will the economy really recover because people can get haircuts and tattoos, which will potentially put continued strain on healthcare systems that would otherwise create much more wealth by treating non-covid patients, just for eg.

The IMF is focussed on 3rd world countries, which will be devastated. But will rich countries really collapse?

For example, this site says the US "GDP will fall about 7.5% (30% divided by 4) in the second quarter."
No, GDP Isn’t Really Going to Shrink 30%

It's not the robust growth we've all been used to, allowing us to buy $800 cellphones, etc., but less than 10% can hardly be collapse.

In the long term, how long would it be reasonable to:

1. Keep "non essential" people unemployed,
2. Expect the government to pay their wages,
3. And where is the money coming from?

Jmo

 

[tresir2012]

In the long term, how long would it be reasonable to:

1. Keep "non essential" people unemployed,
2. Expect the government to pay their wages,
3. And where is the money coming from?

Jmo

I think a 5 weeks lockdown feasibly could be enough. 14 days isolation for those who had it when lockdown commenced then another 14 days for any one infected in that household, plus another 7 days with no further symptoms should do it. Then back to school first then work for those who can't work from home. Testing available at workplaces maybe.

Money will have to come out of taxes in the future. Higher taxes on Cruises, Airports, Flights, Mass Transit etc.

 

[Tadpole12]

'Seaface': Royal Caribbean attempts to trademark sanitary face masks

Now that is creative salesmanship.....moo

Hmm, I was thinking the opposite.

USPTO TSDR Case Viewer

 

[cass523]

"What ever happened to the goal of self isolating so that the virus couldn't find any more victims? When did we give up trying to eradicate the virus?"

The problem is, I think that ^^ is an impossible task. China didnt warn anyone about Wuhan until thousands were already infected, and many were already traveling out of their country, spreading it globally.

it is past the point of 'eradicating it' when a million patients are affected. JMO

Now it is about managing it as best as we can and protecting the most vulnerable, imo.

@katydid23, Yes, thousands were infected. I wanted to add some old info, how the CDC and HHS tried to help in January

"In private phone calls and texts, some Chinese colleagues have indicated that they are overwhelmed and would welcome not just extra hands, but specialized expertise in a couple of fields."

"For more than a month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been offering to send a team of experts to China to observe its coronavirus outbreak and help if it can."

The CDC tried to send a team a few times. Alex Azar, secretary of HHS and The CDC director Redfield first tried on Jan. 6, when there were already 60,000 cases and 1,300 deaths. The WHO also tried a few times and were denied

"Azar told CNN on Feb. 14 that he and CDC director Redfield officially offered to send a CDC team into China on Jan. 6 but still had not received permission for them to enter the country. HHS oversees the CDC."

"The World Health Organization, which made a similar offer about two weeks ago, appears to be facing the same cold shoulder, though a spokeswoman said it is just “sorting out arrangements.”

"Days later, the World Health Organization secured permission to send a team that included two U.S. experts. The team visited between Feb. 16th and 24th. By then, China had reported more than 75,000 cases."

Adding this-Much needed info that could have helped, not done

The two fields in which China appears to need outside help, experts said, are molecular virology and epidemiology.

"The first involves sequencing the virus’s genome and manipulating it to refine diagnostic tests, treatments and vaccine candidates.

The second involves figuring out basic questions like who gets infected and who does not, how long the incubation period is, why some victims die, how many other people each victim infects and how commonly hospital outbreaks are occurring.

“This isn’t rocket science, it’s basic stuff — but it’s been five weeks and we still don’t know the answers,” one expert said.

"It would be very useful, for example, to have a blood test for antibodies. That would make it possible to see how many infected people had recovered, which would make it clearer as to how lethal the virus is — and how widespread.

A major epidemiological failure by China is that the Wuhan authorities appear to have closed and disinfected the seafood market that was the outbreak’s early focus without swabbing individual animals and their cages and without drawing blood from everyone working there. That would have provided a wealth of information about which animal might have been the source of the coronavirus and which people had become infected but survived."

