Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #78

[MrX]

<modsnip: hearsay not allowed>I checked numbers, here, for June, and see 991 deaths attributed to Covid, but an excess of 1576 deaths over same month, last year (2018 was similar to 2019). That would seem to go against the theory that, for whatever reason, Covid deaths were being exaggerated. But it also leaves 585 of those excess deaths being attributed to something other than Covid. I checked, and see that January of 2018 had almost as many total deaths as June, of this year. Assuming that lock downs and travel restrictions kept our "snow birds" here for the summer, then everything makes much more sense: more people died this past June, because more people (overwhelmingly Seniors) were still here instead of at their summer abodes. And the numbers then allow for conspirasists to argue that the Covid numbers are somehow "made up."

In other news, it looks like all of the cases from returning college students are getting tabulated, pushing our percent positive from 4 to 5.

 

[10ofRods]

When do you anticipate us getting back to how we were before Covid-19?

We're a diverse group here, hearing from, and under the rules of our individual leaders.
You've studied and researched much more then most.

For me, personally, in So. California, I'm thinking we will not be back to "normal" until next May, 2021.
What do you think? Please mention where you live.

A lot of us think we will never fully go back to normal, within our lifetimes anyway - but that relatively normal circumstances will prevail from late 2021 or early 2022. A lot depends on the vaccine.

I don't anticipate colleges and universities requiring students on campus until 2022 at the earliest, because we are dealing with the intersection of two vulnerable populations. Average age of a professor at my college is 57. Average age of a tenured professor is 60. And the students are of course mostly silent transmitters.

Our classrooms lack windows. At most California state schools, ventilation is poor (and air conditioning experts have been called in - the L.A. area colleges are at about 20-25% of the air turn-over rate considered healthy and 10% of what is needed to recirculate well enough to combat CoVid). It's going to take time to retrofit. A/C experts say it can be done in two months - but of course, there are no funds.

We will probably reopen with half capacity per classroom and masks required. (Is that "normal"? I don't think so). At any rate, that means half the classes will have to remain online, because we simply don't have real world classroom capacity if we can only put 50% of the students in a room.

Areas near colleges/universities will feel this.

Theaters? Never going back to normal, IMO. Bankrupt. businesses? Many will not come back. GameStop isn't going to reopen those stores.

National Parks? May have longterm entrance restrictions, not just due to CoVid but also to fire risks and other risks.

Downtown areas? Probably will return to normal, except for the absence of the many workers who will now permanently work from home. So many businesses are realizing that paying rent for office space is unnecessary and there's a boom in distance management software sales (I get offers daily and I'm no longer a manager of anything - but it's interesting...)

There's a drive to be social, and people will want to go to restaurants, retail, etc., but the over 60 crowd will remain reluctant. The over 60 crowd is a sizable percentage of many businesses' bottom line.

Medical care? Hmmm. Telemedicine is probably here to stay - it works, it's cheap, it's effective. Office visits in the real world will never go back to normal. A lot of people are actually contacting their doctors more frequently online (if they are insured).

Bankruptcies aren't over - so that's hard to predict. I posted yesterday about Air France/KLM - may go under altogether. Virgin Atlantic is in reorganization, I believe. Delta and other airlines haven't furloughed (laid off) many employees - but say they will do so in third or fourth quarter of this year (thousands of people). Manufacturers are going to lay people off too.

Travel industry? Unless the US can bring its CoVid rates down to below 1% positivity for a while, there are whole nations that will not allow us in (and some that are tightening the rules). Canada isn't going to open their border for a long time <modsnip: off topic>. Travel insurance isn't going to cover CoVid or other infectious diseases, so again, cautious older people won't travel out of their nation.

Oil will continue to be consumed at a lower rate, due to all of this (especially the work-at-home and the elderly travelers). We're already seeing layoffs in that industry here in California.

Will trade with China ever go back to normal? It certainly will take time, even if the upcoming election chooses a different WH occupant - these agreements take time to change. Right now, China is rapidly pivoting to sell to non-US, non-North American, non-Australia customers. They are also following a well known economic model that helps them increase consumption at home (sometimes called the eco-friendly model or a circular economy - very much used in China and Japan). Meanwhile, longshoremen and truck drivers are radically under-employed. WalMart will find new manufacturers - but where? No easy way to replace all the cheap goods coming from China.

