Coronavirus - Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #3

[Amonet]

I keep hearing or reading people saying that this is less deadly than the flu. Where is that coming from? I'd heard it was 2% death rate with CV. But today I read that the death rate in Wuhan was actually closer to 4% which is where the majority of cases are. But I'd also heard flu was .10%

My biggest concern is that I've heard that the percentage of people needing "intensive" care is around 25%. Then today I heard the WHO talk on this and they said 15% are in severe shape and 3% critical.

Does anyone have any idea how that compares to the flu? I'm skeptical about our flu stats and how they come up with them since hearing they don't actually count each adult with the flu but basically lump all respiratory illness together as a flu death if the patient dies. But I sure as heck have never seen 18-25% of the people I know need hospitalization for the flu let alone breathing assistance and I believe they also specified ECMO in that talk. That is a crazy high percentage of people being seriously or critically ill.

Also, if it's really no worse than the flu then why are they requiring masses more medical care/hospitals/quarantine camps? I'm sure China deals with the flu in the winter as well.

I'm just not buying the, "It's no different than the flu. But we need to prevent anyone from China coming over here and quarantine every citizen who does manage to come back here." If this many people were actually getting this sick and dying at this rate from the flu then why the heck aren't we closing down borders every winter? The messages are just so mixed. "It's fine. Don't panic. Let the government panic for you."

It's very hard to have a firm idea of the mortality rate at the moment. Hubei, having greater numbers of confirmed infected would, in the normal way, be the best source for numbers. But, it's strongly believed that ever since we became aware of the new coronavirus in Hubei that the confirmed cases was the tip of the iceberg, with the majority of cases thinking they had the flu, or not being sick enough to go for testing. Then some hospitals there seem to have got so overwhelmed with really sick patients that they couldn't test everyone who wanted to be tested.

There's a lag that needs to be taken into account when considering the mortality rate. The date of confirmation is likely to be X days before death occurs. So on the day that person got infected, there were fewer cases than there are on the day of their death. So you'd ideally need the final figures from an outbreak that's ended, so that you can do deaths/total cases, or you'd need to average out the time from infection to death and go back to the total infections on that day and do today's total deaths over that number.

The total cases outside China should give better estimates while there's still few people outside of known contacts coming down with it. But there aren't really enough cases outside China to estimate the mortality rate, especially if you have to go back five or ten or fifteen days to get to the average date when the person dying today was actually infected.

Hospitals normally try to match bed numbers/doctor/nurse numbers to the average number of patients per year. Add an unexpected 10,000 patients a month to a single city, and the resources aren't in place.

China is hoping to reopen Hubei from quarantine asap, but they're as aware as we are that there are a lot of infected people there who haven't been counted in official confirmed case figures. Not only do they need to open the quarantine of the province, they also need people to be able to get back to work, school, etc. People need to work to pay the bills, the factories need to be making products for sale at home and abroad. But at the same time they don't want the virus to spread. The number of cases they currently have has caused a number of nations to stop flights to/from China.... If they were to just reopen Hubei for business and remove the quarantine then they'd start seeing far more cases in other cities and provinces in China, and how are the flight bans going to get removed if that happens? Plus, then more cities might end up with more cases than their hospitals can cope with. There's a shortage of masks, gloves, etc.

So the Chinese way is to take the hard line, knock on doors and forcibly take people into quarantine centers. We might not agree with it or like it, but I believe they're trying to do it for the public good, to try and prevent more people getting infected and reduce the R0 rate.

 

[Medstudies]

I don't think so either. People warehoused in arenas and other large facilities are not regularly monitored and there are no oxygen machines and other health needs, such as curtains between patients.

There iss fear that the virus will mutate and they will all become more ill. If it's a death ward, it's easier to clear out. I wonder how many people will emerge "recovered" from the facilities.

We won't know for another two weeks.

Absolutely. - sadly - these facilities don’t even come close to a MASH unit. These are at best - detention camps.

Hmm where’s the nearest biohazard waste facilities/crematorium?

 

[Amonet]

Love their English stiff upper lip. However, concerned that the guy they've been hanging out with has gone to hospital.

I feel bad for the new wife of the couple's friend who tested positive, too Not quite the honeymoon they planned. I think he was interviewed before his results came back and he was sure he wouldn't have it as they'd mostly hanging around with the same few people, including the man and his wife making those videos.

 

[Amonet]

I don't think so either. People warehoused in arenas and other large facilities are not regularly monitored and there are no oxygen machines and other health needs, such as curtains between patients.

There iss fear that the virus will mutate and they will all become more ill. If it's a death ward, it's easier to clear out. I wonder how many people will emerge "recovered" from the facilities.

