Forensic linguist & Jonbenet Ransom study group

[voynich]

:clap: Yeah and they just casually forget about the pineapple bowl on the kitchen counter with their fingerprints all over them?

It makes no sense for anybody to do those things. The idea that JR would allow PR to put pen to paper goes far beyond the limit of plausibility IMO. The evidence in the basement on its own (open window, suitcase, unmatched footprint) was sufficient to cause LE to believe she had been sexually assaulted and murdered right there. That the ransom note was 'needed to explain JBR' is simply false.

Early on, handwriting experts excluded JR as the author.

If it could be shown via handwriting or linguistics that PR wrote the note, then we could speculate as to why she would do such a thing however self-incriminating it may be. One speculation is that PR wanted to "confess" to the crime. Another speculation is that she wanted to recruit John.

If it could not be shown via handwriting or linguistics that PR wrote the note, we could debate whether there is a strong reason for her to write the RN, and whether this reason is sufficient to establish her doing so when handwriting and linguistics is inconclusive. One attempt to tie PR to the RN is the RN's "motherly tone" (which is debatable -- the Leopold and Loeb RN has a motherly tone) another attempt to tie PR to the RN is to argue 'needed to explain JBR' as Dave's two profilers explain. These are also debatable. There are other children who were abducted and murdered, no RN found. THere were other children who were abducted and murdered, RN found, and well sadly the child was murdered. You can search my previous posts on these two points.

In this case, the linguistics is definitive, PR did not write the RN. Since we now know that neither JR nor PR wrote the RN, we could ask what features in the RN would suggest or says about the profile of the author.

"The delivery will be exhausting, so I advise you to be well rested"

While if you believe PR wrote the note, this sounds motherly, since PR did not write the note, I put forward that the author wanted to sound like the GODFATHER "I'll make you a generous offer you can't refuse" (with threat of violence if you do refuse) The movie Ransom and Dirty Harry both (which involves kidnapping a child and payment of money) also talks about a delivery that is exhausting and advice to be rested.


A standard trope in movies involving the Mafia (i.e Godfather, the Untouchables, etc) is that the initial offer from the Italian mafia is friendly and generous and polite and genteel.

In the movie Untouchables with Sean Connery and Kevin Costner, a mafia agent met Elliot Ness (Kevin Costner) and politely complimented him and spoke of how "smart" he is, and while praising him, drops $10k on his desk, smiling.

Here, the specific features of the RN suggest to me that a young white male who likes movies and is a fan of true crime wrote the RN.

 

[voynich]

Voynich- I`m not a dude. See this is why we need forensic linguistics, the "motherly tone"- stuff is subjective.

really? wow. I correctly guessed other posters as being middle age mothers.

Honestly I thought you were a guy b/c "mysteeri" sounds like something a guy would pick, and spell. Why did you pick this and spell it in this way?

I picked voynich as it is a mysteeri.

 

[Mysteeri]

I`ll pm you about that, Voynich.

 

[voynich]

Slightly off topic, however...

The entire basis of this case has to do with the precious few scraps of evidence that we actually are ALLOWED to know about. There is a "warehouse" of evidence apparently just waiting to blow this thing open, yet we are bickering about linguists, language, experts, experts for experts, touch DNA, no DNA and round and round and round it goes, where it'll end up, nobody knows.

Doesn't this strike you all as ODD?

What strikes me as odd was how little BPD investigated Amy's rape. Whether the rapist child pedophile is linked w/JB or not, she was still raped in her own home with her mother present, 9 months after and 2 miles away.

I would go through THAT warehouse of evidence first, both for justice for Amy and for the possibility it's the same offender.

 

[BBB167893]

I've been looking forward to this. I see the number of profilers have doubled since the last time we met, Dave. Good. Twice the pride, double the fall.

I sense great fear in you, voynich.

The issue of whether the RN was written before (certainly implies IDI) or after (either IDI or RDI) JB's death remains undecided.

What if the note was written BEFORE JB was killed and while R's were away (i.e slipped in the house while R's away like Amy's perp did) and decided to leave the premises after he killed JB, and staged the crime scene. Obviously if it was written before your profiler is speculating.

