Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #89

Status
Not open for further replies.
  • #161
  • #162
A Covid-infected attendee emerges from CES, a massive tech conference in January | APM Reports

A Covid Infected Attendee emerges from the CES (Consumer Electronics Show) held
in Las Vegas in January 2020-- provides an intriguing puzzle piece of the pandemic's spread- indicating the virus was probably present in the United States earlier than thought

USA Today have done a lot of research and produced this very long, very good, in-depth article (a novella really) about the spread of the virus throughout the US. From what they have discovered, I would say that the virus established a firm foothold in the US - and in other countries - during the first 3 weeks of January.



In the earliest days of what would become a historic pandemic, the novel coronavirus had unfettered access into and throughout the United States.
Thousands of travelers came to San Francisco on a 14-hour direct flight from Wuhan, China — the origin of the virus — in just the first three weeks of January. (2,410 people)
The Chinese government shut down the flight on Jan. 23, eight days before President Donald Trump’s restrictions on travel by Chinese nationals went into effect.

Other international flights continued largely unabated for the first several months of the year. (300,943 flights)
Those flights carried millions of people, an untold number of them infected, into the country from January through April.

Meanwhile, domestic airlines ferried travelers all over the nation during the same time period. (2,334,679 flights)
The movement helped seed the virus among an unsuspecting public, unaware that life as they knew it was about to be upended.

But in an early vacuum of leadership at almost every government level, with the message from the White House that the virus was not anything to worry about, Americans unwittingly spread the lethal virus to loved ones and strangers alike.

“We have it totally under control,” Trump had said the day before when asked about the single known case in the United States. “It’s one person, coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

But none of the early epidemiological research Lee was picking up from China, where the virus had killed thousands and brought life to a standstill, suggested that assessment was correct.

Lee runs a research lab at Mount Sinai’s medical school in New York City.
Lee was one of thousands of scientists throughout the world who had since December been piecing together small studies from doctors in other countries to understand the features of the virus that had emerged in Wuhan, with their clues as to how it could be stopped.

In early January, scientists from China and Australia released an initial genome sequence of the virus. It closely resembled SARS, the virus that much of the world barely dodged two decades earlier.

The U.S. squandered its early advantage. Roughly one year after the virus first came into existence, the country has suffered a loss of life far worse than any other.

The novel coronavirus didn’t start in the United States, but we have made it our own.

AMERICAN VIRUS It may not have started here, but the novel coronavirus became a US tragedy
 
  • #163
Just do simple division.
328,000,000 population ÷ 300,000 dead = 1093

1 in 1093 died.

I believe that may be the problem I am having with the math.

I believe the numerator and a denominator for your calculation is reversed??

For percentage of the population if should be the number of who died over the total, not reverse. And then times it 100.

For example, if 50 people out of 100 had a disease, it would be 50%

Do we all agree on that as a starting point?

. If you put the people that were infected over the people of the total.... If you switch it up and put the number of people in total which is 100 over the people that got it, that would be so much different. I do not agree with that mathematical calculation at all it to the percentage of people that are infected and or died

That calculation of 100 over 50 would be 200%. That is where I think I'm disagreeing with such.

Taking that number of 50 out of 100 it will be 50%. But if you reverse the numerator and denominator it would be 200% which as I think it is what you were doing? I disagree with that.

Sorry that I'm getting into this so much, but I want to make sure the information in these threads is correct.

I'm not agreeing with many people here who are switching out the numerator and denominator and then multiply it by 100. That's not the math I learned long ago. We'll agree to disagree I guess and Others May chime in to help understand in?

I'm still having a hard time understanding because I truly believe it is reverse as far as the numerator and the denominator and what some people are posting here. I may be totally incorrect, but I vehemently don't think I am. And need somebody to continue to explain it to me as I think many people here are mixing up the numerator and a denominator in their calculations
 
Last edited:
  • #164
An interesting read, @SouthAussie thank you.