We won't know for another two weeks.

Surely it's intended more as a quarantine zone, to keep the infected from infecting their families, and if they came down with respiratory problems they'd then be transferred to one of the proper hospitals for treatment?

 

[Wicked Strong]

Please forgive me, I've not read all your posts. I have read that the virus seemed to be attacking the Asian community. Does anyone know if it's also been confirmed to be in other nationalities? I'm in no way being racist, I am wondering if this strain is more prevalent in certain ethnic groups, as sickle cell seems to be more prevalent in dark skinned people.

 

[Inthedetails]

Please forgive me, I've not read all your posts. I have read that the virus seemed to be attacking the Asian community. Does anyone know if it's also been confirmed to be in other nationalities? I'm in no way being racist, I am wondering if this strain is more prevalent in certain ethnic groups, as sickle cell seems to be more prevalent in dark skinned people.

The virus originated in China.

 

[KALI]

Well no actually. The woman who posted this video, acknowledged that she was sick, and that as far as she could see around a large room, everyone else was sick.
No hot water to sanitize your hands, no medicine and an outside bathroom very far away.
What is concerning to me, is that these "(supposed hospitals are not hospitals at all).
Sounds great eh? China builds two large hospitals within days!

Except. They are obviously, NOT hospitals. They are internment camps.
Admitted on the videos by a leader, this is not a hospital!
You come here, you cannot leave!
That's the description of a government interment camp, to a "T".

Surely it's intended more as a quarantine zone, to keep the infected from infecting their families, and if they came down with respiratory problems they'd then be transferred to one of the proper hospitals for treatment?

 

[margarita25]

My friend and her wife were planning on adopting a baby girl from China. I wonder how that’s going to work out now.

 

[mickey2942]

Well no actually. The woman who posted this video, acknowledged that she was sick, and that as far as she could see around a large room, everyone else was sick.
No hot water to sanitize your hands, no medicine and an outside bathroom very far away.
What is concerning to me, is that these "(supposed hospitals are not hospitals at all).
Sounds great eh? China builds two large hospitals within days!

Except. They are obviously, NOT hospitals. They are internment camps.
Admitted on the videos by a leader, this is not a hospital!
You come here, you cannot leave!
That's the description of a government interment camp, to a "T".

Sounds like a warehouse to die in. You can go in, but you can't get out.

 

[dotr]

My friend and her wife were planning on adopting a baby girl from China. I wonder how that’s going to work out now.

Coronavirus Outbreak Puts Halt To US Adoptions Of Chinese Children
Feb 6 2020
''The 3-year-old girl from China was set to be welcomed into her new home on Feb. 21, ending an arduous two-year adoption process for parents Ivy and Noah Cleveland. Then the deadly coronavirus outbreak put a sudden stop to the family’s plan to travel to China and bring Ruby home.

The Cleveland family, like many others in the US who had planned to fly to China and complete the adoption process in January and February, are now grappling with the heartbreak of not knowing how long it will be until they meet their new sons and daughters and bring them home.

“Just knowing that you have a child out in the world that you can’t get to," Ivy Cleveland, 30, told BuzzFeed News. "It’s devastating,”

Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus outbreak brings adoption process to standstill for Byron mom
While she waits across the world for her son, she can’t help but worry about the virus spreading to the orphanage.

"I feel like they're doing everything they can but of course as his mother I'm going to worry about it. He should be here with me and I should be taking care of him, but there's nothing we can do about it right now,” she said.

There’s no telling when she’ll be able to see him.

"The end was just right there and then it was just gone,” she said.

Though she’s heartbroken, she is prepared to wait as long as she needs to, in order to meet Noah and bring him home.

Lawson spoke to officials from her adoption agency Monday night. She said they told her that coronavirus has not gotten into the orphanage and that they are limiting staff and visitors to prevent the spread of the disease.''

 

[beatrixpotter]

So back to the “hospitals” -

MOO- I suspect China is playing loose - and is or will be using these patients to test various medications/treatment that are currently under development.

So I just want to point out the Nuremberg Code- part of it which reads: “During the course of the experiment the human subject should be at liberty to bring the experiment to an end if he has reached the physical or mental state where continuation of the experiment seems to him to be impossible.”


- I don’t really think these patients are freely choosing to be confined, or to receive treatment...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199711133372006

One of the videos translated the man telling the people that once they entered the quarantine building they were NOT allowed to leave. He made it sound like it was optional to enter. But I think it was filmed before they publicly made the decision to quarantine all who were sick.

