Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #54

[imstilla.grandma]

Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.

In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.

The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer-reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.
Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original

 

[nhmemorymaker]

FL, GA, and SC sample sequences are found nested within a small USA cluster among otherwise mostly Asian sequences.......
Nextstrain on Twitter

whew. this is still too complex to understand... wonder if the FL GA sequences end up in the Asian sequences because of all the cruise ships that land in FL,

 

[tresir2012]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article242480931.html

It was March 1 when Florida announced its first two cases of the novel coronavirus, a 29-year-old Hillsborough County woman who had traveled to Italy and a 63-year-old Manatee County man. But buried in data recently published by the Florida health department is an intriguing revelation: The spread of COVID-19 in Florida likely began in January, if not earlier.

State health officials have documented at least 170 COVID-19 patients reporting symptoms between Dec. 31, 2019, and February 29, according to a Miami Herald analysis of state health data. Of them, 40 percent had no apparent contact with someone else with the virus. The majority had not traveled.

At least 26 people who contracted COVID-19 started showing symptoms in late December or January — and at least eight of them both had not traveled and did not have contact with another person infected by the virus. The trend continued into February.

 

[BUF]

Disney: Shanghai park reopening with masks; how about US parks, cruises?

Disney's Shanghai theme park to reopen May 11 with precautions; what about US parks?

 

[tresir2012]

Found a gov.uk link to all the Scientific advice given to the UK government.

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response

 

[SouthAussie]

So do they only need 40% take up for it to be effective?

Yes, that is what they say. Although I am unable to find anywhere that explains how they arrived at that number.
Perhaps the difference in required app download numbers is due to the difference in current levels of infection in each country?
I read somewhere that Singapore had a 20% uptake of their app, and that is still effective.


Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that wasn’t enough and used an analogy to Australians’ love of the outdoors to push for 40 percent of the population to sign up, the level government officials say is needed for the app to be effective — holding what Australian officials believe is a critical amount of data to help counter any possible new spread.

Contact tracing experts in other countries suggest a higher level of compliance is needed. In Britain, the National Health Service was advised that 80 percent is the target rate for a viable smartphone virus tracking and warning system, the BBC reported.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...67ae88-89dd-11ea-80df-d24b35a568ae_story.html

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Snipped

Managing expectations is key, imo. Having a false sense that life will bounce back to "normal" is going to be a let down. Hopelessness is a concern - but it can be prevented with a plan based on reality. False hope is not helpful.

jmo

my ultimate fear is chaos.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Protesters once again march on Capitol steps demanding state to reopen

I know that my state has partially re-opened and it was needed for employment but I will not lie, I am scared to death. I am not ready to go face people at work. I have done my work from home for 7 weeks and I am lucky to be able to work from home but I know that employers like mine will demand that we come back to work, they are paying big lease money on offices. I have until May 15th before it becomes a real threat of returning to work. Going to Wal Mart gives me anxiety attacks.

My former son-in-law works at a local hospital and told me that the news is not telling the truth, more cases of the virus than being reported in our area. One lady that was a school teacher handing out lunches for kids, got sick one day and died the next day from the virus. This lady was in her early 30's. My Step daughter had a heart attack caused by the virus and she is in her 30's. I am so paranoid and just want to crawl under a rock.

Thanks for listening, my anxiety attack kicking in. The dentist office called me today and wanted if I wanted to schedule an appointment for a cleaning this week, I told them no I am not ready .

I truly understand that the US workers need to get back to work, need their paychecks but I still feel it is too soon. Maybe if I was not able to work from home, I would definitely feel different.

I feel like we are all in the Twilight Zone except this is reality and it stinks.

I hear you. I feel a bit guilty in knowing I am safely retired, and yet so active with my gardens, some of my groups meet in our cars in a church yard, and have constant sunshine and could now go to the beach if I so choose. But I am also seeing so many less masks now. What was looking so normal a couple of weeks ago is starting to look strange again. So be it. All the unmasked are not going to remember my face anyway! ha.
Having to think about all those walls and massive air conditioning systems around you... yuck. I hope your employer is reasonable...

 

[Gardener1850]

If so, I'm SOL. The only person I'm taller than is my sister.

