Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[Hatfield]

This new virus reminded me of a story my Grandma told me about "Typhoid Mary". I think my Gram would tell us young kids the story to scare us so that we wouldnt go outside without a jacket on to help prevent catching a cold.

If anyone has not heard of Typhoid Mary, below is a good article that summarizes it. In a nutshell, she was a known carrier but showed no symptoms herself and by the time health officials found her (one of the sources of Typhoid) she had spread it to many people.

The Frightening Legacy of Typhoid Mary | History | Smithsonian Magazine

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Update on my neighbors who are self isolating after arrival from China to a city and state on the 20th which has had no cases..

I just took them over two bags of dinner for tonight, Frozen stuff, chocolates, snacks, cheese, crackers, and a game and much other stuff.

They are in great spirits.

His business sent him his computer for work by FedEx and both of them are working from home. I thought they were both retired.

I stood at the front door and they would not open it, but they had a storm door with screens that they slid down to talk to me through it. They were very adamant that they could not open it while I was at the doorstep. They showed me many boxes that they have been sent, but I'm not sure where they are from.

Again, they are my neighbors so I am not asking them any information that of course all of us want to know.

When you are close to it, you just don't ask questions, you just help them.

 

[Hatfield]

Update on my neighbors who are self isolating after arrival from China to a city and state on the 20th which has had no cases..

I just took them over two bags of dinner for tonight, Frozen stuff, chocolates, snacks, cheese, crackers, and a game and much other stuff.

They are in great spirits.

His business sent him his computer for work by FedEx and both of them are working from home. I thought they were both retired.

I stood at the front door and they would not open it, but they had a storm door with screens that they slid down to talk to me through it. They were very adamant that they could not open it while I was at the doorstep. They showed me many boxes that they have been sent, but I'm not sure where they are from.

Again, they are my neighbors so I am not asking them any information that of course all of us want to know.

When you are close to it, you just don't ask questions, you just help them.

Thank you for being such a kind neighbor. And you are so right that as soon as we begin to start to personally know people that are being impacted by this one way or another, then it becomes a whole different angle of looking at things.

Its so frustrating because nobody really wants to quarantine or isolate people but the flipside is people and governments are just trying to minimize the overall impact. Its like a double edged sword.

 

[Taskforce88]

This spreadsheet with prediction forecast is spot on so far:

Analyse prédictive 2019-nCoV

The death toll is going to ramp up.

 

[Inthedetails]

"NYC Team Led by Scientist who Advised on Contagion is Racing to Unlock the Coronavirus"

Interesting article! Here are some tidbits:

"Since the epidemic, the group of between 50 to 60 researchers [in NYC] have been collaborating with their counterparts at Sun Yat-sen University in the Guangzhou region of China."

"[T]he number of deaths from the new coronavirus has now exceeded that of SARS, another flu-like virus that struck China in 2002 and 2003.
But Dr. Mishra said that the important statistic is the mortality rate, which is 2 percent compared to 9.6 percent for SARS."

"The test that Dr. Lipkin's team is developing would allow health officials not only to confirm whether a person has the Wuhan coronavirus, but it would also be able to identify and differentiate between other types of influenza viruses."

"Dr. Mishra applauded [quarantine] as a good public health measure, but warned that those who are self-quarantining should be required to report their condition on a daily basis to health authorities."

More at the link.....including info about science in the movie Contagion.

NYC Team Led By Scientist Who Advised On “Contagion” Is Racing To Unlock The Coronavirus. Here’s What They Told Us

 

[Amonet]

This spreadsheet with prediction forecast is spot on so far:

Analyse prédictive 2019-nCoV

The death toll is going to ramp up.

Without looking at the back side of the spreadsheet, it looks like a simple mathematical progression that they've used?

They need to take epidemiological factors into account. That it's Hubei that has the bulk of the cases and almost certain wild spread. That we don't have definite uncontained wild spread outside of Hubei. The air travel restrictions that many countries have placed between themselves and Hubei all of China. All these things will have an effect on those numbers meaning that imho you can't just do a simple mathematical progression and call it a prediction.

However, it does bring to mind another question: what are they going to do about the quarantine on Hubei? At what point can they reasonably end that quarantine between Hubei and the rest of China?

 

[MajorHoople]

This spreadsheet with prediction forecast is spot on so far:

Analyse prédictive 2019-nCoV

The death toll is going to ramp up.

Taskforce88, am I looking at that spreadsheet properly? I think I see a prediction of 21 million deaths (21,636,746) by April 8, 2020.

Surely that can't be right?

