Okay, so onto some numbers. It's been a while since anyone posted about numbers and CoVid on these threads. <modsnip>
I'm going to do the United States numbers first.
We have tested, as of July 4 end of day, about 37 million people, a bit more than 1% of the population as a gross figure, but many people have been tested more than once. The US does not collect public data on how many individuals have been tested. That number is probably closer to 30M.
We have no nationwide system of contact tracing and only a few states are managing to do even a fraction of what is needed on that front.
Of the 30M individuals tested, 2.9 million tested positive. So we'll say 10%. If each of the tests had been done on individuals, it would be about 9.5% positivity.
As most of you know, this number (positivity) has fluctuated a great deal from place to place and over time. Early on, during the test kit shortage, tests were reserved for those about to enter the hospital. Now, many more people are getting tested.
10% positivity is not good. Various estimates say that the real rate of CoVid in the larger population must therefore be at least 5% - or perhaps 10% too, or perhaps higher (asymptomatic). We don't know. At first we were told that 50% of the CV+ people were asymptomatic, but now we know some were merely presymptomatic - or that they had unusual or mild symptoms (symptoms have been added since the first days).
If the rate is 10% population-wide, then that means 1 in 10 people you meet have CoVid. Or have had it. If you live someplace like Florida where the positivity rate is 17-20%, then it's 1 in 5 people around you...are or have been positive for CoVId. Florida's situation is a bit more dramatic, since we know that early on, their positivity rate was much lower than 20% and it's only been in the past week that it's gotten to 17-20% - so that means those are
active cases, many of whom were sent home to "self-quarantine" (another topic where considered decision-making needs to be made).
The CMF (case mortality rate) for CoVid worldwide is 5%. So, if you get CoVid, you stand a 95% chance of surviving - but we all know that's age-graded. Under 25's are not dying in numbers that will even register on this global scale. For people aged 25-44, the mortality rate is likely around .25-.5% (higher with comorbidities, lower with others).
The median age of a symptomatic CoVid patient in the United States is 48. In Italy, it was 63.
The median age at death from CoVid in the US is not known, but estimated to be around 70. Worldwide, it's 79. I was able to calculate some data from California, where the 50%ile for deaths is about 72-73. In general, life expectancy in California is a bit higher than it is for some other states, but the differences should be small.
So..what about those new case rates of over 50,000 per day??
What does this mean? How scary is that? Well, given that many of those people will, if they ever get x-rayed, show some lung issues, it's a serious problem. But what about hospitalization and death?
Currently, only about 1% of the people testing positive are hospitalized. Fewer are being put on ventilators, ICU beds tend to go to people with multiple co-morbidities and very low oxygen saturation on admission (or with electrical issues with their hearts or with kidney failure). All of these serious consequences can happen very suddenly with CoVid. This rate is down from earlier, for many reasons.
IMHE projections show that with the larger number of younger people in hospitals, mortality rates will not be 5% of all cases, but some number much lower. They project about 600-650 deaths per day for at least the next month (so about 1.5% of the total new daily cases). Older people are still getting CoVid, obviously, and people in their 70's and 80's, not in care homes, are our most vulnerable population.
Since most of the new cases are in the group under 65, we can expect mortality rates to go down overall. But with the higher number of cases...total deaths will continue to rise. If 250,000 Americans are newly diagnosed with CoVid in the past 5 days, we can expect 600-700 of them to die daily in the next days or weeks. Not all will be hospitalized prior to death, obviously (especially since so many are young and relatively mild in symptoms - the organ failure issue that seems to strike people suddenly still affects the young).
If the mortality rates by the end of this week (July 11) are higher than 650, and patient age in general is lower, then we have to assume that the sheer number of comorbidities in the young American population (particularly obesity) are affecting survival rates.
650 people dead, per day, is 4550 people dead per week. 19500 per month. IMHE projects an additional 45,000 deaths by end of September. They are optimistic that we'll come down from the extraordinary current rate of 45-50,000 new cases per day (and that many of those will be in younger people who do not require hospitalization).
IMHE optimistically thinks that we'll cut back down on social contact and mobility and has not factored in the unknown variable of school reopenings. Obviously, August is projected to be a month with more deaths than June or July. July will likely exceed the optimistic projections by at least a little bit as hot spots occur in older populations (and both Florida and Arizona have so many elderly).
All of you can wager, as you wish, on whether all those relatively asymptomatic, newly-diagnosed CoVid+ people will actually stay at home. And how long do people really need to stay at home? Interesting question with new research, I need to do more homework.
IMHE, sadly, projects that if we do not tighten our restrictions on public life, that we'll be at 86,000 cases per day in September - and their mortality predictions for October and beyond have not yet been calculated, because no one knows which direction we're going in terms of opening/closing.
That will be 8,600 hospitalizations per day in September, which will overload hospitals in many states. If you want to see some of this in graphic form, try this:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
