Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #89

[10ofRods]

My interpretation (which may be wrong) is a mutation is whenever the virus changes. In a single person the virus may mutate several times. Strains are caused by mutations and are generally considered “strains” when the mutated version starts spreading throughout the population. I think the terms may technically be interchangeable but common language use, all strains are caused by a mutation but not all mutations result in a strain.

Where are you getting the data about so many mutations happening in a single person? This virus has been described as "slow mutating" compared to, say, the flu - or measles.

You are correct that even one point mutation (a change in one letter in the RNA code of the virus) creates a new strain. I posted a picture of the late April phylogeny (family tree of COVID). Due to redundancy in the coding system, most mutations have no effect on the virus's abilities to reproduce or stay stable outside of humans.

Strains spread more rapidly if they have some advantage and the new strain (that is now the dominant strain on the whole planet) is not the strain that first appeared in Wuhan. It may have occurred in southern France or Switzerland or northern Italy, it's not clear yet. Its first known advantage is related to viral load (there are more of the virions in the upper respiratory tract).

IOW, there was a clinical correlation observed (of all the many mutations in COVID, this particular strain actually was causing observable differences in the course of the disease).

If every single person had mutations in COVID inside their own bodies, there would be 77,000,000 different strains of COVID - but there are far fewer than that. If everyone had several (let's say 10) mutations in COVID while they were hosting it, there would be 770,000,000 strains of COVID.

By July, there were about 50 strains (not thousands or millions). I don't know how many there are today and the Scottish geneticists has not yet published any data about the actual point at which the new UK strain mutated. At least, I haven't found it yet, I'll keep looking of course.

You can hover over the little circles (each represents a new strain, with the cumulative mutation locations indicated) here:

auspice

What's not represented is any "UK mutation" except for a couple that, apparently, are closely related to strains from New Zealand (which is fascinating and interesting). The newer South African form (also claimed, without any empirical evidence so far, to be "more transmissible") has a longer history in S.A., but came from Denmark.

So we await publication (from Scotland, from the researcher making this claim about transmissibility) of what the actual mutation is, so we can see from which part of the tree it descended. IOW, this researcher in Scotland (who claims the mutation came from England) must show proof by giving the scientific community the actual mutation points, and the strain (in England) from which it descended. The newest English mutations listed in the nextstrain originally came from a strain in Denmark (so it's of interest that the Scottish researcher has also found the same strain in Denmark, at least that's what MSM says he says).

The fact that mutations occur around the same time as big upticks in COVID can be related to human behavior, and now, we await actual lab studies to see if this single point mutation (in England or Denmark) has led to something more transmissible.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

COVID-19: New strain 'seeded right across Wales', says health minister

The new strain of coronavirus in parts of England is also behind a rise in cases in Wales, the country's health minister has told Sky News.

Vaughan Gething says the new variant was "seeded right across Wales" and "could not be ignored".

 

[ilovewings]

Birx travels, family visits highlight pandemic safety perils
More at link
WASHINGTON (AP) — As COVID-19 cases skyrocketed before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus response, warned Americans to “be vigilant” and limit celebrations to “your immediate household.”

For many Americans that guidance has been difficult to abide, including for Birx herself.

The day after Thanksgiving, she traveled to one of her vacation properties on Fenwick Island in Delaware. She was accompanied by three generations of her family from two households. Birx, her husband Paige Reffe, a daughter, son-in-law and two young grandchildren were present.

Dont do as I do-- do as I say? Seriously?

 

[Colorado303]

I agree that they need to strengthen their screening policy-- though a lot of businesses
take temperature (like hospitals and doctor's offices), lots of people
with the virus dont have increased temps-- nevertheless it is better than nothing-
rapid testing would be better, but costly and time consuming-- clearly, taking
the word of passengers is not the best way to insure a passenger doesnt have
covid-- and think about the asymptomatic people boarding a plane!

Asking people if they have COVID or COVID symptoms is only going to screen out people too stupid/ignorant to know they shouldn’t be flying (and perhaps a spineless individual or two who wanted to stay home but were “forced” to travel by a selfish family member or boss).

One of the passengers said they passed his seat when boarding and noticed the man had respiratory symptoms. (They made eye contact with his wife and she quickly looked down.). They also said they believe he died during or shortly after takeoff.

Lies or not, temp taken or not, on-site rapid testing or not— it’s impossible to imagine this man wasn’t displaying observable symptoms at the time of security screening and boarding. In that case, someone could and should have stopped him from getting on that plane. I believe all major airlines reserve the right to deny boarding to someone who appears to be sick. Maybe TSA/United employees didn’t didn’t “drop the ball” but they sure could have picked it up to prevent this mess.

