Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #68

[margarita25]

I think they need to be telling the US population exactly how long any kind of herd immunity would take.

I get the feeling that some think it can happen quickly, when I tend to think it may take years. (layman's opinion from looking at the numbers required)

And, now, studies tend to show that it can't happen effectively at all.

Yeah not counting on this HERD immunity as I’ve said before, MOO.

(Get it? “Herd”...“Moo”..)

 

[10ofRods]

Dr. Atlas: Coronavirus surges linked mostly to protests -- and proximity to US-Mexico border

The recent surges in U.S. coronavirus cases can be traced to two key factors -- crowds of protesters and proximity to the U.S.-Mexico border, Dr. Scott Atlas, a senior fellow at The Hoover Institution, said Saturday night.


Most of the cases in the Southwest -- California, Arizona and Texas -- are occuring in counties closest to the U.S.-Mexico border, Atlas told anchor Jon Scott during an appearance on on "Fox Report Weekend."

"When you look in the southern counties of California, Arizona and the bordering counties of Texas -- with the Mexico border -- these are where most of these cases are really exploding," Atlas said. "And then you look at the Mexico map and in Mexico, that's where their cases are. Their cases are in the northern border zone states. And it turns out the timeline here correlates much more to the Mexico timeline of increasing cases than anything else."

More convincing arguments at link.

I mentioned the Mexico and protest connections about a week ago and this guy is basically saying the same thing. It makes sense. NY has placed a quarantine on travellers from other high case states but there is nothing stopping travellers returning from Mexico AFAIK.

Sadly, Dr Atlas is not an expert in epidemiology, while claiming to have compiled data from, apparently, hundreds of sources. In fact, he works at the conservative think tank housed at Stanford. His area of expertise is MRI's, their purposes, their affordability and whether socialism or capitalism is better for disseminating high tech to various places. (Guess which side his research favors?)

Imperial County (but not San Diego) fits his cherry picking, but we know why - for the same reason my non-border county has an issue: packing houses and agricultural workers. Imperial County has also seen an influx of ex-pats from Mexico. But El Paso is not peaking the way his model projects (and the AZ towns are not near the border - they're well away from it).

Mexico has placed a quarantine on us, as well, although I think they have eased it.

Exploding? Florida. How would he explain that? Well, he can't. Also Georgia, North Carolina, Illinois, Los Angeles County, Riverside County (what's his explanation for LA and Riverside, I wonder?)

I think perhaps he was working with too little data too soon. But, then, the fact that he's outside his expertise (the Hoover Institute's mission is policy, international relations and political science. It also houses a large library. But it has no medical library.

From his bio:

Dr. Atlas’s most recent books include "Restoring Quality Health Care: A Six Point Plan for Comprehensive Reform at Lower Cost" (Hoover Institution Press, 2020, 2nd ed.) and "In Excellent Health: Setting the Record Straight on America’s Health Care System". Dr. Atlas has been interviewed by or has published his work in a variety of media, including BBC Radio, the PBS NewsHour, the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes Magazine, CNN, USA Today, Fox News, London’s Financial Times, Brazil’s Correio Braziliense, Italy’s Corriere della Sera, Argentina’s Diario La Nacion, and India's The Hindu.

Most of those are interviews, and otherwise, they are newspapers. Not academic. While the Hoover Institute is housed at Stanford, it is not affiliated academically with Stanford or its medical school. It's its own thing and is funded by...well, that's easy to google. Not saying it's terrible, but yes, it's a partner in politics with certain publications and causes, it is a "think tank" and not an academic institution.

 

[KALI]

There have been 0 changes to this ruling to date.

Also the FOX NEWS article that was posted is from April...

 

[CSIDreamer]

I wonder if 'rush' approval can really = 'safe' and effective.

Good question. Jmo

 

[tmar]

Melbourne, Australia in lock down.
Leaders throughout our Country work together.