The Spanish Flu became so named because they were hit hardest by it (or at least that was the impression given, because they reported it more than other countries did during the war, when many nations had news blackouts). Begs the question whether this one will be dubbed American Flu in the history books.

Certainly, America has had the highest deaths by a huge margin, but the death rate per million is currently comparable with several other nations. The biggest difference, the one that makes it so prominent in peoples minds, is the US's farcical leadership which has drawn nothing but negative attention worldwide.
 
  • #165
I believe that may be the problem I am having with the math.

I believe the numerator and a denominator for your calculation is reversed??

For percentage of the population if should be the number of who died over the total, not reverse. And then times it 100.

Pocket is correct. By the end of the year you will have one person in every thousand dead. From Covid.
 
  • #166
Pocket is correct. By the end of the year you will have one person in every thousand dead. From Covid.

I am sooooooooooooooo sorry to be so hard headed, but I don't see that math at all.

Can someone please please take the time to put the math as to 1/1,000 in the US population has died in a math format for me. I think I've done example of the opposite showing reverse as to what numerator and denominator should be..

I'm hardheaded... and I REALLY want to keep up... but I just do not agree and need more as to calculations and corrections on what I posted.

Sorry to be a thorn, but I REALLY think the math is off and I need to have example for mathematics. You guys know me, and know that I'm one to drill down, but I still disagree with 1 in 1,000 in the US have died of COVID. It's off MOO as to the math.

I disagree with 1 out of 1,000 people in the US have died of covid with the numbers we have posted of 300,000 out of 328,000,000. (Taking off 5 zeros for both sets)

That is 3 deaths out of /328,000 population in my calculation

That is 3/3,280 = 0.0009136341

Then multiple by 100 for percentage of the population.....

(3/3,280x100) = .... you do the calculation? I though I knew math.. am I missing something and ignorant? Can someone else assist?
 
Last edited:
  • #167
I am sooooooooooooooo sorry to be so hard headed, but I don't see that math at all.

Can someone please please take the time to put the math as to 1/1,000 in the US population has died in a math format for me. I think I've done example of the opposite showing reverse as to what numerator and denominator should be..

I'm hardheaded... and I REALLY want to keep up... but I just do not agree and need more as to calculations and corrections on what I posted.

Sorry to be a thorn, but I REALLY think the math is off and I need to have example for mathematics. You guys know me, and know that I'm one to drill down, but I still disagree with 1 in 1,000 in the US have died of COVID. It's off MOO as to the math.

304,000 people have died, out of a 331,000,000 population

For ease of maths lets say 331,000 have died (as will be the case very soon)

331,000 / 331,000,000
=
331 / 331,000
=
1 / 1000.

It's a horrible truth Dixie, but it is the truth.
 
  • #168
I believe that may be the problem I am having with the math.

I believe the numerator and a denominator for your calculation is reversed??

For percentage of the population if should be the number of who died over the total, not reverse. And then times it 100.

For example, if 50 people out of 100 had a disease, it would be 50%

Do we all agree on that as a starting point?

. If you put the people that were infected over the people of the total.... If you switch it up and put the number of people in total which is 100 over the people that got it, that would be so much different. I do not agree with that mathematical calculation at all it to the percentage of people that are infected and or died

That calculation of 100 over 50 would be 200%. That is where I think I'm disagreeing with such.

Taking that number of 50 out of 100 it will be 50%. But if you reverse the numerator and denominator it would be 200% which as I think it is what you were doing? I disagree with that.

Sorry that I'm getting into this so much, but I want to make sure the information in these threads is correct.

I'm not agreeing with many people here who are switching out the numerator and denominator and then multiply it by 100. That's not the math I learned long ago. We'll agree to disagree I guess and Others May chime in to help understand in?

I'm still having a hard time understanding because I truly believe it is reverse as far as the numerator and the denominator and what some people are posting here. I may be totally incorrect, but I vehemently don't think I am. And need somebody to continue to explain it to me as I think many people here are mixing up the numerator and a denominator in their calculations

The way I see it, the US currently has almost 1 in 1,000 people dead from covid?

