Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[Sundog]

Good news for Arizona

Arizona's coronavirus cases, deaths plummet: 'The state has turned a corner,' says Dr. Marc Siegel

 

[Lilibet]

Sounds like this goes along with changed guidance regarding quarantine. Consistent with a realization that this will be with us for a long time and we simply can't keep treating everybody the same. The explosion of cases and along with drop in hospitalizations seem to be transitioning this from crisis mode into something that will be managed, long term.

Yes, this may well be the case that there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach (although I’d like to know Dr Fauci’s opinion on this). In fairness to the CDC, which I just criticized, in my rural county in southern Oregon, cases are increasing. The Public Health Department has not been able to do successful contact tracing, which they say means that the virus is “community spread.” Some of our increase is due to visitors from California, just over the border. Some is due to large gatherings that defy mandates. With all that, the virus will be with us a long time and my husband and I will continue staying home and not having close contact with anyone outside our household. We have friends who don’t take the same precautions, so, needless to say, it will be a very long time before we see them in person.

 

[CSIDreamer]

From Indiana Governor live broadcast. 76% successful contact tracing. National average is 50%.

Is anyone having trouble uploading files? I was going to attach a screenshot.

 

[Sundog]

More good news.

Moderna says COVID-19 vaccine shows signs of working in older adults

 

[Satchie]

How can the DHHS claim that this updated guidance does not undermine contact tracing or “other types of surveillance testing“? How else can contact tracing be accomplished and results confirmed but by testing? But as we’ve been told, more testing means more cases, so in that context this new guidance makes “perfect sense.” Keep the case count lower no matter what.

Quoting from the link:

"I'm concerned that these recommendations suggest someone who has had substantial exposure to a person with Covid-19 now doesn't need to get tested," said Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University who was previously Baltimore's health commissioner.

"This is key to contact tracing, especially given that up to 50% of all transmission is due to people who do not have symptoms. One wonders why these guidelines were changed -- is it to justify continued deficit of testing?"

A spokesperson at the US Department of Health and Human Services denied the change would affect contact tracing efforts, which most public health officials say is key to any eventual control of the virus. "The updated guidance does not undermine contact tracing or any other types of surveillance testing," the spokesperson said.

Updated CDC guidelines now say people exposed to coronavirus may not need to be tested

Here in British Columbia, there's never been widespread testing. The public health official is very experienced, having controlled the previous SARS epidemic in Toronto.

As far as I can figure out, testing is done intensely on health care workers, on everyone who works or lives where there is a breakout, and on anyone who shows or describes symptoms to a doctor/nurse.

If you've been in contact with a known case, a contact tracer will ask you to self isolate for x days.

If you experience any symptoms, you must stay home, phone a number and wait until they arrange a test at a time and place.

I believe this is so that lab results can be delivered super fast when needed, and to stop people with the virus from wandering around looking for/waiting in lines for a test (and spreading it)

Contact tracing.

 

[Simply Southern]

From Indiana Governor live broadcast. 76% successful contact tracing. National average is 50%.

Is anyone having trouble uploading files? I was going to attach a screenshot.

Virginia reaches 84.5 % within 24 hours, 86.8% 7 day rolling average. 15.2% were never reached.

We're also using case managers to assist with medical, housing, meals, food, financial needs for those extremely ill or having to guarantee. Current cases 10,517 monitored by Public Health case management.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/#ContactTracing

 

[musicaljoke]

In the article that deugirtni posted earlier, it also said that a guy in Hong Kong has had the virus twice as well. The 2nd infection was 4½ months after he had recovered from the first infection.

The account of the man in Hong Kong was reported in Nature earlier this week. The article said that he has two different strains, so not just a reoccurance of the original infection.

Coronavirus research updates: Reinfection with SAR-CoV-2 is confirmed for the first time with genetic evidence

25 August ― Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is confirmed for the first time with genetic evidence

A man in Hong Kong who was ill with COVID-19 in March was infected by a different variant of the new coronavirus several months later — the first evidence for reinfection that is supported by genetic analysis.

 

[Lilibet]

CDC was pressured 'from the top down' to change Covid-19 testing guidance, official says - CNNPolitics

A sudden change in federal guidelines on coronavirus testing came this week as a result of pressure from the upper ranks of the Trump administration, a federal health official close to the process tells CNN.

"It's coming from the top down," the official said of the new directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

[10ofRods]

Yes, this may well be the case that there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach (although I’d like to know Dr Fauci’s opinion on this). In fairness to the CDC, which I just criticized, in my rural county in southern Oregon, cases are increasing. The Public Health Department has not been able to do successful contact tracing, which they say means that the virus is “community spread.” Some of our increase is due to visitors from California, just over the border. Some is due to large gatherings that defy mandates. With all that, the virus will be with us a long time and my husband and I will continue staying home and not having close contact with anyone outside our household. We have friends who don’t take the same precautions, so, needless to say, it will be a very long time before we see them in person.

