Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #97

[Satchie]

"“With this Delta variant being so incredibly contagious, that changes the calculation in terms of when we can expect to see that herd immunity — that elusive herd immunity. We don’t know what percentage of the population needs to be immune to get there, but it’s going to be very high,” Doron said. “Eventually though, whether it’s through vaccination or infection, we will get there.”"

Am I the only one who is finding this near impossible to believe? At first we were told we'd get lasting immunity if we caught covid. And that we'd not be able to get covid for the most part if we got vaccinated. Everything so far is worse than expected.

There is no way at this rate we can hit a high enough percentage of population having herd immunity when half the population won't get vaccinated. The vaccines are drastically reduced in effectiveness after just months. Certainly not a year. And the vaccinated are still catching it and spreading it within a relatively short period after vaccination. And then those who catch covid naturally often don't have lasting immunity. Covid groups are full of people who have had covid twice with in the last year. Then throw in the fact that this virus is apparently constantly mutating and so far we aren't getting milder versions that out compete the more virulent ones so far.

I think this is just gross optimism to try and keep pushing people to get vaccinated just so they can see what happens and hope for the best. None of them really knows what the heck they are talking about. It's all suppositions and they've been wrong most of the time so far always opting for the most optimistic outcome that never comes.

People who are vaccinated don't really have immunity like with measles, mumps etc. We just have reduced severity of disease. If being vaccinated means we can get sick and spread it but just be less likely for severe illness or death how does that truly contribute to herd immunity? If we need X percentage immune and not spreading then we aren't meeting those goals by counting all the vaccinated like they are immune. At this point we know an increasing percentage are not. They are spreading it just the same.

IDK, I try to remember that this is unprecedented in the modern world. No one has dealt with a disease that has, so far, infected 200 million people and killed 4 million in 18 months, in spite of massive lockdowns, quarantine, mask wearing, etc.

IMO, there really aren't superhuman people out there who can come and rescue us from this. Scientists, governments, are doing the best they can, and have done plenty, it would be much worse, if we didn't have vaccines.

And I think a senior health professional who decides to speak to the media and say 'it's hopeless, it's just a mess, I throw up my hands in despair', is going to be out of a job. Quite rightly, IMO, you never solve problems if you just give up to pessimism.

 

[pocketaccent]

Wow! Watch our case numbers go sky high beginning mid-August. But this is the right thing to do IMO. I hope other institutions do the same. Test them all!

LAUSD to require COVID-19 testing, regardless of vaccination status
The Los Angeles Unified School District will require all students and employees who are returning for in-person instruction to participate in weekly COVID-19 testing — regardless of vaccination status, the district announced Thursday.
...
LAUSD, the nation’s second-largest school district, had previously said that fully vaccinated students and employees would not require testing. But as schools district-wide prepare to reopen for in-person instruction on Aug. 16, L.A. Unified said it’s closely monitoring evolving health conditions and adapting its response.
...

 

[margarita25]

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[WichitaFalls]

How these mutations made delta the most transmissible COVID variant yet
Upon first inspection, the mutations in the highly contagious delta COVID variant don’t look that worrisome.

For starters, delta has fewer genetic changes than earlier versions of the coronavirus.

“When people saw that the epidemic in India was driven by delta, they did not suspect it would be so bad or overtake other variants,” said Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

But those expectations were wrong.

Delta has kept some of the most successful mutations found in earlier variants, but also contains new genetic changes that enable it to spread twice as fast.

More at link . . .
How these mutations made delta the most transmissible COVID variant yet

 

[beatrixpotter]

I tend to agree with you.

The Gratton Institute (independent research facility, based on good public policy) seems to think that if/when we have an 80% full-vaccination rate that we can loosen up.

Not so much because we will be virus free, but because then we will be able to fully manage the sickness in the best way possible.

Until we reach that high rate, they suggest that we need to continue our regime of squelching the virus whenever it pops up.

Australia can’t dump zero Covid strategy until 80% of people vaccinated, Grattan Institute warns

Did Israel not reach that level? I need to go look it up....
edit: Not even close it seems

 

[beatrixpotter]

IDK, I try to remember that this is unprecedented in the modern world. No one has dealt with a disease that has, so far, infected 200 million people and killed 4 million in 18 months, in spite of massive lockdowns, quarantine, mask wearing, etc.

