Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

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  • #541
10ofRods said:
Daily border crossings into Denmark are much higher. Norway and Sweden share a nearly unused border with Finland yes. Have you looked at maps that show population density? No one is worried about CoVid in the far north of either Sweden or Norway and virtually no one comes or goes into Norway or Sweden from Finland.

Neither Norway nor Sweden has many or any cases in those latitudes and near the border of Finland (which itself has very limited movement across its borders expect transit through airports by Aeroflot and a few others). Take a look at the map below - look where the population in Sweden actually lives.

That's why I also included St Petersburg in the discussion. Finland hooks up to Russia and Russia only. Russia does not have open borders into Europe and many geographers would not call Russia "Europe" (and Russians themselves would agree - they like the term Eurasia for their continental situation).

Europe is a cultural construct, not a geographical one. Unlike all the other continental designation, there are no firm geological boundaries to Europe and Asia. And Finland is closed off from the rest of Europe (if it's Europe and not Eurasia) by Russia and always will be. Finns also do not speak an Indo-European language - and do not consider themselves "European" by that standard.

Population density map of Sweden : europe

As you can probably guess, the deaths are mostly occurring in the red areas.

Interestingly, Finland is the least densely populated nation in Europe and so far only about 210 deaths there (no where near its border with Norway).

What I was trying to refer to is that trucks, trains, etc go from the rest of Europe (which has been hit very hard by this pandemic) to Denmark, so we'd expect (and do find) more cases than in Norway. Having water between the major CoVid pumps and one's own land is helpful. So Sweden thought it would have a different course.

It did not. So, since we've now established that there's no high CoVid rate in Northern Sweden - again, the question, is why is it so much higher?

They didn't shut schools, businesses or have any travel restrictions. We await antibody testing for their population, but I'm guessing we'll find that cryptic transmission occurred all over the place and that as many as 40% of Swedes will test positive for CoVid Ab by August. Including the children.
Click to expand...
Denmark and Sweden are connected.

Øresund Bridge - Wikipedia
 
  • #542
The Night Watchman said:
This is single biggest step that can be taken. The government must pay to keep at-risk people home while others go back to work. It's pretty simple.

Yesterday, I posted the story of a 70 year woman with a lung condition. She worked as a Walmart cashier and died of COVID-19, as did her husband. She never should have died, and it happened because nobody stood up and said that there was something wrong with the picture. Are we spending trillions of dollars in the right places?
Click to expand...

Oh, that is so sad. And awful. Yes, employers should be required to continue healthcare, but surely many would need the State's help to do it? Too bad we don't have universal healthcare. This would be a good time for it.

katydid23 said:
Maybe I am wrong, but I think the important thing will be what happens down the road in Sweden.

When the neighbouring countries get their 2nd wave, will Sweden have one?

I wonder, because there is a chance that Sweden will have hit the tipping point in immunity percentage by that time. If there strategy worked correctly, they should not have a large 2nd or 3rd wave, like most other countries will experience.

Waiting to see....
Click to expand...

Good questions. I too am waiting. I want Sweden's Ab rates so bad! Norway may be able to avoid a second wave, due to its geographic position and its ability to provide many essential products for itself. But Denmark will likely have a second wave if it opens its borders. Germany is seeing a bump up - not exactly a giant wave - after reopening some businesses.

It's going to be a looong wait, I'm afraid, until air travel resumes in anything like half of normal numbers. The EU will eventually reopen its borders to each other, but I think everyone wants to see cases go down in Belgium, Spain and Italy (even further than they already are). I bet the EU will not allow UK citizens inside until cases there are very much lower.

For me, watching England/UK is extremely enlightening. The IMHE data are already showing higher numbers than their most recently modified projection, because UK is hovering around 600 deaths per day (that's estimated the still to be reported care home cases and the homeless cases - UK has a lot of people sleeping rough). The model said they'd be at 500 today and near to 450 tomorrow. The number of new cases is going in the wrong direction, by a rather dramatic amount - so in a week or two, the death total may go up.

So, it seems likely UK will see at least 1-2 more days with above 700 deaths, and probably an average of 400-500 deaths over the next 10 days. They have so many people in ICU beds long term, that new acute patients aren't getting treatments they need (ventilators still very much needed in UK). That's probably a main factor in the rise. With cases tending to rise in linear fashion, the deaths will too.

For my guess to be accurate, though, UK really needs to find a way to have less than 739 deaths a day, as it did over the last 24 hour reporting period.

Coronavirus UK: how many confirmed cases are there in my area?

As always, the grim death chart is the last chart in a series.
 
  • #543
10ofRods said:
I never go by "total deaths." That's meaningless. Divide by total population for a more meaningful number. These numbers are posted twice on this thread - in fact you posted some of them yourself.

I'm not much interested in "total deaths," so if a post doesn't make it clear that it's either a per case or, better, a per capita rate, I don't find the information useful. Comparing total US deaths (with 330 million people) to UK (with 67 million) doesn't tell us anything. We need to do per capita.

