Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #96

[dixiegirl1035]

I have just left my local Sam's Club, in an area where 40% of the population is vaccinated. I was one of fewer than 5 people who were masked in the entire store (200+ people).

I am of the opinion, from watching TWIV, that the Delta variant may be more "FIT" but not necessarily more "transmissible". Instead, I think that human behavior (less masking, less distancing, more mingling) is fueling transmission, particularly in the unvaccinated.

It's been widely accepted from the very beginning that the Delta variant is more transmissible. IIRC the Ro is 5 times?? or 4x more transmissible.

Just the FACT that it is now #1 variant causing disease, and has overcome the original variant is proof it is more transmissible. In just a short time ... we have followed it's increase around the world as to it's Ro and Rt.

MOO

 

[SouthAussie]

It's been widely accepted from the very beginning that the Delta variant is more transmissible. IIRC the Ro is 5 times?? or 4x more transmissible.

Just the FACT that it is now #1 variant causing disease, and has overcome the original variant is proof it is more transmissible. In just a short time ... we have followed it's increase around the world as to it's Ro and Rt.

MOO

Yes, definitely more transmissible. There is a lot of data about that out there.
Human behaviour will also play a part. Wear a mask, socially distance, avoid large crowds ... then you might have a chance of missing the variants.


Experts estimate it could be about 50 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which was already about 50 per cent more transmissible than the original virus found in Wuhan.

If 100 people come into contact with someone with the Delta strain, 12 of those people are likely to be infected.
With the Alpha, or UK strain, only eight to nine people are likely to be infected.

The Delta variant is more infectious — but as more data comes out, there is some 'promising' news

 

[SouthAussie]

And this is likely why the unvaccinated are getting so sick when they contract Delta .....


Additionally, one recent study from China found that people who were presumably unvaccinated and infected with the Delta variant had a viral load within their respiratory systems that was 1,000 times higher than the amount of virus that was present among people who had been infected by the original strain of the virus.

3 Things You Need to Know About the Delta Variant - COVID-19, Featured, Health Topics - Hackensack Meridian Health

 

[SoCalDavidS]

https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1416479322152505353

 

[mickey2942]

@dixiegirl1035 wow! That is crazy, because you and I had the same thing. I had issues with mucus, and couldn't breathe either. It was scary as heck.

We have an adjustable bed, and I jacked that thing almost straight up. I couldn't lay down, I felt like I was drowning. I was taking Mucinex, cough syrup, meds. Sicker than I have been in over 20 years. And my husband, sleeps right next to me, perfectly fine. So, it was around June 22nd, I got sick, and didn't really feel better until July 4th.

 

[acutename]

I have been fully vaccinated since April, Pfizer. Last month, I had a "Summer Cold", that I didn't even think about getting a Covid test for, after all, I am vaccinated.

My husband, who had Moderna, did not catch my "Summer Cold".

I was coughing, hacking, exhausted, diarrhea, sneezing, massive migraines. Lasted about 2 weeks. I wonder if it was a variant? I see a lot of people every day...

If it had been Delta COVID, wouldn't you have transmitted it to people?

 

[CrimeAway]

It's been widely accepted from the very beginning that the Delta variant is more transmissible. IIRC the Ro is 5 times?? or 4x more transmissible.

Just the FACT that it is now #1 variant causing disease, and has overcome the original variant is proof it is more transmissible. In just a short time ... we have followed it's increase around the world as to it's Ro and Rt.

MOO

I don't know if there has been any PROOF that the Delta variant is more transmissible, or has a higher R0.

It certainly has become the dominant variant in many areas, but that may be due to other properties that the Delta variant possesses, changes in human behavior, and the age, actions, vaccination status and susceptibility of hosts, or IMO, probably an interaction between many of these factors.

However, the Delta variant seems to possess a fitness advantage.

I think now is not the time to be abandoning masks or social distancing.

All, JMO

 

[acutename]

And more good news for those of us who got the Pfizer vaccine.

