Since I was banned, I'm a little late on this one, still, let me say a few things to the subject of profiling, even it is not specific to the LISK case:
Profiles don't catch killers - definitively true.
Profiles are computer files or sheets of paper. They normally don't run out with a pair of handcuffs to arrest people. Cops have to read them and act accordingly.
- Profiles create and narrow down suspect pools
Example: In the case of Richard Chase Trent, the profile said, the unsub would be highly delusional and therefore not able to stray far from his home. Consequently, that meant, someone would know him in the area and it would be a good idea to provide as much information as possible to the public which would probably come back with a tip. And Ressler was right, the tip came, Trent was arrested. So what the profile actually did, was to narrow down the hunt to an area of some blocks and provide the public with information for what to look out for and where.
- Profiles provide non-obvious information
Example: Wayne Williams was an African-American serial killer in an African-American community. But nobody even looked for a black man. People "knew" there are no black SKs. The usual blah blah blah. The profile said, the unsub would be African-American, male, with a history of pretension of being law enforcement or something else trustworthy and he may used a ruse as some kind of music producer or someone with contacts to that business. Of course, it was not Douglas, who went and slapped some cuffs on Williams, cops did that. But the profile was what led the cops to him.
- Profiles are a tool to predict actions
Example: When the heat was on, my own profile said, Abuelazam would run. Since I had prfiled him as brown (as in Middle-Eastern brown), I had an idea whereto he would flee and given his MO before, it was clear he would go the direct way if possible. Well, he got arrested on the airport, a few minutes before he checked in to his flight to Israel. And since I am pretty sure, I never sent my profile to Flint PD (I posted it on Yahoo though), I can conclude, that police acted on another profile saying the very same thing. Because there was no forensic evidence, no witness, no other thing, that could have led police to that airport that day.
On a trivia side note here: I got some hundred death threats from Yahoo posters who weren't happy that this back then unknown killer wasn't a white supremacist at all. Which maybe explains my ambivalence about threats of being banned for saying uncomfy things.
- Profiles produce a glance on the personality of an offender or offenders
Example: The Magnotta case. Since we have a thread for that one somewhere, I don't need to type the history down here.
- Profiles put use of means and behavior together
Example: In the case of Robert Hansen, Hazelwood predicted, the unsub would have a plane at his disposal (not unusual, we talk Alaska in this case), a speech impediment, probably stuttering, and he would have money. He would be not too tall and appear non-threatening. Now all of that describes Hansen very well. They key point was the plane however. Because the plane and the flight plan was, what later gave enough probably cause for the search warrant to search his house where police found enough evidence to get Hansen convicted. This evidence was found, where and in the form, the profile predicted.
- Profiles help to prepare prosecutors
Example: Again Wayne Williams. The guy was all the time total calm and peaceful during the trial. He tried to pretend to be basically unable to violence. Till Douglas, who had in his profile also analyzed the personality of the unsub who wasn't un- anymore, used this to press his buttons.
So, bottom line, profiles do a lot, they only don't go out and arrest people. Cops have to act accordingly to make the arrest. And since there are so many, who make jokes, who don't think, profiles are something helpful, there is also a long list of cases, where police better would have listened to profilers, but they didn't.
Example: Dennis Rader had a "career" of some decades. Despite the fact, that already after his third attack a profile existed. This profile was written by someone outside of law enforcement, so nobody even dreamed of using it. And more, Wichita hadn't involved the BAU (I think, they were back then still labeled BSU). So when they did, years later and with Rader still free, the profilers went over the case files and found the old profile. Years had passed, all leads recommended for follow up were cold in the meantime, one key person, which the old profile predicted would know the killer but no know he is a killer, had died in the meantime from cancer ... well, the profile was accurate (the FBI profilers basically took it and actualized it) but cops knowing all profiles are only head exercises by people who don't know sh** had sit on it for so long, that the killer was free some more decades. An important point here was also, that profiles very often recommend to provide information to the public and that is not what classic investigators like. Very often, when police listens to profiles and go out to the public, results happen fast. Trent was arrested after four days, Graham took ten days till he gave up because he couldn't move anymore without being reported to the police as sighting.
On the other hand, when classic investigators take over and they don't listen, well, Dahmer killed for years and nobody even noticed an SK in the area, Gacy was reported by an escaped victim as someone who had try to kill a young man, but those smart cops sat on their rear even when the victim and friends had already dragged the solved case virtually to the police's doorsteps (I have the case on my website). Uusally, without profiler's and the public's help, SK cases take years, if not decades.
Perhaps, that was a fortunate...