You raise a good point. It might please you to know that they said the same thing. But they were confident in their belief that it was written afterward.

We've addressed the other issues ad nausea. I don't know how Ressler defines harden criminals but L&L used similar motherly language as did the Barbara RN, both written by men, and perhaps Amy's & JB rapist doesn't satisfy Ressler's definition of a harden criminal.

Well, I would just remind you that Ressler has forgotten more about classifying hardened criminals than you or I will likely ever know. But I believe I can explain it. What Ressler is saying is that for the JBR crime scene to be legit, it would HAVE to be someone who has been steadily working their way up the criminal food chain. Your examples are self-defeating for that reason. L&L were not hardened, career criminals. They jumped in with both feet, but they knew what they wanted to do from the beginning. The killing itself was just the starter. The real thrill for them was leading everyone else on the chase (not unlike Batman's enemy the Riddler). As for Amy's rapist, probably just some freak who couldn't control his urges. There's NOTHING inconsistent in his behavior with other thrill-crimes.

And that's the trick: the JBR crime scene is COMPLETELY inconsistent.

Get help! You're no match for him. He's a Linguistic Lord.

My specialty!

I have no idea of DA & RST are aware nor whether they referenced it. His textbook and he is regularly cited and testified over 250 cases (probably more since the book was published in 2000) where courts have accepted his testimony.

But it would make sense, would it not?

But if these conclusions hold that neither PR nor JR wrote the RN, then RDIST is finished -- everything else is either erroneous or speculation, or worse, RDI spin doctoring.

Remember, YOU said it: IF. I've learned not to put too much faith in any one expert or aspect of this case.

As for that spin doctoring bit, that's beneath my consideration.

The only thing I would add is that the profilers and psychological and crime scene profiles such as the CASKU assume that an intruder would not enter the premises while the family is away, and, when the parents are still present, sleeping, and sexually assault the child. Perfectly logical, since the child's screams may bring in the parents. Yet this very thing happened to Amy 9 months later and 2 miles away.

I'm not aware that it assumes that AT ALL. From what I understand, that possibility was considered and rejected for a couple of reasons.

I suspect this author is alluding to movies that do not appeal to PR's demographic, and it would be difficult to come up with such quotes under extreme stress. It also makes no sense for PR to write this. It really makes no sense for PR to write such a note in her own handwriting, with a dead body in the basement, using writing tools paper on her own premises (but disposes of other incriminating evidence) and that JR would allow all this to occur and with his knowledge and approval.

I started a thread PRECISELY to show how it makes sense, voynich. Damn shame it's gone ignored like it has!

I'm somewhat skeptical that they could tie the garrote, or that they would even want to after the head blow.

I could help you get past that, too.

I infer that Lord Dave will have to search far and wide to find a credentialed linguist who disagrees w/McMenamin's qualification

I figured as much. But then, that's more or less my problem with these fields: not enough mavericks.

Does RDI have 'black knight' syndrome or what?

'Tis but a scratch! HAVE AT YOU!

Yeah and they just casually forget about the pineapple bowl on the kitchen counter with their fingerprints all over them?

Sure! If I were in that position, my first thought would not be about doing the dishes! NOBODY figures everything. Damn good thing, too, because if they did, we'd have to scrap the entire legal system, because nobody would ever get arrested!

The idea that JR would allow PR to put pen to paper goes far beyond the limit of plausibility IMO.

ALLOW? HOTYH, I made a whole thread on why he would have TOLD her to do it: because that way it all ties back to her. I REALLY need to get that one restarted.

The evidence in the basement on its own (open window, suitcase, unmatched footprint) was sufficient to cause LE to believe she had been sexually assaulted and murdered right there.

Just remember WHICH LE that was!

 

[BBB167893]

Voynich- I`m not a dude. See this is why we need forensic linguistics, the "motherly tone"- stuff is subjective.

I was hesitant to write about me e-mailing McMenamin, but it`s something I like to do when I want to get to the bottom of things.

Whatever it does for you, Mysteeri, I had you pegged as a woman right off.

