Hi all - first time poster, long time reader. Thank you for your discussion on this strange case. It certainly captivated me and I’ve enjoyed many of your deep dives, especially the words of the hikers.
Please tell me where I’m off-base. To me, what is most fascinating and perhaps disturbing are the last few months of his life from when the last photo of him was taken, on March 17, 2018, to when he was found, four months later. Something has gone terribly wrong during these months. If we apply some logic, as far as I can tell, there are three possible conclusions that we could reach:
1) He continued hiking southbound. This seems the least plausible to me, as also mentioned by Narkj and Vespertine, as the Keys are highly populated, there’s only one main road in and out that he’d have to navigate, and there almost certainly would have been sightings. Vespertine also stated that “Mike” said that he did not show up on any trail cameras south of where he was found (where did this information come from? sorry if I missed it). Also: there were fires in the area.
Furthermore: he would doubtlessly be noticed by a hiker, or just another human, if he was approaching that incredibly low weight. If we look at the March 17, 2018 photo, to me, taking into account that photos aren’t always a good gauge, I would still say that if he was 5' 8" he would still be around 130 pounds in that photo. “Hiker skinny” as someone stated. That would mean that between mid-March and mid-July, he lost around 50 pounds of body weight. This would be noticeable.
2) He was living in the park (as the NAMUS info suggests). This is plausible to me. However, if this is indeed the case, it opens up a number of problematic questions.
Why on earth live at a campsite so far away from a re-supply area for food? If he were camped there, he would have had to eventually re-supply with long hikes in and out, and again, he probably would be noticed. Especially if he were approaching that dangerously unhealthy weight.
The Everglades in July is an incredibly inhospitable area to set-up shop for a couple of months, with 90-degree heat and humidity and regular brutal thunderstorms. He was in a tent, doing…nothing? Writing Screeps code as he wasted away? Again, it doesn’t seem logical unless you allow for the fact that something was going on, physically or psychologically, or both.
I believe he would have eventually noticed his own wasting condition and could not pass it off as hiking weight loss. His clothes would not fit - at that weight, his lime green shorts would have just fallen off his body. He would have been weak, exhausted. If he had noticed it, why had he not sought help? Why did he not move closer to a populated area? If a person was trapped in the park, unable to move, wouldn’t they have left a note, yelled at a passing hiker?
Did he have a condition? The autopsy, as everyone has pointed out, does not indicate anything immediate. One person on this list correctly listed Type 1 diabetes as a possible reason. Initially I thought this was possible - I am a Type 1 and just before I was diagnosed, I had lost 25 pounds in less than two months without trying, due to raging hyperglycemia and the cells not getting enough glucose, and thus eating your fat to survive. Since he probably had little to no body fat and was hiking nonstop, this could have happened even more quickly. There is no possible way you can keep on weight, when this condition takes hold.
However, you would absolutely feel the physical ramifications of this. Crushing fatigue, the pain of ketoacidosis, especially in your upper thighs - you can’t do a damn thing, let alone hike with a heavy load. If he did nothing, he would gradually suffer organ failure, paralysis - I do believe this would show on an autopsy in some fashion, even if it happened pretty quickly. It certainly could be true, as moonriverfarm suggested in their talks with the hiker who found him, that if he was there he had not moved much in some time - either unable or unwilling to move - and simply died of arrest.
But whether he had a physical condition or didn’t perhaps isn’t the point: it seems possible that whatever the case, he ignored his body’s physical response and allowed himself, for whatever reason, to get to 83 pounds, seemingly without ever asking for help or hiking to civilization when - at least it seems - these options were available. This dramatic wasting would not have happened over a week. Therefore, if he did indeed hunker down in the park for 2-3 months, it remains a bizarre choice to do so. Could he not move, perhaps? Again, it seems illogical based on the autopsy.
3) He did something else, then returned to the park. There are so many potential “what-ifs” in this scenario, it’s not even worth really digging into. But, if he was not in the park for the duration, and he was not continuing to hike, then surely, once again, he would have been noticed by someone.
