Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #99

[Lilibet]

Ditto thanking Sillybilly for the clear mod direction not to minimize Covid.

I’m so sorry about your friends @Knitty. That poor child!

We have a friend here in Southern Oregon who was scheduled for a knee replacement at a local hospital in late July. It was canceled the morning of the surgery because of Covid cases filling the hospital! He can’t go to the same day surgery center due to other issues. He was just about to get the surgery before elective surgery shut down here in Oregon in Spring 2020. Now that he was vaxxed it was rescheduled. So he’s been in pain for more than two years with no end in sight. He and his wife are in their early 80s.

My husband and I are in our mid-70s and hope we don’t get sick or injured enough to need hospitalization.

Thank you SillyBilly, for your latest mod note!

In response to a lot of posts, about a lot of things:

I had my COVID vaccine at a CVS, flu shot every year at Publix, and back in 2018 had a number of others updated upon recommendation by primary doc based upon some work I was doing at the time, also at Publix. She saw all of those on a registry when I was there last week. I'm surprised that Florida has something other states don't. We aren't usually ahead of the game when it comes to public health.

The four counties near me are out of ICU beds. They are out of pediatric ICU beds.

The mother of a friend of mine had a heart attack Sunday. She needed an ICU bed, but there was none to be had. She has died.

The mother of another friend had a UTI. She's elderly and needed a catheter change. Instead of 30 minutes, the usual, it took 6 HOURS before she could be seen to have that done.

An older friend of mine needs back surgery, badly. Because of her age, she is required to have it in hospital, unlike the outpatient back surgery I had two years ago. Because of the number of COVID patients that are taking up all the resources in hospitals here, her surgery was cancelled. She is in severe, chronic pain and has no idea when she will be rescheduled.

The four-year-old daughter of one of my son's friends had COVID-19 and was hospitalized about 6 months ago. During her infection, her pancreas shut down. She now has Diabetes Type I. Forever.

 

[10ofRods]

More and more of my friends and colleagues are going straight to private doctors with what would have been ER visits in pre-COVID (ancient) times. Broken toes, broken ankles, scratched corneas - just sitting it out if it's a weekend, seeking advice from friends/family who are nurses, etc.

All of us trying to stay out of the hospital, for sure.

 

[10ofRods]

Thank you SillyBilly, for your latest mod note!

In response to a lot of posts, about a lot of things:

I had my COVID vaccine at a CVS, flu shot every year at Publix, and back in 2018 had a number of others updated upon recommendation by primary doc based upon some work I was doing at the time, also at Publix. She saw all of those on a registry when I was there last week. I'm surprised that Florida has something other states don't. We aren't usually ahead of the game when it comes to public health.

The four counties near me are out of ICU beds. They are out of pediatric ICU beds.

The mother of a friend of mine had a heart attack Sunday. She needed an ICU bed, but there was none to be had. She has died.

The mother of another friend had a UTI. She's elderly and needed a catheter change. Instead of 30 minutes, the usual, it took 6 HOURS before she could be seen to have that done.

An older friend of mine needs back surgery, badly. Because of her age, she is required to have it in hospital, unlike the outpatient back surgery I had two years ago. Because of the number of COVID patients that are taking up all the resources in hospitals here, her surgery was cancelled. She is in severe, chronic pain and has no idea when she will be rescheduled.

The four-year-old daughter of one of my son's friends had COVID-19 and was hospitalized about 6 months ago. During her infection, her pancreas shut down. She now has Diabetes Type I. Forever.

We need more posts like this (and I assure you that I use them in an abbreviated form to try and educate students - although I'm happy to say that most of my current 100 students are vaccinated - we'll be requiring the vaccine to set foot on campus starting Oct 16.) I wish my vaccine-reluctant family members (some of whom have COVID right now and are quite ill) would learn that it's not just death that they're facing, but perhaps lifelong debilitating illness.

The increasingly numbers of severely ill children are partly due to school being in session nearly everywhere and far more children getting COVID - possibly with higher viral loads than in the early days. The approval of vaccines for children can't happen fast enough.