Source: The Jerusalem Post

The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Friday, as 855 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were listed as places of high infection.

“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.

The prime minister held a meeting of top health officials and ministers to discuss the next steps for managing the virus in light of the numbers in Israel and what Bennett described as “the Delta mutation leaping forward around the world, including in vaccinated countries such as Britain, Israel and the US.”

He said that “Britain, in recent days, we have seen a jump in the number of children who are being hospitalized on a daily basis. This is a development that we are aware of; we are dealing with it rationally and responsibly.”

'Pfizer COVID vaccine significantly less effective against Delta variant'

I am confused by these Israeli stats that say Pfizer is less protective against Delta, and the other US and CDC sources which say Pfizer is fine and we do not need a third shot (which the Pfizer Co itself has suggested be administered). The only thing I have heard that might make all this less confusing is that the Israelis received Pfizer in January, so their shots are > 6 mos old and maybe immunity is waning. Very confusing.

 

[jjenny]

I am confused by these Israeli stats that say Pfizer is less protective against Delta, and the other US and CDC sources which say Pfizer is fine and we do not need a third shot (which the Pfizer Co itself has suggested be administered). The only thing I have heard that might make all this less confusing is that the Israelis received Pfizer in January, so their shots are > 6 mos old and maybe immunity is waning. Very confusing.

I am not confused at all. Clearly vaccines (including Pfizer) are less effective against delta. Look at Israel and UK. Highly vaccinated countries, yet infections are increasing (especially in UK) since delta started circulating.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Same here

I get runny noses sore throats regularly though the year. Sometimes it's hayfever. Sometimes it's a dust allergy.
Sometimes I think it's when I don't get enough sleep which happens often.
Sometimes it just happens for no reason I can think of.

This is not just now, it's all my adult life.

I wish there was some test for Covid that could be done at home.

One that didn't involve sticking something sharp in your nose would be my choice.

sigh ... I'm never gonna be able to leave my house

 

[TootsieFootsie]

In my minds eye I saw future Olympics with no one there in person. All done remotely with officials and athletes and then either splicing it all together, or using holograms. Or going ahead in real life with the athletes and officials having stand ins for them, ie a synthetic body double.

Like computer games, sort of.

Lots of talk on morning TV here about the Olympics. The Aussie teams have arrived in the Olympic village.

 

[ilovewings]

Delete

 

[ilovewings]

Hundreds protest at Henry Ford hospitals over COVID-19 vaccine mandate

It is so encouraging to see some of the employees at the hosptial I go too protesting getting vaccinated. They simply have no concept of how their behavior ( no vaccine) impact patients they come in contact with? seriously? I hope they leave the system: please go somewhere else- I don't want you to be involved in my care and expose me and my family to Covid.

 

[acutename]

Same here

I get runny noses sore throats regularly though the year. Sometimes it's hayfever. Sometimes it's a dust allergy.
Sometimes I think it's when I don't get enough sleep which happens often.
Sometimes it just happens for no reason I can think of.

This is not just now, it's all my adult life.

I wish there was some test for Covid that could be done at home.

One that didn't involve sticking something sharp in your nose would be my choice.

There is one here at least:
https://www.cvs.com › ... › Home Covid Test
At-home COVID-19 test kits ... PCR tests detect active COVID-19 infections and provide results in 1 to 2 days after sample is received by the lab. Rapid antigen ...
‎Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19... · ‎Ellume COVID-19 Home Test

but the last time I looked it was about $40, so not something you would want to do every day and the results take a few days and probably not covered by insurance, but not sure about that either.

 

[acutename]

The CDC needs to do the right thing. Admit their mistake, tell everyone to mask up, and save lives from Long Covid, death and preventable sufferings. I think the CDC will eventually change their stance on unmasking the vaccinated, hopefully realize unvaccinated also embrace unmasking, and stop giving them free pass to spread the dangerous virus to others as they please.

Maybe in a week or two? Need to be done yesterday.
IMO

I still just feel like an epidemiological experiment.