 

[MJPeony]

Gaaah... I've got to stop checking the news on this....
Coronavirus death toll rises to 425 with 64 new fatalities in China's Hubei province

 

[Amonet]

I will make a prediction. I believe the true mortality rate at the moment is closer to half a percent than it is to 2%.

How do I reach that conclusion, you ask?

The 2% rate is got by doing today's death total divided by today's total confirmed cases.

I don't believe that is an accurate way to discern the actual mortality rate as not all cases are being confirmed, plus there's a delay between confirmation of a case and its ultimate outcome.

So if we go back about five days, we have 4586 confirmed cases in Hubei.

That's undercounted, perhaps by a factor of 15.

4586*15 = 68,790

Today's death count total for Hubei is 414

414/68,790 = 0.6% mortality rate

Please correct my math if I've done that wrong!

The next step to check this prediction would be to examine the mortality rate outside of Hubei. And that requires more math, and I don't like doing math, I'm not good at it The numbers outside Hubei are also a little too small at the moment to get a strong number from. Sadly, I do anticipate that will be possible in a week or two, and that will then be a check on the Hubei prediction figure and give us a figure for what happens when you have fewer wild cases outside of official confirmed case figures.

 

[Bravo]

I appreciate you mathematicians. By days end my brain is saturated with information. Much appreciated.

 

[MJPeony]

I will make a prediction. I believe the true mortality rate at the moment is closer to half a percent than it is to 2%.

How do I reach that conclusion, you ask?

The 2% rate is got by doing today's death total divided by today's total confirmed cases.

I don't believe that is an accurate way to discern the actual mortality rate as not all cases are being confirmed, plus there's a delay between confirmation of a case and its ultimate outcome.

So if we go back about five days, we have 4586 confirmed cases in Hubei.

That's undercounted, perhaps by a factor of 15.

4586*15 = 68,790

Today's death count total for Hubei is 414

414/68,790 = 0.6% mortality rate

Please correct my math if I've done that wrong!

The next step to check this prediction would be to examine the mortality rate outside of Hubei. And that requires more math, and I don't like doing math, I'm not good at it The numbers outside Hubei are also a little too small at the moment to get a strong number from. Sadly, I do anticipate that will be possible in a week or two, and that will then be a check on the Hubei prediction figure and give us a figure for what happens when you have fewer wild cases outside of official confirmed case figures.

Thanks for the math. Where did the factor of 15 come from (my brain is also fried)?

 

[Amonet]

Approx cases outside Hubei five days ago (Tuesday 29 Jan)

3036

Today's death count outside Hubei (totals)

12

12/3036 = 0.4%

 

[Amonet]

Thanks for the math. Where did the factor of 15 come from (my brain is also fried)?

Assumption/guesstimate of the multiplier to get the true number of cases including unconfirmed. I've read a lot of figures and the number 15 gave a reasonable number given the predictions of maybe 100,000 that I read a few days ago (but that could have been up to about 200,000 I think), so I felt that using 15 for the multiplier gave a reasonable, or perhaps conservative, estimate.

 

[Inthedetails]

Sorry if this is a repeat - I'm swamped today and can't keep up with reading (until later - I will catch up).

But....

Number of cases is now over 20,000. Vast majority are within China.

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[Hatfield]

Assumption/guesstimate of the multiplier to get the true number of cases including unconfirmed. I've read a lot of figures and the number 15 gave a reasonable number given the predictions of maybe 100,000 that I read a few days ago (but that could have been up to about 200,000 I think, so I felt that using 15 for the multiplier gave a reasonable, or perhaps conservative, estimate.

Thanks for sharing your estimate. I agree the actual number of cases is probably quite a bit higher for many reasons.

The only thing I was wondering is if we are going to assume there are more cases that are out there but not reported as confirmed cases, then shouldnt we also assume the reported death toll is also likely to be higher?

Read a concerning comment toward the very bottom of this article from a random person that claims he/she knows someone else that travels often to the area and as early as last October there were already people talking to them about some sort of "plague" killing people in Wuhan.

NYC Team Led By Scientist Who Advised On “Contagion” Is Racing To Unlock The Coronavirus. Here’s What They Told Us

 

[Amonet]

This article talks about Dr Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist in Wuhan, who warned other doctors about the coronavirus cases before it became public knowledge.

The Chinese doctor who tried to warn about coronavirus

 

[Amonet]

Thanks for sharing your estimate. I agree the actual number of cases is probably quite a bit higher for many reasons.

The only thing I was wondering is if we are going to assume there are more cases that are out there but not reported as confirmed cases, then shouldnt we also assume the reported death toll is also likely to be higher?