BTW, England has a huge chunk of those deaths, with only 376 deaths in Northern Ireland (pop 1.8M). If England were looked at without the rest of the UK, its rate would be about 35.

Per 100,000, US sits at around 20 deaths, UK is at 29-30. Let's remember that New York is at 123 per 100,000 of its statewide population - it must be much higher for NYC, especially the boroughs.

Per Capita CoVid

Note especially UK and Sweden - the only two dark red countries I can see.

Also note how thoroughly CoVid is entrenched in the Western Hemisphere. While some African nations are beginning report cases, in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in places where airplane flights have been few and far between (and mostly to Northern Africa or the Middle East), numbers reported are still very low. It will always be hard to know about Africa, given the difficulty of reporting. But it does seem to have been blocked by the Sahara and the already existing border issues in Africa.

And while Russia is that nice tan color, most of the reported cases are in Moscow, which would be a red zone if it were separate from the rest of Russia.
Click to expand...
I go by the total deaths as that figure is the one we are looking at regarding peaking. It may also be a good idea to look at the UK weekly figure because there looks to be some under reporting at weekends IMO.
 
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  • #544
  • #545
Lilibet said:
There are officially 17 reason that Oregon requires a pump attendant. Read this article for more detail. These reasons can be condensed down to 3.
  1. Safety – As a class 1 flammable liquid, some basic safety procedures should be followed. Since a cashier can’t watch all the pumps all the time, trained attendants are there. This also allows people to reduce personal injury or exposure to the fumes. In addition, attendants are likely to notice safety issues on a vehicle such as a low tire or faulty windshield wipers and such report to the driver to keep them safe. The law specifically mentions the weather we have in Oregon as a safety reason: the risk of slipping in the rain. Supposedly, all these benefits reduces insurance liability to the service stations.
  2. Equable Treatment of Seniors & Disabled – A senior or a disabled person my find it harder to get out of their vehicle and perform the functions of pumping their gas. Because of this they would be forced to go to a full service station and pay a premium for this service, which isn’t equitable.
  3. Jobs – This is the most commonly cited reason for continuing to employ service station attendants and is part of the statue. The cost that an attendant incurs per gallon wasn’t considered to be excessive especially since Oregon doesn’t have a sales tax. As minimum wages increase, this may change.
Why does Oregon not allow people to pump their own gas?

More at link in this article that’s pretty true and humorous...
17 reasons why you still can't pump your own gas in most of Oregon

I, for one, LOVE not having to pump my own gas, especially now that I’m an old lady. :D
Click to expand...

interesting
I accidentely went into a full-service station once and it felt SO weird not to pump my own
we just came from the gas station/store (which also sells booze) and there was a long lineup outside - all social distancing but no masks
after that we were at a drugstore - all kinds of people shopping in pairs! and very few masks - I stayed in the car both times and people-watched
previous to both we were at the vet where the doors are locked and you pay over the phone and they bring your pet/items to a table outside - no contact
 
  • #546
  • #547
Lots of positive news at the link, but the bolded part jumped out at me given all the discussion here about the elderly and children:

The overall cumulative COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate is 40.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people 65 years and older (131.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (63.7 per 100,000). o Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) are higher than hospitalization rates for influenza at comparable time points* during the past 5 influenza seasons. o For people 65 years and older, current COVID-19 hospitalization rates are similar to those observed during comparable time points* during recent high severity influenza seasons. o For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-05-01-2020.pdf
 
  • #548
  • #549
FLORIDA

With Florida reporting 962 cases of the virus in 93 of its long-term care facilities, two large associations representing long-term care facilities and home health care providers in the state are asking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to protect nursing homes and caregivers from lawsuits that question how they handle residents with the virus.

On April 3, the Florida Health Care Association sent a letter to DeSantis requesting “immunity from any liability, civil or criminal” that may result from treating individuals with COVID-19 during this public health emergency. The protection would extend to all healthcare facilities such as nursing homes, hospitals, or assisted living centers and would cover employees, volunteers, contractors and home healthcare workers.

There should be an exception, the Florida Health Care Association acknowledges. It would be for any intentional criminal misconduct, gross negligence, reckless misconduct, or intentional infliction of harm by the healthcare facility or professional providing healthcare services — unless the negligence was created by a staffing shortage.

DeSantis has not responded to the letter from the Florida Health Care Association. However, Mary Mayhew, secretary of Florida’s Agency for Healthcare Administration, told nursing home members last week that the governor is aware of their concerns about liability.

Florida’s nursing homes ask the governor to protect them from coronavirus lawsuits
 
  • #550
  • #551
  • #552
  • #553
  • #554
  • #555
  • #556
10ofRods said:
Oh, that is so sad. And awful. Yes, employers should be required to continue healthcare, but surely many would need the State's help to do it? Too bad we don't have universal healthcare. This would be a good time for it.



Good questions. I too am waiting. I want Sweden's Ab rates so bad! Norway may be able to avoid a second wave, due to its geographic position and its ability to provide many essential products for itself. But Denmark will likely have a second wave if it opens its borders. Germany is seeing a bump up - not exactly a giant wave - after reopening some businesses.