I'm so sorry that your friends are suffering, waiting for care. I have friends waiting for radiological testing, not wanting to go into a room with someone who may or may not be vaccinated. Most medical office staff seem to be wearing ordinary surgical masks (not my favorite idea), while at my dentist everyone has N-95's. I'm hearing that the biggest radiology clinic in town is using surgical masks, not N-95's, and my older friends are uncomfortable with that.

This all seems endless. I think autumn will bring greater case numbers in those populations that are unvaccinated (in my county only 0.39% of new cases are among the vaccinated...)

 

[10ofRods]

There will never be a 100% vaccination rate in the US, imo. Even if it's "mandated" by the Feds. Not even close. My state is only about 50% even now, if you accept the statistics.

eta: I checked, and its only 47.8%

Right - we'll be in what are effectively different populations (one could call them gene pools).

I expect the state where I live to get to 80% of over 12's vaccinated within month and to 85% fully vaccinated by next Spring. We're at about 77% of eligible population with at least one shot already (and some of those took a one shot vaccine). That number will change because newly eligible populations (12 and over; then the 5-11 group at some point in the next year). Vaccination rate is increasing again (more daily vaccines given) due to all the publicity of dead talk show hosts and contagion in other states. People are really talking about it and tweeting about it.

Combine that with a lot of unvaccinated people getting COVID (a quick review of the literature on that for my state says that about 12% will have had COVID by Christmas. but of those, at least half are also getting vaccinated - so let's say we'll have an additional 5% with COVID-induced immunity).

I'm predicting about 90% in these two categories for my state by beginning of next summer (higher if the rates of COVID among the unvaccinated continue to climb as they are right now - not exponential yet, but significant). It will never be 100% of the eligible population, as new people come into that population every day. But 90% is good enough and should bring COVID cases down to a very small number here - herd immunity.

I also predict that as more and more employers require the vaccines (mostly large employers based in urban settings, also the state government where I live, and probably federal employees as well) and as insurance companies modify payment for COVID services (and the federal government does as well), we will see people less able to move states for employment or to obtain employment in a still-functioning state, unless they are willing to be vaccinated. To me, it's a sad and vicious cycle, wherein the states that are anti-science education and persons who are anti-science will continue to be unable to provide medical and educational resources, as the drain on their healthcare system of COVID is already too great. I have no clue how private hospitals in those states will continue to accept COVID patients. I worry that public hospitals in those states will also be overwhelmed and resort to less than state-of-the-art (often expensive) treatments.

So, while death rates from COVID are already flattening where I live, we sadly see them still spiking in many other places (although mostly not as high as in earlier phases - still, Hawaii is an example of a state that is just now experiencing the real impact of out-of-control COVID; Oahu mainly right now, and then Maui, but it will hit Big Island at some point (where not everyone is active on the internet or would know exactly what's about to hit them).

 

[IceIce9]

Lots of info here about how Covid (Delta) is affecting children. Read it and weep.

From increased hospitalizations to long Covid, children can get hit hard by Covid-19. Here's why doctors say kids should be protected - CNN
There are a few paragraphs under each of the following subheadings:

Almost half of children hospitalized with Covid-19 had no known underlying condition

Covid-19 deaths in children shouldn't be ignored, CDC chief says

Protecting kids from Covid-19 is critical to keep them in schools

MIS-C and long Covid can leave lasting impacts

Children can accidentally help spur new variants

Speaking from my own experience, we have had some very sick young children who have tested positive for COVID in our clinic. Parents, please take COVID seriously.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I had a bizarre text message from my doctor's surgery here in the south of England today. It says "due to a global shortage of blood bottles we are unable to provide routine blood tests until further notice". Apparently urgent samples requested by a doctor will still be taken but other appointments will be cancelled. What?!!

 

[Cool Cats]

I had a bizarre text message from my doctor's surgery here in the south of England today. It says "due to a global shortage of blood bottles we are unable to provide routine blood tests until further notice". Apparently urgent samples requested by a doctor will still be taken but other appointments will be cancelled. What?!!

GPs and hospitals to limit blood tests in England due to bottle shortage

NHS says lack of plastic bottles for samples will worsen and last ‘for a significant period’

Hospitals are also telling GPs in their area to cut back on the number of tests they do by more than 50%.