Asked what had happened to the animals — whether they had been burned or buried, for instance, one expert said: “No one can tell me that. I don’t think they know.”

Experts raised a related concern: China’s scientists are given large rewards for publishing in prestigious journals. That creates an incentive to hold back samples and data until publication.

“In an epidemic, you don’t want information held back,” one expert said. “You want transparency.”

C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored for Weeks

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S

 

[tresir2012]

‘You would think it was summer’: Heat wave brings crowds to Newport, other OC beaches amid coronavirus fears – Orange County Register

Wow !.... Look at open Newport Beach, California..........moo

You will have to explain how people can be getting arrested for protesting on the beach when these beaches are so darn crowded anyway. How is that working? How could they possibly arrest 40,000 people. They just couldn't could they.

BTW it is officially summer. My House Martins are back today.

 

[ColyH]

We go to safer-at-home orders here in Colorado starting tomorrow. I understand we need to open the economy back up and we are doing it slowly but we don't know everything about COVID-19. This could be really good for the economy or end up a disaster.

 

[katydid23]

I don't think you can compare the whole of Canada to California. Most of Canada's population is in one province, Ontario. The total population of Ontario at the last census was 14.57 million. That's nearly 40% of Canada's population of 37.6 million.

United States population is around 328.2 million and California's population is around 39.5 million which makes it 12% of America's population.

For a population of 39.5 million I don't think California's death total of 1651 is an alarming number for 12% of total population.

But I find Ontario's death total of 835 for 40% of the country's total population to be amazingly low.

That is amazingly low.

The closest states we have to that population of 14.5 million are Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio.
Only Ohio has a similar very low total of 711 deaths.

PA and IL have double that total.

Pennsylvania: pop=12.8 million
40,049
Recovered
-
Deaths
1,537

Illinois : pop=12.6mill
Confirmed
41,777
Recovered
-
Deaths
1,874

Ohio: pop=11.7 mill
15,587
Recovered
-
Deaths
711

 

[firebird]

As in all things, follow the money. jmo

https://nypost.com/2020/04/22/sorry-contact-tracing-isnt-the-answer-to-ending-lockdowns/


Many governors are claiming they can’t relax limits on business and recreation until their states have an extensive system of “contact tracing.” It’s a worthy aspiration. But they should listen to the scientists who warn that contact tracing won’t work against the novel coronavirus.
* * *
Gov. Cuomo says he envisions hiring an “army” of thousands of “tracers” to call people or go to their homes, notify them that they have been exposed to an infected person and explain that they must get tested and quarantine, if positive.

* * *
On Tuesday, the National Governors’ Association told Congress that states need federal money for contact tracing. By some estimates, it would cost $3.6 billion to hire 100,000 tracers nationwide, and others are suggesting we need triple that number.

* * *
Lancet Global Health scientists conclude that contact tracing will work when “less than 1 percent of transmission occurred before the onset of symptoms.” That’s the opposite of the coronavirus: Victims are most contagious before or just as their symptoms begin, research indicates. By the time they are diagnosed and asked for contacts, those contacts are already infecting others. Oxford University scientists also caution that the coronavirus spreads by too many mechanisms “to be contained by manual contact tracing.”

 

[tresir2012]

"NEW: a lot of data on reported Covid deaths is highly suspect, so we’ve been looking into excess mortality — how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks?"
Story by me, @ChrisGiles_ & @valentinaromei (free to read): Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

"The numbers are remarkable, and put to bed the idea that Covid-19 is akin to a bad flu season.
You can clearly see that in almost every country, spikes in mortality are *far* higher than what we see from flu etc (grey lines are historical death numbers)" Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

"The picture is even more stark in the cities & regions hardest hit by outbreaks.
In Ecuador’s Guayas province, 245 Covid deaths have been reported to date, but all-cause mortality data show *more than 10,000* extra deaths since 1 March compared to the average in recent years". John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

"So far we’ve analysed data from 14 countries, finding 122,000 more deaths in recent weeks than the usual average for those same places and same weeks.
This is an increase of 52%. Crucially, that’s also 45,000 more deaths than accounted for in reported Covid deaths." John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

"The data also highlight another point I’ve been making:
Covid outbreaks are much better understood as happening on a local than national scale.
Here are excess deaths across England & Wales.
London deaths have almost doubled vs usual. In the South West, uptick is much smaller". John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

"Notes on methodology:
• In each case we establish a historical baseline using deaths in the same country/city for the same weeks in 2015-2019
• Our excess deaths are the 2020 number minus that average"

John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter

Those graphs are pretty amazing. TY for finding and posting them. Denmark is the only country that does not seem to have the big hump.