IMO, there really aren't superhuman people out there who can come and rescue us from this. Scientists, governments, are doing the best they can, and have done plenty, it would be much worse, if we didn't have vaccines.

And I think a senior health professional who decides to speak to the media and say 'it's hopeless, it's just a mess, I throw up my hands in despair', is going to be out of a job. Quite rightly, IMO, you never solve problems if you just give up to pessimism.

While true, that wasn't really my point. I'm not talking about what does someone say so they don't risk their job. I'm talking about what's realistic and likely based on the actual science we have. Public officials have consistently said what they feel needs to be said not what's likely true. It's so far been overly optimistic.

My point was the science as given doesn't add up and is inconsistent with the predictions. And based on what we know and what's been predicted I am personally very pessimistic at any sort of true herd immunity any time soon if at all. The scientists I can find who are a little more forthright regarding the fact that they don't know everything for sure indicate that herd immunity is something that's more likely to take a decade or more based on the only other times we've accomplished it or come close.

The piece meal doling out of info at the start of the pandemic was one thing. Personally I'm sick of it right now. And I don't care what the nanobot people think. They are going to freak out over everything. There is literally nothing done that they don't deliberately twist. I'd like some more accurate discussions though about what scenarios we might be looking at instead of the most optimistic one possible that's carefully stated in such a way as to get people to cooperate and not panic.

That probably won't happen though. This is just my venting on one small forum about this. I'm well aware that pretty much no one else wants to really hear this info. But we know for a fact the CDC has been consistently doling out info based on what was expedient and not necessarily accurate from the beginning. I'll still use the CDC to bolster an argument with someone else who relies on totally crazy news sources. BUT it's definitely tempered for me that it's never been in keeping with what we really knew was going on from the fact that covid was airborne, that we needed masks, all the way to anyone reading online knew the delta variant was here and going to spread but instead they went with trying to entice people with the reward of no masks if they'd just get vaccinated.

 

[Sundog]

Biden calls on states to offer $100 vaccine incentives

So, people who didn't get a vaccine can go get one now, and get $100? Great. Reward irresponsible behavior. Typical.

Govenor of Ohio announced yesterday that state employees will recieve $100 if they get the vaccine and $25 for their spouses. And it is retroactive, so if you are a state employee who has already received the vaccine, and your spouse as well, you are eligible for the $100 and $25 respectively.

 

[weepingangel]

CDC will release data supporting its mask guidance Friday
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it will release a study Friday that supports this week’s decision to change mask guidance.

 

[mickey2942]

@beatrixpotter the real problem here is that everyone had to rely on the honesty of others. That people who were not vaccinated would continue to wear masks.

That didn't happen. And that is part of the surge in cases among children, who couldn't get vaccinated yet. It seems like responsible parents, even vaccinated, continued to wear masks, along with their children. The others, flung off their masks, and went off, along with their unmasked children.

Why would anyone responsible do that? It has now put us in this mess. So much for trust in fellow man.

 

[pocketaccent]

Re: Third shot of Pfizer vaccine (booster)
I had a telephone "Medicare Wellness Visit" this afternoon. Near the end, she asked if I had any questions, so I asked her (a nurse) when I might be able to have a third Pfizer shot. She said not until it's FDA approved. We'll just have to wait and see, I reckon, but with Delta, I hope the FDA will not delay too long. I believe Pfizer has indicated it will file in August for Emergency Use Authorization for certain groups including old folks like DH and me.

We are in the UNC health care system and I'm sure once a third dose is approved for our age group, we will hear about it.

Just now listening to a story on NPR about vaccinated people possibly being at risk for long Covid. All the more reason not to pussyfoot around with this, IMO.

I'm dreading the possibility that booster shots may be necessary every few months. Because of my medical condition, it already took a lot of encouragement and bravery to take my first two shots.

It looks like we (vaccinated) have a choice to make. Take booster shots for every new variants, or get breakthrough infection to develop natural immunity for a little while, or stay at home permanently.

All options dreadful and uninviting.