The shortage has arisen because Becton Dickinson, the NHS’s main supplier of blood collection tubes, has not been able to keep up with demand for its products.

A company spokesperson also cited other reasons. “In addition to increased demand, we are seeing continued transportation challenges that have affected all industries, including port and transport capacity, air freight capacity and UK border challenges. Suppliers are also challenged to meet increased demand for raw materials and components,” they said.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

GPs and hospitals to limit blood tests in England due to bottle shortage

NHS says lack of plastic bottles for samples will worsen and last ‘for a significant period’

Hospitals are also telling GPs in their area to cut back on the number of tests they do by more than 50%.

The shortage has arisen because Becton Dickinson, the NHS’s main supplier of blood collection tubes, has not been able to keep up with demand for its products.

A company spokesperson also cited other reasons. “In addition to increased demand, we are seeing continued transportation challenges that have affected all industries, including port and transport capacity, air freight capacity and UK border challenges. Suppliers are also challenged to meet increased demand for raw materials and components,” they said.

Thanks Cool, missed this in the news somehow.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Thank you SillyBilly, for your latest mod note!

In response to a lot of posts, about a lot of things:

I had my COVID vaccine at a CVS, flu shot every year at Publix, and back in 2018 had a number of others updated upon recommendation by primary doc based upon some work I was doing at the time, also at Publix. She saw all of those on a registry when I was there last week. I'm surprised that Florida has something other states don't. We aren't usually ahead of the game when it comes to public health.

The four counties near me are out of ICU beds. They are out of pediatric ICU beds.

The mother of a friend of mine had a heart attack Sunday. She needed an ICU bed, but there was none to be had. She has died.

The mother of another friend had a UTI. She's elderly and needed a catheter change. Instead of 30 minutes, the usual, it took 6 HOURS before she could be seen to have that done.

An older friend of mine needs back surgery, badly. Because of her age, she is required to have it in hospital, unlike the outpatient back surgery I had two years ago. Because of the number of COVID patients that are taking up all the resources in hospitals here, her surgery was cancelled. She is in severe, chronic pain and has no idea when she will be rescheduled.

The four-year-old daughter of one of my son's friends had COVID-19 and was hospitalized about 6 months ago. During her infection, her pancreas shut down. She now has Diabetes Type I. Forever.

The state of Illinois also has records of every vaccine, no matter where it is obtained within the state. I just signed up to view my record recently and was impressed.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

The rest of the world already knows.

I really thought the original "Ugly American" (abroad) was gone........

 

[Cool Cats]

Coronavirus Australia: Anti-vaxxer who used to think Covid was 'just another flu' issues plea | Daily Mail Online

Ashamed conspiracy theorist who thought Covid was 'just another flu' issues a warning every sceptic needs to hear - as the healthy mum-of-three endures a horrific virus battle after refusing to get the vaccine

Amanda Gulasi (pictured) believed Covid wasn't real and 'just another flu' until she was struck down with the virus last week

'At the start of Covid, I was completely on the side of the conspiracy theorists,' she admitted.

'Every conspiracy that came out, I was believing in it.

'This time with Delta I thought, OK, maybe there is something to but I definitely believe it now. It is real and it will kill you.'

'It's just not worth going through just for a few side effects,' she told A Current Affair while struggling to breathe.

'This is a side effect of not being vaccinated.

'I would hate to be someone who's elderly or somebody who is at risk and be feeling the way I feel.'

She described Covid as 'not pleasant' in her video from hospital.

'Vaccinate people, vaccinate. No, seriously, it's not fun,' she said.

'I was just a bit hesitant with how fast these vaccines were produced and the scare tactics the government used to make us vaccinate, such as withholding our freedoms,' Ms Gulasi said.

Around 87 per cent of the 137 NSW (New South Wales) cases currently fighting for life in intensive care are completely unvaccinated, with only one person having received both jabs.

Ms Gulasi now wishes she'd listened to the warnings about the virus as she issued a desperate plea to Covid deniers who refuse to roll up their sleeves.

'If you don't believe it, then just stay inside. Spread your anti-vax message from inside your home,' she said

'Pray that it doesn't happen to you and pray it doesn't happen to your family. It's a possible death sentence.'