Well, thanks for reading this rumination
Please tell me where I’m off-base. To me, what is most fascinating and perhaps disturbing are the last few months of his life from when the last photo of him was taken, on March 17, 2018, to when he was found, four months later. Something has gone terribly wrong during these months. If we apply some logic, as far as I can tell, there are three possible conclusions that we could reach:
1) He continued hiking southbound. This seems the least plausible to me, as also mentioned by Narkj and Vespertine, as the Keys are highly populated, there’s only one main road in and out that he’d have to navigate, and there almost certainly would have been sightings. Vespertine also stated that “Mike” said that he did not show up on any trail cameras south of where he was found (where did this information come from? sorry if I missed it). Also: there were fires in the area.
Furthermore: he would doubtlessly be noticed by a hiker, or just another human, if he was approaching that incredibly low weight. If we look at the March 17, 2018 photo, to me, taking into account that photos aren’t always a good gauge, I would still say that if he was 5' 8" he would still be around 130 pounds in that photo. “Hiker skinny” as someone stated. That would mean that between mid-March and mid-July, he lost around 50 pounds of body weight. This would be noticeable.
2) He was living in the park (as the NAMUS info suggests). This is plausible to me. However, if this is indeed the case, it opens up a number of problematic questions.
Why on earth live at a campsite so far away from a re-supply area for food? If he were camped there, he would have had to eventually re-supply with long hikes in and out, and again, he probably would be noticed. Especially if he were approaching that dangerously unhealthy weight.
The Everglades in July is an incredibly inhospitable area to set-up shop for a couple of months, with 90-degree heat and humidity and regular brutal thunderstorms. He was in a tent, doing…nothing? Writing Screeps code as he wasted away? Again, it doesn’t seem logical unless you allow for the fact that something was going on, physically or psychologically, or both.
I believe he would have eventually noticed his own wasting condition and could not pass it off as hiking weight loss. His clothes would not fit - at that weight, his lime green shorts would have just fallen off his body. He would have been weak, exhausted. If he had noticed it, why had he not sought help? Why did he not move closer to a populated area? If a person was trapped in the park, unable to move, wouldn’t they have left a note, yelled at a passing hiker?
Did he have a condition? The autopsy, as everyone has pointed out, does not indicate anything immediate. One person on this list correctly listed Type 1 diabetes as a possible reason. Initially I thought this was possible - I am a Type 1 and just before I was diagnosed, I had lost 25 pounds in less than two months without trying, due to raging hyperglycemia and the cells not getting enough glucose, and thus eating your fat to survive. Since he probably had little to no body fat and was hiking nonstop, this could have happened even more quickly. There is no possible way you can keep on weight, when this condition takes hold.
However, you would absolutely feel the physical ramifications of this. Crushing fatigue, the pain of ketoacidosis, especially in your upper thighs - you can’t do a damn thing, let alone hike with a heavy load. If he did nothing, he would gradually suffer organ failure, paralysis - I do believe this would show on an autopsy in some fashion, even if it happened pretty quickly. It certainly could be true, as moonriverfarm suggested in their talks with the hiker who found him, that if he was there he had not moved much in some time - either unable or unwilling to move - and simply died of arrest.
But whether he had a physical condition or didn’t perhaps isn’t the point: it seems possible that whatever the case, he ignored his body’s physical response and allowed himself, for whatever reason, to get to 83 pounds, seemingly without ever asking for help or hiking to civilization when - at least it seems - these options were available. This dramatic wasting would not have happened over a week. Therefore, if he did indeed hunker down in the park for 2-3 months, it remains a bizarre choice to do so. Could he not move, perhaps? Again, it seems illogical based on the autopsy.
3) He did something else, then returned to the park. There are so many potential “what-ifs” in this scenario, it’s not even worth really digging into. But, if he was not in the park for the duration, and he was not continuing to hike, then surely, once again, he would have been noticed by someone.
Well, thanks for reading this rumination