It's going to be a looong wait, I'm afraid, until air travel resumes in anything like half of normal numbers. The EU will eventually reopen its borders to each other, but I think everyone wants to see cases go down in Belgium, Spain and Italy (even further than they already are). I bet the EU will not allow UK citizens inside until cases there are very much lower.

For me, watching England/UK is extremely enlightening. The IMHE data are already showing higher numbers than their most recently modified projection, because UK is hovering around 600 deaths per day (that's estimated the still to be reported care home cases and the homeless cases - UK has a lot of people sleeping rough). The model said they'd be at 500 today and near to 450 tomorrow. The number of new cases is going in the wrong direction, by a rather dramatic amount - so in a week or two, the death total may go up.

So, it seems likely UK will see at least 1-2 more days with above 700 deaths, and probably an average of 400-500 deaths over the next 10 days. They have so many people in ICU beds long term, that new acute patients aren't getting treatments they need (ventilators still very much needed in UK). That's probably a main factor in the rise. With cases tending to rise in linear fashion, the deaths will too.

For my guess to be accurate, though, UK really needs to find a way to have less than 739 deaths a day, as it did over the last 24 hour reporting period.

Coronavirus UK: how many confirmed cases are there in my area?

As always, the grim death chart is the last chart in a series.
Click to expand...
Hi @10ofRods do you have a source re acute patients not receiving the care they need? I havent read this myself in UK news. I am aware that the emergency Nightingale facility in London has barely been used. Also another emergency facility at Stoke Mandeville hospital, at the paralympic stadium, has not been used. Another in the north of England has also not needed to open. Message here is that (aside from PPE debacles) the NHS is coping very well and the measures taken to ensure we protected the NHS were successful for this reason.

I havent seen anything in the news about people not having access to ventilators if needed.

In the UK, our population density combined with our being such a major transport hub have a bearing IMO. We have remote areas, which are also geographically large, such as Scottish highlands and islands, but compared to a lot of countries we are probably packed close together. Also, we have a very multicultural population and sadly the proportion of BAME deaths is not in line with general percentage of the population. Heathrow is one of the busiest airports in the world (7th or thereabouts). In short, a whole lot of people in not a whole lot of space, many of whom seem to be higher risk for reasons as yet not fully understood.

The R number being less than one is seen as very positive here and we are glad to know that we have apparently passed peak. Lockdown remains in place and is overall well observed or enforced by police. Forthcoming weeks are crucial we know and we are watching and waiting for the government to make good decisions (whatever they may be! Rather them than me).

Actual numbers of deaths will remain horribly high due to nature taking its course unfortunately and it is inevitable that new cases will keep coming in from care homes.

Furlough is available to the end of June, which means that companies such as mine can be sure our people will be paid at least 80% up until then. So that clock is ticking in the background, although it was extended once already.

I think what I'm saying is that the general mood here right now is one of cautious optimism, at least amongst my work, friend and family circles. The anxiety is trusting people to follow guidelines when lockdown begins to rise and of course the autumn/winter for which I will definitely be preparing for a second phase.

All JMO of course.
 
  • #557
  • #558
tresir2012 said:
Denmark and Sweden are connected.

Øresund Bridge - Wikipedia
Click to expand...

Not by land. Yes, there's a bridge - it goes over water. It has been shut. It's really easy to shut a bridge or a highway.

Land borders are very different and when we say "contiguous" in geography, we are referring to land borders.

There's also a tunnel between Denmark and Sweden (also closed). There's a tunnel between UK and France but they are not "connected" or "contiguous."

Land crossings and boundaries are a risk and make CoVid issues harder (some states and nations have little ability to close all their land borders - NI vs Ireland is one of those situations, there are many, many others).

I'll use the word "contiguous" in future. Nations are "connected" by airplanes as well, but that's not what I meant.
 
  • #559
tresir2012 said:
I go by the total deaths as that figure is the one we are looking at regarding peaking. It may also be a good idea to look at the UK weekly figure because there looks to be some under reporting at weekends IMO.
Click to expand...

Sure - peaking (which is clearly not exactly a statistical concept at this point), use that. But don't compare two nations with different populations as to how they're handling things.

And by the way, it would still be interesting to hear your explanation of why Sweden is having such a different course. Let's allow that lots of people from Copenhagen are going in and out of Sweden (which is unlikely, but since you think the bridge is a connection, then....why is Denmark so much better off in terms of per capita deaths than Sweden? Same weather, same food, same demographics, Denmark is even closer to UK and Italy and has regular contact via fishing with UK and Belgium, so you'd think Denmark would be importing COVid from elsewhere).

Sweden is a step further away. I seriously doubt anyone from Denmark is happy to go to Sweden right now (essential workers are hopefully using protection). But why is Sweden's situation so much worse off - right now?

Who is transmitting it? Surely not Danes coming into Sweden (although...Denmark may become concerned about Swedes coming to Denmark, as Canada rightfully did with Americans - and as some states have done with quarantining New York, New Jersey and Florida).
 
  • #560
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