Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #60

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  • #341
Ah this was a jokey thing, a comment a comedian made here in the UK. The irony that we cant visit family, but can have people come to the house to do work. (It's our sense of humour...:confused:)

Ah, very good. Well, here in the United States, we can't have any graduations. But we can televise a huge funeral, with hundreds of people in attendance. No masks. Singing, hugging.

Meanwhile, no weddings with more than 10 people are allowed. Go figure it.
 
  • #342
Ah, very good. Well, here in the United States, we can't have any graduations. But we can televise a huge funeral, with hundreds of people in attendance. No masks. Singing, hugging.

Meanwhile, no weddings with more than 10 people are allowed. Go figure it.
I can't. The world has become too confusing for my poor brain to compute anything.

And Mr HKP has taken clippers to his head again and looks like Beaker from the Muppet Show :eek:
 
  • #343
Ah, very good. Well, here in the United States, we can't have any graduations. But we can televise a huge funeral, with hundreds of people in attendance. No masks. Singing, hugging.

Meanwhile, no weddings with more than 10 people are allowed. Go figure it.

Haaa - great point. Which is another sign that this is being overblown. The calculus must be that imposing protocols on the funeral will cause more death than Covid.
 
  • #344
Ah, very good. Well, here in the United States, we can't have any graduations. But we can televise a huge funeral, with hundreds of people in attendance. No masks. Singing, hugging.

Meanwhile, no weddings with more than 10 people are allowed. Go figure it.
Not in NJ. Outside graduation ceremonies are allowed, after July 6 or so. Different time, but still and now ok.
 
  • #345
I can't. The world has become too confusing for my poor brain to compute anything.

And Mr HKP has taken clippers to his head again and looks like Beaker from the Muppet Show :eek:
Beaker is my favorite muppet. Love love Beaker and Swedish Chef.
CNN did a TownHall combo with Sesame Street for children on racism. I wonder if SS ever addressed CoVid.
 
  • #346
I'm not saying it doesn't exist - one of my wife's friends from high school died of it. What I am saying is that hospitals are businesses and I get nervous when I see Banner Health quoted in many of the articles about our rising Covid rate. They are doing a balancing act and I believe they would advocate for certain public policy moves based on the bottom line as much as any concern for my safety.

And I hope I'm not being taken as a "mask shamer." My issue with this whole thing has been the intellectual dishonesty of the lock up - don't tell me it's two weeks or two months when what you've always meant was two years.

The only figures I personally look at are those provided by death certificates, public health departments and their aggregate presentation at the CDC. While some states are known to be falsifying or suppressing their numbers, the death certificates, signed by actual doctors, are pretty accurate.

There is no huge conspiracy of primary care doctors, infectious disease specialists, ER doctors, etc. These people are dying in order to treat the sick, they are not lying on death certificates or hospital charts.

Just ignore hospital statements (I never see them). Find a different way of getting information about CoVid, one that you can trust. BTW, the NYTimes has been completely reliable in importing real stats from sources that have been vetted thoroughly and are rooted in death certificates and hospital charts.

You seem to be missing the point of the "lock up" - and the fact that the decisions about that were made by politicians, not scientists and doctors, who - had they been allowed - would have given a very different plan and reasons for the plan.

I guess the public might have ignored them anyway. But the fact that doctors in NY literally had to allow people to die in the ER - in large numbers - due to the physical impossibility of treating them promptly - was our first priority.

We cannot stay "locked down" forever. But if older people didn't realize, early on (by mid-February or at least early March) that this was going to be a "rest of our lives" kind of thing, I don't know what to say. It was very clear that the US (and many other larger nations) were not going to be South Korea or New Zealand.

But we could have been Australia or even Vietnam - and if not those places, we could have at least been Italy or France.

Had we persisted in a real lockdown (we never have had a real lockdown in the US, not at all), and invested in known methods of contact tracing (we employ NONE of the known working methods nationwide) we would have a very different situation right now and I could at least think about maybe, someday, leaving my house.

As it stands, although I am not that old, I may never travel again, never go to a restaurant again, and my life expectancy is predicted to be 8 years shorter than it was predicted to be on Dec 31, 2019. For men, it's 9 years less (and it was already shorter for men my age than women). I was predicted to live to be around 80, now I get to look forward to dying in 7 years.