I googled his e-mail address. http://directory.csufresno.edu/detailsFacultyStaff.asp?ID=341

I worded the question like this:

"I would be very grateful, if you could offer your opinion on the
following subject: Could the stylistic dissimilarities in the
JonBenet ransom note and in
Patsy Ramsey`s handwriting be due to her writing the ransom note
while being agitated and possibly medicated?"

Excellent!

Personally I don`t think the dissimilarities are due to John and Patsy writing the note together, since there are stylistics in the rn that differ from both of them I believe.

On an individual basis, sure. But just remember, that idea didn't just come out of nowhere.

But you have to ask McMenamin yourself

I just might.

 

[BBB167893]

If it could be shown via handwriting or linguistics that PR wrote the note, then we could speculate as to why she would do such a thing however self-incriminating it may be. One speculation is that PR wanted to "confess" to the crime. Another speculation is that she wanted to recruit John.

I happen to think it was SEVERAL reasons.

If it could not be shown via handwriting or linguistics that PR wrote the note, we could debate whether there is a strong reason for her to write the RN, and whether this reason is sufficient to establish her doing so when handwriting and linguistics is inconclusive.

You know I'm game.

Problem as I see it is that we have ourselves a bit of a stalemate. One my side, we have probably the finest living handwriting expert (at least that how he's been described by several sources) who says she did, no doubt in his mind. On your side, we have the finest living linguistics expert (or, as much as anyone CAN be the best, let's put it that way) who says no way. I have to admit, that's a tough one.

For me the tie-breaker is the way the R lawyers tried to sabotage another analyst because they couldn't afford for him to testify. But we'll get to that later.

another attempt to tie PR to the RN is to argue 'needed to explain JBR' as Dave's two profilers explain. These are also debatable.

By themselves, yeah, they're debatable. But it fits in with everything else, or almost everything else is the point I'm trying to make, for all the good it does me.

There are other children who were abducted and murdered, no RN found. THere were other children who were abducted and murdered, RN found, and well sadly the child was murdered. You can search my previous posts on these two points.

You might want to rethink that, voynich. The CONTRAST between JB and the various murdered children in America is a big reason why I turned to the dark side in the first place!

One other thing. You claim this analysis is definitive, just throwing out everything else. Well, it's not definitive, heck no. I put about as much stock in it as I do tarot card readings. Hunter was all set to claim linguistics as definitive too, until he got the one answer he did not want to get. Don't think I'm letting you dodge that one.

Well, there was something I forgot to mention. When Beckner talked about linguistics at the February press conference, he didn't talk about HUMAN analysis. He mentioned a computer program. So it will be interesting to see what comes of that. Also, there was just something in my gut that told me "he knows something here. More than he's letting on."

 

[voynich]

I
Problem as I see it is that we have ourselves a bit of a stalemate. One my side, we have probably the finest living handwriting expert (at least that how he's been described by several sources) who says she did, no doubt in his mind. "

It's just a flesh wound.

You can't win Dave. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.


Who is this finest living handwriting expert? Is there an analysis online or I can d/l? What about other handwriting experts who said that PR cannot be matched to RN?

http://jonbenetramsey.pbworks.com

# American Board of Forensic Document Examiners. The only recognized organization for accrediting forensic document examiners is the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners ("ABFDE"). (Defs.' Mot. In Limine 68; Epstein Dep. At 36.)" (Carnes 2003:50-51).


"Error Rates: Professionals vs. Non-Professionals. "A study by Dr. Moshe Kam indicates that professional document examiners had only a 6.5% error rate compared to an error rate of 38.3% for nonprofessionals"

which means your handwriting examiner might be wrong 6.5%

No BPD-Hired Experts Identified Patsy as RN Author. "During the investigation, the Boulder Police Department and Boulder County District Attorney's Office consulted at least six handwriting experts. (SMF P 191; PSMF P 191.) All of these experts consulted the original Ransom Note and original handwriting exemplars from Mrs. Ramsey. (SMF P 205; PSMF P 205.) Four of these experts were hired by the police and two were hired by defendants. (SMF P 191; PSMF P 191.) None of the six consulted experts identified Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note. (SMF P 195; PSMF P 195.) [Emphasis added.]

