FL FL - Michelle Parker, 33, Orlando, 17 Nov 2011 - #21

[Thor]

Now you admit Dale could be responsible. If he did make Michelle disappear what is your best guess on how he pulled this off. Dale appears to me like a "dumb jock"...is he smart enough to pull all this off by himself? I doubt it...that's why I think he had "brains" helping him. What are your thoughts?

I never disagreed with you that he might be guilty, I disagree with you that he is, and I too would not be surprised if it turns out DS killed MP unfortunately, the reason for this should be clear to anyone IMO, however if the charge was that DS is a cad, has a violent history and a criminal record then we could just skip everything else and go to the sentencing stage IMO, however that is not the case.

As for any possible accomplices, that would be a possible theory like many others and one could construct one relatively easy.

In sum I have no issue with speculations and theories, these are the stuff investigations are made of, I just draw the line in proclaiming publicly someone guilty, even Dale, where the evidence is clearly not there IMO

 

[Thor]

But in doing so you open up a can of worms as we have no evidence supporting a random person but PLENTY of evidence that can and does support Dale as the culprit. Ignoring common sense and wildly speculating on what could have happened to Michelle other than Dale being involved has no point IMO. The possibilities would be endless and would never lead us any closer to Michelle or who is responsible.

If you had a jewel thief spotted in the area of a major robery of a jewelry store who admitted he would some day rob that store. And had showed intent, motive, and opportunity to rob the store would you make up random suspects who might have robbed the store when no such characters existed? IMO Jar Jar Binks ruined Episode I as he distracted us from the plot. Looking at other characters in the disappearance of Michelle is a smiliar distraction in finding the truth about where Michelle is...JMO

I really don't know where are these plenty of evidence since we know of none and the police are not telling. I think perhaps you meant theories based on speculations and supported by some facts that may or may not be true and in any case subject to interpretation , and of those there are plenty indeed. I also don't understand, as I said before, why it would be a waste of time to envision other possibility, when confronted with so little information I would think the opposite would be true and besides it should not be our goal IMO to find DS guilty but to try to figure out the truth whatever that might be in order to find MP. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

I never disagreed with you that he might be guilty, I disagree with you that he is, and I too would not be surprised if it turns out DS killed MP unfortunately, the reason for this should be clear to anyone IMO, however if the charge was that DS is a cad, has a violent history and a criminal record then we could just skip everything else and go to the sentencing stage IMO, however that is not the case.

As for any possible accomplices, that would be a possible theory like many others and one could construct one relatively easy.

In sum I have no issue with speculations and theories, this are the stuff investigations are made of, I just draw the line in proclaiming publicly someone guilty, even Dale, where the evidence is clearly not there IMO

Ok well let's start with a few inconsistencies:

1. Why would Dale change the time Michelle arrived and left? He had been watching PC so he would clearly know Michelle arrived earlier than 4pm.

2. Why would he use Buck Fuddy to claim Michelle was an escort?

3. why would he tell LE Michelle said she was going shopping and no one else knew about this? Could it be that maybe he spotted shopping bags in her vehicle from earlier in the day?

4. Why did Michelle's normal phone activities cease shortly after arriving at Dales?

 

[Jazzmaster]

I really don't know where are these plenty of evidence since we know of none and the police are not telling. I think perhaps you meant theories based on speculations and supported by some facts that may be or not be true and in any case subject to interpretation , and of those there are plenty indeed. I also don't understand, as I said before, why it would be a waste of time to envision other possibility, when confronted with so little information I would think the opposite would be true and besides it should not be our goal IMO to find DS guilty but to trying to figure out the truth whatever that might be in order to find MP.

In any solid investigation you follow the hottest most probable leads. We have a hot lead (strong possibility) in Dale and ice cold possibility someone other than Dale was involved. IF LE hasn't named any other suspects how can we find one without wild speculation and fabrication. If our goal is to write a mystery novel sure it makes sense to explore other possibilities but if our goal is to find Michelle my suggestion is to follow the hot trail which just happens to be one PRIME suspect named Dale Smith...JMO

 

[Thor]

Ok well let's start with a few inconsistencies:

1. Why would Dale change the time Michelle arrived and left? He had been watching PC so he would clearly know Michelle arrived earlier than 4pm.

