FL FL - AMBER ALERT: Diana Alvares, 9, Fort Myers, 29 May 2016 #3

[carbuff]

I don't think it was trafficking and I don't think it was just JTG.

 

[Paulas88]

The first time the LE brought in JG for questioning, did he have his phone? Or, had he already tossed it?

 

[WillenFan21]

I don't think it was trafficking and I don't think it was just JTG.

Agreed. I don't think it was trafficking either, I think it was all him. Especially if the girl in the photos on his phone are of Diana because that proves its been going on for months.

 

[mpnola]

Just curious who thinks trafficking or JGT himself?


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Good question!! I swear, I go from 100% one to 100% the other several times a day.

Well, let me say that even if it was not trafficking and it was Jorge just being a pervert, I think someone else was involved or became involved, at some point. I think someone knows something, at minimum.

 

[theirmommy]

http://www.winknews.com/2016/06/10/...issing-9-year-old-person-of-interest-in-case/
"SAN CARLOS PARK, Fla. — The ex-girlfriend of a person of interest in the case of a missing San Carlos Park girl tells WINK News she observed several disturbing clues that Jorge Guerrero and Diana Alvarez had an inappropriate relationship....."

It's a WINK article, who knows how much one should believe though considering the source.

Just trying to catch up on news. Haven't been online all day. Was hoping for good news.

 

[tlcya]

i don't think think trafficking. I think personal victim. I think he invested a lot of time and effort into this and he got booted and was angry. I think he decided all that effort . . . That is JMO right now :fence: I may feel completely differently tomorrow. I only know this child just turned 9 years. I know she is gone. I know her mother must be beside herself. I know I want her found :cry:

 

[margarita25]

How many minutes/miles from the time they left the home do you guys think it might be to the time of when JG would do his presumed disgusting evil deeds?

Eta: What are the stats on this?

 

[FindingTheMissing]

The first time the LE brought in JG for questioning, did he have his phone? Or, had he already tossed it?

I clearly remember reading early on that LE called him and his brother and they came in for questioning. Can't recall what day but I am positive it was before the AA. But I cannot for the life of me find the link. I'm going to take a look through thread 1 and see if it is mentioned there.

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[FindingTheMissing]

Jimenez said he's run over every scenario and every person his stepdaughter encountered prior to her disappearance.

He's particularly concerned about a recent roommate who was a little too close for comfort.

"They tell him they need to speak with him, that he needs to come to Fort Myers sheriff's office," Jimenez said. "But I have no news. I don't know if he go or don't go."
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/32091122/...9

bbm

Found this from June 1st. Maybe that's what I remember reading... that LE had made contact and told him to come in. I'm assuming they called him? If so he clearly had his phone until at least June 1st.

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[katydid23]

How many minutes/miles from the time they left the home do you guys think it might be to the time of when JG would do his presumed disgusting evil deeds?

Eta: What are the stats on this?

I think the stats say that in sexual predator kidnappings, the victim is usually dead within three hours of the kidnapping. :sigh:

She may have been dead and disposed of before they even knew she was gone....

 

[Rayemonde]

I think the stats say that in sexual predator kidnappings, the victim is usually dead within three hours of the kidnapping. :sigh:

She may have been dead and disposed of before they even knew she was gone....

I think the stats say that *when an abducted child is murdered*, they are usually murdered within a short time. But most abducted children are *not* murdered.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Gngcs-5SfgYNB6_IA&sig2=sUYwz0RLrUOo_T_hHf37og

From link: in a study of 58,200 children abducted by non-family members, 99% of children were found alive.

In a study of 115 children abducted by strangers in a "stereotypical" kidnapping, 57% were found alive.

 

[JLSChook]

Where's Diana?!?!

 

[LookingForClues]

I think the stats say that *when an abducted child is murdered*, they are usually murdered within a short time. But most abducted children are *not* murdered.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Gngcs-5SfgYNB6_IA&sig2=sUYwz0RLrUOo_T_hHf37og

From link: in a study of 58,200 children abducted by non-family members, 99% of children were found alive.

In a study of 115 children abducted by strangers in a "stereotypical" kidnapping, 57% were found alive.

