Hurricane ERNESTO-Cat 1 expect Cat 3 after leaving Cuba /Heads up FLORIDA, MERGED

[Peter Hamilton]

We are having a beautiful pinkish sunrise this morning--red sky in the morning,sailor take warning

 

[Beyond Belief]

Its beautiful out this morning.........I see pink too. lOl

I'm a little concerned abt the power going out, however, it was still 82 late last night. Thats going to be miserable without power.

 

[Beyond Belief]

800 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 215 MILES
...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
SQUALLY RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1161685

 

[Pharlap]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone



Click image to zoom in


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/121151.shtml?3day

Guess it's show time next update...It's just off of Cuba -1005 mb's
It appears the planes will be tracking every hour or 2 til it hits Florida.
An update will be coming in just a few minutes...

11am update, Ernesto moving to the west....look out Keys..

 

[Shadow205]

I am really concerned about the path that this storm is taking. It looks as though it is going to pass over Lake Okeechobee. The amount of rainfail that is forcast could pose a huge problem with the Herbert Hoover Dike. For those not familiar with it, take a look at this article.

South Florida Dike Poses "Grave Danger," Engineers Say

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

August 15, 2006
An alarming engineering report on the 140-mile (225-kilometer) dike around Florida's Lake Okeechobee has prompted emergency management officials to prepare evacuation plans for 40,000 residents living near the lake.

Consulting engineers Leslie Bromwell, Robert Dean, and Stephen Vick wrote in their April report that the Herbert Hoover Dike "poses a grave and imminent danger to the people and the environment of south Florida."
The engineers say the dike, which is about 250 feet (76 meters) wide at its base, could fail during a hurricane or even if the lake level becomes too high.
<snip>
Flooding from the lake, which is almost as big as Rhode Island, could kill hundreds. Lake water would cover tens of thousands of acres and possibly contaminate water supplies for nearby West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami.
<snip>
If the lake water reaches 21 feet (6.5 meters) above sea level, the dike will undoubtedly fail, the engineering report says. If it reaches 18 feet (5.5 meters), the chances of failure are about 50 percent.

more at the link http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060815-florida-dike_2.html

 

[BarnGoddess]

I am really concerned about the path that this storm is taking. It looks as though it is going to pass over Lake Okeechobee. The amount of rainfail that is forcast could pose a huge problem with the Herbert Hoover Dike. For those not familiar with it, take a look at this article.

South Florida Dike Poses "Grave Danger," Engineers Say

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

August 15, 2006
An alarming engineering report on the 140-mile (225-kilometer) dike around Florida's Lake Okeechobee has prompted emergency management officials to prepare evacuation plans for 40,000 residents living near the lake.

Consulting engineers Leslie Bromwell, Robert Dean, and Stephen Vick wrote in their April report that the Herbert Hoover Dike "poses a grave and imminent danger to the people and the environment of south Florida."
The engineers say the dike, which is about 250 feet (76 meters) wide at its base, could fail during a hurricane or even if the lake level becomes too high.
<snip>
Flooding from the lake, which is almost as big as Rhode Island, could kill hundreds. Lake water would cover tens of thousands of acres and possibly contaminate water supplies for nearby West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami.
<snip>
If the lake water reaches 21 feet (6.5 meters) above sea level, the dike will undoubtedly fail, the engineering report says. If it reaches 18 feet (5.5 meters), the chances of failure are about 50 percent.

more at the link http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060815-florida-dike_2.html

Shadow, I know my grandmother and mother both volunteered through the Red Cross in both the 1935 storm in the Florida Keys and also the storm that hit the lake. That storm surge from the lake killed thousands back then. That was pre-dike.

I have been on the lake many times. I remember going through locks at times when the lake was high and when the locks were open because of very low levels. (These locks control the amount of water into the canals and into the Everglades.) I can remember when the lake level was extremely low, then when the inner rim was very visible as dry land. Then a year later that area was completely under water. I would hope that all the locks would be opened so that the lake doesn't overflow.

I think the lake dike is in far better shape than the one in New Orleans. Remember New Orleans is below sea level and Okeechobee is not.

 

[Beyond Belief]

The path moved to the west a little so maybe it continue moving. Lake Okeechobee does present a problem

 

[BarnGoddess]

The path moved to the west a little so maybe it continue moving. Lake Okeechobee does present a problem

Is the lake full now? How has the recent rain affected it? I heard that Florida was recently in a severe drought. The level of the lake would certainly make a difference if there were a storm surge.