The ball most certainly WAS dropped by the man himself and in particular his wife. He may have been feeling too ill to think properly, but his wife certainly could. Shock and instinct to save his life might explain why she didn’t disclose his COVID symptoms to rescuers on the flight. But there’s NO excuse for her letting him get on the plane in the first place. NONE. If she didn’t have the power to stop him herself she certainly could have told employees he shouldn’t be flying.

Don’t know her particular mix of stupidity/ignorance/selfishness but there are too many more out there like her. If the US aggressively prosecuted offenders like some countries are, these human pathogens might think twice.

 

[Colorado303]

Does she not know how to order online?
I basically cancelled Christmas this year, going to drink and probably post drunk ramblings on here.
JMO

If you’d prefer an anonymous Christmas Zoom meeting as a forum for your drunken ramblings let me know.

 

[Satchie]

COVID-19: New strain 'seeded right across Wales', says health minister

The new strain of coronavirus in parts of England is also behind a rise in cases in Wales, the country's health minister has told Sky News.

Vaughan Gething says the new variant was "seeded right across Wales" and "could not be ignored".

Thanks for the link.

Apart from what the politician said, the public health official for Wales is quoted in the article:

"despite a small sample size, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) study showed that the new variant could be responsible for up to 60% of new infections in Wales.

Dr Atherton added: "Emerging public health advice suggests that the new variant is at least contributing to, and possibly driving, this growth rate.

"Given the risk of further high growth continuing, to contain the harm of the pandemic and prevent already strained NHS resources from being overwhelmed, Level 4 measures will need to be brought forward as soon as possible."

I think the scientists are properly qualifying that they are not sure yet about this variant.

But, public health officials everywhere all agree, that when cases are rapidly rising and hospitals are being overwhelmed, the best response is to implement as much containment as possible, getting people to stay home, not travel not shop, etc. But, that is a government decision that isn't purely based on science. However, when things get to a crisis, the government may be forced to go back on promises they previously made and make a very unpopular decisison. And sometimes they will spin the issue a bit in communicating with the public about why they have changed their mind.

JMO

 

[Skigh]

DBM

 

[ilovewings]

Asking people if they have COVID or COVID symptoms is only going to screen out people too stupid/ignorant to know they shouldn’t be flying (and perhaps a spineless individual or two who wanted to stay home but were “forced” to travel by a selfish family member or boss).

One of the passengers said they passed his seat when boarding and noticed the man had respiratory symptoms. (They made eye contact with his wife and she quickly looked down.). They also said they believe he died during or shortly after takeoff.

Lies or not, temp taken or not, on-site rapid testing or not— it’s impossible to imagine this man wasn’t displaying observable symptoms at the time of security screening and boarding. In that case, someone could and should have stopped him from getting on that plane. I believe all major airlines reserve the right to deny boarding to someone who appears to be sick. Maybe TSA/United employees didn’t didn’t “drop the ball” but they sure could have picked it up to prevent this mess.

The ball most certainly WAS dropped by the man himself and in particular his wife. He may have been feeling too ill to think properly, but his wife certainly could. Shock and instinct to save his life might explain why she didn’t disclose his COVID symptoms to rescuers on the flight. But there’s NO excuse for her letting him get on the plane in the first place. NONE. If she didn’t have the power to stop him herself she certainly could have told employees he shouldn’t be flying.

Don’t know her particular mix of stupidity/ignorance/selfishness but there are too many more out there like her. If the US aggressively prosecuted offenders like some countries are, these human pathogens might think twice.

Wish there was a love icon for your insightful, thoughtful, and intelligent post.

 

[Colorado303]

Where are you getting the data about so many mutations happening in a single person? This virus has been described as "slow mutating" compared to, say, the flu - or measles.

You are correct that even one point mutation (a change in one letter in the RNA code of the virus) creates a new strain. I posted a picture of the late April phylogeny (family tree of COVID). Due to redundancy in the coding system, most mutations have no effect on the virus's abilities to reproduce or stay stable outside of humans.

Strains spread more rapidly if they have some advantage and the new strain (that is now the dominant strain on the whole planet) is not the strain that first appeared in Wuhan. It may have occurred in southern France or Switzerland or northern Italy, it's not clear yet. Its first known advantage is related to viral load (there are more of the virions in the upper respiratory tract).

