Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #89

[nightowl1975]

A monster sized Christmas surge is next. I don't think our County officials are doing enough. I believe we need to go into STRICT lockdown to save innocent lives. But I think they have all but given up. IMO

IMO, from watching covid upfront and in person as a healthcare worker all this time, it would take a solid 6-8 weeks to see ANY relief from a hard core lockdown in any major city if implemented today. The reality is, whoever is already infected, well, the horse is out of the barn. Those people will invariably go on to infect others, whether it’s family members while in strict lock down or co-workers because they work in essential jobs, or the general public while out getting essential supplies. Even in a strict lock down, there are a lot of people out for various reasons.

By the time enough people in the US are willing to go back to a lock down, it’s going to be far too late for it to really help.

Our best hope at this point is two-fold: one, that enough people will voluntarily isolate themselves over the next 2-3 months without someone from their local government telling them to do so, and two, we roll out vaccines and finally begin seeing some positive impact from those in 3-4+ months.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 1,924 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 255,009 confirmed cases of which 187,463 are recovering (+4,250) 15 more were reported to have passed for a total of 3,212. There were 125 hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 820 (-13). According to KWWL, there are 64,334 active positive cases with a 24 hr. posivity rate of 36.4%.
Dec. 12: Iowa reports 1,924 new cases, 15 more deaths

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 1,924 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 255,009 confirmed cases of which 187,463 are recovering (+4,250) 15 more were reported to have passed for a total of 3,212. There were 125 hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 820 (-13). According to KWWL, there are 64,334 active positive cases with a 24 hr. posivity rate of 36.4%.
Dec. 12: Iowa reports 1,924 new cases, 15 more deaths

 

[weepingangel]

Amid surging COVID-19 cases, Boston urges everyone to avoid holiday parties more at link


While discouraging holiday gatherings, the city issued these suggestions to make any gatherings safer:

• "Keep it small and limit the number of guests. In Boston, indoor gatherings at private residences should be 10 people or less.
• Wash your hands often, especially before eating, drinking or handling food.
• Ask guests to wear a mask unless eating and drinking, and stay six feet apart at all times. Wearing a face mask or cloth face covering is required by State order in all public places, whether indoors or outdoors.
• When eating or drinking, have a safe place to store your mask.
• Avoid direct contact - that means hugs and handshakes - with anyone not from your household.
• Host outdoor rather than indoor gatherings, if possible. In Boston, outdoor gatherings at private residences should be 25 people or less. Remember even when outside, people are still required by State order to wear masks when not eating or drinking.
• Avoid holding gatherings in crowded, poorly ventilated spaces with persons who are not in your household.
• Increase ventilation by opening windows and doors to the fullest extent (if it is safe based on the weather). Place central air and heating on continuous circulation.
• Avoid singing or shouting, especially indoors. Keep music levels down so people don't have to shout or speak loudly to be heard.
• If hosting an event, provide extra masks, hand sanitizer and wipes to clean surfaces. Stock bathrooms with plenty of hand soap and single-use towels.
• Regularly clean and disinfect frequently-touched surfaces and any shared items between use.
• Plan ahead. Ask guests to avoid contact with people outside of their own households for 14 days before the gathering.
• Do not share food, drink, or any utensils.
• Encourage guests to bring food and drinks for themselves and for members of their own household.
• Avoid potluck-style or buffet gatherings.
• If sharing food, have one person (wearing a face mask and gloves) serve food and use single-use options, like salad dressing and condiment packets, and disposable items like food containers, plates, and utensils.
• Ask guests to avoid going in and out of areas where food is being prepared and handled, like the kitchen.
• Ask everyone to wash their hands with soap and water before and after handling or eating food.
• Offer no-touch trash cans for guests to easily throw away food items.
• Wash dishes in the dishwasher or with hot soapy water immediately following the gathering.
• Change and launder linen items immediately following the event (seating covers, tablecloths, cloth napkins, etc.)
• Ask everyone to wash their hands with soap and water before and after handling or eating food."

