Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #78

[FrostOwl]

I experienced "arbitrary" tonight. Both venues over served me, but under totally different disguises. I have a sick feeling that if I had Covid, I have it again. The shortness of breath, cough and nose "pinch" are all too familiar, and equally unwelcome. Be good.

Let's hope it's only a common cold, as the symptoms are a bit similar in the beginning. I have had a bit of sniffles myself for some days, nothing like how I felt when diagnosed with Covid-19 in late April.

According to my local infectious disease control physician there are a lot of colds going in my region, and they are more infectious, and are spreading faster than usual. Testing has been done for Covid-19 and the number of those cases haven't gone up, just other infections. There had been a belief that the cold season this year would be milder due to the restrictions for corona, as the number of cases of influenza, and the calici virus this late winter/early spring dropped down when the corona restrictions began.
Stort utbrott av förkylningar förvånar smittskyddsläkare

 

[SouthAussie]

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Well, that was an interesting listen. If you only listen to the first 20 mins, it is worth it.
Long post .. but I think we all might find it interesting - about the vaccines.



Dr Soumya Swaminathan is one of the vaccine experts answering vaccine questions, as people from around the world call in with questions. She said that the side effect that the UK participant suffered in the Oxford vaccine trials is a severe side effect, so the trial was halted. Normal procedure because safety is of the highest priority in any clinical trial.
The data safety monitoring board will look into the details, there will be discussions, and then a decision will be made on how to proceed.
It is a good lesson for everyone that there are ups and downs, and we have to be prepared for that.
We do not need to be overly discouraged, these things happen, we have to wait for the determination by the safety monitoring board. We hope that things will be able to move on, but it depends.


Dr Soumya Swaminathan - in answering a question about the 35 good vaccine candidates, which one could be ready by October.
Clinical trials take time, you cannot rush them, you have to collect enough data on enough numbers of people to satisfy the regulatory agencies. This requires 30,000 - 60,000 people being tested. The participants as well as the doctors do not know who has received the placebo and who has received the vaccine.
They have to be followed up for a minimum of 6 months. A few trials did start in July so it is possible some interim results may come through by the end of the year.
However, follow up for safety needs to continue for longer. The regulatory agencies would need some time to examine those results, and then take an opinion on whether the vaccine is ready for licensing.
It could be the end of the year, the beginning of next year, before we start seeing some results. There is no way of predicting which ones are going to be effective. The proof actually lies in doing the trials.
The data from Phase One and Phase Two has been quite promising for most of the candidates.


Dr Michael Ryan added that the vaccinators do not know who receives the vaccine, and the resulting data is sent to the regulatory authority, and then analysed again.
The reason for this is to make sure that the process is done in the most direct, scientific and honest way possible. And that takes time.
It is not a race against companies and countries. It is a race to support public health in the safest way possible, let's not bet on any horses until we get to the end of this race.


Dr Bruce Aylward added that the reality is it takes longer to recruit people than is thought, build their confidence, have them exposed to the virus ... it takes longer to reach the clinical end points. The timelines inevitably run long. If you look at the current trials, we are not hitting the best possible timelines.
We are really looking at late this year, early next year to have the preliminary results on these products ... at the earliest.

.

 

[SouthAussie]

More .... from margarita's posted link.

Dr Bruce Aylward the world economies are going to lose about 12 trillion dollars over the next 15 months. We all must make a collective effort to get the vaccine to every country, so that public health can recover, international travel and international trade can start again. So the economies can recover.


Question: Dr Tedros, what worries you the most. Right now. At this stage of the pandemic?

Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus What worries me the most is what I have been saying all along. Lack of solidarity. Because when solidarity lacks, and when we are divided, that’s a very good opportunity for the virus. And that’s why it is still spreading.
So that is what worries me, and that is what I ask the world to do. There are good signs but it is not enough. Lack of solidarity remains to be the major challenge.

 

[SouthAussie]

Last bit from me .... from margarita's posted link.

Dr Michael Ryan in response to a question about whether anyone is going to do a challenge trial. A number of institutions involved have discussed challenge trials. To their knowledge, a protocol has not been submitted for a challenge trial. It may have happened but they are not aware of a challenge trial having been initiated or started.


I have put some challenge trial info here.


Human challenge trials are trials in which participants are intentionally challenged (whether or not they have been vaccinated) with an infectious disease organism.

It was recognized that regulation of these trials need to be well defined by the NRAs and vaccine developers and manufacturers need to be aware of regulatory expectations.

In many cases, human challenge with a virulent or even an attenuated organism would not be considered ethical or safe.

However, a human challenge trial might be considered when the disease an organism causes has an acute onset, can be readily and objectively detected, and existing efficacious treatments (whether curative or palliative) can be administered at an appropriate juncture in disease development to prevent significant morbidity (and eliminate mortality).
https://www.who.int/biologicals/expert_committee/Human_challenge_Trials_IK_final.pdf

 

[Sundog]

Article on how we need to do careful planning with the air cargo industry as it will be a challenge to transport the vaccine in terms of capacity and other factors.