With unemployment as high as it is, and with so many businesses not planning to rehire onsite IT, security guards, receptionists, couriers, etc., we'll have to think of ways to get people into other areas (healthcare desperately needs people - but currently, our immigration policies are so strict, we have to rely on our own young people).

Who, btw, are changing their majors away from health rapidly (and we always had a dirth of them anyway - we literally must important nurses from outside the US or we are screwed). So, if we think having mostly immigrant doctors and nurses is "normal," (UK is pretty close to this already), then healthcare will remain "normal." Elective procedures are resuming nicely here in California - that's pretty normal (but I'm still afraid to go to the eye doctor or the dentist - and I am not alone).

 

[10ofRods]

<modsnip: hearsay not allowed>I checked numbers, here, for June, and see 991 deaths attributed to Covid, but an excess of 1576 deaths over same month, last year (2018 was similar to 2019). That would seem to go against the theory that, for whatever reason, Covid deaths were being exaggerated. But it also leaves 585 of those excess deaths being attributed to something other than Covid. I checked, and see that January of 2018 had almost as many total deaths as June, of this year. Assuming that lock downs and travel restrictions kept our "snow birds" here for the summer, then everything makes much more sense: more people died this past June, because more people (overwhelmingly Seniors) were still here instead of at their summer abodes. And the numbers then allow for conspirasists to argue that the Covid numbers are somehow "made up."

Good post, MrX. I wish everyone had your critical thinking skills. This is exactly the case. Unless there's some mysterious other reason for these medical deaths, CoVid has killed almost twice as many people as we've recorded (not the other way around).

We are seeing an uptick in opioid deaths in some states (30-40% more in some places!) but of course those have been properly recorded as opioid deaths.

Personally, I think CoVid causes some neuropsychiatric symptoms that cause people to take riskier behaviors or to be paranoid, but we're not counting those in the total either (just pointing out that some percentage - maybe 10-20% of the excess deaths) are not from CoVid but from car accidents, homicide, suicide and accidental overdoses.

Conspiracy theorists don't really care about the facts and do not take the time (and often do not have the mental toolkit) to actually study the numbers, much less the procedures that result in the numbers. I've started thinking that in scary times, some people prefer to be ostriches - and prefer to have "facts" that allow them to proceed ahead as usual - it's not surprising. That's what we see all over the world when humans face unpleasant social changes.

 

[tresir2012]

A lot of us think we will never fully go back to normal, within our lifetimes anyway - but that relatively normal circumstances will prevail from late 2021 or early 2022. A lot depends on the vaccine.

I don't anticipate colleges and universities requiring students on campus until 2022 at the earliest, because we are dealing with the intersection of two vulnerable populations. Average age of a professor at my college is 57. Average age of a tenured professor is 60. And the students are of course mostly silent transmitters.

Our classrooms lack windows. At most California state schools, ventilation is poor (and air conditioning experts have been called in - the L.A. area colleges are at about 20-25% of the air turn-over rate considered healthy and 10% of what is needed to recirculate well enough to combat CoVid). It's going to take time to retrofit. A/C experts say it can be done in two months - but of course, there are no funds.

We will probably reopen with half capacity per classroom and masks required. (Is that "normal"? I don't think so). At any rate, that means half the classes will have to remain online, because we simply don't have real world classroom capacity if we can only put 50% of the students in a room.

Areas near colleges/universities will feel this.

Theaters? Never going back to normal, IMO. Bankrupt. businesses? Many will not come back. GameStop isn't going to reopen those stores.

National Parks? May have longterm entrance restrictions, not just due to CoVid but also to fire risks and other risks.

Downtown areas? Probably will return to normal, except for the absence of the many workers who will now permanently work from home. So many businesses are realizing that paying rent for office space is unnecessary and there's a boom in distance management software sales (I get offers daily and I'm no longer a manager of anything - but it's interesting...)

There's a drive to be social, and people will want to go to restaurants, retail, etc., but the over 60 crowd will remain reluctant. The over 60 crowd is a sizable percentage of many businesses' bottom line.

Medical care? Hmmm. Telemedicine is probably here to stay - it works, it's cheap, it's effective. Office visits in the real world will never go back to normal. A lot of people are actually contacting their doctors more frequently online (if they are insured).

Bankruptcies aren't over - so that's hard to predict. I posted yesterday about Air France/KLM - may go under altogether. Virgin Atlantic is in reorganization, I believe. Delta and other airlines haven't furloughed (laid off) many employees - but say they will do so in third or fourth quarter of this year (thousands of people). Manufacturers are going to lay people off too.