I don't know for a fact Dale change his statements to the police, I suspect neither do you, correct me if I am wrong. Assuming he did change some statements that it might simply be what it simply is, it changed his recollection.

2. Why would he use Buck Fuddy to claim Michelle was an escort?

Both he and Michelle were clearly two immature people getting at each other's case. IMO

3. why would he tell LE Michelle said she was going shopping and no one else knew about this? Could it be that maybe he spotted shopping bags in her vehicle from earlier in the day?

Again we don't really know what he said to the police, I may be wrong, please correct me if I am. In any case why would he lie about what Michell was or not was going to do for after she left the condo, it isn't like it he was in charge of her life.

4. Why did Michelle's normal phone activities cease shortly after arriving at Dales?[/QUOTE]

I am not sure what you mean by "normal" here.

 

[Thor]

In any solid investigation you follow the hottest most probable leads. We have a hot lead (strong possibility) in Dale and ice cold possibility someone other than Dale was involved. IF LE hasn't named any other suspects how can we find one without wild speculation and fabrication. If our goal is to write a mystery novel sure it makes sense to explore other possibilities but if our goal is to find Michelle my suggestion is to follow the hot trail which just happens to be one PRIME suspect named Dale Smith...JMO

IMO By your own standard, after 6 months of investigating Dale and no charges filed, one could reasonable infer that these "hottest most probable leads" are not as hot anymore, actually kinda of cold or at least lukewarm?. Again why keep on thinking inside the box and not out of it?

 

[katydid23]

By your own standard, after 6 months of investigating Dale and no charges filed, one could reasonable infer that these "hottest most probable leads" are not as hot anymore, actually kinda of cold or at least lukewarm?. Again why keep on thinking inside the box and not out of it?

Six months is not that long , especially when there is no body yet. Plenty of successful murder convictions were brought much longer than 6 months, a year, even two years after the fact.

 

[Thor]

Why would a stalker go thru the trouble of removing the decals, sending a bogus text, using Michelle's phone to monitor the family's reaction, and then hide Michelle? IMO this does not seem viable considering we have no other evidence that said person exists...

An abductor has plenty of reason to remove the decal here or to hide the hummer as I went into painstakingly details in a much earlier post and don't have the stamina to re-write it again.

 

[Thor]

Six months is not that long , especially when there is no body yet. Plenty of successful murder convictions were brought much longer than 6 months, a year, even two years after the fact.

Agreed, I wrote a long post on this issue earlier, however generally passage of time indicate a lesser likelihood of trial and conviction then otherwise. I even posted a link to a research and statistical data that were at least in part relevant. However I think it is intuitive in any case that this should be so. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

4. Why did Michelle's normal phone activities cease shortly after arriving at Dales?

I am not sure what you mean by "normal" here.[/QUOTE]

She was in regular communication with others via text and phone up until she arrives at Dale's...then we have no evidence she left the condo under her own free will. To assume another person other than Dale. Where is she abducted? How are there no witnesses? Why weren't there any normal texts (back to NM or her son getting off the bus)? Why didn't anyone see her or her vehicle with GLOW decals in tact after she supposedly left?

Her day...though a bit sporadic earlier...had a sense of normality to it UP UNTIL she arrives at Dale's. Phone communications cease except for one suspicious text and no known sightings of Michelle or her vehicle. A simple explanation? Michelle was harmed at Dale's and her vehicle was driven into his garage and stripped of decals. He waits until dark to hide evidence. This is FAR MORE likely than any other scenario anyone can draw up IMO... Correct me if I am wrong....

 

[Jazzmaster]

An abductor has plenty of reason to remove the decal here or to hide the hummer as I went into painstakingly details in a much earlier post and don't have the stamina to re-write it again.