 

[10ofRods]

I had a bizarre text message from my doctor's surgery here in the south of England today. It says "due to a global shortage of blood bottles we are unable to provide routine blood tests until further notice". Apparently urgent samples requested by a doctor will still be taken but other appointments will be cancelled. What?!!

I've been following this one. Those little vials with the colored stoppers are currently (mostly) unavailable in UK, and of course, it's due to disruption of trade and suppliers. China is the biggest supplier of those (and like the US, the UK buyers tried to buy only the top quality ones - China created the shortage when it stopped cargo shipping due to COVID, is now sending them out by plane - but some of the manufacturers are brand new/not up to first world standards).

It doesn't help that UK medical supply houses additionally face onerous bureaucracy in trying to get them from the few European producers or suppliers. Some are banding together to ask the UK government to meet with EU officials about lessening red tape and restriction around these items - this was bound to happen. Stricter trade rules come into play tomorrow, I believe. Absolutely no progress on renegotiating that - because it has to do with WTO and its standards, under which the UK must now trade (until UK manages to negotiate something else).

Personal opinion? UK needs way better negotiators for these things. Especially trade agreements. Most populous states in the US have entire bureaucracies devoted to international trade (and California signs trade agreements on its own, as do most states - Utah is actually amazing at this). It takes years to learn to do it and of course, years for the bureaucracy to mature, but UK needs to hire some experts at international logistics and set up some new governmental office, IMO

It seems from the news that only UK has this critical shortage. In the case of the US, the FDA stockpiled such supplies. We have shortages (recently resolved) with just one type of tube (light blue top). Each color tube corresponds to different chemicals inside the tube. The FDA has a public page showing shortages, it changes daily, so doctors and anyone else can see whether a particular drug or medical item is in short supply. UK needs that too. Because for so many years, the EU's medical bureaucracy was managing this, it is a critical new function that UK has to do for itself. IMO.

Hope that wasn't too much information and I send positive energy to Britain every day. The NHS seems to be in full on crisis mode and terribly underfunded for these international tasks and purchases. Here in the states, we have relationships among states where critical supplies that are in shortage (right now, fire-related in California) are eased by help from 15-18 other states (and we reciprocate - long story, but lots of almost new fire trucks are sent every year by California to other states who can't afford new ones, while our economy permits us to continue to buy new ones; same with FLIR cameras and some helicopter types). In return, if we ever need more of something that another state has (often some natural resource - like lumber for power poles), we get help from their stockpiles.

UK will resolve this - I just wish it were far sooner and that it hadn't gotten to this point. Keep us posted! Hope you are well.

 

[charminglane]

@10ofRods -
I am so glad you are on WS.
Just the facts, Ma'am.

 

[10ofRods]

Thank you, @charminglane.

I was taking a bit of a break from the COVID forum (summer teaching was all about COVID, got a little burned out). I love your avatar.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I am curious about the boosters. IF Moderna produces more antibodies, is it because it has a heavier dose of the vaccines?? Is the Booster identical to the original two doses?

"Moderna Inc.’s Covid vaccine generated more than double the antibodies of a similar shot made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE in research that compared immune responses evoked by the two inoculations. "

Moderna Makes Twice as Many Antibodies as Pfizer, Study Says

 

[anneg]

I really thought the original "Ugly American" (abroad) was gone........

I didn't. Maybe the opposite.

 

[IceIce9]

I am curious about the boosters. IF Moderna produces more antibodies, is it because it has a heavier dose of the vaccines?? Is the Booster identical to the original two doses?

"Moderna Inc.’s Covid vaccine generated more than double the antibodies of a similar shot made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE in research that compared immune responses evoked by the two inoculations. "

Moderna Makes Twice as Many Antibodies as Pfizer, Study Says

Just my experience- the hospital system where I work has had 21 employees with “breakthrough” cases of COVID. That is, they test positive for COVID after being fully vaccinated.

To date, every case has been after receiving the Pfizer vaccine. Now, this is a very small sample and most of the employees here did receive Pfizer instead of Moderna, so YMMV.

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Be careful, doing the right thing in America, is liable to get you fired.

ADRIAN – Kevin Purnell was fired Monday as superintendent of the Adrian School District just one week after students returned to school.