Travel industry? Unless the US can bring its CoVid rates down to below 1% positivity for a while, there are whole nations that will not allow us in (and some that are tightening the rules). Canada isn't going to open their border for a long time <modsnip: off topic>. Travel insurance isn't going to cover CoVid or other infectious diseases, so again, cautious older people won't travel out of their nation.

Oil will continue to be consumed at a lower rate, due to all of this (especially the work-at-home and the elderly travelers). We're already seeing layoffs in that industry here in California.

Will trade with China ever go back to normal? It certainly will take time, even if the upcoming election chooses a different WH occupant - these agreements take time to change. Right now, China is rapidly pivoting to sell to non-US, non-North American, non-Australia customers. They are also following a well known economic model that helps them increase consumption at home (sometimes called the eco-friendly model or a circular economy - very much used in China and Japan). Meanwhile, longshoremen and truck drivers are radically under-employed. WalMart will find new manufacturers - but where? No easy way to replace all the cheap goods coming from China.

With unemployment as high as it is, and with so many businesses not planning to rehire onsite IT, security guards, receptionists, couriers, etc., we'll have to think of ways to get people into other areas (healthcare desperately needs people - but currently, our immigration policies are so strict, we have to rely on our own young people).

Who, btw, are changing their majors away from health rapidly (and we always had a dirth of them anyway - we literally must important nurses from outside the US or we are screwed). So, if we think having mostly immigrant doctors and nurses is "normal," (UK is pretty close to this already), then healthcare will remain "normal." Elective procedures are resuming nicely here in California - that's pretty normal (but I'm still afraid to go to the eye doctor or the dentist - and I am not alone).

<modsnip: quoted post was modsnipped>

I agree things will change, but not necessarily for the worse - like the example you give of telemedicine, but also finally more use of video conferencing. I think students will continue to have disruptions until a vaccine has been rolled out to at least 50% of the population, whenever that may be but hopefully all health and emergency staff plus over 50's ( like your professors) will all be priority.

Back in UK we have highest daily rise since May. Worrying.

Britain records nearly 4,000 new Covid-19 cases in highest daily total since MAY | Daily Mail Online

Vanessa Chalmers Health Reporter For Mailonline and Stephen Matthews Health Editor For Mailonline14:18, 16 Sep 2020 , updated 21:29, 16 Sep 2020

1.2k comments

• • The seven-day average is now 3,286 compared with 2,358 last Wednesday - a 40 per cent rise
  • Infections have soared in the past fortnight after schools and workplaces began to return to normality
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson has defended the failing coronavirus testing system today
  • He said it is trying to meet a 'colossal spike' in demand as official draw up testing priority plans
  • It comes as official data shows cases among people in their 40s and 50s have risen by 90% since August
  • Public Health England data reveals 23.4 cases are now diagnosed for every 100,000 people aged 40 to 49
  • In comparison, the Covid-19 infection rate for the same age group in England was 12.4 at the end of August
  • Fears of a second wave are growing as number of daily cases has topped 3,000 for the first time since May

 

[tresir2012]

Trump appointee Michael Caputo takes leave of absence from HHS after online rant

On Sunday, in a private Facebook Live video, Caputo -- a one-time 2016 Trump campaign aide who does not have any prior experience in public health -- accused government scientists of harboring a "resistance unit" at the CDC and predicted there would be shootings on inauguration day. He went on to say he was under siege by the media, adding that his physical health was in question and his "mental health has definitely failed."


"After consultation with President Trump and Secretary Azar, I have decided to take a temporary medical leave of absence to pursue necessary screenings for a lymphatic issue discovered last week," Caputo wrote in a statement released to the press on Wednesday.


Caputo praised the health experts advising President Donald Trump, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, who he said conferred with his personal physician on his health issues.


"Sometimes we disagree, but we work in unity to defeat the virus and we care for one another," Caputo wrote.

More at link.

 

[musicaljoke]

I need to see if there is any info regarding suicides and overdoses. I know my state had a crazy rise during lockdown. It was awful.

Mental health issues during lockdown are certainly a problem for many people. We've got the main points down pat; social distance, wash your hands, wear a mask, avoid gathering. But we've heard very little about how to manage mental health issues. Perhaps our leaders could now expand their message to include mental health care ideas.

The WHO has #HealthyAtHome ideas for looking after your mental health:

Keep informed. Listen to advice and recommendations from your national and local authorities. Follow trusted news channels, such as local and national TV and radio, and keep up-to-date with the latest news from @who on social media.