Coronavirus vaccine distribution will take 8,000 cargo jets: IATA

 

[ilovewings]

Opinion | The Coronavirus Is Mutating, and That’s Fine (So Far)

Coronavirus is mutating, but not in a bad way, according to this article

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I experienced "arbitrary" tonight. Both venues over served me, but under totally different disguises. I have a sick feeling that if I had Covid, I have it again. The shortness of breath, cough and nose "pinch" are all too familiar, and equally unwelcome. Be good.

Sorry to hear this. Will you self isolate at this point?

 

[SouthAussie]

Opinion | The Coronavirus Is Mutating, and That’s Fine (So Far)

Coronavirus is mutating, but not in a bad way, according to this article

It seems he is speaking of the initial D614G mutation that we knew about months ago. As far back as May.


... the versions of the virus today are roughly 99.95 percent the same as the Wuhan original.

For now, though, SARS-CoV-2 essentially is the same virus that emerged in December. Sure, it has mutated, but not, so far, in ways that should change how scientists think about how to tackle it — and not in ways that should worry you.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

False information is never good. JMO

We live with false information constantly.
From leadership to conspiracy theories all over facebook, false information is simply the fabric of America now.

 

[CSIDreamer]

I'm interested to see what will happen with the Covid numbers in the areas being impacted by wildfires and smoke, which a friend in Washington describes as "particulate smoke". I'm hoping the death rate doesn't worsen due to lung damage from the wildfire events. Jmo

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Nah. I think that the people you describe are few and far between.

I don't consider myself to be exceptional. JMO

Oh, man, I wish. But a huge portion of people on my friends list on FB really are in denial. These are people I actually know in real life and it's disconcerting to say the least.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus infections surge by 60% in England with 3,200 new cases each day

COVID-19 infections in England have soared by 60% - with 3,200 new cases now being seen each day, according to official estimates.

The figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the period 30 August to 5 September is up from 2,000 a day in the previous week.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Households to be banned from meeting each other in Birmingham, Solihull and Sandwell

Households will be banned from meeting each other in Birmingham, Sandwell and Solihull from Tuesday.

The order from the Department of Health was announced at a news conference by the West Midlands Combined Authority.

COVID-19 infections in Birmingham have been increasing - and there are also concerns about the rising number of cases nationally.

 

[beatrixpotter]

We live with false information constantly.
From leadership to conspiracy theories all over facebook, false information is simply the fabric of America now.

I had no idea till this event how many people secretly are willing to believe absolutely crackpot theories. And now it's no longer secret. Everyone's openly paranoid. They are willing to believe any stupid meme and theory they hear over any official sources.

I have to admit to being prone to some conspiracy theories in the past. But I was following this since January and knew what was going on. It's made it impossible for me to buy in to stupid theories and honestly it's made me question a lot of things.

To be fair I have friends online in Canada, New Zealand and Australia who ALL are some form of covid denier so it's not limited to just Americans. But the level of denial that people are constantly striving for absolutely astounds me.

My friend from New Zealand has actually been the most heartless in saying people just die and it's stupid to do anything to prevent spread of this virus and then shares any article she can find to show that masks are ineffective.

Before this event I considered her one of the kindest people I knew and who was always compassionate toward others. Now? Wow. Just blown away with the harshness in her remarks regarding how people just die and totally acting like it's "only the sick and elderly" dying while fully admitting she is actually super high risk herself. It blows me away how lacking in compassion people can be towards others. We care until caring impinges on our freedom or the economy or whatever excuse there is...

 

[SouthAussie]

I had no idea till this event how many people secretly are willing to believe absolutely crackpot theories. And now it's no longer secret. Everyone's openly paranoid. They are willing to believe any stupid meme and theory they hear over any official sources.

I have to admit to being prone to some conspiracy theories in the past. But I was following this since January and knew what was going on. It's made it impossible for me to buy in to stupid theories and honestly it's made me question a lot of things.

To be fair I have friends online in Canada, New Zealand and Australia who ALL are some form of covid denier so it's not limited to just Americans. But the level of denial that people are constantly striving for absolutely astounds me.

My friend from New Zealand has actually been the most heartless in saying people just die and it's stupid to do anything to prevent spread of this virus and then shares any article she can find to show that masks are ineffective.

Before this event I considered her one of the kindest people I knew and who was always compassionate toward others. Now? Wow. Just blown away with the harshness in her remarks regarding how people just die and totally acting like it's "only the sick and elderly" dying while fully admitting she is actually super high risk herself. It blows me away how lacking in compassion people can be towards others. We care until caring impinges on our freedom or the economy or whatever excuse there is...

NZ has had 24 covid deaths. Your friend is lucky to have a good leader who takes such good care of them all.

