Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #88

[acutename]

It would appear Colorado is doing really well compared to the rest of the country. New cases aren’t going up as much as expected and number of daily COVID deaths have declined significantly. It’s shown clearly on Colorado State’s official COVID website:

Tableau Public

Yep, we need to be still be careful of course but things are quite hunky dory here in CO.
In each of the last three days daily deaths have been less than 15, compared to the past couple of weeks when we averaged about 40/day. Maybe we can feel a bit smug knowing we have our act together compared to neighboring states.

That is, as long as we don’t search further for state stats. Because a quick look at NYT’s daily report shows CO 14 day death rate has increased 79%, with record deaths recorded on each of the last three days. NYT shows we topped 100 deaths for the first time since April, compared to less than 15 on the state’s website.

Colorado Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Which trend most accurately reflects CO reality? Unfortunately I’m inclined to believe the NYT numbers, as they are more in line with other state’s trends. Including States that have better mask and social distancing compliance. Plus the NYTs has no skin in Colorado’s game. Unlike State politicians that are doing everything they can to avoid controversy. When we surpassed the State’s preset emergency action thresholds, instead of issuing stay at home orders they increased the threshold. So parents don’t get mad, state HS football championships will proceed as scheduled (with fan attendance), even though they’re being held in CO’s hardest hit COVID county. Health clubs, salons and churches remain open. To appease business owners and dining enthusiasts the State is creating a program to let restaurants in COVID’s hardest hit counties resume in door dining.

Am I over-reacting? I want to scream and cry. Is it any wonder so many Coloradans think masks don’t matter and COVID is just the flu.

Colorado Daily COVID deaths as reported by Colorado. (12/5/20):
View attachment 274564

Colorado daily COVID deaths as reported by the New York Times (12/5/20):

View attachment 274563

MOO

the statistics are really something else because if you have a really high caseload, and it just stays high, then it is not "getting worse," but if you have a really low case load and you get a few more cases, maybe it "percentage wise" looks really bad. I think that CO had a high number of cases but compared to other states, CO has younger people and less obesity, so maybe more recoveries? IMO. If you dive into statistics, the majority of any state's deaths are older people- that is the MO of this virus, but if you let the younger people "go about their lives," the virons spread and take out whomever is susceptible. Not sure how the NYT is getting higher #s than your state DOH. Does the state only count "verified" COVID in its stats and NYT is including "presumed COVID?" Time to read the fine print. I have heard my own state's epidemiologists worry over the imprecision of "cases," "positive tests," and the Ro but at the end of the day, they say the one number that is incontrovertible is deaths-.... (unless you start taking into account comorbidities and then even that number gets fuzzy, so you need to look at "excess deaths" compared to other years. )

 

[acutename]

It would appear Colorado is doing really well compared to the rest of the country. New cases aren’t going up as much as expected and number of daily COVID deaths have declined significantly. It’s shown clearly on Colorado State’s official COVID website:

Tableau Public

Yep, we need to be still be careful of course but things are quite hunky dory here in CO.
In each of the last three days daily deaths have been less than 15, compared to the past couple of weeks when we averaged about 40/day. Maybe we can feel a bit smug knowing we have our act together compared to neighboring states.

That is, as long as we don’t search further for state stats. Because a quick look at NYT’s daily report shows CO 14 day death rate has increased 79%, with record deaths recorded on each of the last three days. NYT shows we topped 100 deaths for the first time since April, compared to less than 15 on the state’s website.

Colorado Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Which trend most accurately reflects CO reality? Unfortunately I’m inclined to believe the NYT numbers, as they are more in line with other state’s trends. Including States that have better mask and social distancing compliance. Plus the NYTs has no skin in Colorado’s game. Unlike State politicians that are doing everything they can to avoid controversy. When we surpassed the State’s preset emergency action thresholds, instead of issuing stay at home orders they increased the threshold. So parents don’t get mad, state HS football championships will proceed as scheduled (with fan attendance), even though they’re being held in CO’s hardest hit COVID county. Health clubs, salons and churches remain open. To appease business owners and dining enthusiasts the State is creating a program to let restaurants in COVID’s hardest hit counties resume in door dining.

