Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[KALI]

Just buy a boat with a comfy bed ;-)

Doesn't it make you want to go out and buy your own personal island?

 

[musicaljoke]

Just buy a boat with a comfy bed ;-)

A nice cruise ship. There prob'ly are a bunch available real cheap.

 

[tresir2012]

As south begins ‘to turn tide’ of outbreak, COVID-19 death rate should drop, CDC says
more at link
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that he believes the death rate of the coronavirus in the United States should start to drop next week.

In an interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association, Robert Redfield said mitigation steps such as face coverings, social distancing and prohibiting large gatherings should result in positive signs as the country continues to battle the virus.

That's really good news if he is right and I believe we are seeing this with the drop in the R numbers for the southern states.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: We hope this pandemic will be over in two years, WHO chief says

The head of the World Health Organisation says he hopes the coronavirus pandemic will be over in two years.

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 took two years to end, he said.

"Our situation now with more technology, of course with more connectiveness, the virus has a better chance of spreading, it can move fast," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

"At the same time we have the technology and knowledge to stop it."

 

[tmar]

Vic cases drop, authorities still cautious

Vic cases drop, authorities still cautious

Andi Yu

1 hour ago
Victorians eager to live a freer existence cannot depend on lockdowns loosening in three weeks' time, authorities say.

A six-week period of tough restrictions in Melbourne and slightly less onerous rules in the regions are due for review on September 13.

New infections on Friday dipped below 200 for the first time in five and half weeks - showing restrictions are working.

Premier Daniel Andrews and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton say the latest infection numbers are encouraging, but maintain a cautious tone, and offered no clarity on the pathway out of lockdowns.

 

[tmar]

World Health Organisation 'hopes coronavirus pandemic will be over in less than 2 years'

World Health Organisation 'hopes coronavirus pandemic will be over in less than 2 years'

Joseph Wilkes

3 hrs ago
The World Health Organisation hopes the coronavirus crisis can be over in less than two years, its chief said today.

The Spanish Flu pandemic that hit in 1918 "took two years to stop", WHO director general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
The Ethiopian biologist and WHO official told a briefing in Geneva: "And in our situation now with more technology, and of course with more connectiveness, the virus has a better chance of spreading, it can move fast because we are more connected now.


While some countries have managed to reduce transmission of COVID-19, Dr Tedros today warned that "progress does not mean victory".

He referenced several countries which had experienced new outbreaks, saying: "These countries are a cautionary tale for those that are now seeing a downward trend in cases.”

Much more research is needed on the impact of mutations in the coronavirus, WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said today.

 

[tresir2012]

" Worst performance for Covid19"

This was stated by Joe Biden but this article analyses this and finds the context does not support that.

Here's the link and I will copy and paste the relevant Coronavirus comments.

DNC fact check: Biden speech needs context on pandemic, tax cuts and Social Security - Roll Call

"In critiquing Trump on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, Biden pointed to the U.S.’s high COVID-19 caseload and death toll.

“Just judge this president on the facts,” he said. “Five million Americans infected by COVID-19. More than 170,000 Americans have died. By far the worst performance of any nation on Earth.”

Biden is right that in both coronavirus cases and deaths, the U.S. has the most of any other country. As of Aug. 21, America’s totals stand at 5.6 million cases and more than 174,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 dashboard. The next-worst nation is Brazil, with 3.5 million cases and around 112,000 deaths.

But by other metrics, the U.S. does not have the worst record. When population is factored in, seven other countries, per Oxford University’s Our World in Data for Aug. 20, have more cumulative COVID-19 cases. This includes Qatar, with more than 40,000 cases per million people, and Bahrain, San Marino, Chile, Panama, Kuwait and Peru. The U.S. places eighth, with 16,706 cases per million.

On deaths per capita, the U.S. also does not fare the worst. Our World in Data shows America with the 10th-highest death rate, better than San Marino, Belgium, Peru, Andorra, Spain, the U.K., Italy, Sweden and Chile. In a similar dataset from Johns Hopkins, the U.S. does better than an additional country, Brazil.