There were definitely Oregonians at Sturgis, too, judging by license plate numbers. And I see a few here in SoCal - especially near the tourist attractions.

So people do travel and then they come home...in every direction.

 

[10ofRods]

But why?

So that it will appear the US has less CoVid, which has political advantages.

 

[10ofRods]

Although, they are not sure if the chemical kills the virus or the alcohol medium does. A worthless study IMO.

Not to mention that since the virus is airborne, you'd have to keep spraying that toxic stuff throughout your home or office, which would irritate people's eyes and membranes and make many people sick, especially over time. That's not the intended use.

Almost any wet chemical will remove CoVid from a volume of air. I guess we should all live underwater.

 

[10ofRods]

Is there any talk of setting up more polling booths so fewer people have to use the same location?

Not where I live. Because of CoVid, the elderly who usually staff the polling places are not signing up. We are desperate for more poll-tenders.

No one wants to be in a school classroom or cafeteria trying to socially distance voters (and the day will be a long one, as voting in person will go even more slowly that usual - plus there will be skirmishes over the mask thing in some places).

I wouldn't work at the polls this year for $50 an hour (they get $15). I wouldn't work there for $100. Not sure at what point the money would convince me - but anyway, to expand places, we need a complete team of workers for the place, plus new numbers of ballot boxes. Four people are needed just to scan the rolls at each polling place, and since its a very long day, each place has two sets of workers. That's going to get scaled back this year (because no one wants to do it), so the prediction is that lines will be long. Polls don't close until after the last person who was in line before the time of poll closing has voted - there's always a person outside to manage the line and close it at a particular time, and even that gets dicey (it's usually an older man, people got really ugly about the long lines in 2016 - and not just in California).

More people have signed up for vote by mail than ever before...

 

[MrX]

Yes, this may well be the case that there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach (although I’d like to know Dr Fauci’s opinion on this). In fairness to the CDC, which I just criticized, in my rural county in southern Oregon, cases are increasing. The Public Health Department has not been able to do successful contact tracing, which they say means that the virus is “community spread.” Some of our increase is due to visitors from California, just over the border. Some is due to large gatherings that defy mandates. With all that, the virus will be with us a long time and my husband and I will continue staying home and not having close contact with anyone outside our household. We have friends who don’t take the same precautions, so, needless to say, it will be a very long time before we see them in person.

I think what you describe is where the "new normal" is heading. There are people who will continue to expand their activities, away from home, and those that won't. I suspect we will move to phase where case and death counts recede and the only really visible metric will be hospitalization. At some point this will take it's place among all other health issues, with accepted guidance and treatments. I can see where signs will be posted at theaters and amusement parks warning "at risk" people of Covid, along with warnings about certain rides or attractions being dangerous for people with heart issues, or epilepsy.

 

[CSIDreamer]

How can the DHHS claim that this updated guidance does not undermine contact tracing or “other types of surveillance testing“? How else can contact tracing be accomplished and results confirmed but by testing? But as we’ve been told, more testing means more cases, so in that context this new guidance makes “perfect sense.” Keep the case count lower no matter what.

Quoting from the link:

"I'm concerned that these recommendations suggest someone who has had substantial exposure to a person with Covid-19 now doesn't need to get tested," said Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University who was previously Baltimore's health commissioner.

"This is key to contact tracing, especially given that up to 50% of all transmission is due to people who do not have symptoms. One wonders why these guidelines were changed -- is it to justify continued deficit of testing?"

A spokesperson at the US Department of Health and Human Services denied the change would affect contact tracing efforts, which most public health officials say is key to any eventual control of the virus. "The updated guidance does not undermine contact tracing or any other types of surveillance testing," the spokesperson said.

Updated CDC guidelines now say people exposed to coronavirus may not need to be tested

I was just thinking this may speed up testing results too. That would be a good thing. Jmo

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Not where I live. Because of CoVid, the elderly who usually staff the polling places are not signing up. We are desperate for more poll-tenders.

No one wants to be in a school classroom or cafeteria trying to socially distance voters (and the day will be a long one, as voting in person will go even more slowly that usual - plus there will be skirmishes over the mask thing in some places).

I wouldn't work at the polls this year for $50 an hour (they get $15). I wouldn't work there for $100. Not sure at what point the money would convince me - but anyway, to expand places, we need a complete team of workers for the place, plus new numbers of ballot boxes. Four people are needed just to scan the rolls at each polling place, and since its a very long day, each place has two sets of workers. That's going to get scaled back this year (because no one wants to do it), so the prediction is that lines will be long. Polls don't close until after the last person who was in line before the time of poll closing has voted - there's always a person outside to manage the line and close it at a particular time, and even that gets dicey (it's usually an older man, people got really ugly about the long lines in 2016 - and not just in California).

More people have signed up for vote by mail than ever before...

I have been a pollworker for at least ten years. I decided about a year ago that I was ready to stop doing it -- I'm cancelling many of my other ongoing obligations as well, ready to "retire" and go full-on hermit with life. But the virus clinched it for me.