I disagree. A random abductor is off the radar and would have little reason to hide evidence because their identity is unknown. Search the boards for random abductions and the body is often recovered pretty quickly. In the case of Michelle it's like the person responsibile was mad at her for having the Glow business and needed to hide her because he left behind key evidence that could be tied back to him. Dale had the motivation to hide the vehicle and Michelle because he knew he'd be the main suspect. How did he not know about the neighbor's camera? Again he doesn't seem to be the brightest bulb and probably is looking at himself in the mirror as he drives into the condo as self centered as he is...JMO

 

[Thor]

She was in regular communication with others via text and phone up until she arrives at Dale's...then we have no evidence she left the condo under her own free will. To assume another person other than Dale. Where is she abducted? How are there no witnesses? Why weren't there any normal texts (back to NM or her son getting off the bus)? Why didn't anyone see her or her vehicle with GLOW decals in tact after she supposedly left?

Her day...though a bit sporadic earlier...had a sense of normality to it UP UNTIL she arrives at Dale's. Phone communications cease except for one suspicious text and no known sightings of Michelle or her vehicle. A simple explanation? Michelle was harmed at Dale's and her vehicle was driven into his garage and stripped of decals. He waits until dark to hide evidence. This is FAR MORE likely than any other scenario anyone can draw up IMO... Correct me if I am wrong....

This questions and it's allegations were answered by me in another post and I don't have the stamina to re-write them again. You could search it though. And this brings me to the central point on how we keep on rehashing the same theories over and over again. Why not think outside the box for a change?

 

[katydid23]

An abductor has plenty of reason to remove the decal here or to hide the hummer as I went into painstakingly details in a much earlier post and don't have the stamina to re-write it again.

But Michelle's hummer was last seen at Dale's. that was the last time it was ever seen with the decals on.

When would an abductor have time or opportunity to take off her decals? If she drove away from the condo and then was abducted, she would be out in public. So how would the perp get the privacy needed to take off the decals and hide the body?

 

[Jazzmaster]

IMO there is no need to think outside the box when the box contains all the data and evidence you need to solve the puzzle. If you went to the store and bought a jigsaw puzzle that had 100 pieces. You open the box and count and all the pieces are there...you return the pieces to the box, shake it up to randomly mix them up. You then open the box back up to work on the puzzle. Would you start to put the puzzle together with the contents of the box or randomly start looking for pieces elsewhere? JMO

 

[Thor]

IMO there is no need to think outside the box when the box contains all the data and evidence you need to solve the puzzle. If you went to the store and bought a jigsaw puzzle that had 100 pieces. You open the box and count and all the pieces are there...you return the pieces to the box, shake it up to randomly mix them up. You then open the box back up to work on the puzzle. Would you start to put the puzzle together with the contents of the box or randomly start looking for pieces elsewhere? JMO

I can't go into a philosophical argument of what it means "to think outside the box" here. I guess "Dale is guilty surely" is on again. I will agree to disagree and that's that. As far as I am concerned I have way much more questions then answers here. IMO Limiting oneself to one central theory and how to prove it is just that, limiting. I can be wrong though as I have been many times in the past.

 

[Jazzmaster]

I can't go into a philosophical argument of what it means to "think outside the box" here. I guess "Dale is guilty surely" is on again. I will agree to disagree and that's that. As far as I am concerned I have way much more questions then answers here. Limiting oneself to one central theory and how to prove it is just that, limiting IMO. I can be wrong though as I have been many time in the past.

