Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[CARIIS]

ok!

11 o'clock advisory out -- so we can all get caught up jeezzzzz

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Florence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak
intensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased
a few millibars down to 943 mb.

However, the aircraft data do
indicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with
the 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the
northeast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite
imagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in
the eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past
hour or so.

In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive
and continues to expand everywhere except to the south.

Florence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has
been no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually
on top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a
result, no changes were required to the previous NHC track.




little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On
the current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be
near the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South
Carolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west-

There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to
strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and
highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest
between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow

morning. After that, decreasing ocean
heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should
cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which
should induce a gradual weakening trend.

Once Florence reaches the
shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more
significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening
process.

The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher
statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the
decay SHIPS model after that time.


Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion

 

[CARIIS]

chad

it was kinda like the atmosphere just went ka poof and told her:

go wherever ya want!!

but ya know what it looks like her forward motion after landfall has speeded up

if ya look it does look like we are seeing the stall any longer -- what do you guys think is that accurate in your veiw?

this looks better (if there is such a word) too!

48H 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST

what struck me was the "near the coast" so doesn't that mean not landfalling yet??

 

[Inthedetails]

ok!

11 o'clock advisory out -- so we can all get caught up jeezzzzz

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating
Florence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak
intensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased
a few millibars down to 943 mb.

However, the aircraft data do
indicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with
the 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the
northeast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite
imagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in
the eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past
hour or so.

In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive
and continues to expand everywhere except to the south.

Florence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has
been no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually
on top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a
result, no changes were required to the previous NHC track.




little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On
the current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be
near the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South
Carolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west-

There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to
strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and
highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest
between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow

morning. After that, decreasing ocean
heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should
cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which
should induce a gradual weakening trend.

Once Florence reaches the
shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more
significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening
process.

The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher
statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the
decay SHIPS model after that time.


Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion

After reading all that, I'm still not sure when landfall is expected. ?? Help me out! (I know it will be a range, not a specific hour.)

jmo

 

[zencompass]

If a million evacuates as the state officials are telling them to then that million will not need Fema supplies now since they will be out of the effected areas.

Our daughter and her family evacuated yesterday. They are in a safe place in another state.

I trust Fema and I believe they are far more competent in handling storms in our country than prior ones.

Dear Oceanblueeyes,

I am so glad to hear that your daughter moved to a safe place. What a relief you must have felt. Thousands of loved ones of those evacuating must share your relief and great concern.

Along with everyone else, I continue to be very worried about everyone in that area.

This is such a frightening situation to me so I cannot imagine what the residents there are going through.

My hearts are with them all.

 

[Jax49]

Hurricane Florence could delay landfall until Saturday

 

[JerseyGirl]

The storm, as of 11 a.m. ET, was located about 485 miles southeast of Wilmington and 520 miles east-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, moving northwest at 15 mph. Florence is still forecast to make landfall in North or South Carolina. But the prediction previously had called for a move north.

"The NHC track has been adjusted southward ... and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

Hurricane Florence path turns south, likely 'storm of a lifetime' for Carolinas

 

[zencompass]

We felt the same way with Sandy. We had no where to go and I wasn't leaving my pets behind (I know it's silly to think, but if you have pets you understand). There was 1 shelter open that was pet-friendly but we needed crates. We don't crate our dog so we don't have one. We have 2 cats and neither one have crates. I wasn't going to go out and spend $$$ on crates, besides my pets would freak out if they were crated for days in a room with other pets.

We thought about leaving and started looking into hotel rooms but even the fleabag motels over hundred miles away in a bad area (the only availability) was over $200 a night (price gouging at it's finest). In the meantime you are spending $$$ on securing your home - including finding and laying out money for plywood, cutting and nailing them to windows, getting extra gas and food, buying $500 generators (if you can find'em), etc. Not only that, but after the power is out you are forced to eat out at restaurants, again an expense - sure The Red Cross came around once a day with a hot meal, but after a week you can't stomach that food anymore.

So, we stayed. If a Cat 2 or higher came, we probably would have packed the car up, drove to Pennsylvania and slept in a rest area.

It's not easy, it's not cheap. I feel for the 1.5 million people who have evacuated. It's going to be a long, long road ahead - not gonna lie.

As far as the mortgage, I kept paying mine but I think if you were affected you could call and they might have been able to waive a month or two, same with credit cards. The last thing anyone who has come home to a destructed home is to worry about paying bills - when you know you will be spending $$$ out of pocket until that first insurance check arrives.

Dear JerseyGirl,

Thank you so much for your genuine and realistic view of the situation people face.

Your sharing of your experience is invaluable and greatly compassionate.

Explaining the obstacles you faced in the same situation, greatly helps me understand what people go through.

