Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV

[Bravo]

Finally I got some info for our Hospital. 2 step screening before entering Emerg. Anybody with respiratory or flu like symptoms puts on a mask and uses hand sanitizer. Oh and asked about travel. I guess that's about all they can do at this point.

 

[Bravo]

Stranded, stressed — desperate. Canadians in Wuhan wait to hear if they’ll be on a coronavirus evacuation flight | The Star
Why is Canada still waiting for permission from the Chinese Government? Other Countries have been allowed to fly folks out?

 

[sloane7777]

I've never ever heard that. I've only heard it was a natural (or unatural) jump from animals when investigated. Do you have a link that "it got out of the lab like SARS"? TIA as I think this may be misinterpretation of something.

just a theory that I keep hearing
and find suspicious
Wuhan coronavirus: China was warned in 2017 that a deadly virus could escape its level 4 biohazard lab
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics

/real-umbrella-corp-wuhan-ultra-biohazard-lab-was-studying-worlds-most-dangerous-pathogens

 

[Curiousobserver]

It's the mortality rate in other places than Hubei that I think will have more information in them, especially those outside China that we can be more sure of the ring containment methods being used.

In Hubei the actual mortality rate is probably something like:

number of deaths /confirmed infections approx one week ago * a multiplier to account for those who were infected a week ago but haven't presented to a hospital for confirmatory tests

So that's about:
162/(500 * the unknown multiplier), which could be five, ten, twenty...who knows.

I'm not very good at math, but I think that's the right formula above with the brackets?

The other part of the multiplier are the number of cases who recovered on their own weeks ago before the virus was widely known. This can be quite large especially early on when there is no rapid test available. This results in the initial mortality rate being even more overestimated.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

just a theory that I keep hearing
and find suspicious
Wuhan coronavirus: China was warned in 2017 that a deadly virus could escape its level 4 biohazard lab
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics

/real-umbrella-corp-wuhan-ultra-biohazard-lab-was-studying-worlds-most-dangerous-pathogens

Gotcha, thanks for taking the time to reply Sloane.

It was from a probable "lab accident" where two lab workers that got infected with SARS during the outbreak/research phase, and that lab was closed. Yes, always a possibility that folks in healthcare can get infected accidentally with something they are working on if they aren't following protocol/safety for the level needed. They were growing/working with an existing virus, and never that it was a source which "causes" a novel disease that was never in humans before. Much more dramatic to say "virus escaped lab" (a la Daily Mail headlines that they are so well known for) vs. workers didn't follow protocols and got infected perhaps?

SARS escaped Beijing lab twice

 

[Hatfield]

I'm just praying they are able to make a vaccine sooner rather than later.

Me too.
I have a few questions if anyone knows.

Once they develop a vaccine.....

Is a vaccine the type of medicine that one must take in advance as a precaution and would prevent the person from ever catching it ever in the future?

Does a vaccine help people that are already diagnosed with the Coronavirus or is it too late for those affected to take the vaccine?

I think where I was headed with these questions is even if a vaccine is created, if every single person does not get the vaccine, then does that mean that this Coronavirus could still spread to people that dont get immunized?

Similar to how people are still getting Measles because some people refuse or dont have access to get the Measles vaccine like in 3rd worlds countries with not much medical support or medicines.

 

[Bravo]

Coronavirus Spreads, and the World Pays for China’s Dictatorship

 

[Curiousobserver]

Me too.
I have a few questions if anyone knows.

Once they develop a vaccine.....

Is a vaccine the type of medicine that one must take in advance as a precaution and would prevent the person from ever catching it ever in the future?

Does a vaccine help people that are already diagnosed with the Coronavirus or is it too late for those affected to take the vaccine?

I think where I was headed with these questions is even if a vaccine is created, if every single person does not get the vaccine, then does that mean that this Coronavirus could still spread to people that dont get immunized?
Similar to how people are still getting Measles because some people refuse or dont have access to get the Measles vaccine like in 3rd worlds countries with not much medical support or medicines.

Vaccines typically prevent and when they don't they lessen the impact of a disease. They vary in effectiveness at doing both those things.

Some vaccines are effective even if you are already infected- rabies vaccine is given after infection (along with anti-rabies antibodies as an example)

Once you reach a certain threshold in terms of the number of people vaccinated, the chance an infected person will run into a non-vaccinated person become so low that the spread effectively stops, so no, not everyone needs to be vaccinated.