Have a routine. Keep up with daily routines as far as possible, or make new ones.

Get up and go to bed at similar times every day.
Keep up with personal hygiene.
Eat healthy meals at regular times.
Exercise regularly.
Allocate time for working and time for resting.
Make time for doing things you enjoy.

Minimize newsfeeds. Try to reduce how much you watch, read or listen to news that makes you feel anxious or distressed. Seek the latest information at specific times of the day, once or twice a day if needed.

Social contact is important. If your movements are restricted, keep in regular contact with people close to you by telephone and online channels.
Alcohol and drug use. Limit the amount of alcohol you drink or don’t drink alcohol at all. Don’t start drinking alcohol if you have not drunk alcohol before. Avoid using alcohol and drugs as a way of dealing with fear, anxiety, boredom and social isolation.
There is no evidence of any protective effect of drinking alcohol for viral or other infections. In fact, the opposite is true as the harmful use of alcohol is associated with increased risk of infections and worse treatment outcomes.

And be aware that alcohol and drug use may prevent you from taking sufficient precautions to protect yourself again infection, such as compliance with hand hygiene.

Screen time. Be aware of how much time you spend in front of a screen every day. Make sure that you take regular breaks from on-screen activities.

Video games. While video games can be a way to relax, it can be tempting to spend much more time on them than usual when at home for long periods. Be sure to keep the right balance with off-line activities in your daily routine.

Social media. Use your social media accounts to promote positive and hopeful stories. Correct misinformation wherever you see it.

Help others. If you are able to, offer support to people in your community who may need it, such as helping them with food shopping.

Support health workers. Take opportunities online or through your community to thank your country’s health-care workers and all those working to respond to COVID-19.

#HealthyAtHome

 

[CSIDreamer]

Mental health issues during lockdown are certainly a problem for many people. We've got the main points down pat; social distance, wash your hands, wear a mask, avoid gathering. But we've heard very little about how to manage mental health issues. Perhaps our leaders could now expand their message to include mental health care ideas.

The WHO has #HealthyAtHome ideas for looking after your mental health:

Keep informed. Listen to advice and recommendations from your national and local authorities. Follow trusted news channels, such as local and national TV and radio, and keep up-to-date with the latest news from @who on social media.

Have a routine. Keep up with daily routines as far as possible, or make new ones.

Get up and go to bed at similar times every day.
Keep up with personal hygiene.
Eat healthy meals at regular times.
Exercise regularly.
Allocate time for working and time for resting.
Make time for doing things you enjoy.

Minimize newsfeeds. Try to reduce how much you watch, read or listen to news that makes you feel anxious or distressed. Seek the latest information at specific times of the day, once or twice a day if needed.

Social contact is important. If your movements are restricted, keep in regular contact with people close to you by telephone and online channels.
Alcohol and drug use. Limit the amount of alcohol you drink or don’t drink alcohol at all. Don’t start drinking alcohol if you have not drunk alcohol before. Avoid using alcohol and drugs as a way of dealing with fear, anxiety, boredom and social isolation.
There is no evidence of any protective effect of drinking alcohol for viral or other infections. In fact, the opposite is true as the harmful use of alcohol is associated with increased risk of infections and worse treatment outcomes.

And be aware that alcohol and drug use may prevent you from taking sufficient precautions to protect yourself again infection, such as compliance with hand hygiene.

Screen time. Be aware of how much time you spend in front of a screen every day. Make sure that you take regular breaks from on-screen activities.

Video games. While video games can be a way to relax, it can be tempting to spend much more time on them than usual when at home for long periods. Be sure to keep the right balance with off-line activities in your daily routine.

Social media. Use your social media accounts to promote positive and hopeful stories. Correct misinformation wherever you see it.

Help others. If you are able to, offer support to people in your community who may need it, such as helping them with food shopping.

Support health workers. Take opportunities online or through your community to thank your country’s health-care workers and all those working to respond to COVID-19.

#HealthyAtHome

It sure isn't easy. I've never been so happy to go back to work as I was in May. I'm still not 100%. Jmo

I was not okay.

 

[10ofRods]

Sweden's 'herd immunity' approach to COVID-19 appears to be working

Pictures and news snippets from around the world.

Sure, if you consider being #10 in terms of most deaths per capita in the world "working." Out of 195 entrants in the competition.

Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland all have fairly similar hits to their economies, if that's what you mean.

You can also say the US's approach to "herd immunity" seems to be working too.

Unfortunately, the assessment of actual immunity in all of these nations is well below what is needed for herd immunity. The term refers to a point at which enough of the population has lasting immunity to a disease. For all the nations mentioned, only about 1-3% of the population has verifiably had CoVid.

We need to get to 60%-70%. So we need Swedes and others to stop staying home and get out there and get CoVid.

3% of the general population, if they get CoVid, will die. We don't have enough of anything (PPE or treatments) to prevent that. 3% of the US is a lot of people.

For people aged 85 and over, the most recent studies say that 25% will die, but this apparently only bothers some people, since obviously an 85 year old only had about 5-15 years left anyway (if you can live to 85, though, your average life expectancy in the US before CoVid was 6 years for men and 7 years for women - on average, which means that roughly half would have lived longer). I'm starting to realize that our emphasis on healthy aging and life expectancy was a misplaced medical goal - fighting the cancers and diseases of older age should probably be reprioritized (and doctors are starting to discuss this). There are many diseases that we've been trying to understand and treat so that LE could be increased - obviously, it's not a social priority for many.

For people 75-84, "only" about 10% will die if they get CoVId.

In my own age group, it's 3-3.5%, which is too high for me. I personally tried to avoid many things that would have upped my risk of dying by only .001% or .0001%. I guess I'm super cautious. But I prefer not to have carcinogens in my food, even though it's such a small risk. I seriously do think that after CoVid, there will be less will to test food additives and forbid them broadly if people want them. Heck, we banned saccharine even though only a tiny number die.

We have abolished asbestos from all residential and public buildings in California (and many other places), despite the risk of mesothelioma being very, very low. The risk of getting it is about .000006% Even people who work with it only have twice that risk. Turpines and other banned chemicals kill far fewer people than asbestos.

So hey, now that we're all becoming comfortable with 3% of the world's population dying (at minimum), why bother with all those other tiny risks? Why manage them?

These are the questions I ponder when someone posts about herd immunity. Keep in mind that for 60-70% of us to get immunity to CoVid (without a vaccine), nearly everyone has to get CoVId who is going to get it (some people aren't going to get it due to their age and immune systems - but they'll get it when they're older, becaue in herd immunity, the virus never goes away, just rolls on in ever smaller waves).

Hopefully, we'll only need to take the vaccines once a year - or maybe even less often. But we know that as many as 30% of adults won't go for the vaccine and many will forget their boosters (if needed).

That's why so many doctors say: there will be no herd immunity for this one. Sweden doesn't have it - isn't anywhere close, but all the data show that they are social distancing, wearing masks in indoor social settings, downsizing gatherings, and most especially, working from home.

Modern Epidemiology

(The book is an introduction to the subject but covers the basics of herd immunity, which requires of course a good understanding of epidemics and how they work in various populations).

 

[10ofRods]

CDC director: Masks may protect people better than future COVID-19 vaccine
https://bit.ly/3kAKLLR

https://twitter.com/WNCN/status/1306262335309447169

CDC director: Masks may protect people better than future COVID-19 vaccine | CBS 17

The research on which he bases this is related to my lengthy post above. He's right. The big reason is because many people won't get the vaccine (for many reasons) and in some groups, the virus may still overwhelm immunity.

So, I'm now at peace with the fact that I will be wearing a mask in public unless I choose to die alone from CoVid. I think I prefer to die later and from something else, so I will be social distancing and wearing a mask indefinitely.

Unless I move to Canada or Australia, which seems impossible right now. The US is so big, this thing is just going to keep rolling around like a wrecking ball. Unless we formulate national policies that actually work. Like Canada or New Zealand or Australia or Greece or Vietnam or...well, I guess I won't list all of them.

 

[musicaljoke]

When do you anticipate us getting back to how we were before Covid-19?

We're a diverse group here, hearing from, and under the rules of our individual leaders.
You've studied and researched much more then most.

For me, personally, in So. California, I'm thinking we will not be back to "normal" until next May, 2021.
What do you think? Please mention where you live.

Thank you for raising this interesting question. I'm sure that the answers you receive will depend upon what information if available to the writers. Hmm... actually, we all have the same information, so I guess the answers will depend upon what information each person is ascribing to as credible and where they go for their information, or if they tend more toward wishful thinking.