* Numerous Significant Dissimilarities Rule Out Patsy. "The two experts hired by defendants both assert that this evidence strongly suggests that Mrs. Ramsey did not write the Note. (SMF P 254.)" (Carnes 2003:26). "Defendants' experts base their conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey is not the author of the Ransom Note on the "numerous significant dissimilarities" between the individual characteristics of Mrs. Ramsey's handprinting and of that used in the Ransom Note. (SMF P 247.) For example, defendants asserts Mrs. Ramsey's written letter "u" consistently differs from the way the same letter is written throughout the Ransom Note. (SMF P 248.)" (Carnes 2003:27).



* Expertise of Examiners. The expertise and high ethical standards of these experts was summarized by Darnay Hoffman, an attorney for Chris Wolf, who sought to prove that Patsy Ramsey was the note writer, in a fax to Tom Miller, a handwriting expert he had hired (see below): "I spoke with handwriting expert Paul A. Osborn...He refuses to touch the Ramsey case with a ten foot pole. His reasons: he knows the handwriting experts who gave their reports to the defense team and to C.B.I.--four in all. According to Osborn these experts are supposedly top of their field (he won't give me their names) with impeccable ethical credentials. Their verdict: the similarities between Patsy and the ransom note writers handwriting is at the very lowest end of the spectrum, i.e., there is little or no basis for match."


Individual Expert Opinions Favorable to Patsy Ramsey
Experts Consulted By BPD/BDA (6 experts inclusive of 2 hired by Ramseys)
Richard Dusak

* Dusak Findings. "Richard Dusick (sic) of the U.S. Secret Service concluded that there was "no evidence to indicate that Patsy Ramsey executed any of the questioned material appearing on the Ransom Note." (SMF P 200; PSMF P 200.)" (Carnes 2003:26, note 14).



* Qualifications. Dusak is a member of the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners. According to ABFDE: "The American Board of Forensic Document Examiners (ABFDE) is the only certifying board sponsored by the American Society of Questioned Document Examiners, the Canadian Society of Forensic Sciences, The Southeastern Association of Forensic Document Examiners, the Southwestern Association of Forensic Document Examiners, and is recognized by the American Academy of Forensic Sciences."

Leonard Speckin

* Speckin Findings.

1. Unable to Eliminate. "Leonard Speckin, a private forensic document examiner, concluded that differences between the writing of Mrs. Ramsey's handwriting and the author of the Ransom Note prevented him from identifying Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note, but he was unable to eliminate her. (SMF P 198; PSMF P 198.)" (Carnes 2003:26, note 14). Speckin's report stated: "When I compare the handwriting habits of Patsy Ramsey with those in the questioned ransom note, there exists agreement to the extent that some of her individual letter formations and letter combinations do appear in the ransom note." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:9-14) "When this agreement is weighed against the number, type and consistency of the differences present, I am unable to identify Patsy Ramsey as the author of the questioned ransom note with any degree of certainty. I am, however, unable to eliminate her as the author." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:25 through p. 139:1-6).

Edwin F. Alford, Jr.

* Alford Findings

1. Evidence Fell Short. "Edwin Alford, a private forensic document examiner, states the evidence fell short of that needed to support a conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the note. (SMF P 197; PSMF P 197.)" (Carnes 2003:26, note 14).
2. Evidence Failed to Provide Basis. According to Internet poster Jameson (see Nov. 02 2002,6:18 pm), Alford asserted: "Examination of the questioned handwriting and comparison with the handwriting specimens submitted has failed to provide a basis for identifying Patricia Ramsey as the writer of the letter."


* Alford Qualifications. Alford is a diplomate of the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners

Others Who Could Not Be Eliminated
Overview

* Carnes Opinion. "Other experts believe the Ransom Note may have been authored by other people. In addition to Mrs. Ramsey, there were other individuals "under suspicion" who had their handwriting analyzed and who were not eliminated as the possible author of the Ransom Note. (SMF P 205; PSMF P 205.)" (Carnes 2003:30).

According to Internet poster Athena

in PMPT, "p181 Henderson's handwriting similar and no DNA ever taken because Harmon was working on it and she left the case and no one followed up." (This appears to be a paraphrased reference to paperback version of Schiller).