 

[anneg]

How these mutations made delta the most transmissible COVID variant yet
Upon first inspection, the mutations in the highly contagious delta COVID variant don’t look that worrisome.

For starters, delta has fewer genetic changes than earlier versions of the coronavirus.

“When people saw that the epidemic in India was driven by delta, they did not suspect it would be so bad or overtake other variants,” said Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

But those expectations were wrong.

Delta has kept some of the most successful mutations found in earlier variants, but also contains new genetic changes that enable it to spread twice as fast.

More at link . . .
How these mutations made delta the most transmissible COVID variant yet

Scary article IMO! Here the last two paragraphs (red/BBM):

By failing to contain the virus through vaccination, wearing masks and avoiding crowds, people are allowing the coronavirus to morph into increasingly dangerous forms, said Dr. William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School professor who helped design treatments for HIV/AIDS.

“It’s getting better, and we’re making it better,” he said. “Having half the population vaccinated and half unvaccinated and unprotected — that is the exact experiment I would design if I were a devil and trying to design a vaccine-busting virus.”

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>
My point was the science as given doesn't add up and is inconsistent with the predictions. And based on what we know and what's been predicted I am personally very pessimistic at any sort of true herd immunity any time soon if at all. The scientists I can find who are a little more forthright regarding the fact that they don't know everything for sure indicate that herd immunity is something that's more likely to take a decade or more based on the only other times we've accomplished it or come close.

I think history might hold up though. And I think we need to look at that, and realise that this may be what happens with this pandemic. Basic herd immunity achieved after about 3 years. Once much of the world had been infected (and in our case include those who have been vaccinated). Then once the virus could find no new hosts, it settled into being an endemic flu.

And scientists discovering relative outcomes much, much later. Because the research takes time.

I can't imagine what would happen if we weren't all given hope that this will end.


UBM
Historians now believe that the fatal severity of the Spanish 1918 flu’s “second wave” was caused by a mutated virus spread by wartime troop movements.
Only decades later were scientists able to explain the phenomenon now known as “cytokine storm.” When the human body is being attacked by a virus, the immune system sends messenger proteins called cytokines to promote helpful inflammation.
Harris believes that the rapid spread of Spanish 1918 flu in the fall of 1918 was at least partially to blame on public health officials unwilling to impose quarantines during wartime.

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly

 

[beatrixpotter]

@beatrixpotter the real problem here is that everyone had to rely on the honesty of others. That people who were not vaccinated would continue to wear masks.

That didn't happen. And that is part of the surge in cases among children, who couldn't get vaccinated yet. It seems like responsible parents, even vaccinated, continued to wear masks, along with their children. The others, flung off their masks, and went off, along with their unmasked children.

Why would anyone responsible do that? It has now put us in this mess. So much for trust in fellow man.

Where I live the overwhelming majority of parents have chosen to not mask their children in basically every situation. They are usually only wearing them where they are required to like at the doctor's office. I mean I know they exist because I see some of them commenting in the local online discussions. But I almost never see in them in real life.

I've also noticed there is a huge racial divide regarding masks where I live. I've not seen anyone talk about it. But my husband and I have talked about it amongst ourselves. If we go to the library we are about the only white people there wearing a mask. Everyone else wearing a mask is a minority basically. Our food coop? The Farmer's Market? Almost all the white people have no masks and those of color do. It's very sadly consistent.

 

[ilovewings]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/

"The war has changed- internal CDC documents now urges newer messaging warning that Delta is likely more severe". Not only that Delta is considered as transmissible as a cold.

Reading this put me into a state of depression. It is clear that being vaccinated is no guarantee against serious infection and possibly death. It is such a bummer I truly cannot believe this is happening. When I got the vaccine I really felt protected- I knew it was not 100%- not only is it not 100%, but vaccinated people can transmit a viral load as large as though they were not vaccinated. Read this and weep! This variant is the work of the devil!

 

[beatrixpotter]

Wow! Watch our case numbers go sky high beginning mid-August. But this is the right thing to do IMO. I hope other institutions do the same. Test them all!