 

[Bravo]

Excellent questions Hatfield. Not sure either what a vaccine is going to look like. If I had to guess I would think as a preventative???

 

[dotr]

Ontario health officials to hold media briefing on response to coronavirus - Sudbury.com

@Bravoiirc this is your province?

Public health officials in Ontario will hold a media briefing to provide updates on the province's ongoing response to the new coronavirus.

Dr. David Williams, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health and Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Medical Officer of Health are scheduled to talk to the media at 10:30 a.m. today.

Thanks! live starting soon.

January 30, 10:30 AM
Coronavirus outbreak: Canadian health officials provide update on response efforts | LIVE

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Me too.
I have a few questions if anyone knows.

Once they develop a vaccine.....

Is a vaccine the type of medicine that one must take in advance as a precaution and would prevent the person from ever catching it ever in the future?

Does a vaccine help people that are already diagnosed with the Coronavirus or is it too late for those affected to take the vaccine?

I think where I was headed with these questions is even if a vaccine is created, if every single person does not get the vaccine, then does that mean that this Coronavirus could still spread to people that dont get immunized?

Similar to how people are still getting Measles because some people refuse or dont have access to get the Measles vaccine like in 3rd worlds countries with not much medical support or medicines.

The CDC and others have said priorities are #1 to get a lab test to ID (done, although they are working on increasing sensitivity and specificity for the test and then being ramped up to distribute) #2 to get treatments for it (in progress and some have said possibly try the treatments for similar viruses first, then implant genomes to get more specific longer term) and #3 vaccine.

To answer your questions MOO

1) Yes, vaccines by definition must be prior to infection to build up antibodies to prevent exposure turning into infection.
2) Yep, similar to measles (and flu!) in that it diminishes transmission if a larger percentage is vaccinated, so less person to person. That is why so many upset that some folks resist measles vaccine, and then there are outbreaks that kill children and others who are too young for vaccine, or immunocompromised as they cannot have the needed immune response to the vaccine. there is another thread here at WS that goes into such.

 

[Hatfield]

Vaccines typically prevent and when they don't they lessen the impact of a disease. They vary in effectiveness at doing both those things.

Some vaccines are effective even if you are already infected- rabies vaccine is given after infection (along with anti-rabies antibodies as an example)

Once you reach a certain threshold in terms of the number of people vaccinated, the chance an infected person will run into a non-vaccinated person become so low that the spread effectively stops, so no, not everyone needs to be vaccinated.

Thanks Curiousobserver and Bravo and Dixiegirl.

I can see now why there is such a rush to create a vaccine. I am sure most people would gladly accept the vaccine especially if they are located in the "hot zones" where catching it would be of a real concern.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Watching live the Ontario presser, I'll update this post within the next 60 minutes with info that is new to us here. I'll type/post/update

No deaths outside China.
2 confirmed in Ontario, one is BC
Increase in numbers in China is more due to testing that they didn't have before... now doing 300-500 / day vs. much less they tested before
Difficult to determine if older folks died by comorbidity vs. virus...virus contributed to many due to other diseases they had
67 test performed by Canada, 38 negative, 27 pending, 2 positive
First case in hospital, second at home
Public health in contact of folks within 2-3 meters on plane and being contacted daily
Two cases were wearing masks during flight
Some more than 2-3 meters folks have reached out to health folks, which is good as shows education among folks
Case definition is now the whole ?? Provence not just Wuhan (where folks traveled from)
Case screening now includes coughs
We are meeting twice daily or daily
RE repatriation...........
we are looking at how to do, all needs to be mapped out, more info today
RE transmissability
Measeles is 18-20 r0... not definitively known, not much different than flu. We may find young folks that get cough and didn't know they were transmitting. We have to be informed and get better numbers than that.
Close contact is not passing by, its more like family where close long
Asymptomatic, looking at Germany etc... they think more with cough and fever is their case definition.
The only person to person so far is family
He speaks strongly to racial profiling (huh???????????????????) He states only folks traveling from that area
re masks, but if folks want to ok. I would discourage commentary on that due to visual issue (??????? I guess he's trying to address fear from folks wearing them)

 

[JerseyGirl]

So WHO is meeting today regarding whether or not to declare this an emergency at 1:30pm Eastern = 1830 GMT?