IOW, there was a clinical correlation observed (of all the many mutations in COVID, this particular strain actually was causing observable differences in the course of the disease).

If every single person had mutations in COVID inside their own bodies, there would be 77,000,000 different strains of COVID - but there are far fewer than that. If everyone had several (let's say 10) mutations in COVID while they were hosting it, there would be 770,000,000 strains of COVID.

By July, there were about 50 strains (not thousands or millions). I don't know how many there are today and the Scottish geneticists has not yet published any data about the actual point at which the new UK strain mutated. At least, I haven't found it yet, I'll keep looking of course.

You can hover over the little circles (each represents a new strain, with the cumulative mutation locations indicated) here:

auspice

What's not represented is any "UK mutation" except for a couple that, apparently, are closely related to strains from New Zealand (which is fascinating and interesting). The newer South African form (also claimed, without any empirical evidence so far, to be "more transmissible") has a longer history in S.A., but came from Denmark.

So we await publication (from Scotland, from the researcher making this claim about transmissibility) of what the actual mutation is, so we can see from which part of the tree it descended. IOW, this researcher in Scotland (who claims the mutation came from England) must show proof by giving the scientific community the actual mutation points, and the strain (in England) from which it descended. The newest English mutations listed in the nextstrain originally came from a strain in Denmark (so it's of interest that the Scottish researcher has also found the same strain in Denmark, at least that's what MSM says he says).

The fact that mutations occur around the same time as big upticks in COVID can be related to human behavior, and now, we await actual lab studies to see if this single point mutation (in England or Denmark) has led to something more transmissible.

BBM

My post was about definitions in general, not specifically the COVID virus. Like you, I remember a quote saying the COVID virus isn’t mutating nearly much as other viruses, which often mutate dozens of times while replicating in a single person. However IIRC it also said COVID mutations aren’t “rare” in an absolute sense. I’ll try and find it.

 

[Colorado303]

Where are you getting the data about so many mutations happening in a single person? This virus has been described as "slow mutating" compared to, say, the flu - or measles.

You are correct that even one point mutation (a change in one letter in the RNA code of the virus) creates a new strain. I posted a picture of the late April phylogeny (family tree of COVID). Due to redundancy in the coding system, most mutations have no effect on the virus's abilities to reproduce or stay stable outside of humans.

Strains spread more rapidly if they have some advantage and the new strain (that is now the dominant strain on the whole planet) is not the strain that first appeared in Wuhan. It may have occurred in southern France or Switzerland or northern Italy, it's not clear yet. Its first known advantage is related to viral load (there are more of the virions in the upper respiratory tract).

IOW, there was a clinical correlation observed (of all the many mutations in COVID, this particular strain actually was causing observable differences in the course of the disease).

If every single person had mutations in COVID inside their own bodies, there would be 77,000,000 different strains of COVID - but there are far fewer than that. If everyone had several (let's say 10) mutations in COVID while they were hosting it, there would be 770,000,000 strains of COVID.

By July, there were about 50 strains (not thousands or millions). I don't know how many there are today and the Scottish geneticists has not yet published any data about the actual point at which the new UK strain mutated. At least, I haven't found it yet, I'll keep looking of course.

You can hover over the little circles (each represents a new strain, with the cumulative mutation locations indicated) here:

auspice

What's not represented is any "UK mutation" except for a couple that, apparently, are closely related to strains from New Zealand (which is fascinating and interesting). The newer South African form (also claimed, without any empirical evidence so far, to be "more transmissible") has a longer history in S.A., but came from Denmark.

So we await publication (from Scotland, from the researcher making this claim about transmissibility) of what the actual mutation is, so we can see from which part of the tree it descended. IOW, this researcher in Scotland (who claims the mutation came from England) must show proof by giving the scientific community the actual mutation points, and the strain (in England) from which it descended. The newest English mutations listed in the nextstrain originally came from a strain in Denmark (so it's of interest that the Scottish researcher has also found the same strain in Denmark, at least that's what MSM says he says).

The fact that mutations occur around the same time as big upticks in COVID can be related to human behavior, and now, we await actual lab studies to see if this single point mutation (in England or Denmark) has led to something more transmissible.

As I understand it, the majority of mutations that happen to a virus as it replicates inside a host aren’t what’s transmitted to someone catching the virus from them. Unless there’s also a biological advantage the mutated version has that makes it outpace the other non-mutated replications in the hosts body, statistically the host is more likely to transmit the original version (so we wouldn’t have 77,000,000 strains out there since most new mutations will remain limited to their original host). Only those mutations that do make it beyond the original host will create what’s commonly called a “strain”.