The Adrian School Board, convening in an emotionally charged special meeting, voted 4-1 Monday evening to terminate Purnell after meeting in an executive, or closed door, session for less than half an hour to consider the matter.

The board provided no public explanation for its surprise decision to oust a superintendent who has been on the job for three years and in the district for 14 years. But critics and supporters of Purnell’s stance on mask mandates made clear it was a pivotal issue in his fissure with the board.

Board Chair Eddie Kincade said after the meeting that the decision was because of Purnell’s failure to follow board directives. He declined to elaborate.

Rural Oregon school superintendent fired after enforcing state mask mandate

 

[HongKongPhooey]

I've been following this one. Those little vials with the colored stoppers are currently (mostly) unavailable in UK, and of course, it's due to disruption of trade and suppliers. China is the biggest supplier of those (and like the US, the UK buyers tried to buy only the top quality ones - China created the shortage when it stopped cargo shipping due to COVID, is now sending them out by plane - but some of the manufacturers are brand new/not up to first world standards).

It doesn't help that UK medical supply houses additionally face onerous bureaucracy in trying to get them from the few European producers or suppliers. Some are banding together to ask the UK government to meet with EU officials about lessening red tape and restriction around these items - this was bound to happen. Stricter trade rules come into play tomorrow, I believe. Absolutely no progress on renegotiating that - because it has to do with WTO and its standards, under which the UK must now trade (until UK manages to negotiate something else).

Personal opinion? UK needs way better negotiators for these things. Especially trade agreements. Most populous states in the US have entire bureaucracies devoted to international trade (and California signs trade agreements on its own, as do most states - Utah is actually amazing at this). It takes years to learn to do it and of course, years for the bureaucracy to mature, but UK needs to hire some experts at international logistics and set up some new governmental office, IMO

It seems from the news that only UK has this critical shortage. In the case of the US, the FDA stockpiled such supplies. We have shortages (recently resolved) with just one type of tube (light blue top). Each color tube corresponds to different chemicals inside the tube. The FDA has a public page showing shortages, it changes daily, so doctors and anyone else can see whether a particular drug or medical item is in short supply. UK needs that too. Because for so many years, the EU's medical bureaucracy was managing this, it is a critical new function that UK has to do for itself. IMO.

Hope that wasn't too much information and I send positive energy to Britain every day. The NHS seems to be in full on crisis mode and terribly underfunded for these international tasks and purchases. Here in the states, we have relationships among states where critical supplies that are in shortage (right now, fire-related in California) are eased by help from 15-18 other states (and we reciprocate - long story, but lots of almost new fire trucks are sent every year by California to other states who can't afford new ones, while our economy permits us to continue to buy new ones; same with FLIR cameras and some helicopter types). In return, if we ever need more of something that another state has (often some natural resource - like lumber for power poles), we get help from their stockpiles.

UK will resolve this - I just wish it were far sooner and that it hadn't gotten to this point. Keep us posted! Hope you are well.

Thank you all ways here. I do tend to "filter" a lot of news these days but always check the headlines - havent seen a thing about this (surprise).

Next long covid clinic journey stop this Thurs - respiratory physiologist. "Pacing" is def helping generally though, recommend it to other long haulers out there whenever it's practical.

 

[anneg]

Immunity To COVID-19 Could Last Longer Than You'd Think

This article is encouraging about immunity from vaccination, IMO, although I think it assumes a healthy immune system. As an older person (70s), I'm not sure my immune system is all that great.

Excerpt:
So, how long does immunity last after two doses of the vaccine? Six months or so? And at that point, how much protection is left over?

It all depends on which type of immunity you're talking about, says immunologist Ali Ellebedy at Washington University in St. Louis. Six months after your vaccine, your body may be more ready to fight off the coronavirus than you might think.

"If you were vaccinated six months ago, your immune system has been training for six months — you are better ready to fight a COVID-19 infection," says Ellebedy.

A series of new studies, including two led by Ellebedy, suggests that mRNA vaccines like those from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna trigger the immune system to establish long-term protection against severe COVID-19 — protection that likely will last several years or even longer, Ellebedy says.

(More at link)