916 per million = 916/1,000,000 = .0009 = .9 in 1,000

Coronavirus Update (Live): 71,858,897 Cases and 1,608,231 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

With deaths rising rapidly, it will easily be 1 in 1,000 quite soon.
 
Last edited:
  • #169
DBM
 
  • #170
  • #171
  • #172
The way I see it, the US currently has almost 1 in 1,000 people dead from covid?

916 per million = 916/1,000,000 = .0009 = .9 in 1,000

Coronavirus Update (Live): 71,858,897 Cases and 1,608,231 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

With deaths rising rapidly, it will easily be 1 in 1,000 quite soon.

Thank you and @CoverMeCagney etc so much everyone for TOLERATING and gently correcting my ignorance as to math as I thought unbelievable.

You guys/gals are so good at working through to help my brain as to comprehension and disbelief, as I just cannot fathom the numbers.

Again, thanks to all that did above push back to educate my ignorance in math and the numbers.
 
Last edited:
  • #173
  • #174
Thank you so much everyone for TOLERATING my ignorance as to math as I thought unbelievable.

You guys/gals are so good at working through to help my brain as to comprehension and disbelief.

Ok phew. Glad we got there in the end!

1 in 1000 is pretty shocking, really makes it hit home :(
 
  • #175
I believe that may be the problem I am having with the math.

I believe the numerator and a denominator for your calculation is reversed??

For percentage of the population if should be the number of who died over the total, not reverse. And then times it 100.

For example, if 50 people out of 100 had a disease, it would be 50%

Do we all agree on that as a starting point?

. If you put the people that were infected over the people of the total.... If you switch it up and put the number of people in total which is 100 over the people that got it, that would be so much different. I do not agree with that mathematical calculation at all it to the percentage of people that are infected and or died

That calculation of 100 over 50 would be 200%. That is where I think I'm disagreeing with such.

Taking that number of 50 out of 100 it will be 50%. But if you reverse the numerator and denominator it would be 200% which as I think it is what you were doing? I disagree with that.

Sorry that I'm getting into this so much, but I want to make sure the information in these threads is correct.

I'm not agreeing with many people here who are switching out the numerator and denominator and then multiply it by 100. That's not the math I learned long ago. We'll agree to disagree I guess and Others May chime in to help understand in?

I'm still having a hard time understanding because I truly believe it is reverse as far as the numerator and the denominator and what some people are posting here. I may be totally incorrect, but I vehemently don't think I am. And need somebody to continue to explain it to me as I think many people here are mixing up the numerator and a denominator in their calculations
Not mixed up, because I'm not calculating percentage of death. Just calculating how many death per total population.

So, say we have 500,000 dead at the end of December.
328,000,000 population / 500,000 dead = 656

We will have 1 dead per 656 citizens. It gets scarier and scarier as more people die.
 
  • #176
That is sad to hear. He was 86.

By no means diminishing his passing, but it's sad that people seem to care and notice more when a famous 86 year old musician dies rather than when 86 yr old Joe Smith dies alone in a nursing home/hospital.

I recall months ago, someone well known came out and said it. If a famous entertainer/sports star were dying every single day of Covid-19, perhaps it would make people notice what the he** is going on.
 
  • #177
USA Today have done a lot of research and produced this very long, very good, in-depth article (a novella really) about the spread of the virus throughout the US. From what they have discovered, I would say that the virus established a firm foothold in the US - and in other countries - during the first 3 weeks of January.



In the earliest days of what would become a historic pandemic, the novel coronavirus had unfettered access into and throughout the United States.
Thousands of travelers came to San Francisco on a 14-hour direct flight from Wuhan, China — the origin of the virus — in just the first three weeks of January. (2,410 people)
The Chinese government shut down the flight on Jan. 23, eight days before President Donald Trump’s restrictions on travel by Chinese nationals went into effect.

Other international flights continued largely unabated for the first several months of the year. (300,943 flights)
Those flights carried millions of people, an untold number of them infected, into the country from January through April.