Although harder to interpret and heavily influenced by the number of coronavirus tests performed, the U.S. also does substantially better on its observed case-fatality rate, or the proportion of people identified with the virus who have died. In the U.S., 3.1% of those known to be infected with the virus have died — a lower rate than 55 other countries in the Johns Hopkins analysis.

While the COVID-19 statistics for the U.S. are certainly grim — and America is by no means leading the world with its superior COVID-19 “performance” — by a variety of metrics, it is not the worst."

 

[Tillicum]

After a person has recovered from Covid are they still supposed to wear a mask? If it were me, I would but I'm not sure about the guidelines in this situation.

 

[musicaljoke]

After a person has recovered from Covid are they still supposed to wear a mask? If it were me, I would but I'm not sure about the guidelines in this situation.

Yes. There are no exceptions for people who have recovered. There have also been many cases where a person tests positive again.

From the CDC:
If you test positive or negative for COVID-19 on a viral or an antibody test, you still should take preventive measures to protect yourself and others.

We do not know yet if people who recover from COVID-19 can get infected again. Scientists are working to understand this.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[tresir2012]

World Health Organisation 'hopes coronavirus pandemic will be over in less than 2 years'

World Health Organisation 'hopes coronavirus pandemic will be over in less than 2 years'

Joseph Wilkes

3 hrs ago
The World Health Organisation hopes the coronavirus crisis can be over in less than two years, its chief said today.

The Spanish Flu pandemic that hit in 1918 "took two years to stop", WHO director general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
The Ethiopian biologist and WHO official told a briefing in Geneva: "And in our situation now with more technology, and of course with more connectiveness, the virus has a better chance of spreading, it can move fast because we are more connected now.


While some countries have managed to reduce transmission of COVID-19, Dr Tedros today warned that "progress does not mean victory".

He referenced several countries which had experienced new outbreaks, saying: "These countries are a cautionary tale for those that are now seeing a downward trend in cases.”

Much more research is needed on the impact of mutations in the coronavirus, WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said today.

I think WHO are going to be wrong about this like they were about masks. I think a vaccine will have this defeated by the anniversary of when WHO declared it was a pandemic. With over 140 vaccines and at least 3 very close to roll out, there was nothing like that in 1918. We also have much more financing for vaccines and trials plus worldwide cooperation between countries.

 

[tresir2012]

Yes. There are no exceptions for people who have recovered. There have also been many cases where a person tests positive again.

From the CDC:
If you test positive or negative for COVID-19 on a viral or an antibody test, you still should take preventive measures to protect yourself and others.

We do not know yet if people who recover from COVID-19 can get infected again. Scientists are working to understand this.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Do we know for sure that some people have had it twice and been hospitalised twice for certain? I can accept they may test positive again but not that they have actually been seriously ill again. Maybe I have just missed those instances.

ETA here's a link discussing it.

Coronavirus immunity: Can you catch it twice?

 

[mickey2942]

I guess it would, if everyone carried a smartphone.

That's not the case where I live so I tend to forget that it might be more universal in other places.

You bring up a very good point. People "assume" that "everyone" has a Smartphone, and access to the internet. There are places in Montana, where folks still have to use old "dial up" for internet service on their computer. And many areas with zero cell coverage. Why bother with a Smartphone, if you don't have access to cell service? Or spend the money for internet, if you don't need it?

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>

It seems obvious to me that simply being in a store with others isn't considered a high risk by the contact tracers, because we don't see notices being put out saying "if you were in Safeway between 2 and 4 pm on Tuesday you may have been exposed".

It's the people you have longer contacts with that are considered the higher risk. (obviously excepting someone who is actively coughing or sneezing in public).

IMO

We fairly frequently get announcements that say if you have been "in Crossroads pub/another specific location between 6th and 12th August please get tested" or "at so-and-so gym between 4 & 6pm on Wednesday 9th July please get tested".

Transmission of the virus between strangers is considered important in Australia. And it has been proved that people have caught the virus from simply being in the same location as an infected person (yes, we social distance).
Hence our lockdowns and stay at home orders, and the deep cleaning of schools and other locations.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...ed-to-melbourne-outbreak-20200714-p55c12.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...h-the-war-zone-detective-20200715-p55ce8.html

 

[tresir2012]

This is the wiki percentages by country for smartphone penetration. Surprising.