I felt a little guilt since I'm the youngest of our usual pollworker crew by more than a decade. But they each have the option to quit as well. (One of them has done so. The others are apparently ok with the risk. And on the up side, it's bringing in some new pollworkers).

We don't (knock wood) have much virus here, but who knows by November. And we are as likely as anywhere, if not more so, to have *angry* voters, who don't like the new social distancing rules, mask rules, etc. I quit as much to avoid being around angry people as I did to avoid the risk of the virus...

 

[Lilibet]

There were definitely Oregonians at Sturgis, too, judging by license plate numbers. And I see a few here in SoCal - especially near the tourist attractions.

So people do travel and then they come home...in every direction.

Yes of course Oregonians travel. I realize I wasn’t clear. I was referring to comments by the county health department about cases they knew came here from Californians visiting family and friends, based on the contact tracing they were able to do. But many Oregonians are reckless, rebellious or uninformed, at least in my very independent southern rural part of the state.

I was appalled by a post on Instagram by a friend in her early 80’s who is a cancer survivor. Her daughter from the Central Valley in CA visited and her local son (who has lung cancer) and local daughter who works all gathered for a group photo. I guess they figure the family time is worth the risk? My friend traveled to CA in June for a graduation party and gets together with her local daughter routinely. Lots of mutual friends made positive comments on her post. I sat on my hands and will continue to sit in our home away from anyone outside our household for as long as it takes. Dying doesn’t scare me, but dying from Covid-19 does.

 

[IceIce9]

Some of the local area restaurants have taken to social media to insist that residents support them. A guilt-inducing statement said that if we don’t step up our support by ordering more carry out, dine-in, or delivery some may be forced out of business.

I used to be a huge supporter of local restaurants, eating out several times a week. But my income is greatly reduced since COVID. I was on COVID lay-off for nearly 3 months and have only been scheduled part time hours since I returned.

And many others are financially struggling as well.

I would support local restaurants more if I could but my priority is paying my mortgage and utilities right now.

 

[MrX]

I was just thinking this may speed up testing results too. That would be a good thing. Jmo

Exactly. There has never been any point in testing thousands of random people, waiting two weeks for results, and never tracing.

In my opinion the focus needs to transition to hospitalization and locations/demographics overrun with negative outcomes, and away from compiling endless lists of cases that never required medical treatment. We are far enough into this that people should know what precautions to follow.

 

[10ofRods]

For as long as covid-19 is around, My preference is to get an absentee ballot, and take it personally to a drop off box that they have set up at libraries etc. That way I ensure my vote gets counted and not lost in the mail nor do I have to stand in line and I can do it many many days before the election.

That's what I'm going to do. Fortunately, I live 7 minutes from the County Clerk's office and they say there will be boxes for drop off there.

This election will be talked about for years to come by those who do the history of elections.

Exactly. There has never been any point in testing thousands of random people, waiting two weeks for results, and never tracing.

In my opinion the focus needs to transition to hospitalization and locations/demographics overrun with negative outcomes, and away from compiling endless lists of cases that never required medical treatment. We are far enough into this that people should know what precautions to follow.

You are far more optimistic about what people in general will do. Did you watch the Sturgis Rally?

At any rate, your plan would lead to far more CoVid infections, so there's that. If that's the desired goal, that'll work.

At any rate, your recipe is not a good one for teachers or others who are going to be exposed to thousands of asymptomatic transmitters. Or for the military. Or for people who have to be around our military in foreign nations.

And as long as people refuse to get tested as a screening measure, many of us with disposable income are not going to go to optional activities and will severely restrict fairly necessary activities.

Be careful what you wish for, because as long as we have a steady death rate, mostly due to asymptomatic carriers, the economy will not fully recover.

50% of CoVid cases (at least) are transmitted by people with no or few symptoms, and who are not going into hospital.

 

[10ofRods]

Yes of course Oregonians travel. I realize I wasn’t clear. I was referring to comments by the county health department about cases they knew came here from Californians visiting family and friends, based on the contact tracing they were able to do. But many Oregonians are reckless, rebellious or uninformed, at least in my very independent southern rural part of the state.

I was appalled by a post on Instagram by a friend in her early 80’s who is a cancer survivor. Her daughter from the Central Valley in CA visited and her local son (who has lung cancer) and local daughter who works all gathered for a group photo. I guess they figure the family time is worth the risk? My friend traveled to CA in June for a graduation party and gets together with her local daughter routinely. Lots of mutual friends made positive comments on her post. I sat on my hands and will continue to sit in our home away from anyone outside our household for as long as it takes. Dying doesn’t scare me, but dying from Covid-19 does.

Every single state seems to have about half their residents in the reckless category. We are toying with the idea of travel, ourselves (to a county in Arizona with low CoVid rates, where we will wear masks, and eat at outdoor places, socially distanced). The motel has special CoVid measures in place and recent travelers praise them.

The problem is going to be the actual travel and that's our worry - so we will probably end up canceling. We'll see. It's still months away.