Based on information available today, it doesn't look like I'll be back to directing a community choir until 2022 or later. It looks like we have some rough patches ahead of us. We still don't have responsible leadership in many key countries, we have too many citizens who are not engaged, and strong health care systems are lacking in many countries. There isn't any talk yet in certain key counties of working on the problem on a united global level.

Even if we get a good vaccine, it's my opinion that it will take at least 18 months to get CoVid under control. Then the question will be asked, how did this pandemic response go so wrong?

 

[SouthAussie]

This is a sad state of affairs. Locked out of your home.

It's getting better, Kali. Don't believe all the hype that is printed. There are just 2,500 people remaining outside the country who are considered in greater need.

Several states have been pushing for more people to be able to come home (currently 4,000 per week), and just yesterday raised limits were brought in - despite a holdout state not agreeing with the process. (Usually these things are agreed by National Cabinet, which is all states).

My own state is quadrupling its intake. It all depends on how well each state can handle the incomers. Quarantine and potential hospital requirements. These people are coming from virus-ridden places.

We are very focussed on keeping the situation safe for all Australians. Especially after the last quarantine debacle which caused the 2nd wave in Victoria and too many deaths. A 2nd wave that has put a whole city into severe lockdown for months.

Federal government pre-empts national cabinet to raise the cap for returning Australians

 

[tresir2012]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 29,983,847 Cases and 943,764 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Close to 30 million cases and 1 million deaths worldwide.

Also US deaths went over the 200k mark yesterday and another 890 deaths today. Weekly average slowly falling.

 

[tresir2012]

It's getting better, Kali. Don't believe all the hype that is printed. There are just 2,500 people remaining outside the country who are considered in greater need.

Several states have been pushing for more people to be able to come home (currently 4,000 per week), and just yesterday raised limits were brought in - despite a holdout state not agreeing with the process. (Usually these things are agreed by National Cabinet, which is all states).

My own state is quadrupling its intake. It all depends on how well each state can handle the incomers. Quarantine and potential hospital requirements. These people are coming from virus-ridden places.

We are very focussed on keeping the situation safe for all Australians. Especially after the last quarantine debacle which caused the 2nd wave in Victoria and too many deaths. A 2nd wave that has put a whole city into severe lockdown for months.

Federal government pre-empts national cabinet to raise the cap for returning Australians

Why can't they quarantine at their home or with relatives? Is there any particular reason they cannot be trusted? It does seem harsh.

 

[10ofRods]

It's rather simple why we're where we're at. We were focused on making plans for how quickly we could re-open, before we had even started to shut down in early March. We were like a football player looking at the wide open field to the end zone, before catching the ball.

We couldn't re-open the economy fast enough. And we're essentially where it was predicted we'd be today, if the curve wasn't flattened sufficiently.

What's scary is that this isn't over and we're already "reopened." Now we've got many states in climate turmoil, where social distancing and "closing" isn't going to be a first priority. Lots of repairs to be done, lots of vulnerable people mixed with others.

Here is some "good news." Genetic studies seem to be showing that about 5% of us will never get CoVId (although there's more data still to be collected). Almost no one under 19 is going to die (although some may have heart damage). That's about 20% of the population.

That means we'd have real herd immunity at about 75% infection rate. Indeed, since almost nothing is going to work effectively for the 85 and overs, scientists are saying we'll have effective herd immunity (sorry old people!) at around 65%. Almost 7 million Americans have already had CoVid.

Only 213,000,000 more to go!

(Overall CFR is probably .6% - so that's just another 1,300,000 dead) .

And it will take time. As we approach herd immunity (let's say, 100,000,000 of us have gotten CoVid, 1 million have died), the risks in small towns and rural areas away from the interstates will decline radically. The risks in cities, high rise buildings, crowded classrooms and workplaces will decline modestly.

If the optimistic estimate of only .1% CFR is true (and it could be, I like to be optimistic) then we only have to get 213,000,000 people sick, of whom many will having lasting lung and heart damage - then we're halfway there! (But in this model, we're excluding 85 and overs - because they would bump up the CFR rate - many/most of them will be dead in 5-6 years as the herd immunity model plays out).

Other nations are using a .5% CFR, but America has way more co-morbidities (and various factors will mean that the poor and the Black/Hispanic communities will be hardest hit).

Realistically, about 1 million people will die over the next few years - almost 300,000 in 2020, and another 200,000 in 2021, then 100,000 in 2022 and so on.

(Don't get me started on vaccines right now - just stay safe, Dave!)