 

[SouthAussie]

Within hours, FedEx and United Parcel Service will begin shipping 2.9 million doses of the vaccine from Pfizer plants to hospitals, clinics, and other distribution points across the country.

The two shipping giants have decided to divide and conquer.

“FedEx and UPS have split the country into two,” said Wes Wheeler, president of UPS Global Healthcare. “We know exactly what states we have, and they know what states they have.”

UPS has also spent months building “freezer farms,” consisting of portable freezer units capable of subarctic storage, near strategic air hubs in the U.S. and Europe.

CDC director Robert Redfield told a Senate panel in September that, “it’s going to take somewhere between $5.5 [billion] to $6 billion to distribute this vaccine. It’s as urgent as getting these manufacturing facilities up.”

State health officials have asked for even more than that. They are requesting at least $8.4 billion for Covid-19 vaccination distribution.

Distribution comes as state and local governments are more strapped for cash than ever, amid increased expenses due to the pandemic and lost tax revenue.

Pfizer’s Covid vaccine ships within hours. Here's how the U.S. plans to get it to everyone

 

[CrimeAway]

I'm getting a case fatality rate of 1.85 % for the USA using the data from Worldometers (305,000 ÷ 16,500,000 then *100)

United States Coronavirus: 16,507,218 Cases and 304,775 Deaths - Worldometer

Assuming that only 1/4 of cases get tested, that would give us a possible CFR of 0.5 %. Seasonal influenza has a CFR of 0.1%

 

[10ofRods]

At that time, the population of the United States was 103.2 million. IF IF I have my math right... that was 0.655% of the US population. 675,000/103,200,000.

328 million was the latest as to population of US in 2019 per google.

Math on back of envelope... 300,000 deaths so far/328,000,000 is 0.0915% if if if my envelope is correct.

Another back of envelope is that 1918 overall/so far was 7 times greater over that 1 1/2 period in the early 1900's.

Egads.

You're right. 0.09% rounded off is 0.1 (1 in 1000). That's almost where we are. At 3000 deaths per day, we'll be to 0.1% soon.

We're at about 305,000 deaths today and there are states that don't report fully on weekends. So we've crept up just a bit more.

Since it's my perception (and google analytics seems to agree): we aren't going to see death rates going down very quickly. Best case scenario is 3000 deaths per day until mid-January, with hopefully some places seeing a drop merely because so many vulnerable people have died and so many others will have at least 6 months of immunity. We can certainly hope for that.

For New Jersey (as an example), it's 1 in 500 (0.2%) who are dead. For North Dakota, it's about 1 in 750. A big difference, though, is that New Jersey had so many early on, whereas North Dakota has had a much shorter time dealing with the virus. Some predict that ND will end up in worse shape than NJ. Meanwhile, NJ is not exactly seeing their numbers drop in this cycle:

Department of Health | Communicable Disease Service | New Jersey COVID-19 Dashboard

But even in New Jersey, only about 5% of the population have had COVID. Long way to go.

 

[10ofRods]

Within hours, FedEx and United Parcel Service will begin shipping 2.9 million doses of the vaccine from Pfizer plants to hospitals, clinics, and other distribution points across the country.

The two shipping giants have decided to divide and conquer.

“FedEx and UPS have split the country into two,” said Wes Wheeler, president of UPS Global Healthcare. “We know exactly what states we have, and they know what states they have.”

UPS has also spent months building “freezer farms,” consisting of portable freezer units capable of subarctic storage, near strategic air hubs in the U.S. and Europe.

CDC director Robert Redfield told a Senate panel in September that, “it’s going to take somewhere between $5.5 [billion] to $6 billion to distribute this vaccine. It’s as urgent as getting these manufacturing facilities up.”

State health officials have asked for even more than that. They are requesting at least $8.4 billion for Covid-19 vaccination distribution.

Distribution comes as state and local governments are more strapped for cash than ever, amid increased expenses due to the pandemic and lost tax revenue.

Pfizer’s Covid vaccine ships within hours. Here's how the U.S. plans to get it to everyone

FedEx, where I live, is a gig economy operation, whereas we always see the same UPS (full time guy, he wears a mask).