Our Premier states: WHATEVER WE WANT, WE GET.
There has been a comprehensive response: best skills for best purposes.
These Daily complex discussions are so needed by the public, providing us 'hope' for further success.
Numbers are rising still.

 

[margarita25]

Not that any of us need further illustration of JUST HOW BAD things are but...

@HongKongPhooey had mentioned “itchy eyes”...

<modsnip>

 

[Tadpole12]

'Public enemy number one': WHO sounds alarm as global coronavirus cases surpass 13 million | National Post

13 million
July 13 2020

 

[margarita25]

'Public enemy number one': WHO sounds alarm as global coronavirus cases surpass 13 million | National Post

13 million
July 13 2020

Yeah I’ve had a VERY hard time getting through the latest conferences.

To hear that Doc T was holding back tears...I haven’t gotten to that part yet, on purpose. I’m still back on July 9.

 

[10ofRods]

I think they need to be telling the US population exactly how long any kind of herd immunity would take.

I get the feeling that some think it can happen quickly, when I tend to think it may take years. (layman's opinion from looking at the numbers required)

And, now, studies tend to show that it can't happen effectively at all.

But they can't do that if it's impossible. If it can never happen, even in theory, no one should be predicting it. It may be a mathematical impossibility given these factors: It's not yet known how long immunity lasts (titers are disappearing; some with mild cases have no titers after a month or two); new people (children) coming into the herd all the time (no evidence that children get immunity from their mostly mild cases).

The research that needs to be done on longterm immunity involves T cells which are produced in bone marrow and aren't easily tested through serology. There was a promising new technology mentioned in a pre-print yesterday, but no one knows how long it will take for meaningful research on this topic to be published.

If we all were forced to socialize and got the virus as fast as possible, certainly the odds of getting it would go down. But if people can get it over and over, like the common cold, then that's a big factor. The severity of the illness may be reduced by having a mild case - or it may not.

We just don't know. After 4 months, only 1% of us have been diagnosed with a case...so unless we speed it up, it will be several years. If epidemiologists are right and the true number is 3-5%, then it could be as few as 4 years.

But we really need to know that people who have had Covid but no longer have blood-based antibodies...are still immune (I think they will be). If true, then we wait 3-5 years. Or longer, if people do anything to avoid getting it (and we will, won't we??)

 

[Bravo]

Not that any of us need further illustration of JUST HOW BAD things are but...

@HongKongPhooey had mentioned “itchy eyes”...

<modsnip>

Allergy eyes maybe?

 

[Bravo]

Night all. Be safe. Be kind.

 

[tresir2012]

WHO sounds alarm as coronavirus cases rise by one million in five days

After the first cases were reported in China around the new year, it took three months to reach one million cases. But it has taken just five days to climb to 13 million cases from 12 million.

Which countries have contributed to that uptick in those 5 days?

Latin America and India are mentioned, plus the US, with also Spain and the UK getting a mention, but I would imagine most of it was Brazil and Mexico.

 

[Sundog]

Respectfully, Kali, I notice that Birx is now representing the US govt as the medical officer of choice. Instead of them having the MOST respected expert, Dr Fauci, representing them.
This is making the rest of the world (at least here in Oz) wonder why would that be? We are all having our very top gun medical experts speaking with us, on behalf of our govt.

Dr. Birx is one of our very top gun medical experts speaking with us on behalf of our government. She has served in this role of representing the government on AIDS and now COVID-19 for both the Obama and Trump administrations. She has the respect of the medical community in the U.S. It seems that the media prefer Fauci, they like certain figures more than others. JMO.

 

[KALI]

I'm not discounting this pandemic.
However, I think that it is important to look at numbers.
As of May 2020 the word has 7.8 billion people living on earth.
Google search, "World's current population?".
Answer: wikipedia

13 million people, divided by 7.8 billion, equals an infection rate of 0.00166666666
* of course many are not yet diagnosed.
So, lets say in actuality, being generous with numbers, that 2% actually are infected, that would mean 156 million instead of 13 million people. That still means, even with that huge number, that 98% of the world wouldn't have it.
Just saying...