 

[musicaljoke]

Why can't they quarantine at their home or with relatives? Is there any particular reason they cannot be trusted? It does seem harsh.

Oh my goodness! I can just imagine how many problems that would create. I'm sure that the leaders of the Australian states would never, ever consider such a sloppy solution to something so serious.

Quarantining with relatives is not quarantining at all.

 

[SouthAussie]

Why can't they quarantine at their home or with relatives? Is there any particular reason they cannot be trusted? It does seem harsh.

That worked well for the UK, didn't it? And now their cases are dangerously rising again and restrictions are tightening.

I think it was yourself (?) who explained about all the travellers who had taken off for continental Europe, and returned, then gone home ... probably not quarantining themselves.

 

[Cool Cats]

CDC chief says masks better at stopping coronavirus than a vaccine

“If I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will.”

Redfield went on to say that a vaccine could have an immunogenicity of 70 percent, meaning that it may not work in close to one-third of people to whom it is administered.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield at a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Wednesday.

A recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine suggested that “since masks can filter out some virus-containing droplets” but not all viral particles, a mask could act as a kind of exposure therapy, prepping the body to fight the coronavirus without actually sickening the subject.

If that premise is correct, the article suggested, face mask wearing could become a form of inoculation “that would generate immunity and thereby slow the spread of the virus” during the global wait for the development of a vaccine.

The journal cited two recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in U.S. food-processing plants where workers were required to wear masks every day.

“The proportion of asymptomatic infections among the more than 500 people who became infected was 95%, with only 5% in each outbreak experiencing mild-to-moderate symptoms,” the medical journal said.

The article also said “case-fatality rates in countries with mandatory or enforced population-wide masking have remained even with resurgences of cases after lockdowns were lifted.”

... Dakotas Lead US in Virus Growth as Both Reject Mask Rules

 

[10ofRods]

Half the world’s schoolchildren are still unable to attend classrooms due to the pandemic. Around 872 million – more than half of whom have not been able to study remotely – are not allowed to attend school in person, Unicef executive director Henrietta Fore said.

US says Covid-19 will 'go away' because of 'herd mentality'

I wonder what would happen if all the parents who want their kids in a real classroom were allowed to do so - and teachers who don't mind teaching IRL are put in those classrooms. I bet a lot of newly minted teachers looking for work would take those jobs (but some parents would object if they wear masks <modsnip: inappropriate>). Class ratios might not be optimal. We'd probably see death rates among those teachers comparable to among healthcare workers. Over time, it might be hard to recruit teachers (although if CoVid immunity is lasting, maybe not). The parents would likely get CoVId.

I guess for older grades they could divide the kids into two rooms and the teacher could be on closed circuit for 50% of each class hour - although an aide would have to be in the room with the kids.

Presuming that teachers and aides could be young (24-44), in full PPE (masks and face shields) and socially distanced (10 feet away from the first row of students, no hovering over the desk), those people who were demanding to send children could do so.

I bet a lot of Aussies would prefer not to risk their kids in this environment. I know just one person who wants his kids back in class no matter what, neither of my daughters would send their kids into that situation - but lots of other people would. Most of the parents would survive this, although as many as 80% would have damage to their lungs or heart - some of them would experience irreparable damage (but people get damage from smoking - so it’s like that, I guess).

 

[FrostOwl]

Sure, if you consider being #10 in terms of most deaths per capita in the world "working." Out of 195 entrants in the competition.

Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland all have fairly similar hits to their economies, if that's what you mean.

You can also say the US's approach to "herd immunity" seems to be working too.

Unfortunately, the assessment of actual immunity in all of these nations is well below what is needed for herd immunity. The term refers to a point at which enough of the population has lasting immunity to a disease. For all the nations mentioned, only about 1-3% of the population has verifiably had CoVid.

We need to get to 60%-70%. So we need Swedes and others to stop staying home and get out there and get CoVid.

3% of the general population, if they get CoVid, will die. We don't have enough of anything (PPE or treatments) to prevent that. 3% of the US is a lot of people.

For people aged 85 and over, the most recent studies say that 25% will die, but this apparently only bothers some people, since obviously an 85 year old only had about 5-15 years left anyway (if you can live to 85, though, your average life expectancy in the US before CoVid was 6 years for men and 7 years for women - on average, which means that roughly half would have lived longer). I'm starting to realize that our emphasis on healthy aging and life expectancy was a misplaced medical goal - fighting the cancers and diseases of older age should probably be reprioritized (and doctors are starting to discuss this). There are many diseases that we've been trying to understand and treat so that LE could be increased - obviously, it's not a social priority for many.