All of this is very hard to take in, especially as it would have been preventable if the agencies at the federal level knew anything at all about pandemics and had acted. We still aren't doing quarantining of incoming airline passengers, not the way it's done in the places where CoVid is under control.

Americans are now confined to their own borders, except for a handful who can afford the very expensive flights to the few places still permitting us to visit. Look for some nations to try and evict American businesses and/or military if we continue on the course we're on (endemic, devastating viral disease that no one else wants to have pop up again in their nation, as they - unlike us - pull it under control).
 
  • #347
My opinion is that most of us agree that Covid19 is a horrible virus that is still around. We all have our opinion as to how we want to deal with it. I personally do not like seeing people gathering in certain highly risky places but I can not stop them. People most certainly have a right to be angry when it seems to be there is no thought or care for others in those heads. I do not like selfishness, ignorance nor lack of respect for others well being. Many us will do what we need to keep ourselves and others safe. It would be nice if it wasn't so hard for some people to wear a mask at times either. Either way, I will do my part. I can safely enjoy many things and other things are on the maybe one day I will again. I had a a crazy experience a couple of nights ago. We had a very windy, rainy storm that my husband, self and young adult son got caught in driving home. My son wanted to run into a gas station before we got home. He ran out of the car and a split second I decided I wanted to grab something too. Barely got the store door open very windy and drenched in rain. Took a breath, grabbed what I wanted and came up behind my son in line. Behold, he had a mask on! I totally forgot so handed him my item and he paid for everything. I darted from the store since it was still windy and pouring and my glasses on my shirt neck actually flew 15 feet into the dark parking lot. I told my husband my glasses flew away lol! When my son was entering the car my husband told my son what happened but my son was talking through his mask which frusterated my husband so he ran out and found the glasses. I was so proud my son is considerate of others! I didn't even feel lousy that part of our backyard fence was damaged from the storm.

Here here! Huzzah!

Well said. Your son is a delight. My daughters also wear masks when out in public, although not if they're at the beach. I now have to limit seeing them to just seeing them out of doors (me with a mask). I'm devastated about it, but yes, they do have to live their lives. Both have small children, and the children have been such troopers about having absolutely no children to play with. For three months. The excitement of going to kindergarten and making friends for the first time in her life...now squashed for my granddaughter and she can't even see her cousins!

So they need to see each other - I do believe outdoor transmission is a tiny risk, but of course, the kids touch each other and hug and that's where the risk is. They might not show signs of illness themselves, but all the studies I've read say that children (if infected) pass it on at the same rate as adults.

I worry about my daughters and their husbands (males are more likely to have a serious course). But all of us are heartbroken that the childrens' lives, once full of happiness about ballet lessons and softball practice and school and little tiny pleasures - like a birthday party - have changed.

I want them to have their lives back. So for now, we meet by Facetime. And I am not happy.
 
  • #348
Very worrying. I hope our leaders are studying and staying informed like we are !

So Israel did a slower reopening but then did start opening schools eventually (they were in a much better place than most places in the US at that point).

Here's the latest:



And they actually PHASED / small group reintroduced schooling (so even more careful than many states that have already released their school reopening plans for fall):



The school with 130 testing positive began with a 7th grade student testing positive, so then they quaratined the entire 7th grade. Then a 9th grader tested positive and they shut the school down, but...



Obviously of note that it was students infected and testing positive before teachers, and the high number of positive cases among students, when teachers were the ones people thought would be bringing it and getting infected at higher rates (despite obviously there being more students than teacher)

After Reopening Schools, Israel Orders Them To Shut If COVID-19 Cases Are Discovered
 
  • #349
@KALI, 10ofRods & ilovewings:

Didn’t Otto say once:
‘Watch what they do, not what they say.’
Hope I quoted you correctly Otto..miss ya.

I mostly pay attention to science. In science people do things, then say things about them. Then hundreds or thousands of other people pick apart both what they say they did, and what they did. Just like we do for crime, here on Websleuths, although the data is all public.