'Public enemy number one': WHO sounds alarm as global coronavirus cases surpass 13 million | National Post

13 million
July 13 2020

 

[JerseyGirl]

2,000 more contracted nurses coming to Florida to help with coronavirus spike, DeSantis says | WFLA

Gov. Ron DeSantis announced an additional 2,000 contracted nurses will be spread throughout the state to help combat the virus.

The governor had previously announced that 100 contract nurses would already be coming to the Tampa Bay area.

 

[Tippy Lynn]

<modsnip: quoted post was removed>

I had the serology test done. Mine came back negative.

 

[Tadpole12]

Yeah I’ve had a VERY hard time getting through the latest conferences.

To hear that Doc T was holding back tears...I haven’t gotten to that part yet, on purpose. I’m still back on July 9.

Ah ya, Dr Tedros and Dr Ryan are committed and passionate.
Situation is frustrating enough to bring anyone to tears.

 

[margarita25]

I had the serology test done. Mine came back negative.

IANAD, but IMO, some people’s serology tests may come back negative when they have in fact previously had Covid-19, JMO MOO.

This is my personal opinion based on ZERO FACT, whatsoever.

 

[KALI]

Here's another, for California that now has had most businesses shut down again today.
California has a population of over 39.5 million people.
As of today, according to The Los Angeles times, we have 333,356 people positive for COVID-19.
39.5 million people, divided by 333,356. equals a positive infection rate of 0.0084393924.
Assuming, the undiagnosed is at 2%, that would equate to 790,000.
Meaning that 98% of California's citizens still wouldn't have COVID-19.
Now, ask, how many people are going to lose their small businesses which make up 85% of revenue for this country?
I'm going to guess, minimally, 45% due to this latest shutdown announced today (with no end date given).
I am happy to engage in any personal discussions.

 

[10ofRods]

I'm not discounting this pandemic.
However, I think that it is important to look at numbers.
As of May 2020 the word has 7.8 billion people living on earth.
Google search, "World's current population?".
Answer: wikipedia

13 million people, divided by 7.8 billion, equals an infection rate of 0.00166666666
* of course many are not yet diagnosed.
So, lets say in actuality, being generous with numbers, that 2% actually are infected, that would mean 156 million instead of 13 million people. That still means, even with that huge number, that 98% of the world wouldn't have it.
Just saying...

For me, it's more about what happens if it happens to you. Or it if happens to me.

We have only about 15-16,000 murders in the US each year (that we know of) and yet, many of us are here on WS because we think that's too many.

I will probably never get many diseases - for example, I'm out of the running for Diabetes Type 1 - but I still care, even though it's a very small percentage of the world's population.

Here, though, we have a disease that's transmitted person-to-person and is extremely contagious. Even asymptomatic people may have longterm consequences. Almost everyone with a moderate to severe case will have longterm consequences. 3% will die.

It accounts for more planetary deaths than homicide or suicide.

Most people in the world do not get murdered - or die by any one disease. But, just as some of us try to avoid getting murdered or we accept that we have to get help for depression, some of us are going to do what we can to avoid CoVid - for ourselves, our families, friends, students, neighbors and online communities.

For me, I simply do not consciously take a risk where I have a 3 % chance of dying (that's just going by sex and age - that's true for all 60-somethings; if you're a 70-something, it may be higher and at 80 it goes up to 5% or more - and so on).

I prefer to avoid being a crime victim, and I prefer to avoid having CoVid. We have entire systems in place (very expensive ones) to try and corral and stop those 15-16,000 people a year from being murdered.

And now, 138,000 are dead in the US from CoVid - in one-third of a year. I see it the same way as I see a spree killer on the loose.