 

[CrimeAway]

I am confused by these Israeli stats that say Pfizer is less protective against Delta, and the other US and CDC sources which say Pfizer is fine and we do not need a third shot (which the Pfizer Co itself has suggested be administered). The only thing I have heard that might make all this less confusing is that the Israelis received Pfizer in January, so their shots are > 6 mos old and maybe immunity is waning. Very confusing.

I am not confused at all. Clearly vaccines (including Pfizer) are less effective against delta. Look at Israel and UK. Highly vaccinated countries, yet infections are increasing (especially in UK) since delta started circulating.

I think that it is not helpful for people's general understanding when the news media are often IMO confusing the issue by using incorrect nomenclature, and misrepresenting scientific studies.

As I understand it, vaccines are often given in a series, in order to adequately protect an individual.
The initial dose "primes" the immune system to recognize the foreign antigen. The second, or subsequent dose of the vaccine, is a "booster" and is administered to reinforce the effects of the first dose, and provide more stimulation to the immune system.

How Vaccines Work: A Step-By-Step Guide | St. Luke's Health

When a virus mutates enough, so that the immune system does not adequately recognize and respond to the newly mutated variant, then a NEW or tweaked vaccine is needed, for example as happens almost every year with the influenza vaccine. This is not a booster, per se, but a new vaccine. JMO

From what I have read so far, the Pfizer vaccine is still providing good efficacy (80%+) against the Delta variant infection (screenshot from)
DEFINE_ME
However it is my understanding that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is still effective against Delta infection, but somewhere in the 60-70% range.
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine shows effectiveness against Delta variant

BOTH Pfizer and AZ seem to be effective against HOSPITALIZATION from the Delta variant:
AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccines effective against Delta COVID-19 variants-study

All JMO until I can find links.

Also, the UK relied heavily on the AZ vaccine, and extended the vaccine interval between first and second doses. I think that this strategy actually wasn't a bad idea (I'm still not sure!), but maybe people relaxed too much, before they were fully vaccinated?

Also, it seems that the UK were not as strict as they could have been with regard to international travel.

In addition, I think that there has been a lot more testing over in the UK (compared to where I am in the US), but there seems to be great reliance on "lateral flow tests" which depending on the manufacturer, may not be as reliable as a lab based PCR test.
How reliable are lateral flow COVID-19 tests? - The Pharmaceutical Journal

How likely is a positive COVID-19 lateral flow test to be wrong?

It's my understanding that if one is testing every day using a less reliable test however, it is more likely to pick up a positive test, than say just doing a random once weekly test?

Vaccine efficacy, effectiveness and protection

These CV19 vaccine efficacy levels are still favorable when compared to annual influenza vaccines, although obviously, more effective is better.

Apparently, there are plans to "tweak" vaccines to provide improved efficacy against emerging variants, and/or possibly provide boosters for those, such as seniors who may mount a less robust immune response to the initial 1-2 doses.

ETA Links:

How Vaccines Work | PublicHealth.org

Booster Shots

Efficacy and effectiveness

 

[SouthAussie]

Well, here we go with the Olympics .....

Two athletes have become the first to test positive for Covid-19 inside the Tokyo Olympic Village, officials said on Sunday.

The bombshell news was confirmed by the Tokyo Organising Committee just minutes after it was first reported that the entire Australian athletics team had been forced into lockdown as a result of an inconclusive test within the camp.
(In the next article it says that the test result has come through, and the Aussie team has been approved for Olympic track meets - because they had their own plan of isolating each team member from each other).

Three athletes test positive in Tokyo Olympics disaster

*************************************

But there's more .....

Tokyo Olympics organisers on Saturday reported the first case of COVID-19 at the athletes’ village, along with 14 other new cases connected to the Games that begin next week.

The other cases included two members of the media, seven contractors and five Games personnel.