Anyway, I'm not sure what this was in reference to. As an anthropologist, my entire professional life is about watching people. One reason I love this thread is to hear all the stories about what you all see people doing, from coast to coast and from abroad.

I cannot go out and watch what people are doing in my own community, as I used to, except through a car window. But from what I can tell, people are saying and doing very different things. In fact, now that CoVid cases leapt over the past 3 days here, including 1 ICU hospitalization with an active, healthy senior (age approximately 69-70), and the non-ICU hospitalization of 4 others in the same senior apartment building - which is a nice building) we know that people who insist they are "social distancing" and "wearing masks" every time they go out either are 1) not telling the truth or 2) are susceptible to infection from other shoppers when they go grocery shopping - there's absolutely no evidence that the grocery store workers aren't wearing masks (and now 2 of them are hospitalized as well).
 
  • #350
The only figures I personally look at are those provided by death certificates, public health departments and their aggregate presentation at the CDC. While some states are known to be falsifying or suppressing their numbers, the death certificates, signed by actual doctors, are pretty accurate.

There is no huge conspiracy of primary care doctors, infectious disease specialists, ER doctors, etc. These people are dying in order to treat the sick, they are not lying on death certificates or hospital charts.

Just ignore hospital statements (I never see them). Find a different way of getting information about CoVid, one that you can trust. BTW, the NYTimes has been completely reliable in importing real stats from sources that have been vetted thoroughly and are rooted in death certificates and hospital charts.

You seem to be missing the point of the "lock up" - and the fact that the decisions about that were made by politicians, not scientists and doctors, who - had they been allowed - would have given a very different plan and reasons for the plan.

I guess the public might have ignored them anyway. But the fact that doctors in NY literally had to allow people to die in the ER - in large numbers - due to the physical impossibility of treating them promptly - was our first priority.

We cannot stay "locked down" forever. But if older people didn't realize, early on (by mid-February or at least early March) that this was going to be a "rest of our lives" kind of thing, I don't know what to say. It was very clear that the US (and many other larger nations) were not going to be South Korea or New Zealand.

But we could have been Australia or even Vietnam - and if not those places, we could have at least been Italy or France.

Had we persisted in a real lockdown (we never have had a real lockdown in the US, not at all), and invested in known methods of contact tracing (we employ NONE of the known working methods nationwide) we would have a very different situation right now and I could at least think about maybe, someday, leaving my house.

As it stands, although I am not that old, I may never travel again, never go to a restaurant again, and my life expectancy is predicted to be 8 years shorter than it was predicted to be on Dec 31, 2019. For men, it's 9 years less (and it was already shorter for men my age than women). I was predicted to live to be around 80, now I get to look forward to dying in 7 years.

All of this is very hard to take in, especially as it would have been preventable if the agencies at the federal level knew anything at all about pandemics and had acted. We still aren't doing quarantining of incoming airline passengers, not the way it's done in the places where CoVid is under control.

Americans are now confined to their own borders, except for a handful who can afford the very expensive flights to the few places still permitting us to visit. Look for some nations to try and evict American businesses and/or military if we continue on the course we're on (endemic, devastating viral disease that no one else wants to have pop up again in their nation, as they - unlike us - pull it under control).

Excellent post. Much to unpack, but a couple of things come to mind:

1) What worked (maybe) in other places would never work here. I know people from the same bar that are on opposite ends of the spectrum - from those that may never leave the house again, to those that think the virus is fictitious. The U.S. has always been different, in the idea that people know what is best - that something dictated or imposed from above will always be worse. New Zealand completely defeated the virus, while we will have a significant portion of the population that won't even take a vaccine. My idea, when all of this started was to reintroduce "Pest Houses" - places where all they did was handle Covid patients. Traditional hospitals would treat only those cases contracted by those that committed to complete isolation from the rest of society. If healthcare workers did not want to deal with this, then don't work at a Covid House.

2) My wife is a life time smoker, with diabetes in her 60's. She decided early on that if this was going to get her, then so be it, because staying locked inside was a living death. We have not prepared, financially, for retirement, and I have forgone any type of preventative medical screenings. These are the last good years we have so, frankly, we were looking at worse outcomes than dying of the flu. Every time we go out and socialize and then read about someone terrified to leave the house, we rejoice in our good fortune.
 