Am I over-reacting? I want to scream and cry. Is it any wonder so many Coloradans think masks don’t matter and COVID is just the flu.

Colorado Daily COVID deaths as reported by Colorado. (12/5/20):
View attachment 274564

Colorado daily COVID deaths as reported by the New York Times (12/5/20):

View attachment 274563

MOO

OK- reading the fine print- NYT chart does not show the lower Dec numbers- it stops at the big number at the end of November, but that big number is on the CO chart as well. Look at the light gray columns- not at the black line which is the "seven day rolling average."

people are supposedly watching closely the 14 (or 5 or 10) days after Thanksgiving.... but did people travel and meet up on 11/26 or did they travel a bit earlier and meet up earlier too? And then their traveling after Thanksgiving.... maybe still going on. The other "artifact" in the stats may be that right around the holidays, the reporting is delayed because the hospitals, drs, statisticians, health officials etc., take a break too (well some of them) so the data is not up to date until a few days later.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

"That's more than the number of Americans who died from ischemic heart disease (10,724), tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer (3,965), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (3,766)."

COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the U.S. this week, report says - CBS News
COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the U.S. this week, report says

Which reminds me of the friend who today is ranting on about government taking away choice re mask wearing etc infringing on their lives. Your post made me think of reminding this person they were in favor of the government bans on indoor smoking hehehehe. But nope, I'll not get into it on FB... I'll just vent here.

 

[acutename]

This happened yesterday in Sydney.. another of our hotel workers - a cleaner - caught covid at a quarantine hotel. US strain of covid.


NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard says genomic sequencing has confirmed the COVID-19 strain found in a Sydney hotel worker originated from the United States, likely from a self-isolating airline crew.

"We had an air crew who were self-isolating in the Novotel, somehow the person doing the domestic work there got the virus from a member of that particular crew," Mr Hazzard said.

He said he was now more concerned around not just international travellers but crew managing massive amounts of freight entering the country.

Sydney hotel worker likely caught COVID-19 from self-isolating US airline crew

I read awhile back that even though AUS is an island, it still needs import/export business and commerce with the rest of the world, so it is not ever completely isolated and safe. Hope you all get vaccines before your winter- we were all feeling much better in the summer, and then boom....cases all over again.

 

[sds71]

-- The Baltimore Ravens on Saturday said they were informed by the NFL that "at least four unique strains" of COVID-19 were found inside their facility during the team's outbreak.

"Three of the four were stopped and not spread within our organization," Ravens president Dick Cass said in a statement. "Unfortunately, the fourth was a highly-contagious strain and spread throughout our organization."

'At least' four COVID-19 strains in Ravens' facility

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today and recent news: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 2,369 new confirmed cases for a total of 242,062 confirmed cases of which 157,028 are recovering (+4,697). 62 more were reported to have passed for a total of 2,665. There were 131 hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 960 (-40). According to KWWL, there are 82,369 active postive cases with a 24 hr. positivity rate of 36.9%. Dec. 5: Iowa reports 2,369 new cases, 62 more deaths
access Daily case totals updated at 11:00 a.m.
Iowa first responders see slight increase in calls involving COVID-19
Polk County Health Department explains reason behind spike in deaths

* On a side note, my reports may continue to be a late for a while. Very busy with Christmas activities at home! Also, with the decrease in hospitalizations in Iowa recently, I really don't want to hear the death counts in the next week or so. There have been very few deaths reported for December yet, but in the last 5 days hospitalizations have gone down alot. Sadly, many here don't think it is because they recovered, but because they passed away. I feel the same way. I know it took over a week for the IDPH to report 3 deaths in my county when they were already known.

 

[ilovewings]

Is ‘Natural Immunity’ From Covid Better Than a Vaccine?

The question- Is natural immunity from Covid better than a vaccine?