Factbox: What to watch from the WHO statement on the new coronavirus

Following are things to watch for from a statement and news conference scheduled from 7.30 pm local (1830 GMT):

- Declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern - known as a “PHEIC” in WHO jargon - is rare. Only five have been declared in the past decade: the H1 virus that caused an influenza pandemic (2009), West Africa’s Ebola outbreak, polio (2014), Zika virus (2016), and the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2019).

- Declaration of a global emergency would include recommendations to all countries aimed at preventing or reducing cross-border spread of disease while avoiding unnecessary interference with trade and travel.

- It would include temporary recommendations for national health authorities worldwide, which could include stepping up their monitoring, preparedness and containment measures.

- Although the WHO has no legal authority to sanction countries, it could ask governments to provide scientific justification for any travel or trade restrictions that they impose in the event of an international emergency.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Q&A starts... I'll update

Q. Re person to person testing
A. Folks that meet history of being in area or in contact with known case.. so far.. those proximal on plane no reports. Local health will follow up.
Q. Did original person ever go to work
A. No
Q,
A. 24-46 hours the test takes (CDC says theirs takes 4 hours???????????)
Q.
A. Some folks tested are having other seasonal viruses
Q.
A. The only we have found are the couple who came from the area
Q.
A. the system is working, individuals are self reporting. still the early days
Q. I remember sars, when elderly woman died and 81 cases affected by them.. is that the key that folks are educated
A. I agree, viruses spread and informed is better. Folks are better educated and so much different than then, you cannot compare to 2003. They are going full tilt and hard to compare. The way that hospitals and health care is now, asking travel history and isolating immediatley is differnt. And we didn't have lab tests with SARS
Q
A Some folks on plane are being monitored.
Q.
A. Every person that is under investigation MUST have been flight related per definition at this time for our stats
Q Who makes decision on quarantine protocol
A It's a federal jurisdiction decision. We would look at logistics, is there going to be sent to ? etc etc... Are they ill, are they asymptomatic..all the territories will agree as collaborative action led by federal govm't
Q Would it spread in subway potentially, is that how it is spreading in China
A Get back to most important measure is handwashing. Don't touch your face afterwards (e.d. reason for facemask) If you sneeze put in elbow not hands, don't go to work. There are basic things. Get your flu shot (e.d. so health care has less similar stuff to rule out?)
Q Air Canada has stopped Beging and Shanghai. Why
A I don't know, health canada would be who to ask. I don't know how they did that, I assume we'll be told
Q Does masks have any role. Is advice that masks don't prevent?
A. If someone has to go out and is coughing or symptomatic, mask can help. As to health care worker, they wear differnt ones. In general, if you are feeling well, doesn't do anything it gives a false sense of security. some cultures it is done but will not help. In ER etc, you change them often and not wear all day. You have to be fit tested. If done all day on/off, not functional
Q. Where are the persons under investigation
A. We are not going into that at this time (???????????????huh)
Q. Why are different for asymptomatic as to follow/etc
A. We are waiting for health Canada, we are doing evidence based. We are asking WHO for actual case information to determine
Q
A. Let's say someone picks it ups, and incubates, and then they become symptomatic. At that time we do PCR and picks up the virus. What we are finding that some folks are young and get it and recover. They carry but may not be transmissable. They recover and have short lived infection.
Q
A
Q When do you broaden out.
A. We only investigate those on flights, so far we have not found others.
THE END

 

[Bravo]

It will be interesting to see what WHO says later today

 

[Tadpole12]

Thank you for the notes on Ontario presser, dixiegirl.

 

[Tadpole12]

I reside in Ontario,
My mom's PSWs (personal service worker, health care) are not concerned at this point in time.
Every Feb March the nursing homes in my area go under quarantine for respiratory infection,
and the PSWs work both in the nursing homes and provide community care.
I'm required to report if anyone in my home has a fever.

I guess my minor concern would be wrt the hoarding of supplies.
I just purchased a box of 100 gloves, and will try to by more if available.
I need them not for the pandemic? But for my Mom's basic care.

 

[Inthedetails]

This situation is becoming a mass hysteria. Is closing the border with China really going to make people in Russia any safer?

There are currently ZERO diagnosed cases in Russia - so it could be that precautions are working and/or there isn't much threat to Russia right now anyway.

Looking at the most recent diagnoses (so far today), the vast majority are within China itself.

The first case in India was reported today.


Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[Trino]

Go online has story about 7000 detained on a cruise ship whil two are tested.

Are you serious? OMG.