Bill McReynolds

* According to Internet poster Athena
"In his own book, Thomas states that McReynolds handwriting was similar but he did not believe he had anything to do with the murder because of his disability." (This appears to be a paraphrased reference; no specific page number provided).


Jeff Merrick

* According to Internet poster Athena, "According to PMPT p166 - Merriman's [sic] handwriting was so close they believed he wrote the note but did not kill JBR" (This appears to be a paraphrased reference to paperback version of Schiller).


Glenn Meyers

* According to Internet poster Athena, in PMPT "p182 - Glenn Meyers handwriting was was similiar;" (This appears to be a paraphrased reference to paperback version of Schiller).


Chris Wolf

* LLoyd Cunningham Analysis. "For example, forensic document examiner Lloyd Cunningham cannot eliminate plaintiff Chris Wolf as the author of the Ransom Note. (SMF P 279; PSMF P 279.)" (Carnes 2003:30).
* Wolf's Girlfriend. "Plaintiff's ex-girlfriend has also testified that she was "struck by how the handwriting in the note resembled plaintiff's own handwriting" and believes that he is the note's author. (J. Brungardt Aff. P 43.)" (Carnes 2003:30).
* Editing Mark Used in RN. "Further, to the extent that the use of a single editing mark might suggest to plaintiff's experts that Mrs. Ramsey was the author, given her bachelor's degree in journalism, one should also note that plaintiff, himself, has a Masters' degree in journalism. (Id. P 13.)" (Carnes 2003:30).




If there is no consensus, then adding forensic linguistic analysis is a tie-fighter.

Forensic linguist with the ninjato v.s Handwriting expert with claymore

I feel we're playing a forensic document equivalent of who is the deadliest warrior?

 

[Tadpole12]

Hi voynich.

ST; pb version, p128

Analysis proved that Santa Bill didn't write the ransom note, and he was much too frail to have made a midnight run from Rollinsville, done a spiderman entry .....

 

[voynich]

Hi voynich.

ST; pb version, p128

Analysis proved that Santa Bill didn't write the ransom note, and he was much too frail to have made a midnight run from Rollinsville, done a spiderman entry .....

It does show though that some aspects of his writing resembles the RN -- meaning that a match to PR may be of limited value since it could as well match perhaps 10% of the population.

 

[Tadpole12]

also, voynich,

ty for compiling that overview list of expert analysis.

it's difficult to make a tally of what of merit would remain, within the brief overview, if you illiminate the differing results.
ie does one expert's conclusion negate another of opposite position?

if we're left with only the fornensic linguistic material, to be touted as the definitive, then we must consider the limitations of method, and the arbitrary aspects of the model.

with resect to McMenamin "he studies the material, makes a preliminary attribution, and then seeks to find evidence of his preliminary finding basing his attribution on whether he does in fact find the necessary evidence."

The model operates under the premise that there is no attempt at disguise.

So .... I wonder to what degree are catagories of idiolect and appearance represented/weighed within the format; format, punctuations, misspellling, profanity, how are these aspects are weighed within the model, are they attributed with an equal value.

if the rn was an attempt to disguise, then the same method of catagorization would reveal the process of disguise.

 

[BBB167893]

It's just a flesh wound.

You can't win Dave. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

Brave of you. But I thought you'd learned your lesson.

Who is this finest living handwriting expert? Is there an analysis online or I can d/l?

Unfortunately, the analysis was taken off-line some time ago. Damn shame too, because I really wish you could have seen it.

But I know who the expert is: Gideon Epstein, former head of document examination for the Immigration and Naturalization Service. If it weren't for him, a lot of Nazi war criminals would have remained undetected here in the US. I don't know of anyone who has ever spoken against his skill.

What about other handwriting experts who said that PR cannot be matched to RN?

Well, thereby hangs a tale, voynich. Not even the experts she and JR HIRED could say that she didn't write it. But I'll get to that, don't you worry.

http://jonbenetramsey.pbworks.com

# American Board of Forensic Document Examiners. The only recognized organization for accrediting forensic document examiners is the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners ("ABFDE"). (Defs.' Mot. In Limine 68; Epstein Dep. At 36.)" (Carnes 2003:50-51).