Read a concerning comment toward the very bottom of this article from a random person that claims he/she knows someone else that travels often to the area and as early as last October there were already people talking to them about some sort of "plague" killing people in Wuhan.

NYC Team Led By Scientist Who Advised On “Contagion” Is Racing To Unlock The Coronavirus. Here’s What They Told Us

I think the death toll in Hubei is more likely to be closer to the true figure than the confirmed cases are...at least up till recently.

At the moment it sounds like they may have got so overwhelmed that there could be people dying at home, or too soon after arriving in hospital to be tested, so every day that goes by their figures may be less and less reflective of the reality on the ground.

But that would still mean that the Rest Of The World figures are the better figures to go by than the Hubei figures. The 5-day delay figure I picked could be faulty. But that was all examples to show how I'm making my predictions at the moment, and we all have to wait and see what happens as this continues...which it looks like it's going to, and we don't know how/where/when it's going to end

 

[Hatfield]

I think the death toll in Hubei is more likely to be closer to the true figure than the confirmed cases are...at least up till recently.

At the moment it sounds like they may have got so overwhelmed that there could be people dying at home, or too soon after arriving in hospital to be tested, so every day that goes by their figures may be less and less reflective of the reality on the ground.

But that would still mean that the Rest Of The World figures are the better figures to go by than the Hubei figures. The 5-day delay figure I picked could be faulty. But that was all examples to show how I'm making my predictions at the moment, and we all have to wait and see what happens as this continues...which it looks like it's going to, and we don't know how/where/when it's going to end

Great points. And I totally agree that when other countries's numbers start coming in with more figures, then it will help tremendously to be able to see the trends. Because we will be able to compare cases and death rates from multiple sources and then we will be able to get a much better average and assessment on things.

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus may transmit through digestive tract, report finds

“In addition to respiratory droplets, the novel coronavirus that has sickened thousands globally may also transmit through the digestive tract, specifically the fecal-oral route, according to a report.

Scientists from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Science recently discovered “virus genetic material” in stool samples and rectal swabs from some patients, Chinese state media reported, according to Bloomberg.”

—

Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed | Science | AAAS

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CDC Administering Tests for Cornell Student With Coronavirus Symptoms

“A Cornell student presented symptoms that mirror the novel coronavirus strain — which has afflicted over 17,000 people worldwide — Ryan Lombardi, vice president of student and campus life, announced in an email on Monday. It is not confirmed that the student has the novel coronavirus.”

—-

China Cases Top 20,000; U.S. Braces for Pandemic: Virus Update

“Princeton University has ordered 108 recent student visitors to China to isolate themselves as a precaution amid the coronavirus outbreak.”

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NPR:
Coronavirus Cases Have More Than Tripled In Past Week; 20,000 Sickened In China

"”We have an influenza outbreak here," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Friday. "We have about 8,000 deaths already. We have about 100,000 hospitalizations."

But Fauci added that U.S. agencies are watching the coronavirus outbreak closely, because while they can be certain flu cases will go away when the seasons change, there are "a lot of unknowns" about the new virus. And he added that evidence of people being infected but not showing symptoms "would make it a much broader outbreak than what we're seeing."”

—-

Tents set up as a coronavirus precaution at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County – Press Enterprise

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Aggressive action necessary to counter the 'unprecedented threat' of coronavirus, CDC says
The U.S. plans to evacuate more American citizens from the epicenter of the outbreak in the coming days.

“Currently, the CDC headquarters in Atlanta is the only place in the country with a test for the new coronavirus. That means lab results take at least 24 to 36 hours, including the time it takes to send samples overnight to Atlanta, plus four to six hours to perform the actual test.

On Monday, the CDC said it planned to submit the diagnostics to the Food and Drug Administration for approval of the test under "emergency use authorization." That action hastens the approval process for potentially lifesaving medical or diagnostic products during public health emergencies, the CDC said.“

[...]

“The CDC called the outbreak in China "explosive" and "unprecedented."

"We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a call with journalists Monday.”

 

[Amonet]

Something I would like to know is...say someone traveled back from China to the UK and got a very mild cold and never got tested, but they passed it onto someone else who also had a very light cold, who passed it on etc...and then the tenth or twentieth person in this chain has more serious symptoms and goes to hospital. Would the hospital be likely to be able to tell they have a patient with the new coronavirus and isolate just in case and send off for testing? The tenth or twentieth person would say, "no, I haven't traveled to China or anywhere else, and I don't know anyone who has" when they're asked by the medical staff checking to see if they could be a suspected case. Has anyone seen an answer to this in the papers? For any country, not just the UK.