I don’t have a link. Just what I remember from microbiology and genetics classes (one each) in college.

 

[10ofRods]

BBM

My post was about definitions in general, not specifically the COVID virus. Like you, I remember a quote saying the COVID virus isn’t mutating nearly much as other viruses, which often mutate dozens of times while replicating in a single person. However IIRC it also said COVID mutations aren’t “rare” in an absolute sense. I’ll try and find it.

You're right - not rare at all. Almost every day there's another one. That link I posted shows the bewildering array of mutations reported for COVID. I'll post it again, you've probably seen it - you can use the slider to control for dates:

auspice

There was a recent mutation in Minnesota, for example. Too soon to know its prevalence. Almost every mutation on that chart is a descendent of the "more transmissible" variant (D614G - it's way down at the lower left hand corner - discovered in March, determined to be "more transmissible" (by observable mechanisms) in April - but now known to have occurred in February.

If the UK variant (which is a D614G virus descendant) is even more transmissible than the original, then that's newsworthy. If, OTOH, it's just another D614G variant, that's just not big news - it's been around for a while. The UK mutation does appear to be on the chart...as a D614G descendant. But it's not the first time UK has experienced contact with a D614G family member. Upwards of 90% of COVID on the planet is in the same "more transmissible" family.

 

[Colorado303]

You're right - not rare at all. Almost every day there's another one. That link I posted shows the bewildering array of mutations reported for COVID. I'll post it again, you've probably seen it - you can use the slider to control for dates:

auspice

There was a recent mutation in Minnesota, for example. Too soon to know its prevalence. Almost every mutation on that chart is a descendent of the "more transmissible" variant (D614G - it's way down at the lower left hand corner - discovered in March, determined to be "more transmissible" (by observable mechanisms) in April - but now known to have occurred in February.

If the UK variant (which is a D614G virus descendant) is even more transmissible than the original, then that's newsworthy. If, OTOH, it's just another D614G variant, that's just not big news - it's been around for a while. The UK mutation does appear to be on the chart...as a D614G descendant. But it's not the first time UK has experienced contact with a D614G family member. Upwards of 90% of COVID on the planet is in the same "more transmissible" family.

That’s interesting! Are there also reports examining the morbidity of the various strains? As I learn more about what’s gone on at my Mom’s memory care center I’m even more convinced their outbreak is a milder strain. Of 12 residents who tested positive, all elderly and many with significant medical conditions, only 3 needed to be hospitalized. And all three appear to be well on their way to recovery.

Almost half of the remaining positive residents are asymptomatic. For the rest, symptoms appear to be limited to extreme exhaustion, loss of taste/smell, headache and diarrhea. No significant cough or difficulty breathing. Temperatures and O2 sat are remaining normal.

ETA: The transmission seems to be happening more slowly too. A nurse there also works at another LTC facility and said COvID swept through there quickly, with many people very sick and quite a few dying. Within about a month, it was gone. At my Mom’s facility their first positive test came back 3 months ago. They’re testing everyone 2x/week and only one or two more residents test positive in those weeks that have positive tests.

 

[mickey2942]

Asking people if they have COVID or COVID symptoms is only going to screen out people too stupid/ignorant to know they shouldn’t be flying (and perhaps a spineless individual or two who wanted to stay home but were “forced” to travel by a selfish family member or boss).

One of the passengers said they passed his seat when boarding and noticed the man had respiratory symptoms. (They made eye contact with his wife and she quickly looked down.). They also said they believe he died during or shortly after takeoff.

Lies or not, temp taken or not, on-site rapid testing or not— it’s impossible to imagine this man wasn’t displaying observable symptoms at the time of security screening and boarding. In that case, someone could and should have stopped him from getting on that plane. I believe all major airlines reserve the right to deny boarding to someone who appears to be sick. Maybe TSA/United employees didn’t didn’t “drop the ball” but they sure could have picked it up to prevent this mess.

The ball most certainly WAS dropped by the man himself and in particular his wife. He may have been feeling too ill to think properly, but his wife certainly could. Shock and instinct to save his life might explain why she didn’t disclose his COVID symptoms to rescuers on the flight. But there’s NO excuse for her letting him get on the plane in the first place. NONE. If she didn’t have the power to stop him herself she certainly could have told employees he shouldn’t be flying.

Don’t know her particular mix of stupidity/ignorance/selfishness but there are too many more out there like her. If the US aggressively prosecuted offenders like some countries are, these human pathogens might think twice.