 

[anneg]

My diary lasted one day, and then I got depressed, too.

I've kept my journal going although sometimes I miss two or three days and am forced to try to remember what we did when. My journal is pretty dull because I write about what I cooked for dinner, what food we purchased, where one or both of us went (e.g. grocery store food pickup, local farmers market), what the weather is like, what my spouse is doing that's annoying me, etc.!

 

[Trino]

LOCAL UPDATES: Houston restaurant receives warning from HFD to violating stay-at-home orders


For serving Houston LE Officers outdoors free food......moo

Wouldn't you think the LE officers knew better? Intentionally violating the order doesn't seem very professional.

 

[Henry2326]

@katydid23, Yes, thousands were infected. I wanted to add some old info, how the CDC and HHS tried to help in January

"In private phone calls and texts, some Chinese colleagues have indicated that they are overwhelmed and would welcome not just extra hands, but specialized expertise in a couple of fields."

"For more than a month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been offering to send a team of experts to China to observe its coronavirus outbreak and help if it can."

The CDC tried to send a team a few times. Alex Azar, secretary of HHS and The CDC director Redfield first tried on Jan. 6, when there were already 60,000 cases and 1,300 deaths. The WHO also tried a few times and were denied

"Azar told CNN on Feb. 14 that he and CDC director Redfield officially offered to send a CDC team into China on Jan. 6 but still had not received permission for them to enter the country. HHS oversees the CDC."

"The World Health Organization, which made a similar offer about two weeks ago, appears to be facing the same cold shoulder, though a spokeswoman said it is just “sorting out arrangements.”

"Days later, the World Health Organization secured permission to send a team that included two U.S. experts. The team visited between Feb. 16th and 24th. By then, China had reported more than 75,000 cases."

Adding this-Much needed info that could have helped, not done

The two fields in which China appears to need outside help, experts said, are molecular virology and epidemiology.

"The first involves sequencing the virus’s genome and manipulating it to refine diagnostic tests, treatments and vaccine candidates.

The second involves figuring out basic questions like who gets infected and who does not, how long the incubation period is, why some victims die, how many other people each victim infects and how commonly hospital outbreaks are occurring.

“This isn’t rocket science, it’s basic stuff — but it’s been five weeks and we still don’t know the answers,” one expert said.

"It would be very useful, for example, to have a blood test for antibodies. That would make it possible to see how many infected people had recovered, which would make it clearer as to how lethal the virus is — and how widespread.

A major epidemiological failure by China is that the Wuhan authorities appear to have closed and disinfected the seafood market that was the outbreak’s early focus without swabbing individual animals and their cages and without drawing blood from everyone working there. That would have provided a wealth of information about which animal might have been the source of the coronavirus and which people had become infected but survived."

Asked what had happened to the animals — whether they had been burned or buried, for instance, one expert said: “No one can tell me that. I don’t think they know.”

Experts raised a related concern: China’s scientists are given large rewards for publishing in prestigious journals. That creates an incentive to hold back samples and data until publication.

“In an epidemic, you don’t want information held back,” one expert said. “You want transparency.”