LAUSD to require COVID-19 testing, regardless of vaccination status
The Los Angeles Unified School District will require all students and employees who are returning for in-person instruction to participate in weekly COVID-19 testing — regardless of vaccination status, the district announced Thursday.
...
LAUSD, the nation’s second-largest school district, had previously said that fully vaccinated students and employees would not require testing. But as schools district-wide prepare to reopen for in-person instruction on Aug. 16, L.A. Unified said it’s closely monitoring evolving health conditions and adapting its response.
...

This definitely makes sense. If the vaccinated can get it and spread it it's foolish to not test them too. They sound like they are trying to actually manage the situation rather than hide cases and fudge numbers there.

 

[anneg]

I already wrote here about two vaccinated people (married couple) we know with breakthrough Covid after going to an RV rally. They are quarantining at home and recovering.

Now we've heard about another vaccinated person we know, a member of our church's staff, who has tested positive. He is also quarantining at home.

From what I know about these cases, failure to wear a mask evidently played a role.

 

[Angleterre]

I'm sorry the virus hit you so hard and caused you feel so terrible. Good thing you didn't have access to a gun! It's good that you seem to be improving, and I hope you will be back to full health soon.

Thank you @anneg
Apologies for my late reply
I have been absent for quite a few days because although last weekend I was covid free and ravenous, by Monday (26th) I was totally out of it, I couldn’t put sentences together and speaking and texting was exhausting and I have just slept, all day and all night, waking only when my children have brought me food or drink . I think they think that I am just being lazy now but I have literally been unable to get my head off the pillow. When I do stand up and walk around, I’m shaking with exhaustion and I haven’t washed my hair for over a week which is so unlike me. My son upset me the other day ( he’s 14 and doesn’t understand) because I asked if he could ask Dad to warm me up some soup and Dad said to tell me to get out of bed and get it myself! When I said to my son why I was asking him rather than do it myself, he just shrugged his shoulders and said well dads been getting you cold glasses of water and bringing you little bits to eat every day and he’s fed up of it now when you can get it yourself! And I cried and cried, probably feeling sorry for myself because I just thought of Everything I do in our home and now I can’t , it’s as though I’m just being lazy and should just crack on with it now covid is negative. But I can’t, I just feel so tired and poorly. I can’t walk to the top of the driveway without being breathless!
So I’ve been fed sad and unsupported. Then I started to question- am I just being lazy ? Should I be up and doing now ? But I just can’t.
Anyway, we have a cottage booked in the Lake District for 7 days from tomorrow so o have said that I will go to but please don’t expect me to do anything other than stay in the cottage and cook and play games etc but I won’t be going out hiking and biking and horse riding, I need to relax and get well . So fingers crossed it works out that way.
I’m day 17 currently since Covid belted me and I am wondering if it’s normal to feel how I do and to still be stuck in bed just sleeping, ?
My mother always said that if your body is sleeping then you need it so go with it! But it’s almost a week since covid left me and I’m still feeling yuk ! Help ! Advice greatly appreciated or even personal experience….

 

[Angleterre]

Wow, that sounds really creepy.

That’s right it is
Sorry to be so graphic but I sneezed without a large tissue and didn’t catch all the mucus and it went onto my fingers and it was so thick and clear /silvery grey looking and I couldn’t get it off my hands because it was literally making web patterns with the way in which it was stretching! Sorry if that’s TMI

 

[Deleted member 158085]

He tested NEGATIVE....so far so good...but I will feel a lot better if he takes another one in a few days...just to make sure.

He gets tested 2 or 3 x a week for his job. So he is like my birdie in the coal mine--as long as he is good, I feel OK.

He and my daughter both interacted with their friend that morning ---passing the puppy back and forth between them. And so far their friend is still testing negative as well. Even though her co-worker has tested positive and has gotten pretty ill.

I've been down this road a few times. Try not to worry. I know that's easier said than done. But after my 3rd time getting tested because of contact with a positive I finally found that I was somewhat desensitized to the entire experience.

Hoping for the best outcome for you.

 

[margarita25]

I've been down this road a few times. Try not to worry. I know that's easier said than done. But after my 3rd time getting tested because of contact with a positive I finally found that I was somewhat desensitized to the entire experience.

Hoping for the best outcome for you.

Ditto, hoping for best outcome.