Wear a hat with a big brim and keep your head down when passing people. I've been wearing a gardening hat I own that is washable every time I go to the store. That way if someone tall without a mask is coughing above me the droplets will fall on the hat not my head/hair. I remove my hat and place in a bag before getting in my car and then wash the hat with my clothes when I get home.

MOO.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Gotta tell ya i am not going to worry about my shoes--you can make yourself
crazy if you think about every tiny possibility of how you can contract this virus-it
would be different if i actually walked around a hospital with lots of covid patients-but
i wont be doing that. i dont plan to touch my shoes, then touch my face either. a person
needs to evaluate the most likely mode of transmission of the virus, and for me shoes
are way down the list

When I look at all the "young" workers in the grocery..i do think about shoes though. i wear little socks, and sometimes spray them with disinfectant when i get home, and rip them off before the disinfectant hits my skin. Most the time I am just barefoot in my dirt...which probably has more damaging bugs and critters! so be it.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Thank you everyone for keeping things up to date here I pop in and catch up as I can and really appreciate it! My son and DIL are (hopefully) having the first grandbaby in the next few hours!! She went in earlier to "get checked" after 4 days of contractions and before they sent her home, they did the COVID19 test. This is in Washington State. They won't have results for 24 hours and told her she could go to another place if she wanted faster results. Anyway, they just went back in and are now in a room and she has to wear a mask during labor and delivery as the results for the test won't be back until morning. They didn't test my son but he is wearing a mask too, of course. I made a ton of masks so those came in handy.

How exciting! Congrats!

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Yeah, but we're not going to (follow the precautions). Virtually no one is. As we reopen (my county is having a soft reopen as I type), everyone is acting exactly and precisely as if it were before CoVid (except those of us who are "virtue signaling" by wearing masks and social distancing). Plus, apparently many people are so exuberant and individualistic and impulsive they cannot help but rush up to people they know (or barely know) and get really close.

Everyone is "vulnerable" in the sense that, except for under-20s (who are going to get older), people can have lifelong consequences from CoVid. But hey. It'll only be 2-5% of us.

(When I ask students whether they'd walk to their cars if there if 1 out 50 of them would drop into a 100 foot hole in the ground, they say "no"; when I ask them if they would walk outside in there were lots of bees - and only 1 person in our building of 1000 students would get stung - 80% say no)

But when it comes to social distancing, it's different. There's no inherent "sting," it's so pleasurable. Frankly, what I'm reading in my online classes seems to say that many are relieved they no longer have to go to family gatherings (old people there) but can go out with their friends instead.

So yes, people will die, mostly older people (which has some social costs, if those people are our best doctors and so forth) but hey, it's okay if we have to relearn many things from scratch (at least from the POV of the learners).

The thing is, the very people who don't want the distancing and want to "get back to work" may find that the very people who could afford their services (nurses, doctors, techs, accountants, business managers, teachers, computer scientists, etc, etc) are not going to go to stores, restaurants, etc.

What then? Stores are closing (permanently) in locations all around where I live. It's very very sad. And I think we will keep printing money, so costs will be passed on more or less equally to everyone, thereby hurting the poorer groups even more. A regressive tax, so to speak.

We need a good treatment and some vaccines.

If it mutates even a little (like the version causing the Kawasaki's) we are truly screwed and it will be truly tragic, but definitely brought upon ourselves as a species.

There are some real lessons in your words... I hope high schools are developing some thoughtful curriculum. But then again, we have given up Civics and Ethics courses....... sigh.

(When I ask students whether they'd walk to their cars if there if 1 out 50 of them would drop into a 100 foot hole in the ground, they say "no"; when I ask them if they would walk outside in there were lots of bees - and only 1 person in our building of 1000 students would get stung - 80% say no)

 

[Henry2326]

In a major testing effort led by UC San Francisco in the Mission District, 2.1% of the 4,160 people tested for COVID-19 were positive.

Of those who tested positive, 90% have been leaving their homes for work.