Thanks for this study. It's quite interesting. However, when I read it, I saw that this is based on information gathered for 1997-1999. That's pretty old data. Also, the researchers note in the beginning that there are many factors to consider that make this data unreliable. So, out of curiosity, I searched for the most recent data and discovered that this info is still used, despite its limitations and that it is almost 20 years out of date. I did find this interesting Fact Checker article about these statistics in the Washington Post ( March 2015 article):

58,000 children 'abducted' a year: another fishy statistic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/03/17/58000-children-abducted-a-year-yet-another-fishy-statistic/

The article points out many instances of how this number is misused, as well as other problems with the research. One of the main problems is this is from a phone survey, not actual crime statistics. The survey was responded to by 16,111 adults and 5,015 youths, then their responses were weighted based on US Census data. Even one of the authors of the study says he doesn't use the information because he doesn't think it's reliable.

The reporter also makes a very good point that it’s difficult to apply this research to today because it's before cell phones and Amber Alerts, and the increased awareness of child abductions. Apparently a new, more rigorous study is being done, but it hasn't been released yet, even though it was supposed to be released in 2015.

It will be interesting to see the new data. It is also a reminder that not all studies are created equal, you can interpret data in many ways, and even with the best intentions, people are people and they can misinterpret data and spread that misinformation without meaning to.

When I have more time, I think I'll see what data I can find that is more current and also based on actual crime statistics.

 

[mpnola]

Exactly, not all abductions are created equally, either. An abduction like Cherish, abducted by a stranger from WalMart seems like it would have much more grim outcome than someone like Carlie Trent, who was abducted by her uncle. And, indeed, the outcomes were different. Diana was taken by someone they describe "like a family member". I am actually not very hopeful she is alive anymore, but I also don't think that her statistic would be one that would necessarily be quickly killed, either. That statistic has been floating around here like a definite, but it is hard to pinpoint all of the factors in an abduction. This would almost be more like a family member abduction than a stranger abduction.

I don't really care about statistics, because when there is 75% one way, that means 25% end the other. You never know what side of that line a person will fall until its over. I just want her found. I think it is time to start putting pressure on those that were close to Jorge. Its time for them to realize that not telling what they know will land them in a cell, just the same. Its time for this to be over and whatever healing needs to happen begin.

 

[Rayemonde]

Stranger abductions are so rare that you can't get meaningful statistics from them anyway as the sample size is too small...

 

[wgram]

:websleuther:Where is precious Diana.... he needs to tell what he did to her.

 

[Rayemonde]

LE must be grilling him... Hopefully he will speak up. It's still possible he has her stashed alive somewhere... I can't imagine what her parents are going through

 

[Floridagirl1006]

The oddest thing about this case is the pan of oil on the stove. The stepdad said mom found all the burners on (maybe just a translation loss) but first why turn all the burners on? And why oil in a pan? It takes a pretty long time for oil to get to a boiling point and actually cause a fire and if there were not combustible materials close the fire would be contained to the pan. It did not sound like the mom woke up to a fire just oil in a pan; burners on. Was the oil boiling? Was it on fire? Or not? This would give a good timeline to when the oil was actually placed on the stove. He had to have been in the home. I have a 10 y/o who could not pull this off alone unless she was already shown how to do it. And where was the oil from? Was there a pan not washed the night before? Did someone go into the cabinet and get oil? All very odd.

 

[tlcya]

re oil left on a stove.

This is not uncommon IMO. People that cook a lot with grease/oil do not empty the pan of oil after each use. They reuse that pot of oil several times over. My gramma would do the same with bacon grease. It would sit there after breakfast and she may use a bit of it when cooking dinner rather than using oil. the grease is already there, why waste it, was the philosophy.

 

[Floridagirl1006]

I can appreciate that although I always use new. BUT....how long was it there for with flame? I'm sure investigators know. That can change the timeline significantly and can determine the possible time someone left the house. Not likely a 9 y/o is inclined to set her family on fire. (Although I would not be shocked). He was only in the area for a 3-4 hour period of time before he left for Okechobee. Seems likely after several hours of a pan of oil being hot that it would have been boiling or something(never mentioned) unless the pan was placed under flame much later than when he was actually in the area.