Australia’s Olympic Games athletics team forced into lockdown after COVID-19 scare

 

[SouthAussie]

There is one here at least:
https://www.cvs.com › ... › Home Covid Test
At-home COVID-19 test kits ... PCR tests detect active COVID-19 infections and provide results in 1 to 2 days after sample is received by the lab. Rapid antigen ...
‎Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19... · ‎Ellume COVID-19 Home Test

but the last time I looked it was about $40, so not something you would want to do every day and the results take a few days and probably not covered by insurance, but not sure about that either.

In Australia (where Tootsie and I both live) at-home covid test kits are not allowed yet.
The links provided within the below text explain why. Essentially, it is because they are too subject to fraud and inaccuracy at the moment - which can have a detrimental effect.


Note: The supply and advertising of COVID-19 tests to consumers for home use (self-tests) is prohibited in Australia under the Therapeutic Goods (Medical Devices—Excluded Purposes) Specification 2020(link is external) and the Therapeutic Goods Advertising Code (No.2) 2018(link is external).
For further guidance, read our warning to consumers and advertisers about COVID-19 test kits.

Note: Under the Therapeutic Goods Advertising Code, COVID-19 self-collection kits cannot be advertised to consumers.

Legal supply of COVID-19 test kits

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Thanks South !
I thought they weren't available because I hadn't seen anything official giving the approval for them.

Thanks for the link.

In Australia (where Tootsie and I both live) at-home covid test kits are not allowed yet.
The links provided within the below text explain why.

 

[CrimeAway]

I think that it is not helpful for people's general understanding when the news media are often IMO confusing the issue by using incorrect nomenclature, and misrepresenting scientific studies.

As I understand it, vaccines are often given in a series, in order to adequately protect an individual.
The initial dose "primes" the immune system to recognize the foreign antigen. The second, or subsequent dose of the vaccine, is a "booster" and is administered to reinforce the effects of the first dose, and provide more stimulation to the immune system.

How Vaccines Work: A Step-By-Step Guide | St. Luke's Health

When a virus mutates enough, so that the immune system does not adequately recognize and respond to the newly mutated variant, then a NEW or tweaked vaccine is needed, for example as happens almost every year with the influenza vaccine. This is not a booster, per se, but a new vaccine. JMO

From what I have read so far, the Pfizer vaccine is still providing good efficacy (80%+) against the Delta variant infection (screenshot from)
DEFINE_ME
However it is my understanding that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is still effective against Delta infection, but somewhere in the 60-70% range.
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine shows effectiveness against Delta variant

BOTH Pfizer and AZ seem to be effective against HOSPITALIZATION from the Delta variant:
AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccines effective against Delta COVID-19 variants-study

All JMO until I can find links.

Also, the UK relied heavily on the AZ vaccine, and extended the vaccine interval between first and second doses. I think that this strategy actually wasn't a bad idea (I'm still not sure!), but maybe people relaxed too much, before they were fully vaccinated?

Also, it seems that the UK were not as strict as they could have been with regard to international travel.

In addition, I think that there has been a lot more testing over in the UK (compared to where I am in the US), but there seems to be great reliance on "lateral flow tests" which depending on the manufacturer, may not be as reliable as a lab based PCR test.
How reliable are lateral flow COVID-19 tests? - The Pharmaceutical Journal

How likely is a positive COVID-19 lateral flow test to be wrong?

It's my understanding that if one is testing every day using a less reliable test however, it is more likely to pick up a positive test, than say just doing a random once weekly test?

Vaccine efficacy, effectiveness and protection

These CV19 vaccine efficacy levels are still favorable when compared to annual influenza vaccines, although obviously, more effective is better.

Apparently, there are plans to "tweak" vaccines to provide improved efficacy against emerging variants, and/or possibly provide boosters for those, such as seniors who may mount a less robust immune response to the initial 1-2 doses.

ETA Links:

How Vaccines Work | PublicHealth.org

Booster Shots

Efficacy and effectiveness

I updated my post with some links.

Also, here's the latest TWIV Clinical Update (reminder that if you watch on YouTube, you can speed up to 1:25 etc., if you desire).

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