I have a friend who used to fly to Scotland from Oz four or five times a year - and that is one looong haul - to take care of his elderly parents as they grew older and became unwell.
He'd stay for one week or so ... set up systems for them, bring in care for them, hold their hands. His brother, who lives much closer, couldn't give two hoots. Guess which brother finds the amount of covid deaths not disturbing.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Dumfries cluster involving healthcare settings identified

A cluster of coronavirus cases with links to healthcare settings has been identified in the Dumfries area.

NHS Dumfries and Galloway's public health teams are investigating the outbreak and working with the locations which have been identified.

It said some of the locations were "healthcare settings".

Those who had close contact with a positive case are being contacted by the local Test and Protect team, the health board confirmed.

It added that it wanted to reassure patients attending healthcare settings that "high standards of infection control, with additional specific measures for Covid-19, are in place".

The size of the cluster is unclear.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

New virus restrictions 'possible' in Lanarkshire

Discussions are being held on whether additional coronavirus restrictions will be imposed in Lanarkshire.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the number of new cases in the region was "causing some particular concern".

Public health experts will be holding discussions about the situation over the course of the day.

Ms Sturgeon said it was "possible" that additional restrictions may have to be announced on Friday or over the weekend.

NHS Lanarkshire warned last week that both North and South Lanarkshire were "very close" to having restrictions imposed, similar to those in Glasgow and other neighbouring areas.

Ms Sturgeon told her daily briefing that an additional 39 people had tested positive for the virus in Lanarkshire since Thursday.

 

[ilovewings]

China Injects Hundreds of Thousands With Experimental Covid-19 Vaccines

In China they are injecting hundreds of thousands with experimental Covid-19 vaccines.

 

[tresir2012]

More .... from margarita's posted link.

Dr Bruce Aylward the world economies are going to lose about 12 trillion dollars over the next 15 months. We all must make a collective effort to get the vaccine to every country, so that public health can recover, international travel and international trade can start again. So the economies can recover.


Question: Dr Tedros, what worries you the most. Right now. At this stage of the pandemic?

Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus What worries me the most is what I have been saying all along. Lack of solidarity. Because when solidarity lacks, and when we are divided, that’s a very good opportunity for the virus. And that’s why it is still spreading.
So that is what worries me, and that is what I ask the world to do. There are good signs but it is not enough. Lack of solidarity remains to be the major challenge.

Last bit from me .... from margarita's posted link.

Dr Michael Ryan in response to a question about whether anyone is going to do a challenge trial. A number of institutions involved have discussed challenge trials. To their knowledge, a protocol has not been submitted for a challenge trial. It may have happened but they are not aware of a challenge trial having been initiated or started.


I have put some challenge trial info here.


Human challenge trials are trials in which participants are intentionally challenged (whether or not they have been vaccinated) with an infectious disease organism.

It was recognized that regulation of these trials need to be well defined by the NRAs and vaccine developers and manufacturers need to be aware of regulatory expectations.

In many cases, human challenge with a virulent or even an attenuated organism would not be considered ethical or safe.

However, a human challenge trial might be considered when the disease an organism causes has an acute onset, can be readily and objectively detected, and existing efficacious treatments (whether curative or palliative) can be administered at an appropriate juncture in disease development to prevent significant morbidity (and eliminate mortality).
https://www.who.int/biologicals/expert_committee/Human_challenge_Trials_IK_final.pdf

I did post something earlier this week about a challenge trial in UK that had begun with interviews with some who had signed up. I'll see if I can post the link again.

Would you agree to have coronavirus squirted up your nose?

There are plenty who would, and indeed are campaigning to be allowed to take part in so-called "challenge trials" to try to accelerate development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Alastair Fraser-Urquhart is one of them. He's 18 and has just received his A-level results. Initially he did not have the grades he needed to study cancer biomedicine at University College London, until the government U-turn.

Now he does, he's thinking about taking a year out, in part to work with 1 Day Sooner, a group campaigning for Covid vaccine challenge trials.

"I'm in the lowest-risk category for Covid so why wouldn't I make that choice and help save other people who would deal with it far worse than me," he says.

Continued at link

 

[KALI]

My daughter and her fiance had to evacuate 17 horses, 3 sheep and their 3 dogs last night in Oregon. They found a ranch
to go to, but they will be camping out in their in a tent. Fortunately they do a lot of camping, so they are well supplied.
It took them 7 hours to round
up all the animals and get them into the horse trailers as the horses run free on their acerage. She started calling for trailers two days ago to get them ready to help.
Smart. They have no idea how long they'll be camping out, or if their ranch will still be there. They would not go to a shelter for anything. But, they are young and fit.

LIST: Temporary shelters as wildfires rip through Oregon | KOIN.com

This can't be good, to have to evacuate to a shelter during the pandemic. The fires are terrible this year, 1000's of homes are gone.