Ninety percent of the people who were PCR positive had no capability of working from home during shelter in place. These were frontline workers, they had to work outside of the home, either that or they were furloughed or unemployed,” Dr. Diane Havlir, chief of the UCSF Division of HIV, Infection, and Global Disease at San Francisco General, told KCBS.

Ninety-five percent of positive individuals were of Latinx heritage.

90% of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in Mission District study had one thing in common

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Thank you everyone for keeping things up to date here I pop in and catch up as I can and really appreciate it! My son and DIL are (hopefully) having the first grandbaby in the next few hours!! She went in earlier to "get checked" after 4 days of contractions and before they sent her home, they did the COVID19 test. This is in Washington State. They won't have results for 24 hours and told her she could go to another place if she wanted faster results. Anyway, they just went back in and are now in a room and she has to wear a mask during labor and delivery as the results for the test won't be back until morning. They didn't test my son but he is wearing a mask too, of course. I made a ton of masks so those came in handy.

These are sweet words... Love in the Time of Covid. I hope you are all putting together a very special scrap book for this little child to have in the future. Keep us informed. Good thoughts for us all..all day.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

What state is USA/UF ?

Indonesia?? University of Florida?

 

[Henry2326]

New University Of Penn Model Predicts 350,000 Deaths By End Of June If All States Fully Reopen

Link to Model: Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator: Health and Economic Effects of State Reopenings — Penn Wharton Budget Model

They are buying in to the possibility of 3,000 deaths per day in June. The range here is
1,950 per day with STAY at home orders
2,700 with partial openings
5,833 per day with full openings.

To me, the important take-away is that I've not seen a curve that tends down. All the forecasted daily death curves trend up.....frankly, that's scary.
That means we have to depend on government officials to close it back up when the numbers skyrocket. That's also scary.....

 

[cody22]

West Texas Virus report - Good morning to all. We are well and safe, the bills are paid, and we are all eating. I hope this note finds the same for all of you and your people.......Yall stay safe and have some fun today.....moo

 

[cody22]

https://abc7news.com/gavin-newsom-beach-closure-california-closures-orange-county/6153685/

California Virus News.....moo

 

[tresir2012]

New virus antibody test is 'fast and accurate'

A new "fast and accurate" coronavirus antibody test has been developed by scientists in Scotland and Switzerland.

Quotien said each serological screening machine has capacity for up to 3,000 tests a day and produces results in 35 minutes with 99.8% accuracy.

The blood-screening firm is now keen to hold talks with UK ministers amid interest from Europe for the machines.

The Scottish government said it will explore "all options" as they become available.

Quotient said the test can spot whether a person has developed antibodies to Covid-19.

Understanding immunity could help ease lockdown if it is clear who is not at risk of catching or spreading the virus.

'Outstanding performance'
Chief executive Franz Walt was managing director of the Singapore-based Roche Laboratory which developed the first diagnostic test for Sars in 2003.

He said: "We are truly proud to have developed such a fast and accurate test. This is an outstanding performance by our teams in both Edinburgh and Switzerland.

"We now want to make sure that we can help as many people as possible as quickly as possible. We have strong roots in the UK and want to speak to ministers there so MosaiQ can be used in the amazing national effort to tackle coronavirus and relaunch the economy.

"We realise ministers and the NHS are incredibly busy but are keen to talk given the strong interest from across Europe in the product."

European regulatory approval
Quotient said it has 12 screening machines available which can process up to 36,000 tests a day or 252,000 a week.

A further 20 are expected to be ready by the end of the year.

The firm's headquarters are in Eysins, Nyon, but its Scottish research division is based in Penicuik, Midlothian. It also has a corporate office in Edinburgh.

While the UK government says it has laboratory capability to test for coronavirus immunity, it is currently being used for survey testing of existing blood samples and the capacity is not known.

Continued at link.

 

[bears10]

Peer reviewed cloth mask study:

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers

Results:

Results The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory-confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.

Again, these appear to be either single layer cloth masks and homemade masks of an unspecified type (for the cloth masks).

I mean, did you read the follow up link that the authors wrote in light of the virus?

idk why it seems like some people are so negative about homemade cloth masks. For most people, that’s all they have (or at one point, had) access to. Masks are to protect others from YOUR germs.