Duh!!! the answer: should be obvious to anyone with a brain bigger than a pea, which is this: nobody knows how the virus will affect them, from no symptoms to death. So, if you have a brain bigger than a pea, you would know that getting a vaccine is a much better choice.

As I live and breathe-- i never knew so many people in our country could be so clueless---

 

[Colorado303]

the statistics are really something else because if you have a really high caseload, and it just stays high, then it is not "getting worse," but if you have a really low case load and you get a few more cases, maybe it "percentage wise" looks really bad. I think that CO had a high number of cases but compared to other states, CO has younger people and less obesity, so maybe more recoveries? IMO. If you dive into statistics, the majority of any state's deaths are older people- that is the MO of this virus, but if you let the younger people "go about their lives," the virons spread and take out whomever is susceptible. Not sure how the NYT is getting higher #s than your state DOH. Does the state only count "verified" COVID in its stats and NYT is including "presumed COVID?" Time to read the fine print. I have heard my own state's epidemiologists worry over the imprecision of "cases," "positive tests," and the Ro but at the end of the day, they say the one number that is incontrovertible is deaths-.... (unless you start taking into account comorbidities and then even that number gets fuzzy, so you need to look at "excess deaths" compared to other years. )

CO is definitely only including confirmed cases, and even if someone who died tested positive they may not be counted. It’s my understanding if someone w/a manageable heart condition got a terrible case of COVID then had a heart attack while struggling to breath in the ICU, some state coroners aren’t counting it as a COVID death. Even if they would still be alive if they didn’t get covid and even if they would almost certainly have soon died from COVID related respiratory failure had the heart not failed first.

Asking coroners to “use their judgment” as to cause of death without providing clear guidelines and definitions means the official cause of death may depend more on the coroner who gets the case than on the physical details leading to a persons death. Including probable and confirmed cases like NYT is doing removes subjectivity and would provide more accurate trend information. And in my mind, knowing true trends is much more important than nailing the actual number as COVID trends seems to drive precaution compliance, at least in CO. Ironically the State apparently agrees, as Governor Polis has said our recent increase was caused by people letting down their guard after COVID cases subsided this summer. Yet we continue classifying deaths in a way that may completely mask the real trend.

moo

 

[ColyH]

I hope the people that attended that wedding had a good time because some patients at the nursing home they worked may have paid the bill with their life.
7 nursing home Covid-19 deaths reported after staff attended wedding

 

[Colorado303]

OK- reading the fine print- NYT chart does not show the lower Dec numbers- it stops at the big number at the end of November, but that big number is on the CO chart as well. Look at the light gray columns- not at the black line which is the "seven day rolling average."

people are supposedly watching closely the 14 (or 5 or 10) days after Thanksgiving.... but did people travel and meet up on 11/26 or did they travel a bit earlier and meet up earlier too? And then their traveling after Thanksgiving.... maybe still going on. The other "artifact" in the stats may be that right around the holidays, the reporting is delayed because the hospitals, drs, statisticians, health officials etc., take a break too (well some of them) so the data is not up to date until a few days later.

Actually the NYT data runs through Dec 4th. If you go to the actual NYT website and put your finger on their “daily death” chart it shows the date for each data point. If you run your finger all the way to the right you’ll see Dec 4th is the most recent date on their chart. I just double checked to be sure I wasn’t mistaken.

Note: Sometimes I’ve had to repeat the finger slide move several times before the most recent data point is captured.

 

[Colorado303]

OK- reading the fine print- NYT chart does not show the lower Dec numbers- it stops at the big number at the end of November, but that big number is on the CO chart as well. Look at the light gray columns- not at the black line which is the "seven day rolling average."

people are supposedly watching closely the 14 (or 5 or 10) days after Thanksgiving.... but did people travel and meet up on 11/26 or did they travel a bit earlier and meet up earlier too? And then their traveling after Thanksgiving.... maybe still going on. The other "artifact" in the stats may be that right around the holidays, the reporting is delayed because the hospitals, drs, statisticians, health officials etc., take a break too (well some of them) so the data is not up to date until a few days later.