 

[Peter Hamilton]

shadow,Lake O is NOT i any danger whatsover of spilling its banks or levees giving way--the Lake is only at 12 feet,it would have to be 18 feet for any concern--We are 9 inches below rainfall this season

 

[Peter Hamilton]

Ernesto looks like its getting its act together on the visible satellite

 

[gardenmom]

Hey, ya'all. I'm new to this hurricane thing. Can someone please explain to me if and when the hurricane is expected in North Carolina? I'm kind of on the outer banks.

 

[Pharlap]

Ernesto looks like its getting its act together on the visible satellite

Just looked at those from the map link...
Thanks Hamilton for saying something, hadn't looked at them before.
Boy Ernesto is a sorta BIG, WIDE storm....:banghead:

Update should be coming shortly...

 

[BarnGoddess]

shadow,Lake O is NOT i any danger whatsover of spilling its banks or levees giving way--the Lake is only at 12 feet,it would have to be 18 feet for any concern--We are 9 inches below rainfall this season

Thank you, Peter, for that information.

 

[Pharlap]

This is sort of a neat map...
Last night one of the channels did say they were looking at ANOTHER cluster of winds besides Ernesto, but never did an update....
Can only put the link up, won't let me copy


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=138

 

[Peter Hamilton]

Gardenmom,its heading your way also.supposedly--but not until Fri I think--keep an eye out since it could redevelop into a hurricane by then

 

[Glow]

Amraan where are you?

I am getting worried since you are the first WSer in Ernestos path!

Can you check in and let us know you are ok?

 

[Shadow205]

shadow,Lake O is NOT i any danger whatsover of spilling its banks or levees giving way--the Lake is only at 12 feet,it would have to be 18 feet for any concern--We are 9 inches below rainfall this season

Peter,
glad to hear that the level is so low on Lake O. Don't get locked in to that 18ft being the safety zone though.
• In 1984, the corps reported water seeping through the dike near Pahokee and South Bay. At the time, the lake was at 16.5 feet above sea level, well below the maximum the corps thought the dike could hold (which is 18ft)

Lake Okeechobee has been a concern of many citizens over the years and unfortunately the repairs have not been done that need to be done. Many fear that someday the result will be catastrophic. Very interesting reading about Lake O at the following link. It is a speacial report the Palm Beach Post did called "20 Years Of Warnings" it includes more than 30 articles written over the years. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/reports/2006/lakeo_dike.html

 

[Pharlap]

Ernesto has turned into a PANSEY...hehehehe
Good for Florida.......:clap:

 

[BarnGoddess]

The second deadliest Hurricane. From Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Atlantic_hurricane_season

snipped the part about Okeechobee:

Okeechobee Hurricane

Main article: 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane The most notable storm of the season was the Okeechobee Hurricane (or San Felipe Segundo Hurricane). This Cape Verde-type hurricane was the first recorded hurricane to reach Category 5 intensity in the Atlantic basin. It began strengthening rapidly as it crossed the Leeward Islands, killing hundreds in Guadeloupe. Next it slammed into Puerto Rico as a devastating Category 5 storm, causing catastrophic damage and killing at least 300. Hundreds more were killed throughout the rest of the Caribbean and Bahamas before the hurricane came ashore near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm. Despite the catastrophic damage that resulted along coastal southeast Florida, relatively few deaths were reported in those areas; the storm's deadliest blow was on Lake Okeechobee as the eyewall crossed. The dike holding back the waters burst and a of flooding water was sent rushing through into the Everglades and lake towns. At least 2,500 people died in Florida in what is the United States’ second deadliest hurricane and second deadliest natural disaster. The storm eventually its days as an extratropical storm over western New York that dissipated out over Lake Erie in Canada near Toronto.

I said earlier the "thirties". My mother and grandmother drove up here to assist the Red Cross in 1928. The 1935 storm was in the Keys.

 

[Sundayrain]

That was well written Barngoddess......I remember reading about the Lake Okeechobee overflowing its banks, during that big storm.
It could happen again if some huge hurricane went to that direct area.
Lucky this storm is not too bad in Florida, thank goodness.
Today we were under a Tornado Watch until 8PM......That is rare for my area but, I sure didn't like seeing that running across the screen.
At this rate I will have to resupply the bunker (basement actually)
with lots of water and...... hummmm coffee!