First of all, voynich, you needn't quote the wiki page to me. I helped WRITE it, okay?

Secondly, the Carnes ruling is about as trustworthy as a cobra, for several reasons. I didn't devote an entire chapter to it for nothing, you know!

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Epstein, Larry Ziegler and Richard Williams are all members of the ABFDE (damn good ones, from what I understand) who have gone on record as saying that they are very disappointed with the organization; that it's become too inflexible and closeminded with too much emphasis on group-think.
But I'll go into more detail on that later on.

"Error Rates: Professionals vs. Non-Professionals. "A study by Dr. Moshe Kam indicates that professional document examiners had only a 6.5% error rate compared to an error rate of 38.3% for nonprofessionals"

which means your handwriting examiner might be wrong 6.5%

Well done.

No BPD-Hired Experts Identified Patsy as RN Author. "During the investigation, the Boulder Police Department and Boulder County District Attorney's Office consulted at least six handwriting experts. (SMF P 191; PSMF P 191.) All of these experts consulted the original Ransom Note and original handwriting exemplars from Mrs. Ramsey. (SMF P 205; PSMF P 205.) Four of these experts were hired by the police and two were hired by defendants. (SMF P 191; PSMF P 191.) None of the six consulted experts identified Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note. (SMF P 195; PSMF P 195.) [Emphasis added.]

I'm afraid it's not quite that simple, voynich.

* Numerous Significant Dissimilarities Rule Out Patsy. "The two experts hired by defendants both assert that this evidence strongly suggests that Mrs. Ramsey did not write the Note. (SMF P 254.)" (Carnes 2003:26). "Defendants' experts base their conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey is not the author of the Ransom Note on the "numerous significant dissimilarities" between the individual characteristics of Mrs. Ramsey's handprinting and of that used in the Ransom Note. (SMF P 247.) For example, defendants asserts Mrs. Ramsey's written letter "u" consistently differs from the way the same letter is written throughout the Ransom Note. (SMF P 248.)" (Carnes 2003:27).

Oh, the experts hired by the Rs said so! Well, that's it then! Yeah, I'll buy that for a buck.

* Expertise of Examiners. The expertise and high ethical standards of these experts was summarized by Darnay Hoffman, an attorney for Chris Wolf, who sought to prove that Patsy Ramsey was the note writer, in a fax to Tom Miller, a handwriting expert he had hired (see below): "I spoke with handwriting expert Paul A. Osborn...He refuses to touch the Ramsey case with a ten foot pole. His reasons: he knows the handwriting experts who gave their reports to the defense team and to C.B.I.--four in all. According to Osborn these experts are supposedly top of their field (he won't give me their names) with impeccable ethical credentials. Their verdict: the similarities between Patsy and the ransom note writers handwriting is at the very lowest end of the spectrum, i.e., there is little or no basis for match."

I guess it makes no nevermind to you that the experts Osborn spoke to were defense hires? Or that he himself has had a few professional gutterballs in recent years? (The Black Dahlia mess leaps to mind.)

Experts Consulted By BPD/BDA (6 experts inclusive of 2 hired by Ramseys)
Richard Dusak
* Dusak Findings. "Richard Dusick (sic) of the U.S. Secret Service concluded that there was "no evidence to indicate that Patsy Ramsey executed any of the questioned material appearing on the Ransom Note." (SMF P 200; PSMF P 200.)" (Carnes 2003:26, note 14).
* Qualifications. Dusak is a member of the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners. According to ABFDE: "The American Board of Forensic Document Examiners (ABFDE) is the only certifying board sponsored by the American Society of Questioned Document Examiners, the Canadian Society of Forensic Sciences, The Southeastern Association of Forensic Document Examiners, the Southwestern Association of Forensic Document Examiners, and is recognized by the American Academy of Forensic Sciences."

Again, NOT that simple. Allow me to quote from chapter nine:

But in Perfect Murder, Perfect Town, Schiller writes that he made his decision early on before the experts had a full range of Patsy Ramsey's exemplars to work with. And it has been wondered just how much document analysis he actually performs, since it's not his primary duty. As Chet Ubowski, the examiner from the Colorado Bureau of Investigation and the man who did the most extensive analysis said, they would need "the full range of her handwriting."