I hope FedEx has this worked out as well as UPS appears to have worked it out, per that article.

 

[mickey2942]

Charley Pride, Pioneering Black Country Singer, Dead at 86

Covid gets another one.

 

[GRT]

My 11 year old nephew was just diagnosed with the infection. His mother took him in for what she thought was another sinus infection (he does have one) but he was also running a fever so they tested him and he's positive for covid. For some reason, because he tested positive, they didn't give him antibiotics for the sinus infection. That seems odd. Is there some sort of contraindication for taking antibiotics when you're positive for covid?

The whole family now must quarantine.

 

[GRT]

Within hours, FedEx and United Parcel Service will begin shipping 2.9 million doses of the vaccine from Pfizer plants to hospitals, clinics, and other distribution points across the country.

The two shipping giants have decided to divide and conquer.

“FedEx and UPS have split the country into two,” said Wes Wheeler, president of UPS Global Healthcare. “We know exactly what states we have, and they know what states they have.”

UPS has also spent months building “freezer farms,” consisting of portable freezer units capable of subarctic storage, near strategic air hubs in the U.S. and Europe.

CDC director Robert Redfield told a Senate panel in September that, “it’s going to take somewhere between $5.5 [billion] to $6 billion to distribute this vaccine. It’s as urgent as getting these manufacturing facilities up.”

State health officials have asked for even more than that. They are requesting at least $8.4 billion for Covid-19 vaccination distribution.

Distribution comes as state and local governments are more strapped for cash than ever, amid increased expenses due to the pandemic and lost tax revenue.

Pfizer’s Covid vaccine ships within hours. Here's how the U.S. plans to get it to everyone

I wonder what will happen to the vaccines when they reach their destinations? It seems unlikely that health centers, Walgreens, etc., will have that type of subarctic storage capability.

 

[SouthAussie]

I wonder what will happen to the vaccines when they reach their destinations? It seems unlikely that health centers, Walgreens, etc., will have that type of subarctic storage capability.

I imagine they will stay in their suitcases until used. I also recall reading that the vaccine will stay good for (only) 24 hours in the fridge. Vaccinations will have to be streamlined and prompt.


If US drug giant Pfizer gets its vaccine approved ...... doses will be sent in special suitcase-sized containers cooled at sub-zero temperatures of -70C. (Using dry ice, which will have to be topped up - which we have read before.)

Each temperature-controlled container will be embedded with GPS trackers, for security, and will be capable of holding several thousand doses of the prized vaccine.

Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine needs storage colder than Mars

 

[10ofRods]

I'm getting a case fatality rate of 1.85 % for the USA using the data from Worldometers (305,000 ÷ 16,500,000 then *100)

United States Coronavirus: 16,507,218 Cases and 304,775 Deaths - Worldometer

Assuming that only 1/4 of cases get tested, that would give us a possible CFR of 0.5 %. Seasonal influenza has a CFR of 0.1%

It's actually higher, since you included all cases (including all unresolved cases). Some of the people who have just been diagnosed with COVID will die. After 10 months of data collection, it's a 3% case mortality rate (it was higher than that at the beginning). It is gradually coming down, but it seems stuck at 3% (just as it says at the top of the Worldometers page) for a while.

IOW, 6.6 million of the total number are still alive, but have COVID. Fewer and fewer of them can even get into the ICU - which may bump the death toll back up a little. It's projected, though, that 3% of those people will die (198,000 more deaths in the next couple of months from that pool). Of course, more people are getting it all the time.

Of the resolved cases, 3% who had COVID died and there's no reason to think it's going to drop by much any time soon.

Case fatality rate is decided by who lives and survives plus who died from Covid. If the people are in limbo (neither recovered or dead), we can't count them yet.

Some people are predicting it's going to go up to 3.5%, due to lack of ICU beds (as of today, California is 95% full for ICU beds, nearly as full for other beds, and patients are getting moved all around. It will take 3-4 hours to be admitted at the ER, even if high fever and no family is allowed to accompany the person into the hospital.