  • #351
They were told by the UK government but it made no difference. They are still on the streets today, yet I cannot see my family.

It all seems so fair, doesn't it? Not. Jmo
 
  • #352
So Israel did a slower reopening but then did start opening schools eventually (they were in a much better place than most places in the US at that point).

Here's the latest:



And they actually PHASED / small group reintroduced schooling (so even more careful than many states that have already released their school reopening plans for fall):



The school with 130 testing positive began with a 7th grade student testing positive, so then they quaratined the entire 7th grade. Then a 9th grader tested positive and they shut the school down, but...



Obviously of note that it was students infected and testing positive before teachers, and the high number of positive cases among students, when teachers were the ones people thought would be bringing it and getting infected at higher rates (despite obviously there being more students than teacher)

After Reopening Schools, Israel Orders Them To Shut If COVID-19 Cases Are Discovered

Well, to me, that answers the question YES schools can transmit. Israel mandated masks and testing and had a very low rate of infection before they sent the kids back.

Two weeks later, 133 students and some staff infected at just one school. With mask use in place. (Surgical masks). Face shields might have helped - but seriously, what parent in their right mind wants to send their child into that (with our much worse policies and stats here in the US) in August??

I think UK is rethinking its decision about schools and I think they're requiring masks - but I hope at least someone in the education administration sector of both governments pays attention to this story from Israel.
 
  • #353
@10ofRods I’m curious what life expectancy calculator you used that factored in the pandemic and showed you such a dramatic reduction since Dec 2019. I looked and didn’t find one. The ones I used did factor in health conditions, exercise, smoking, alcohol use, etc. Even being an overweight slug I scored high. I’m in a high risk group for Covid-19 (age 74) and don’t mind staying home for the long haul. I’m OK with dying sooner...but not that way! :eek: Not that we normally get to choose.
 
  • #354
Twin Cities suburban here. Food shortages. Is this for real?

I have noticed in the past several weeks that grocery stores are running really low on supplies. At first, I thought it was just crazy buying as in TP and paper towels, but today I realized shortages affect every aisle. Seems every time I go to the store there are empty shelves. How bad is this going to hit the US? This could be more frightening than the economy and COVID-19.
Coronavirus outbreaks at 60 U.S. plants raise specter of more food shortages
 
  • #355
If it was just me to worry about - I might loosen up a bit and not be as concerned.

Maybe a bit of envy to see others out living their life as if CV doesn’t exist. Or perhaps they don’t care?
Maybe they live alone, no parents to shield, no multigenerational in one home, no children, fearless.
I am not high risk but the ones I am currently caring for certainly are.
 
  • #356
Ah, very good. Well, here in the United States, we can't have any graduations. But we can televise a huge funeral, with hundreds of people in attendance. No masks. Singing, hugging.

Meanwhile, no weddings with more than 10 people are allowed. Go figure it.

I can't let this go unchallenged. MANY states have no such rules as the ones you mention. In fact, there's no such law in California, there's some advice - and guess what? My county did not choose to limit or enforce limits on 10 on funerals (it's quite a bit larger - larger than any funeral of recent times has been, so essentially - no limits).

The United States has no nation-wide policies on funeral attendance (or anything else, including mask wearing) and has given advisory information to States, some of whom have enacted laws, some have not, and many have allowed devolved authority to County officials.

Where I live, if someone wanted to have a giant funeral, they could easily get an exception from one person (our Public Health Officer), who would tell them they had to distribute masks and warn everyone.

If you live someplace that's more despotic, I am very sorry that you do, because I really like you. But we have freedom to watch what other places are doing - and nothing about CoVId, that I know of, is policy or law at the federal level. There's advice. Dr Fauci and the CDC give advice.

Some places follow it - and the ones who do, have much better health results. So I am not in favor of large public gatherings and am aghast that so many older people risk it. But the facts seem to say that unless things are made illegal, people in America are going to do whatever they want, regardless of local advice - and local policies have to be enforced (we have Sheriffs in California openly stating they will not enforce the policies of their own Board of Supervisors - or the Governor). The Governor does has "teeth" in these matters - but not his own police force.
 