Now, in case you're wondering about that bit concerning how much actual document analysis he performs, I did a little research. Apparently, his primary duty when he was with the Secret Service was operating a computer database.

Leonard Speckin
* Speckin Findings.
1. Unable to Eliminate. "Leonard Speckin, a private forensic document examiner, concluded that differences between the writing of Mrs. Ramsey's handwriting and the author of the Ransom Note prevented him from identifying Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note, but he was unable to eliminate her. (SMF P 198; PSMF P 198.)" (Carnes 2003:26, note 14). Speckin's report stated: "When I compare the handwriting habits of Patsy Ramsey with those in the questioned ransom note, there exists agreement to the extent that some of her individual letter formations and letter combinations do appear in the ransom note." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:9-14) "When this agreement is weighed against the number, type and consistency of the differences present, I am unable to identify Patsy Ramsey as the author of the questioned ransom note with any degree of certainty. I am, however, unable to eliminate her as the author." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:25 through p. 139:1-6).

Another thing it helps to remember is that a lot of these were preliminary reports done early on, whatever that does for you. Unofficially, Speckin conceded that the odds of anyone breaking into the home and having as many similarities as PR did was astronomical.

I notice you left Chet Ubowski out. He's quite conspicuous by his absence. Can't imagine why that could be, since he did one of the most extensive analyses. Just an oversight, I'm sure. Well, not to worry, I'll get to that in due time. Just like you and I will have to square up on Tom Miller pretty soon.

Others Who Could Not Be Eliminated
Overview
* Carnes Opinion. "Other experts believe the Ransom Note may have been authored by other people. In addition to Mrs. Ramsey, there were other individuals "under suspicion" who had their handwriting analyzed and who were not eliminated as the possible author of the Ransom Note. (SMF P 205; PSMF P 205.)" (Carnes 2003:30).

I hate to be the one to break this to you, voynich, but they couldn't be eliminated by the DEFENSE hires.

Speaking of which, doesn't it bother you that the Rs have never released the reports done by their own experts or ANYONE else? They've released everything else, but not that. Let me tell you a little story: during the depositions in the Wolf civil suit, Darnay Hoffman told LW that all he had to do was produce the handwriting reports. If they really did say what the wiki claims they said, it would just about put him out of business. LW promised to do exactly that, but it never happened. A clue as to why that did not happen may be found in the deposition. Wood claims that he asked Hal Haddon, the Ramsey criminal lawyer for the reports before the suit began, but Haddon wouldn't give them to him. Haddon cited Grand Jury secrecy laws. In mid-2001, Hoffman got a judge to rule Colorado's Grand Jury secrecy laws unconstitutional. Wood tried again after that ruling, and Haddon still wouldn't give them up. As late as 2006, Hoffman mentioned how they STILL had not produced those reports. Just something to think about.

If there is no consensus, then adding forensic linguistic analysis is a tie-fighter.

Yeah, that's what Alex Hunter thought. Right up until he got the one answer he desperately wanted to avoid. I notice you haven't addressed that. Maybe you will later.

Maybe you can help me with something. Did Gerald analyze the note against verbal statements of the Rs? I know he did against their writings (or as many as he could get), but what about the things they said?

Forensic linguist with the ninjato v.s Handwriting expert with claymore

I feel we're playing a forensic document equivalent of who is the deadliest warrior?

Unfortunately, you may be right!

 

[BBB167893]

It does show though that some aspects of his writing resembles the RN -- meaning that a match to PR may be of limited value since it could as well match perhaps 10% of the population.

That's pretty much the IDI "wildcard" explanation anytime a similarity is pointed out.

 

[voynich]

The force is strong in this one.


If you read Gerald's analysis, he's looking for PR's stylistic hand writing habits, including misspellings, punctuation, whether and when she uses contractions can not, cannot, can't, (which would presumably show up if JR dictated it to him) so presumably oral statements written down and typed would not be helpful.

FYI as a rational human being yes not disclosing information is not helpful. so yes it would bother me.

 

[Holdontoyourhat]

Go wildcards!