Meanwhile, domestic airlines ferried travelers all over the nation during the same time period. (2,334,679 flights)
The movement helped seed the virus among an unsuspecting public, unaware that life as they knew it was about to be upended.

But in an early vacuum of leadership at almost every government level, with the message from the White House that the virus was not anything to worry about, Americans unwittingly spread the lethal virus to loved ones and strangers alike.

“We have it totally under control,” Trump had said the day before when asked about the single known case in the United States. “It’s one person, coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

But none of the early epidemiological research Lee was picking up from China, where the virus had killed thousands and brought life to a standstill, suggested that assessment was correct.

Lee runs a research lab at Mount Sinai’s medical school in New York City.
Lee was one of thousands of scientists throughout the world who had since December been piecing together small studies from doctors in other countries to understand the features of the virus that had emerged in Wuhan, with their clues as to how it could be stopped.

In early January, scientists from China and Australia released an initial genome sequence of the virus. It closely resembled SARS, the virus that much of the world barely dodged two decades earlier.

The U.S. squandered its early advantage. Roughly one year after the virus first came into existence, the country has suffered a loss of life far worse than any other.

The novel coronavirus didn’t start in the United States, but we have made it our own.

AMERICAN VIRUS It may not have started here, but the novel coronavirus became a US tragedy

Reading that article makes me want to cry--it didnt have to be this way!!!!
there are way too many people that think this virus cannot be controlled-
they are so wrong--the lack of leadership and ignoring the science have resulted
in this travesty
 
  • #178
We have approximately a 0.1% death rate per known case. If we put suspected cases in, then it's certainly 1 in 1000.

By end of January, we'll be saying things like 1 in 600 or 1 in 700.

There's every reason for a person's brain to struggle with this. Since I don't expect compliance with vaccines or masks from about half the US population...it will go higher. At some point, though, the sheer number of already-infected (in some places, it's already 30% or even 50%!!) will slow the roll of COVID, along with the vaccine.
 
  • #179
L.A. County in ‘uncharted territory’ as COVID-19 cases explode to single-day record with more than 13,000 | KTLA
...
The number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in L.A. County has doubled since Thanksgiving and quadrupled in the last month, when there were 942 coronavirus-infected patients in area hospitals.

“We’re in uncharted territory at this point,” Ferrer said. “We’re seeing daily numbers of cases and hospitalizations that we’ve not experienced and, frankly, did not anticipate. Our intensive care unit bed capacity continues to drop. We’re on a very dangerous track.”
...
As of Friday, Southern California’s intensive care bed capacity was at 6.2%.

At this point, Ferrer said, “it’s not a question of if we’ll see a large increase of hospitalizations and deaths,” but a question of how worse the numbers will get.
...
“We cannot undo what’s already been done, and collectively, we’re going to all pay a very high price for the actions we were taking in the past,” she said.
...
“I think the issue right now is this is what we would call the Thanksgiving surge … now we have a surge on top of a surge,” she said. “And it’s really hard for us to calculate exactly what we’re going to see over the next week or two.”
...
---------------------------------
A monster sized Christmas surge is next. I don't think our County officials are doing enough. I believe we need to go into STRICT lockdown to save innocent lives. But I think they have all but given up. IMO:(:mad:
 
  • #180
At that time, the population of the United States was 103.2 million. IF IF I have my math right... that was 0.655% of the US population. 675,000/103,200,000.

328 million was the latest as to population of US in 2019 per google.

Math on back of envelope... 300,000 deaths so far/328,000,000 is 0.0915% if if if my envelope is correct.

Another back of envelope is that 1918 overall/so far was 7 times greater over that 1 1/2 period in the early 1900's.

Egads.
Yes, we would need to surpass over 2.1 million deaths to exceed the deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic. I don’t think it will be that bad, but we still have a long while to go, so it’s unfortunately still possible.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
139
Guests online
2,602
Total visitors
2,741

Forum statistics

Threads
633,191
Messages
18,637,741
Members
243,442
Latest member
Jsandy210
Back
Top