Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #59

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  • #601
Here is a helpful infographic (IMO) with "harm reduction" tips to reduce coronavirus transmission. I like it!
EYUb3QlWAAMDbIa

Julia Marcus, Ph.D., M.P.H., on Twitter
 
  • #602
Coronavirus may have been in Europe in NOVEMBER: Scientists hunting for France's 'patient zero' discover X-rays showing person with Covid symptoms two months before first cases declared

Coronavirus may have been in Europe in NOVEMBER: Scientists hunting for France's 'patient zero' discover X-rays showing person with Covid symptoms two months before first cases declared

Bhvishya Patel For Mailonline
8 hrs ago
...
The coronavirus may have arrived in Europe as early as November last year, French scientists have revealed.
Dr. Michel Schmitt, from Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Colmar, northeastern France, and his team of researchers examined thousands of chest X-rays from late 2019 and were able to identify two scans that were 'consistent' with the symptoms of Covid-19.

The scans, which were identified between November 16 and November 18, now cast a new light on when the coronavirus crisis first hit Europe as scientists continue their search for 'patient zero'.

The scans, which were obtained by NBC News, were among almost 2,500 X-rays that Mr Schmitt's team analysed and show the virus was in the country before its first reported case on January 24.
Pulmonologist and global health expert at the University of Washington Dr Vin Gupta, who analysed the X-Rays, told NBC News: 'This fits a pattern we're seeing with coronavirus — especially early coronavirus infection where you're seeing some abnormalities in some parts of the lungs but not abnormalities everywhere.'

Dr Schmitt's team were also able to identify 12 cases of coronavirus in December and 16 in January.

So are they thinking these symptoms are ONLY seen in COVID patients. It's interesting. I'd find it more convincing with lab work vs just x ray though.
 
  • #603
  • #604
  • #605
  • #606
These are the kinds of variables that projection-makers try to factor in, changing their projections as certain things occur.

  • Nations stopping travel or only opening up to certain others (Australia, New Zealand are good examples)
  • Virus mutating (if more benign forms live longer and are more successful, disease weakens and that's a common occurrence)
  • Health testing including virus testing,
  • Civil unrest/need for prisons or jail
  • Social initiatives to make jails, care homes, hospitals, schools, transportation, airports etc. safer
  • Public compliance with simple rules, including hand-washing
  • Materials to wash hands, have masks, etc.
  • Information and its circulation
  • Habits of living (elders with family, elders in care homes, etc., etc.)
As real (empirical) data come in, projections will naturally change. Some projections don't factor in many of these at all, which is why the projections vary.

Recent events have of course disrupted prior assumptions to some degree.
 
  • #607
Call me Negative Nellie, I’m a realist.

You guys realize there is zero hope for containing this virus in the States, right? That ship sailed a long time ago.

JMO.

ETA:

Furthermore, other countries must look at us like we are a bunch of buffoons.

I can’t blame them.

Moo.
 
  • #608
So are they thinking these symptoms are ONLY seen in COVID patients. It's interesting. I'd find it more convincing with lab work vs just x ray though.

The particular symptom (Ground Glass Opacities) occurs in other diseases, but for some reason, in CoVid, its distribution in the lungs is different to other diseases. IIRC, the lesions are more prevalent on the right dorsal side. These lesions are fairly uncommon in the first place, and many doctors will go ahead and admit the person into a CV ward if they fall into this pattern, it's a faster diagnostic method than waiting for blood tests.

So it's highly suggestive that it was CoVid, although obviously lab. work would be a better diagnostic.

Still, it's very odd that this particular symptom showed up on x-ray. Maybe they'll be able to find a way to do some post mortem serology, if they really want to know.
 
  • #609
Just got back from grocery shopping - had to go to three stores to get what I wanted.
Observations- Love when a store sprays your cart and wipes it down for you. 2 out of 3 I visited did that. The MOST expensive store I went to - did not. Did not like that at all.

Masks- Our state has mandated masks...but interesting observation...out of all the stores I visited...saw only 2 folks without masks. Both of them what I would call "seniors" but more on the younger side, perhaps late 60's...a man and a woman (not together btw) ...they are the demographic that needs to protect themselves the most.
Gave both a wide, wide berth in the stores and I couldn't help to make a hurumph noise when they walked by....and these folks could "afford" the handmade masks being sold all over or the boxed ones available too...

Anyways - I was happy and surprised to see the rest of the folks all masked, even teenagers, middle school kids out with mom (whole family in masks) , grown men and young adults....yay!

I had no problem finding tp and paper towels and bleach. Other things like Lysol spray and Clorox wipes are like rare diamonds....never see them, just big empty shelf spaces.
 
  • #610
  • #611
This is a really interesting article and confirms what we have all thought about it being in the UK before January.

Could Covid-19 have reached the UK earlier than thought?