 

[BBB167893]

also, voynich,

ty for compiling that overview list of expert analysis.

You ain't seen nothing yet!

ie does one expert's conclusion negate another of opposite position?

I guess that would depend on the circumstances, Tadpole. Lot of different factors involved there.

if we're left with only the forensic linguistic material, to be touted as the definitive, then we must consider the limitations of method, and the arbitrary aspects of the model.

:clap: Thank you for putting what I've been trying to say into words.

with respect to McMenamin "he studies the material, makes a preliminary attribution, and then seeks to find evidence of his preliminary finding basing his attribution on whether he does in fact find the necessary evidence."

Doesn't sounds quite cricket to me. (Sophie will know what that means!)

The model operates under the premise that there is no attempt at disguise.

So .... I wonder to what degree are catagories of idiolect and appearance represented/weighed within the format; format, punctuations, misspellling, profanity, how are these aspects are weighed within the model, are they attributed with an equal value.

if the rn was an attempt to disguise, then the same method of catagorization would reveal the process of disguise.

Tadpole, you truly are a diamond in the rough. I have a question of my own. Were any verbal statements made by the Rs used in the comparison? The reason I ask is because (and PLEASE, someone correct me if I'm wrong) I was informed that linguistics is based on the premise that we write the way we speak, and that everyone's pattern is unique. You'll see where I'm going with this later on. For now, it's just important that I know.

 

[voynich]

Go wildcards!

Wasn't the Sith Lord here wanting more mavericks?

One thing that McMerman does do in his anlaysis is access a database of 350 samples of writers in Colorado (yes I know that R's are not originally from Colorado), to get the frequencies of certain stylistic markers in the RN from the general population as a comparison or normalizing reference. So for two markers to be present, as standardized by his reference it's 14-17%.

What are the distinctive handwritten markers shared by PR that are also present in the RN, and what % of the population in Colorado would have similar markers?

 

[voynich]

Tadpole, you truly are a diamond in the rough. I have a question of my own. Were any verbal statements made by the Rs used in the comparison? The reason I ask is because (and PLEASE, someone correct me if I'm wrong) I was informed that linguistics is based on the premise that we write the way we speak, and that everyone's pattern is unique. You'll see where I'm going with this later on. For now, it's just important that I know.

From my reading, and others may correct if I'm wrong, he compared PR's writing samples before and after the crime, including those a dictated RN, both left and right hands. His tables show how PR stylistic preferences contrast w/RN.

 

[BBB167893]

The force is strong in this one.

You'll find I'm full of surprises.

If you read Gerald's analysis, he's looking for PR's stylistic hand writing habits, including misspellings, punctuation, whether and when she uses contractions can not, cannot, can't, (which would presumably show up if JR dictated it to her) so presumably oral statements written down and typed would not be helpful.

Got it. (Lot of presuming going on.) Seems a bit limiting to me. There is a method to my seeming madness, and I think you deserve an explanation. The reason I ask is because I first became aware of Gerald back in 2002 when I watched a CourtTV piece on handwriting and linguistics (nothing to do with this case, incidentally). Now, the way the narration explained it was that linguistics is based on the idea that we write the way we speak and that everyone's "style" is different. (He didn't argue.) Now, upon hearing that, I got to thinking. I started seeing a few patterns emerge in the way the Rs speak. There used to be a website that had this long (and I do mean LONG) list of times when both Rs have used phraseology that corresponds with the RN. I have a term for it: "ransomspeak" In fact, I even wrote down one such instance in chapter nine:

Patsy Ramsey, when deposed, used the phrase "not particularly", again straight out of the ransom note. The ransom letter phrase is "The two gentlemen looking over your daughter do (and the word "not" was inserted here with an inverted v) not particularly like your daughter."

And it wasn't just once. She said it four different times. That's why I ask.

FYI as a rational human being yes not disclosing information is not helpful. so yes it would bother me.

Easy, voynich. I'm sorry if I seemed to come down a little hard on you. All I needed was you answer and now I have it.

 

[BBB167893]

Go wildcards!

LOL! And I figured you didn't have a sense of humor!

Thanks for giving me a good laugh, HOTYH.