List of countries by smartphone penetration - Wikipedia

Top five countries in the list from 2019

Rank Country/Region Total population Smartphone penetration Smartphone users
1

United Kingdom 67.0m 82.9% 55.5m
2

Germany 82.4m 79.9% 65.9m
3

United States 329.1m 79.1% 260.2m
4

France 65.5m 77.5% 50.7m
5

Spain 46.4m 74.3% 34.5m

(My Smartphone works via my internet broadband land line as there is no cell phone signal where I live.)

 

[SouthAussie]

You bring up a very good point. People "assume" that "everyone" has a Smartphone, and access to the internet. There are places in Montana, where folks still have to use old "dial up" for internet service on their computer. And many areas with zero cell coverage. Why bother with a Smartphone, if you don't have access to cell service? Or spend the money for internet, if you don't need it?

There are also compatibility issues with the app, as we have discovered.

For example, the contact tracing app that over 6 million people here have downloaded does not always work on an iPhone when the phone is locked. There are also compatibility issues between iPhones and some Android phones with the app not working properly between those types of phones.

 

[MrX]

We frequently get announcements that say if you have been "in Crossroads pub/another specific location between 6th and 12th August please get tested" or "at so-and-so gym between 4 & 6pm on Wednesday 9th July please get tested".

Transmission of the virus between strangers is considered important in Australia. And it has been proved that people have caught the virus from simply being in the same location as an infected person (yes, we social distance).
Hence our lockdowns and stay at home orders, and the deep cleaning of schools and other locations.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...ed-to-melbourne-outbreak-20200714-p55c12.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...h-the-war-zone-detective-20200715-p55ce8.html

That is so different from here. Maybe AZ is unique, but I have never heard of any contact tracing taking place - no announcements, no calls, no stories about places where a case was detected. It will be interesting to see if it pick up again, once weather gets nice, of if it has really burned itself out here.

The other day I was comparing Rt numbers with cases per 100K. 8 of the top 10 states for cases per 100k had Rt below 1, while 7 out of 10 states with fewest cases per 100k had Rt over 1. If it really just needs to burn through a population, is it possible that places like the U.S. and Brazil will see this fade away, while other places will be dealing with it for years?

 

[SouthAussie]

That is so different from here. Maybe AZ is unique, but I have never heard of any contact tracing taking place - no announcements, no calls, no stories about places where a case was detected. It will be interesting to see if it pick up again, once weather gets nice, of if it has really burned itself out here.

The other day I was comparing Rt numbers with cases per 100K. 8 of the top 10 states for cases per 100k had Rt below 1, while 7 out of 10 states with fewest cases per 100k had Rt over 1. If it really just needs to burn through a population, is it possible that places like the U.S. and Brazil will see this fade away, while other places will be dealing with it for years?

I think we have discussed and researched before exactly how long it will take before herd immunity takes over. IIRC it would take about 6 years or more in the US? Something like that. If the transmission rate stays as it is.
In the meantime, many more lives are lost, and/or people's health is seriously affected, and healthcare systems/workers continue to be under immense strain.


“We are a ‘traveling to Mars length’ away from achieving herd immunity”
We're Nowhere Near Herd Immunity with COVID-19, Experts Say

What is herd immunity and could it happen in the US?

 

[ilovewings]

So just now had census lady ring our door bell--- i said where is your
mask??--it was of course below her chin-i asked her to put it on and
she did--why didnt she have it on when she approached our home?
i told her we filled out census documents and sent it in months ago

 

[MrX]

Just went to get dog food at Target and it was like Black Friday. If people are working at home, where did all this traffic come from? (They wiped down self-checkout machines, after use, which I don't see happening anywhere.)

 

[mickey2942]

Fairfield teen battling COVID-19 in the ICU: “She’s a fighter”

A very sad story from Montana. A very healthy, normal young girl, in the hospital in Salt Lake City, with Covid. It doesn't look good. Last year, she was in the newspaper for winning 4-H, and doing barrel racing.