Here’s a screen shot after the finger slide showing Dec 4th as the last date on NYT’s chart.

ETA— I couldn’t get the screenshot to attach here but it’s in my next post.

 

[Colorado303]

 

[Colorado303]

-- The Baltimore Ravens on Saturday said they were informed by the NFL that "at least four unique strains" of COVID-19 were found inside their facility during the team's outbreak.

"Three of the four were stopped and not spread within our organization," Ravens president Dick Cass said in a statement. "Unfortunately, the fourth was a highly-contagious strain and spread throughout our organization."

'At least' four COVID-19 strains in Ravens' facility

Has testing been done to see if recently vaccines will protect against multiple strains?

 

[ilovewings]

Pay attention to science and medicine, or else you may be the next careless victim

A very moving tale from a nurse on the front lines about a patient who thought masks were stupid and he refused to wear one: His "freedom" to not wear a mask, wound up taking his life and no doubt spreading the virus: this nurse is begging people to wear masks- I feel however, her message will fall on deaf ears---

 

[Reasonable & Just]

Haven't been online much today but has this heartbreaking video out of Sherman Oaks, CA been posted? Young woman is losing her government-shuttered restaurant while Hollywood/TV productions set up dining just feet away from her outdoor patio.

Sherman Oaks restaurant owner shares her frustration over LA County dining ban in emotional video

"Everything I own is being taken away from me and they set up a movie company right next to my outdoor patio," Marsden says in the video.

"They have not given us money and they have shut us down. We cannot survive. My staff cannot survive," she also says.

Marsden has owned the restaurant for 10 years. She says she spent around $80,000 setting up an outdoor dining area and making changes to meet L.A. County's health requirements, but she's run out of loan money and can't afford to offer takeout, so for now, she's closing.

Marsden says she went to the restaurant to pay her staff and was in shock when she saw the production tents."

Mods, please delete if duplicate post! Thank you!

It really was hard to witness this woman's pain. I understand that the film project probably involves bubbles and testing, but I get why it is so galling to her. I don't understand the rationale for the outdoor dining restriction, and I don't understand why we aren't helping small business owners survive this crisis.

 

[ilovewings]

I hope the people that attended that wedding had a good time because some patients at the nursing home they worked may have paid the bill with their life.
7 nursing home Covid-19 deaths reported after staff attended wedding

Ask them if they care? they didn't. they are beyond irresponsible --- and they killed those residents.

 

[ilovewings]

COVID: Oregon doctor, who rejects face masks, gets license suspended

Doctor who flaunted that he and staff won't wear masks has had his license suspended. No suprise he was at the "steal the election" rally--- SMH

 

[margarita25]

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So, if you go to around the 4 minute mark, you will see how in AZ they are doing vaccination drills.

You pull up (stay in your car), roll down the window and go through an identification check, then pull into a white tent, and get the jab ... then you drive into a waiting area and wait for 15 minutes before you pull away and go home.

In that 15 minutes, if you have a reaction, toot your horn and they will come and tend to you.

Another video on the same “simulation” in Arizona:

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[MimosaMornings]

‘The Good Lord’s in control’: Hundreds attend NC Christmas parade despite COVID warning — News & Observer

 

[Sprockett7701]

Do you not have a vaccination card from your younger years? They are imperative to keep track of your more-occassional vaccinations (as opposed to the frequency of a flu vac).

I have several vaccination cards. When we travelled a lot when I was a child I had all kinds of unusual vaccinations due to where we travelled (yellow fever vac being one I remember, without looking at the card).

If a card is required to get into a covid safe place, surely that should be reassuring.

I have the children’s cards, would have no idea what happened to my original vaccinations card lol But all of it is on myGov (My Health Record perhaps...)now, certainly the children’s anyway. Do you guys have a similar system in the US? I’m thinking not...
But I would think rather than a physical card they would have an app...