I am so grateful that you are on this thread.

 

[CARIIS]

After reading all that, I'm still not sure when landfall is expected. ?? Help me out! (I know it will be a range, not a specific hour.)

jmo

I want you to help me out !!

The official deal just posted is the official deal

I don't know where all the shift is coming in -- like to the degree they are talking about in the media -- all of em wobble but when i woke up it felt like oh Jax may have to flee!

I dont know why the media is doing this

up to this morning the last stuff we got was the stall - that was it it stalled- there was no modeling after the stall -- so why now is this all being called a massive change?

I dont feel like I am saying this right

If our plan on a trip is to go to the stop light and wait

and then we decide to make a right

how is everyone calling that this big change

all we had agreed upon was to go to the light and stop

that is why they shifted to the cone -- it used to be always just a line -- they changed so people would quit thinking oh i am not in the line and so i am fine

how is this this breathtaking change (I was reacting to what I was hearing the talking heads say!0

isnt this exactly what is happening?

 

[Inthedetails]

Hurricane Florence could delay landfall until Saturday

Managing this has got to be sooo hard. If there isn't any gas/groceries in the area, it will hard to stay for another couple of days. But leaving now, days ahead of time, means more expenses for individual families as well as more time in shelters for those who don't have anywhere else to go.

Very hard to manage.

jmo

 

[Inthedetails]

I want you to help me out !!

The official deal just posted is the official deal

I don't know where all the shift is coming in -- like to the degree they are talking about in the media -- all of em wobble but when i woke up it felt like oh Jax may have to flee!

I dont know why the media is doing this

up to this morning the last stuff we got was the stall - that was it it stalled- there was no modeling after the stall -- so why now is this all being called a massive change?

I dont feel like I am saying this right

If our plan on a trip is to go to the stop light and wait

and then we decide to make a right

how is everyone calling that this big change

all we had agreed upon was to go to the light and stop

that is why they shifted to the cone -- it used to be always just a line -- they changed so people would quit thinking oh i am not in the line and so i am fine

how is this this breathtaking change (I was reacting to what I was hearing the talking heads say!0

View attachment 146846

isnt this exactly what is happening?

The stoplight analogy is a good one!

 

[SuziQ]

Where is thing headed?

 

[CARIIS]

The storm, as of 11 a.m. ET, was located about 485 miles southeast of Wilmington and 520 miles east-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, moving northwest at 15 mph. Florence is still forecast to make landfall in North or South Carolina. But the prediction previously had called for a move north.

"The NHC track has been adjusted southward ... and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

Hurricane Florence path turns south, likely 'storm of a lifetime' for Carolinas

but look!!

we are getting forward movement -- not this sit somewhere for days - that is wonderful if I am thinking this correctly

by sunday she is a tiny little baby!

I am not saying there are not big problems ahead -- but on the forward motion part I think that is positive

after landfall the best thing is to do is get her tushie off the water!

 

[JerseyGirl]

Dear JerseyGirl,

Thank you so much for your genuine and realistic view of the situation people face.

Your sharing of your experience is invaluable and greatly compassionate.

Explaining the obstacles you faced in the same situation, greatly helps me understand what people go through.

I am so grateful that you are on this thread.

Thank you. Funny, I just got off the phone with an inspector from the NJ Department of Community Affairs. My contractor abandoned the project a few months ago and took off with my payments totaling $80,000, in addition to about $50,000 worth of damage by removing a section of the house and destroying all the heating, A/C systems and w/d. On top of that, I just learned my house is suffering from water damage and other problems since it's been sitting on cribbing for a year now (We are lifting the house 10 feet above the ground).

So.... not only do people have to deal with the storm and the aftermath, watch out for crooked contractors. From what I learned, there was a convey of some of them that came up from Katrina and the one's from NJ saw dollar signs. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them are now setting up shop in the Carolinas.

 

[Inthedetails]

Thank you. Funny, I just got off the phone with an inspector from the NJ Department of Community Affairs. My contractor abandoned the project a few months ago and took off with my payments totaling $80,000, in addition to about $50,000 worth of damage by removing a section of the house and destroying all the heating, A/C systems and w/d. On top of that, I just learned my house is suffering from water damage and other problems since it's been sitting on cribbing for a year now (We are lifting the house 10 feet above the ground).

So.... not only do people have to deal with the storm and the aftermath, watch out for crooked contractors. From what I learned, there was a convey of some of them that came up from Katrina and the one's from NJ saw dollar signs. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them are now setting up shop in the Carolinas.

What the heck?! I am very dismayed to hear you're having to deal with that. It's lower than lower to be a predator in a disaster.

Grrr.....