It's horrible. Helicopters are booked for the next 24 hours as they try to get people to places with ICU beds and the right drugs on hand.

 

[dmac55]

I wonder what will happen to the vaccines when they reach their destinations? It seems unlikely that health centers, Walgreens, etc., will have that type of subarctic storage capability.

These are two examples-
One about Walgreen's and one about University of Arizona
(They're both lengthy so I won't try to give a snippet because it all seems important)

Cracking the cold case | Walgreens Newsroom
Cracking the cold case | Walgreens Newsroom

Arizona gearing up for COVID-19 vaccination campaign
Arizona gearing up for COVID-19 vaccination campaign

 

[mickey2942]

My 11 year old nephew was just diagnosed with the infection. His mother took him in for what she thought was another sinus infection (he does have one) but he was also running a fever so they tested him and he's positive for covid. For some reason, because he tested positive, they didn't give him antibiotics for the sinus infection. That seems odd. Is there some sort of contraindication for taking antibiotics when you're positive for covid?

The whole family now must quarantine.

This is not unlike the treatment given to my daughter. She had a terrible cough, nothing was offered to her at all.

I have no doubt that your sister's family will all end up being positive soon. No one is going to isolate their 11 year old child.

 

[MimosaMornings]

My 11 year old nephew was just diagnosed with the infection. His mother took him in for what she thought was another sinus infection (he does have one) but he was also running a fever so they tested him and he's positive for covid. For some reason, because he tested positive, they didn't give him antibiotics for the sinus infection. That seems odd. Is there some sort of contraindication for taking antibiotics when you're positive for covid?

The whole family now must quarantine.

Sorry to hear your nephew is sick. Every one that I know that has had Covid - nothing was prescribed. One was prescribed prednisone initially when they thought he had bronchitis. Other wise it was Tylenol and oximeter.

 

[10ofRods]

I imagine they will stay in their suitcases until used. I also recall reading that the vaccine will stay good for (only) 24 hours in the fridge. Vaccinations will have to be streamlined and prompt.


If US drug giant Pfizer gets its vaccine approved ...... doses will be sent in special suitcase-sized containers cooled at sub-zero temperatures of -70C. (Using dry ice, which will have to be topped up - which we have read before.)

Each temperature-controlled container will be embedded with GPS trackers, for security, and will be capable of holding several thousand doses of the prized vaccine.

Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine needs storage colder than Mars

I think it was Pfizer who said, yesterday, they had some breakthrough in the storage thing.

I think they said it can stay in the refrigerator for 5 days. It needs to be used promptly when gotten out of the fridge (10 minutes? can't recall)

It's hard to comprehend the logistics of this and I'm sure mistakes will get made. Everyone is exhausted. Well trained nursing staff should be in charge - but they are also needed on the floor. Pharmacy techs will surely be involved here in California.

 

[dmac55]

On my local Phoenix area news, they have been reporting that vaccination sites have been doing practice runs

 

[LadyL]

Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill

 

[SouthAussie]

Here is a little about the logistics of the vaccine delivery .......


On Sunday morning, FedEx and UPS trucks will start rolling to deliver to nearly 150 distribution centres on Monday.

A further 425 sites will get delivery on Tuesday, and then 66 more on Wednesday.

"Health authorities" will decide who gets the vaccine first.

MaineHealth, a network of 12 hospitals based in Portland, plans to provide an expected first delivery of nearly 2,000 vaccines to doctors, nurses and others facing risk as they treat COVID-19 patients.

Distribution sites are mainly large hospitals and other facilities able to meet the ultra-cold storage requirements.

Within three weeks, vaccines should be delivered to all vaccination sites identified by states, such as local pharmacies.

Pharmacists practised making separate doses of a training vaccine and ensuring the freezer was kept at temperatures colder than the Antarctic.

Local health officials were struggling to ensure the vaccine is distributed fairly and to those most in need.

The FDA's instructions tell providers not to give it to those with a known history of severe allergic reactions to any of its ingredients.

US on eve of 'D-Day' vaccine rollout as weary nation looks to turn tide against COVID