 

[beatrixpotter]

Several things worry me about the flu. One is the risk that it could take a turn for the worst as I have asthma. Another is the memory of having flu as a child and not even having the strength in my muscles to get to the bathroom unaided...how do you take care of yourself when you're in that state? Okay, more than those things worry me about it, but I am a natural worrywort. In fact, I'm just like Mr Worry, cos if I didn't have anything to worry about, I'd really worry!

Ugh, yes, I'm terrified of the flu. I get rapid drops in electrolytes and become frighteningly weak. My breathing slows. It truly terrifies me how to handle any serious illness since this started for me. I read about one man's experience with the CV and he talked about being so weak for days he could only eat because his sister would lift his head and hold the straw for him. He said other people who were elderly basically got no help because no one was with them to help him. It was the experience of weakness he talked about that really got me. It's a huge anxiety trigger for me...

 

[Amonet]

Please forgive me, I've not read all your posts. I have read that the virus seemed to be attacking the Asian community. Does anyone know if it's also been confirmed to be in other nationalities? I'm in no way being racist, I am wondering if this strain is more prevalent in certain ethnic groups, as sickle cell seems to be more prevalent in dark skinned people.

I think all we know for sure right now is that the virus originated in China, therefore at the moment most people infected are Chinese.

Other nationalities/races/ethnicities are getting infected though. It's not like you mean with sickle cell, no.

 

[beatrixpotter]

So the Chinese way is to take the hard line, knock on doors and forcibly take people into quarantine centers. We might not agree with it or like it, but I believe they're trying to do it for the public good, to try and prevent more people getting infected and reduce the R0 rate.

You are for more generous than me in your presumptions of the motives of the Chinese government. They have a history of killing their own people, locking them up in camps etc. I've heard Chinese people express the belief in videos that the government is trying to make it worse by forcing them in quarantine together. My Chinese American friend with friends and family currently quarantined also believes their intentions are bad.

That said it's really hard for me personally to believe in that kind of malevolence. But I can't discount the experience and beliefs of the Chinese people regarding their own government either. :/ JMOO

 

[beatrixpotter]

Please forgive me, I've not read all your posts. I have read that the virus seemed to be attacking the Asian community. Does anyone know if it's also been confirmed to be in other nationalities? I'm in no way being racist, I am wondering if this strain is more prevalent in certain ethnic groups, as sickle cell seems to be more prevalent in dark skinned people.

I read something about Angiotensin-converting enzyme/ACE in relation to Coronavirus and race and susceptibility. But I didn't understand it enough or can't remember what I did read. Try googling that in relation to CV?

 

[Tadpole12]

Ty dotr.

 

[margarita25]

@JerseyGirl, this sounds like the British couple I was referencing earlier:

Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2


ETA: I see you found them

Video from 2 days ago of the couple on the Princess cruise ship docked in Japan:

and an update just posted 8 hours ago:

 

[dotr]

I read something about Angiotensin-converting enzyme/ACE in relation to Coronavirus and race and susceptibility. But I didn't understand it enough or can't remember what I did read. Try googling that in relation to CV?

rbbm
Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov
''A novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December of 2019. This new coronavirus has resulted in thousands of cases of lethal disease in China, with additional patients being identified in a rapidly growing number internationally. 2019-nCov was reported to share the same receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), with SARS-Cov. Here based on the public database and the state-of-the-art single-cell RNA-Seq technique, we analyzed the ACE2 RNA expression profile in the normal human lungs. The result indicates that the ACE2 virus receptor expression is concentrated in a small population of type II alveolar cells (AT2).

''Surprisingly, we found that this population of ACE2-expressing AT2 also highly expressed many other genes that positively regulating viral reproduction and transmission. A comparison between eight individual samples demonstrated that the Asian male one has an extremely large number of ACE2-expressing cells in the lung. This study provides a biological background for the epidemic investigation of the 2019-nCov infection disease, and could be informative for future anti-ACE2 therapeutic strategy development.''

 

[gregjrichards]

Is coronavirus ten times WORSE than feared? Scientist warns only a small number of hard-to-spot cases are being identified by medics

But scientists warned the rapid spread of the virus across borders, coupled with its suspected two-week incubation period and the unreliability of testing methods, made it difficult to track.

Is coronavirus ten times WORSE than feared? | Daily Mail Online

I wish there was good news to post about this horrendous crisis it seems to get worse and worse.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

RSBM
Admitted on the videos by a leader, this is not a hospital!
You come here, you cannot leave!
That's the description of a government interment camp, to a "T".

Yes, and that's exactly what the person was told by an official on the base camp in the United States when he tried to walk off also per MSM reports. They cannot leave either within 14 days MOO