  • #357
Twin Cities suburban here. Food shortages. Is this for real?

I have noticed in the past several weeks that grocery stores are running really low on supplies. At first, I thought it was just crazy buying as in TP and paper towels, but today I realized shortages affect every aisle. Seems every time I go to the store there are empty shelves. How bad is this going to hit the US? This could be more frightening than the economy and COVID-19.
Coronavirus outbreaks at 60 U.S. plants raise specter of more food shortages
The paper products aisle in two stores that are closest to us have had no paper products - a bare aisle - since mid March.
No paper plates, napkins, paper towels, toilet paper, etc.
I made one run to Costco and got paper towels and toilet paper. Costco was a nightmare. And Walmart has some products from what I’ve been told but they stopped curbside when the protests started and board up at 4pm. And I hated the Walmart near me before CV because of the unsanitary issues.
 
  • #358
Twin Cities suburban here. Food shortages. Is this for real?

I have noticed in the past several weeks that grocery stores are running really low on supplies. At first, I thought it was just crazy buying as in TP and paper towels, but today I realized shortages affect every aisle. Seems every time I go to the store there are empty shelves. How bad is this going to hit the US? This could be more frightening than the economy and COVID-19.
Coronavirus outbreaks at 60 U.S. plants raise specter of more food shortages

Southern Oregon here. I haven’t shopped for groceries in person since March 13, and my husband stopped in early May, but our Instacart orders are coming with only a few substitutions or deletions, so far. Maybe we order off-beat stuff. But I do expect shortages based on articles like the one you linked.
 
  • #359
@10ofRods I’m curious what life expectancy calculator you used that factored in the pandemic and showed you such a dramatic reduction since Dec 2019. I looked and didn’t find one. The ones I used did factor in health conditions, exercise, smoking, alcohol use, etc. Even being an overweight slug I scored high. I’m in a high risk group for Covid-19 (age 74) and don’t mind staying home for the long haul. I’m OK with dying sooner...but not that way! :eek: Not that we normally get to choose.

It's not a calculator. It's a pre-print of life expectancy for use in medicine - and actuarial studies. I've posted it here (it was about 3 weeks ago, though so I'll go find it again and edit this post.

It is probably going to affect life insurance rates as these studies come out - regardless of whether people believe or accept the news. It's based on the fact that most think CV will be endemic in our hemisphere for at least a decade. That's based on other viruses with similar contagion profiles. Very old people are probably not going to be able to develop full antibodies even with a vaccine. We're already seeing a decrease in people over 100, and soon it will be a decrease in the percentage of us who live to be 95. That affects overall LE quite a bit and of course, lots of 80 and 90 year olds will also continue to die (we had 2 in my city of 100,000 last night). So it will be rare to live to be 95, just as it is rare to live to be 105 today.

US life expectancy in the year 1900 was 65 for women, 60 for men.

ETA: Article is behind a pay wall (and the numbers are a bit worse than what I quoted): here's the relevant part:

//Years of life lost

For men the average YLL on adjusting for number and type of LTC as well as age was 13.1 (12.2–14.1). For women this value was 10.5 (9.7–11.3). The results were similar under the different assumptions for the age-multimorbidity association and in both sensitivity analyses, whether assuming strongly correlated or independent LTCs (Table 1). For comparison, the YLL based on age alone using the WHO tables was 14.0 and 11.8 for men and women, respectively.//

Here's the citation:

COVID-19 – exploring the... | Wellcome Open Research

There are other publications saying similar things (in fact, I know I saw a more optimistic study, which is what I quoted, but it was a pre-print and this one is I believe now published).

I'll find the others when I can. At any rate, I believe people should take this into consideration when planning for retirement and how they're going to live in retirement. Healthy life expectancy was already declining in the US, after a century of rising. But this is a big hit, this virus.
 
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  • #360
Yes. Too bad what politicians do is often schizophrenic.

@KALI, 10ofRods & ilovewings:

Didn’t Otto say once:
‘Watch what they do, not what they say.’
Hope I quoted you correctly Otto..miss ya.
 
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