The problem is that half of the population in the United States, literally rolls their eyes when you ask if they have "symptoms", and their attitude about wearing a mask is evident. Now, this also includes supervisors.

So, let's say, that a TSA agent noticed this man, for example, sweating profusely, coughing, and had gone to a supervisor to mention this...a supervisor who routinely rolls his eyes whenever anyone says "Covid". Already, we know that it would not have been received well...

Or, if a gate agent had noticed the same symptoms, and actually said, "No, this person seems sick and should not travel.". How much support do you think the airline would have given this person for doing their job? None.

Welcome to working in the United States. We tell people to "Speak up, say something". And when they do...invariably the person who identifies a problem, is usually "the problem".

 

[SoCalDavidS]

A cancer patient needed critical care. Because of the COVID-19 surge, she died without it

Bill isn't angry at the the hospital, whom he described “to a person [as] sympathetic, compassionate and very kind to us. … They did all they could.” Instead, Billy lays Kim’s ordeal squarely on “maskholes.” “We’re never going to know if she could’ve been saved,” he said

Of maskholes, Billy said: “They’re intelligent people. They’re not stupid. But I call them fake patriots. They’ll say, ‘I’ll die for my country against tyranny, but I won’t wear a mask for my fellow human being.’ Well, you don’t have a country without caring for others.”

Column: A cancer patient needed critical care. Because of the COVID-19 surge, she died without it

 

[Satchie]

It's really sadly driven home how self absorbed most people are. Everyone is concerned with themselves and their personal needs to the exclusion of others. I mean we are human so on some level it's not a surprise.

I guess what surprises me most about it is just how openly selfish and self absorbed people are being. They aren't even ashamed of the behavior. So many are just openly proud and belligerent over their rights to the exclusion of others. Or they are just totally lacking in awareness of how incredibly selfish it is that they are pleased to have been out while positive with Covid because at least they got their shopping done. :/

I think it is showing the truth about the values of many people. For example, self/family above community. Rights over responsibilities. Desires over duties. Hard to face, but that is what many people truly believe and the culture has encouraged and reinforced that in many, many ways since the 1950s (or perhaps more correctly, WWII).

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 1,158 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 267,144 confirmed cases of which 213,643 are recovering (+1,259). 138 more were reported to have passed for a total of 3,589. 93 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 639 (-40). According to KWWL, there are 49,912 active positive cases with a 24 hr. positivity rate of 27.6%.
Dec. 20: 138 more deaths after two days of no recorded deaths
access

 

[margarita25]

So, picking up with “Strains for Dummies“ and “Strains 101“, lol, from the first sentence in my previous post / BBM in red:

“What is a virus ‘strain’?

When scientists use the word strain, they are referring to a genetically distinct virus lineage, distinguishable by one or more mutations from another strain.”

—

A cursory google of the above bolded term “genetically distinct virus lineage” reveals the following:

Genetic Characterization of Betacoronavirus Lineage C Viruses in Bats Reveals Marked Sequence Divergence in the Spike Protein of Pipistrellus Bat Coronavirus HKU5 in Japanese Pipistrelle: Implications for the Origin of the Novel Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

( )

—

Eta:
(Cool images...I love Fig 3, the color one...”Hey man, is that Freedom Rock?“ lol)

 

[gngr~snap]

My husband and I will be alone for Christmas. No grandbabies or parents will be anywhere near us.
We are sad, so guess what I did?!
Bahahahaaa!
I got us some goofy matching pajamas and some silly socks to wear!
I mean we can't go anywhere so why not just have some fun?

All I need now are some Santa hats!!!
Moo
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08LKH9L6V/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_fabc_c.93FbV684YR3?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
https://m.kohls.com/product/prd-445...rganic&utm_source=google&utm_product=17841604

 

[Skigh]

France, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria ban all flights from UK | Daily Mail Online

 

[ilovewings]

My husband and I will be alone for Christmas. No grandbabies or parents will be anywhere near us.
We are sad, so guess what I did?!
Bahahahaaa!
I got us some goofy matching pajamas and some silly socks to wear!
I mean we can't go anywhere so why not just have some fun?
View attachment 276345 View attachment 276344
All I need now are some Santa hats!!!
Moo
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08LKH9L6V/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_fabc_c.93FbV684YR3?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
https://m.kohls.com/product/prd-445...rganic&utm_source=google&utm_product=17841604

I love the creative way you have found to have fun!!!!!! Enjoy----- I love the goofy jammies and socks!!!!