C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored for Weeks

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S

WHO visited China on January 20th and 21st.
"On 20-21 January 2020, a World Health Organization (WHO) delegation conducted a field visit to Wuhan to learn about the response to 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCOV). The mission was part of the on-going close collaboration between WHO and Chinese national, provincial, and Wuhan health authorities in responding to 2019-nCoV.
The delegation visited the Wuhan Tianhe Airport, Zhongnan hospital, Hubei provincial CDC, including the BSL3 laboratory in China’s Center for Disease Control (CDC). The delegation observed and discussed active surveillance processes, temperature screening at the airport, laboratory facilities, infection prevention and control measures at the hospital and its associated fever clinics, and the deployment of the rRT-PCR test kit to detect the virus."
Mission summary: WHO Field Visit to Wuhan, China 20-21 January 2020

Jan 3: the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Robert Redfield, received a call from his Chinese counterpart with an official warning. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, was alerted to the virus around the same time.

Intelligence reports warned about a pandemic in January. Trump reportedly ignored them.

Warnings Ignored: A Timeline of Trump’s COVID-19 Response - The Bulwark

Trump’s pandemic response was hindered by missed opportunities, ignored warnings

Jan 12: China submitted genome sequence for COVID-19 to WHO.

AP report on China’s ‘delayed’ epidemic response conveniently passes blame - Global Times

 

[ilovewings]

I hadn't heard of this 1968 pandemic either, tho Hong Kong flu rings a bell.

The virus "was widespread and deadly in the United States [killing an estimated 100,000]. Infection caused upper respiratory symptoms typical of influenza and produced symptoms of chills, fever, and muscle pain and weakness. These symptoms usually persisted for between four and six days. The highest levels of mortality were associated with the most susceptible groups, namely infants and the elderly."
1968 flu pandemic | History, Deaths, & Facts

You know, I think the biggest difference between then and now, is that governments took a passive attitude towards flu. Possibly because they hadn't yet, or were just in the process of wiping out diseases that killed the 'healthy' population: polio, smallpox, measles, venereal disease, pneumonia, etc.

Plus, there were severe problems of poverty in many poorer regions and slums in the US, with lack of food, basic sanitation and any kind of medical care.

So I think, as those more pressing problems were solved, we've turned to remaining problems, that still kill people: flu, heart disease and diabetes, cancer, and so forth. Because, no matter how you cut it, there's always something that's going to get us.

I hadn't heard of this 1968 pandemic either, tho Hong Kong flu rings a bell.

The virus "was widespread and deadly in the United States [killing an estimated 100,000]. Infection caused upper respiratory symptoms typical of influenza and produced symptoms of chills, fever, and muscle pain and weakness. These symptoms usually persisted for between four and six days. The highest levels of mortality were associated with the most susceptible groups, namely infants and the elderly."
1968 flu pandemic | History, Deaths, & Facts

You know, I think the biggest difference between then and now, is that governments took a passive attitude towards flu. Possibly because they hadn't yet, or were just in the process of wiping out diseases that killed the 'healthy' population: polio, smallpox, measles, venereal disease, pneumonia, etc.

Plus, there were severe problems of poverty in many poorer regions and slums in the US, with lack of food, basic sanitation and any kind of medical care.

So I think, as those more pressing problems were solved, we've turned to remaining problems, that still kill people: flu, heart disease and diabetes, cancer, and so forth. Because, no matter how you cut it, there's always something that's going to get us.

never knew there was a pandemic in 1968- i was young then and lived in New York-

 

[Seattle1]

We go to safer-at-home orders here in Colorado starting tomorrow. I understand we need to open the economy back up and we are doing it slowly but we don't know everything about COVID-19. This could be really good for the economy or end up a disaster.

What a double-edged sword. Considering the population that lives paycheck to paycheck and have not worked for a month, they'll not be able to pay rent on May 1, car payments, insurance, etc.. Same for small businesses that didn't get in on the government PPP loans -- no business can survive without revenue and their recovery will not occur in 30 days.

It's now reported that mortgage lenders reacted last week by raising minimum credit scores and downpayment as they are fearful of the financially recovering borrowers after mandatory lock-down. Also suspended offering FHA (govt backed) mortgages.

Seems it's a disaster either way. Stay safe.

ETA: Add link about credit card debt
Credit Card Issuers Offer Customer Assistance In Response To Coronavirus | Bankrate