"A day before the first confirmed fatality from coronavirus outside mainland China was reported on 2 February this year, the death of the influential guitarist and musician Andy Gill was announced. The 64-year-old, who fronted the post-punk band Gang of Four, died of pneumonia after two weeks in St Thomas’ hospital in London.

The trajectory of Gill’s illness, which took medics looking after him in January by surprise, is now familiar – sudden deterioration, low oxygen levels and organ failure. He had fallen sick after his band returned from a trip to China in late November. A short time later, his 26-year-old tour manager was taken to hospital in Leeds with a severe respiratory infection.

As images started rolling in of wards in China and then Italy overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, Gill’s widow Catherine Mayer – an author and co-founder of the Women’s Equality party – couldn’t shake the suspicion that her partner of nearly 30 years may have been an early victim of the virus."

Continued at link.

So it is very likely it could have been here as early as November.

There was another one in the news a few weeks ago, I think it was a choir somewhere in England, and when they did the backward tracing it turned out that someone in the choir, or someone's partner, had returned from China just before this respiratory illness and pneumonia started going around the people in the choir.

Was there ever an update on that to see if those people had antibodies?

These stories are so intriguing, and some very compelling (as in possibility it might well have been Covid) yet I often don't see updates afterwards?
 
  • #612
They are really just highlighting how quickly they are heading up the table. They will overtake Italy then UK, to be 2nd to US in about a week's time IMO. Greece only has 10 million population and a very hot early summer to help keep the cases down. Why do you think Greece is not being mentioned?

Greece's rates were low in March - which is not summer. And, there's not really good evidence that warmth is playing a big factor (look at SoCal - it's quite warm here, and we have 75,000 cases or so). It's said to be a minor factor.

Greece has had issues at its border for a while, so border checks are more thorough (and that's true for Republic of Georgia and Turkey as well). Being closer to Asia, their public health authorities took this seriously from the middle of February, well before most Western nations were doing much.

I think Greece makes the rest of Europe (except Germany) look unprepared, so that's one reason.

I also think the reason political situation (in which Greece opened its borders to EU member states but not UK or US) is a factor. It hasn't been talked about a lot, but 4 million UK citizens went on holiday to Greece last year, and still, Greeks are steadfast on keeping UK citizens out until UK brings CoVid under control (same with the US, although I don't know the number of US citizens who went to Greece last year, it's got to be a high number).

So, we have nations making decisions that are not in their economic interests, as traditionally understood, in order to protect public health. For the US, this means that not only are we not going to EU, but even when certain member states open, we can't go there either. It may be the same for UK.

I think another reason this is not mentioned more in MSM, is that it's discouraging. UK accounts for a very high percentage of travel dollars spent in Greece (and elsewhere), and citizens really look forward to their summer holidays. The US is expected to lift some travel restrictions soon. Will Greece's restrictions influence the US State Department? It remains to be seen. I think some media think "the less said the better."

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

(For current per capita rates...) I don't know if Greece is allow people from Spain to travel, need to check that out.
 
  • #613
Greece's rates were low in March - which is not summer. And, there's not really good evidence that warmth is playing a big factor (look at SoCal - it's quite warm here, and we have 75,000 cases or so). It's said to be a minor factor.

Greece has had issues at its border for a while, so border checks are more thorough (and that's true for Republic of Georgia and Turkey as well). Being closer to Asia, their public health authorities took this seriously from the middle of February, well before most Western nations were doing much.

I think Greece makes the rest of Europe (except Germany) look unprepared, so that's one reason.

I also think the reason political situation (in which Greece opened its borders to EU member states but not UK or US) is a factor. It hasn't been talked about a lot, but 4 million UK citizens went on holiday to Greece last year, and still, Greeks are steadfast on keeping UK citizens out until UK brings CoVid under control (same with the US, although I don't know the number of US citizens who went to Greece last year, it's got to be a high number).

So, we have nations making decisions that are not in their economic interests, as traditionally understood, in order to protect public health. For the US, this means that not only are we not going to EU, but even when certain member states open, we can't go there either. It may be the same for UK.

I think another reason this is not mentioned more in MSM, is that it's discouraging. UK accounts for a very high percentage of travel dollars spent in Greece (and elsewhere), and citizens really look forward to their summer holidays. The US is expected to lift some travel restrictions soon. Will Greece's restrictions influence the US State Department? It remains to be seen. I think some media think "the less said the better."

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

(For current per capita rates...) I don't know if Greece is allow people from Spain to travel, need to check that out.

Greece clarifies policy, to allow tourists from all nations

Greek officials said Saturday that the country will not limit arriving airline passengers next month to people coming from 29 countries but that travelers who departed from places that aren't on the initial list will be subject to mandatory testing for the coronavirus upon arrival and a quarantine period of one or two weeks.

The two-tiered policy, which revised information the Greek government issued Friday, will be applied during June 15-30, although officials left open the possibility of maintaining entry restrictions after the end of June.

High-ranking tourism ministry officials said the government needed to clarify the purpose of the 29-country list during the coronavirus pandemic, pointing to a statement posted on the Foreign Ministry's website. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the issue was politically sensitive.