 

[Al Hoffman]

fema is doing a briefing shortly but clip about it coming was they (not sure what location) have over 200 (200) somewhere. There is more security at a concert for 12000 people,

Currently, FEMA is more like advisors who come in to provide advice and assistance to the experienced State operations in place, and to expedite requests for Federal assistance. FEMA has learned its lession. For a small number of FEMA operatives on the ground at the time of a storm be thankful. As I have described above about FEMA's heavy handed flooding of New Orleans with Federal Protective Service security after H. Katrina.

Armed ex-military Blackwater Security FPS personel were providing security at the FEMA public assistance offices at the Jewish Community Center on St Charles Ave. Armed ICE agents responded when the Blackwater FPS agents called for assistance.

When you stepped up in line to the back of the big green army truck for your MREs and water, a FPS guard or National Guardsman armed with an automatic weapon was standing there, in the truck, to keep the crowd in control, just in case. At times the weapon was pointed at the docile line. There was a reason that General Honere was on Canal St. yelling "Weapons Down". (BTW, this happened on my Dad's old Foot Patrol Beat as a Downtown New Orleans Police Department Traffic Cop at the river end of Canal St.)

My Stepson and I were in the New Orleans area at the time of the storm. Myself before and after in Jefferson Parish. He through the whole ordeal, as he tried to evacuate with his family after the storm and could not get out.
He was down at the Morial Convention Center, at one point. He says that it was as bad as reported in the media. He did not like having guns pointed at him, especially by people paid for by his tax dollars.

Most all of the above was reported by the NOLA city newspaper, The Times-picayune.

Please, be careful what you wish for!

 

[Lilibet]

Managing this has got to be sooo hard. If there isn't any gas/groceries in the area, it will hard to stay for another couple of days. But leaving now, days ahead of time, means more expenses for individual families as well as more time in shelters for those who don't have anywhere else to go.

Very hard to manage.

jmo

Yesterday I posted about my friend in northern N.C. west of Edenton on the Chowan River who was evacuating to Maryland with two horses and a cat. I thought she was en route, but this morning I heard from her and because of the shift south they’ve decided to stay put. She says it will just be a tropical storm for them. She’s smart and cautious, but I hope there are no more shifts to cause her to regret her decision. In any case, this will be horrible for lots of people. I can’t imagine.

 

[CARIIS]

You know what I think is going on here. Is the talking heads are being hysterical.

In the history of mankind no hurricane forecast has ever predicted a landfall as a dot.

its like 100 miles this way that way

lets think about their hysteria

the evacuated all three states -- so this drastic change they are breathlessly breaking into is BS

cone of probability means cone of probability!

her wingspan at this time is 500 miles --

I think they are doing all the poor people in this mess a disservice

if a 500 mile wide man (!) side stepped in a mall (!) .....................................

they need to stop

we all are following this -- can you imagine someone in a car on the interstate hearing this

if she turned around and is heading toward toward Paris -- that is story- this is a hurricane ....being.........a.......hurricane

 

[zencompass]

I find the following space website interesting and educational:

Hurricane Florence Isn't Alone: 4 Powerful Storms Seen from Space in 1 Day


More photos from space of Hurricane Florence can be found here:

Hurricane Florence in Photos: See the Massive Storm from Space

 

[CARIIS]

Yesterday I posted about my friend in northern N.C. west of Edenton on the Chowan River who was evacuating to Maryland with two horses and a cat. I thought she was en route, but this morning I heard from her and because of the shift south they’ve decided to stay put. She says it will just be a tropical storm for them. She’s smart and cautious, but I hope there are no more shifts to cause her to regret her decision. In any case, this will be horrible for lots of people. I can’t imagine.

I dont know there scene

would you pls ask your friend if she was already on the fringe of the hurricane? Nothing has changed as it relates to landfall.

here they are again CNN the track has changed

the track has not changed until after landfall

there is a difference

 

[oceanblueeyes]

At this point in time their warnings are to expect winds around 55 mph -


I think that is why!!

I don't think it is like a heroic thing !

Camp Lejeune (@camp_lejeune) | Twitter

I think its based on common sense too. Plus military bases must have someone there at all times. It would be such an tremendous endeavor to evacuate over 40K Marines and their families. There are five different Marine Bases in Jacksonville, NC.

They may move all of the aircraft and secure them in another more secure location. The Marine base there has weathered other hurricanes before. Many of the buildings are made of solid concrete blocks or are made of brick.

I am sure they are allowing any Marine family to evacuate as long as they know where they will go. Our son evacuated twice due to hurricanes when he was stationed in Jacksonville NC. He, and others went inland and were in regular contact with the base.

I did read an article this morning that some of the Marines from Jacksonville have been evacuated to a Georgia Marine base. Those are probably from New River Air Station (air crews) who flew the large helicopter fleets into an area which is not in the path of the storm.