Hurricane Dean

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englishleigh said:
We had Opal in 1995 blow through here as a Cat-2 and that wasn't very fun....Ivan in 2004 as a Cat-1......so no, I don't want that, just a tropical storm, thank you, that will suffice!!! :hand:
Click to expand...
--yeah I remember Opal,caused a lot of severe damage up there, very bad storm
 
uhaD_2_640x480.gif


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...ove&stormNum=3
 
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad


Dean has continued to strengthen this morning...with occasional
glimpses of an eye in infrared satellite imagery and cloud tops
colder than -70c near the center. Satellite intensity estimates
are 65 kt from TAFB and SAB...so Dean is upgraded to the first
hurricane of the 2007 hurricane season.


The initial motion is 280/21. Dean is on the south side of adeep-layer ridge...which large-scale models forecast to buildwestward during the forecast period. This building ridge isforecast to push aside a mid/upper-level low currently east ofFlorida...and should this happen that system would have littleinteraction with Dean. The pattern evolution should keep Deanmoving quickly westward to west-northwestward through the forecastperiod. The track guidance is in good agreement with thisscenario...and the models are very tightly clustered around a trackthrough the Caribbean Sea to near the Yucatan Peninsula in fivedays. The new forecast track is basically an update of theprevious package....and is in best agreement with the variousconsensus models.
There appears to be little to keep Dean from strengthening throughthe forecast period. The SHIPS model calls for the system to reach115 kt by the end of the period...while the experimental lge modelis calling for 127 kt. The GFDL calls for Dean to become a majorhurricane over the western Caribbean...although oddly enough itcalls for little change in strength during the first 60 hr of theforecast. The intensity forecast has been nudged upward for thefirst 96 hr in good agreement with the SHIPS model.
 
Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive 000WTNT34 KNHC 160913TCPAT4BULLETINHURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTEDNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007...CORRECTED WARNINGS......DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THEISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. AHURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHINTHE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICALSTORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDSLATER THIS MORNING.AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HASISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORMWARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHINTHE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HASISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORMWATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGINISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESSOF DEAN.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OFMARTINIQUE.DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THISMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTIONSHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS.
DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILLINVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70MILES...110 KM.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLENEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUMAMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE INASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100AM AST.$$FORECASTER BEVEN
 
800 Am Ast Thu Aug 16 2007

...strengthening Dean Speeds Toward The Lesser Antilles...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Islands Of Dominica
And St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Continues For The Islands Of Martinique...
Guadeloupe And Its Dependencies...saba...and St. Eustatius. A
Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within
The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. Hurricane Or Tropical
Storm Warnings Will Likely Be Issued For Some Of These Islands
Later This Morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Barbados. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

At 800 Am Ast...1200z...a Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued By
The Meteorological Service Of Antigua For The Islands Of
Montserrat...antigua...st. Kitts...nevis...and Barbuda. A Tropical
Storm Watch Remains In Effect For St. Vincent And St. Maarten. A
Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.
Hurricane Or Tropical Storm Warnings Could Be Issued For Some Of
These Islands Later This Morning.

Interests Elsewhere In The Lesser Antilles...the Virgin
Islands...puerto Rico...and Hispaniola Should Monitor The Progress
Of Dean.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

At 800 Am Ast...1200z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 13.5 North...longitude 53.3 West Or About 415 Miles...
665 Km...east Of Barbados And About 510 Miles...820 Km...east Of
Martinique.

Dean Is Moving Quickly Toward The West Near 24 Mph...39 Km/hr...and
This Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. This
Motion Should Bring The Center Of Dean Near The Lesser Antilles On
Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To 80 Mph...130 Km/hr...with
Higher Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-
Simpson Scale. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The
Next 24 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will
Investigate Dean This Afternoon.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70
Miles...110 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 985 Mb...29.09 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...is Possible
Near The Center Of Dean.

Storm Total Rainfalls Of 2 To 5 Inches...with Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 7 Inches In Mountainous Areas...are Possible In
Association With Dean. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening
Flash Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 800 Am Ast Position...13.5 N...53.3 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...987 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Blake/avila
 
You guys are doing so great with keeping us updated-thank you! I don't even have to leave websleuths to check on the storms now-this is awesome!
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
 
I sure hope it stays down there, I am just not ready to go through another one. Geez............
 
We'll be just fine BB but Jamaica Caymans and the Yucatan may be in for some problems--Dean is looking pretty awesome right now--100 mph gusting to 115--Monday they say Dean may hit 140 mph
 
Peter Hamilton said:
We'll be just fine BB but Jamaica Caymans and the Yucatan may be in for some problems--Dean is looking pretty awesome right now--100 mph gusting to 115--Monday they say Dean may hit 140 mph
Click to expand...
Some forecasters even said as high as 180mph--can you imagine??
 
Well it looks as if it is going to miss the Galveston areas! Good deal for us!:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: I hope everyone stays safe.:angel:
 
Hurricane takes aim at Caribbean Islands

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - Islanders went door to door Thursday to warn neighbors of Hurricane Dean, which spun toward the Caribbean packing 100 mph winds and threatens to strengthen into an extremely dangerous storm by next week. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season is expected to pass over St. Lucia and the rest of the Lesser Antilles early Friday, then intensify as it enters the warm waters of the Caribbean. It was too early to tell whether the storm would eventually strike the United States.

St. Lucia's acting prime minister, Stephenson King, announced that the country's two commercial airports were closing Thursday night as the storm's outer bands began moving through the islands. Martinique's main airport was also closed. "We may not be spared on this occasion as it appears that we are likely to experience the worst," King said.

Walter Lech, a medical resident from Boston vacationing in Dominica, said he learned about the hurricane Wednesday when he saw islanders pull boats from the water. Lech and his wife could not find flights off the island and plan to ride the storm out in their rented cinderblock house. "We're going to take the brunt of it full on, but our neighbors here have been through it (before) and they're not all that worried," Lech said.

About 300 American medical students from Dominica's Ross University were stranded at the island's airport Thursday until family members hired private planes, said Dr. Mauricio Gomez, from the UCLA Medical Center in California, whose fiancee was among the students. Most arrived in Puerto Rico to await flights on Friday bound for the United States, Gomez said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070817/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/caribbean_hurricane_dean
 
While all the news is focused on Dean, I read in a blog there are several other waves coming off Africa. Please stay tuned for more.
 
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