According to the officials and the foreign ministry document, a limited number of international flights will continue only being allowed to land at Athens International Airport until June 15. Per European Union policy, every arriving passenger must be tested for the virus and stay overnight at a designated hotel.

Visitors who test negative are required to self-quarantine for 7 days, while the ones who test positive must spend 14 days under a supervised quarantine.

Greece is taking steps to welcome more visitors in time for the summer vacation season. Starting June 15, international flights also can land in Thessaloniki, the country's second-largest city. Those from the 29 designated countries, the majority of them in Europe, will be subject to random tests.

Passengers from all other countries will have to continue getting tested, staying overnight at specific hotels, and quarantining for either seven or 14 days.

The 29 countries announced Friday are: Albania, Australia, Austria, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Estonia, Japan, Israel, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lebanon, New Zealand, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, Norway, South Korea, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Finland.

[More at link]

Greece clarifies policy, to allow tourists from all nations | Kathimerini
 
  • #614
dbm
 
  • #615
So, it looks like the United States is paying more than double of any other country. Including China and Japan, who combined do not have the same fee as the United States.

Based on this table, it doesn't surprise me that a businessman would conclude that this is a bad deal for the United States.

Does that mean that pulling the US out of WHO instead of reducing the contribution will be a good business decision for the county going forward?
 
  • #616
Hi guys back at work ! very few masks and nooooooo distancing I am LIVID!! our guys go in and out of the Dallas area hospitals!
 
  • #617
from me: Who else thought this was a really bad idea when they heard about it? The Naval Academy held their graduation socially distanced and virtually.
Coronavirus: 16 West Point cadets test positive after returning to campus for Trump’s commencement address

At least 16 cadets have tested positive for the coronavirus after returning to the West Point campus for a commencement address by President Donald Trump which will be held on June 13, USA Today reported.

The students are being treated and are not showing signs of the virus.

The infected students are a fraction of the 850 students who have returned to campus since spring break in March.

Also, 71 members out of the 5,000 faculty and staff have tested positive for the virus since March.
 
  • #618
Greece clarifies policy, to allow tourists from all nations

Greek officials said Saturday that the country will not limit arriving airline passengers next month to people coming from 29 countries but that travelers who departed from places that aren't on the initial list will be subject to mandatory testing for the coronavirus upon arrival and a quarantine period of one or two weeks.

The two-tiered policy, which revised information the Greek government issued Friday, will be applied during June 15-30, although officials left open the possibility of maintaining entry restrictions after the end of June.

High-ranking tourism ministry officials said the government needed to clarify the purpose of the 29-country list during the coronavirus pandemic, pointing to a statement posted on the Foreign Ministry's website. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the issue was politically sensitive.

According to the officials and the foreign ministry document, a limited number of international flights will continue only being allowed to land at Athens International Airport until June 15. Per European Union policy, every arriving passenger must be tested for the virus and stay overnight at a designated hotel.

Visitors who test negative are required to self-quarantine for 7 days, while the ones who test positive must spend 14 days under a supervised quarantine.

Greece is taking steps to welcome more visitors in time for the summer vacation season. Starting June 15, international flights also can land in Thessaloniki, the country's second-largest city. Those from the 29 designated countries, the majority of them in Europe, will be subject to random tests.

Passengers from all other countries will have to continue getting tested, staying overnight at specific hotels, and quarantining for either seven or 14 days.

The 29 countries announced Friday are: Albania, Australia, Austria, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Estonia, Japan, Israel, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lebanon, New Zealand, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, Norway, South Korea, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Finland.

[More at link]

Greece clarifies policy, to allow tourists from all nations | Kathimerini

Greece's border is still closed to Turkey because of migration of people from Iran, through Turkey - with high level of coronavirus in Iran, as we all know. Turkey has done a good job of containing the spread. I lived in Istanbul for many years in the 1970s, and still have family there. Because of the instability under Erdogan, I haven't been able to travel there for a number of years. But do need to make a trip when possible, at least one more time. When it is safe - from both COVID-19 and Erdogan government.

My parents used to drive us from Istanbul to Greece for summer holidays - great beaches, of course, and not too far from a nice island we would visit by ferry from the Greek mainland.
 
  • #619
  • #620
Call me Negative Nellie, I’m a realist.

You guys realize there is zero hope for containing this virus in the States, right? That ship sailed a long time ago.

JMO.

ETA:

Furthermore, other countries must look at us like we are a bunch of buffoons.

I can’t blame them.

Moo.
A
Call me Negative Nellie, I’m a realist.

You guys realize there is zero hope for containing this virus in the States, right? That ship sailed a long time ago.

JMO.

ETA:

Furthermore, other countries must look at us like we are a bunch of buffoons.

I can’t blame them.

Moo.[/QUOTE
All right, then I'll be Debby Downer because I agree with your post 100%.
 
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