Ok I have in MANY ways explained my rational...as an outsider...on how I have come to conclude Dale is guilty...what unanswered questions lead you to unreasonable doubt? What evidence is there that Michelle left Dale's condo under her own free will? If not Dale then who? If it was Dale how could he have done this? Have you worked thru that possibility? That was helpful for me. I have constructed dozens of ways that Dale could have pulled this off and have yet to come up with even one way a random person could have done all this...Again I have no horses in the race so to speak. I just want Michelle to be found and Dale to be brought to justice. JMO

 

[Thor]

Ok I have in MANY ways explained my rational...as an outsider...on how I have come to conclude Dale is guilty...what unanswered questions lead you to unreasonable doubt? What evidence is there that Michelle left Dale's condo under her own free will? If not Dale then who? If it was Dale how could he have done this? Have you worked thru that possibility? That was helpful for me. I have constructed dozens of ways that Dale could have pulled this off and have yet to come up with even one way a random person could have done all this...Again I have no horses in the race so to speak. I just want Michelle to be found and Dale to be brought to justice. JMO

I haven't the faintest idea how you can discard for sure the possibility of another abductor other then DS. I could come up with so many theories to that effect, I just don't want to spend yet another major part of my day writing about them, at least not today. One thing is for sure that if the police could prove, not just as a theory, but with real evidence that Dale and only Dale could have been responsible for MP disappearance then they would have made an arrest by now. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

I haven't the faintest idea how you can discard for sure the possibility of another abductor other then DS. I could come up with so many theories to that effect, I just don't want to spend yet another major part of my day writing about them, at least not today. One thing is for sure that if the police could prove, not just as a theory, but with real evidence that Dale and only Dale could have been responsible for MP disappearance then they probably would have made an arrest by now. IMO

No no I didn't say I could discard all possibilities for sure. I just haven't found a plausible solution for someone other than Dale that can be supported with evidence or facts that line up with the time frames and known information. All data points released thus far point back to the high probability that Dale was involved. It is further disagreed that IMO LE could reasonably have sufficient evidence to arrest Dale but have chosen not to. I have seen this happen in several other cases where LE has had close to or sufficient evidence for arrest but instead wait to get all their ducks in a row. Dale is going down IMO. The clock is ticking and the countdown has begun. JMO

Do we have any way to figure out how much Dale has cost us FL taxpayers in the form of investigation costs, welfare, food stamps etc? This is really causing me to lose sleep. JMO

 

[Thor]

No no I didn't say I could discard all possibilities for sure. I just haven't found a plausible solution for someone other than Dale that can be supported with evidence or facts that line up with the time frames and known information. All data points released thus far point back to the high probability that Dale was involved. It is further disagreed that IMO LE could reasonably have sufficient evidence to arrest Dale but have chosen not to. I have seen this happen in several other cases where LE has had close to or sufficient evidence for arrest but instead wait to get all their ducks in a row. Dale is going down IMO. The clock is ticking and the countdown has begun. JMO

Do we have any way to figure out how much Dale has cost us FL taxpayers in the form of investigation costs, welfare, food stamps etc? This is really causing me to lose sleep. JMO

Welfare is a program designed to help families in need and especially the children in those circumstances. We as a society recognize the usefulness and moral imperative to help those in need, not because it is just moral to do so but also because in doing so we ensure that should ourselves or people we love need an helping hand it would be there for us and them.

In helping people we do not second guess whether they are good or bad or any shades in between, nor do we make a condition of eligibility for welfare that people not be accused by public opinion of any crime, nor do we begrudge spending money for this family but not the other. IMO

 

[Jazzmaster]

Welfare is a program designed to help families in need and especially the children in those circumstances. We as a society recognize the usefulness and moral imperative to help those in need, not because it is just moral to do so but also because in doing so we ensure that should ourselves or people we love need an helping hand it would be there for us and them.

In helping people we do not second guess whether they are good or bad or any shades in between, nor do we make a condition of eligibility for welfare that people not be accused by public opinion of any crime, nor do we begrudge spending money for this family but not the other. IMO

But he made the choice to harm Michelle so IMO he shouldn't get aid. Do you think it would be helpful to plot some places he may have hidden Michelle? We could use a process of elimination (places already searched) and some best ideas. Given he most likely hid her between 4:30-8:00 I think we can narrow the possibilities.