For people 75-84, "only" about 10% will die if they get CoVId.

In my own age group, it's 3-3.5%, which is too high for me. I personally tried to avoid many things that would have upped my risk of dying by only .001% or .0001%. I guess I'm super cautious. But I prefer not to have carcinogens in my food, even though it's such a small risk. I seriously do think that after CoVid, there will be less will to test food additives and forbid them broadly if people want them. Heck, we banned saccharine even though only a tiny number die.

We have abolished asbestos from all residential and public buildings in California (and many other places), despite the risk of mesothelioma being very, very low. The risk of getting it is about .000006% Even people who work with it only have twice that risk. Turpines and other banned chemicals kill far fewer people than asbestos.

So hey, now that we're all becoming comfortable with 3% of the world's population dying (at minimum), why bother with all those other tiny risks? Why manage them?

These are the questions I ponder when someone posts about herd immunity. Keep in mind that for 60-70% of us to get immunity to CoVid (without a vaccine), nearly everyone has to get CoVId who is going to get it (some people aren't going to get it due to their age and immune systems - but they'll get it when they're older, becaue in herd immunity, the virus never goes away, just rolls on in ever smaller waves).

Hopefully, we'll only need to take the vaccines once a year - or maybe even less often. But we know that as many as 30% of adults won't go for the vaccine and many will forget their boosters (if needed).

That's why so many doctors say: there will be no herd immunity for this one. Sweden doesn't have it - isn't anywhere close, but all the data show that they are social distancing, wearing masks in indoor social settings, downsizing gatherings, and most especially, working from home.

Modern Epidemiology

(The book is an introduction to the subject but covers the basics of herd immunity, which requires of course a good understanding of epidemics and how they work in various populations).

As for Sweden and the wearing of masks, at least in my corner of Sweden they are seldom seen, not on buses, nor in shops. There are signs in the floor in shops for "safe distance" when queuing, and most people follow those instructions. As for working from home, some do, but there are many/most people can't work from home, and now both the schools and the universities are open again.
The major signs of the pandemic here are the acrylic glass shields in shops, and other places, between the customers and cashiers/sales persons, and that you have to get onboard the bus through the middle doors (former exit doors), and that the first two rows of seats are sealed off for the safety of the driver due to Covid.

 

[MrX]

Good post, MrX. I wish everyone had your critical thinking skills. This is exactly the case. Unless there's some mysterious other reason for these medical deaths, CoVid has killed almost twice as many people as we've recorded (not the other way around).

We are seeing an uptick in opioid deaths in some states (30-40% more in some places!) but of course those have been properly recorded as opioid deaths.

Personally, I think CoVid causes some neuropsychiatric symptoms that cause people to take riskier behaviors or to be paranoid, but we're not counting those in the total either (just pointing out that some percentage - maybe 10-20% of the excess deaths) are not from CoVid but from car accidents, homicide, suicide and accidental overdoses.

Conspiracy theorists don't really care about the facts and do not take the time (and often do not have the mental toolkit) to actually study the numbers, much less the procedures that result in the numbers. I've started thinking that in scary times, some people prefer to be ostriches - and prefer to have "facts" that allow them to proceed ahead as usual - it's not surprising. That's what we see all over the world when humans face unpleasant social changes.

Unfortunately policy makers don't seem to care about facts, either. All of the data, here, indicates that closing bars, gyms and theaters had little, to any effect, yet every daily news story that updates the tally includes boilerplate verbiage about how bad we got, and how the closures made the difference.

One month after we reopened, the first time, the daily case count was 500% higher. Today's cases are 25% lower than the day, one month ago, when bars, gyms and theaters were allowed to reopen. Cases started falling off a cliff almost to the day that the Governor closed those businesses for a second time. The Rt number showed that the spread was receding two weeks prior to those closures.

Our Covid death rate was also substantially higher, during the spike, than other areas of the country. This would seem to support the idea that our June death overage consisted of an elderly population that normally would have been spending the Summer "back East." I suspect a lot of Seniors, here, got lax over Memorial Day (perhaps thinking they were still on "vacation"). The spike in cases and deaths was very steep on the way up, and the way down, without enough restrictions on the population at large to account for it. It's like the whole State became one giant compromised care facility.