Hurricane Humberto - Sept 2019

[JerseyGirl]

Several tropical waves exist with the potential to develop tropical maturity over the next five days including a new system that spawned Monday night near the Cabo Verde Islands.

The system closest to Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near Hispaniola. It’s expected to move over the Bahamas and Florida between Thursday and the weekend. The storm has a 50 percent chance of tropical development within that time, and 10 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours.

However, NHC meteorologists are expecting little from the storm due to environmental conditions being unfavorable.

It will produce rain across a wide swath of Florida regardless of tropical formation. The current NWS forecast has Lakeland experiencing rain Friday straight through Monday night, each day ranging in the 60% to 70% range with thunderstorms possible.

Just west of the storm, the second disturbance lying in the mid-Atlantic has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 2 to 5 days. The system, currently near the Lesser Antilles, is expected to encounter upper-level winds diminishing its chances of organizing itself into a tropical depression.

The third tropical wave, which developed Monday evening near the Cabo Verde Islands, has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next five days as it heads toward the Lesser Antilles.

If any of the systems should organize into a tropical depression it will be the ninth recorded depression of the year. If it then grows to maintain at least 39 mph sustained winds, it would become Tropical Storm Humberto.

Humberto remains possible to form as system targets Florida

 

[PayrollNerd]

Already worried for my daughter who is a marine scientist, headed offshore from Clearwater today. Scheduled to dock in Key West on Sunday. I’ve become quite the weather hawk again. (Uploaded her texts to me)

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post just now.
Flhurricane.com

There is a wide area over the Southeast Bahamas now that has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and only 20% before then. Those in the Gulf should watch it closely. Those in the Bahamas and south Florida can expect some squally weather later this week, but the shear is strong enough to likely keep anything from intensifying quickly, at least before Florida. Back side rain bands will likely expand into Central Florida also as it moves into the Gulf in the weekend.

Once in the Gulf there is a better chance for it to form into a tropical storm or depression, but right now anything stronger seems unlikely--caveat it is September so it could change-- So the northern Gulf coast from about the Florida Panhandle west toward Louisiana should be monitoring this for late this weekend or early next week.

Two other areas have a low chance to develop, 10% near the lesser Antilles, and 20% further east. The later likely will have to be watched beyond the 5 day timeframe more closely.

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This
disturbance is accompanied by a large but disorganized area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend or early next week when the system is moving over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[momrids6]

No thanks. I've already had my share of storm fatigue. This one is heading towards my oldest and his wife.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post tonight. Thinking my girl is going to have a bumpy ride out on the gulf.
Flhurricane.com

The area in the southern Bahamas has a 70% change to develop over the next 5 days, although it is most likely to remain weak. It has a 50% chance to develop over the next 48 hours. We'll be watching it closely.

Those in the Bahamas and south Florida can expect some squally weather later this week, but the shear is strong enough to likely keep anything from intensifying quickly, at least before Florida. Back side rain bands will likely expand into Central Florida also as it moves into the Gulf in the weekend.

Once in the Gulf there is a better chance for it to form into a tropical storm or depression, but right now anything stronger seems unlikely--caveat it is September so it could change-- So the northern Gulf coast from about the Florida Panhandle west toward Louisiana should be monitoring this for late this weekend or early next week.

Two other areas have a chance to develop, one has lowered to near 0% near the lesser Antilles, and 40% further east. The later likely will have to be watched beyond the 5 day timeframe more closely.

800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This weak
disturbance is accompanied by limited shower activity that has
been gradually diminishing today. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Chances of a tropical depression or storm forming soon continue to increase as a tropical wave approaches Florida.

It's one of two disturbances in the Atlantic worth monitoring closely over the next week to 10 days, as both have at least some chance of impacting the U.S. coast, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, co-founder and chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
National Hurricane Center says tropical depression or storm likely as system approaches Florida, Bahamas

 

[imstilla.grandma]

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) on Twitter

 

[PayrollNerd]

Looks like the trajectory is more north or northeast this morning.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post today about 9:00am EST. The Bahamas don't need any more rain to add to their misery. I hope they have set up some tents to shelter the people waiting to evacuate.

Flhurricane.com

The area near the southern Bahamas, tracked as Invest 95L, is slowly becoming more organized and now has an 80% chance to develop or the next 5 days (70% in the next 48 hours). It'll bring rainfall and winds to the Bahamas, including the areas affected by Dorian. Therefore it is likely that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later in the day so that tropical storm watches/warnings may be issued for parts of the Bahamas or Florida. Direct impacts to Florida are not guaranteed, as the models are varied on what happens with this area (And don't do well with forming storms). So it will have to be monitored. Areas getting some wind and rain is very likely, although there is very little to suggest that it would strengthen rapidly -- watch it closely over the next day or so to see.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits Facebook post just now. Levi Gowan is starting to put out more info.

Tropical Tidbits

The tropical disturbance in the Bahamas is expected to become better organized today and tomorrow, and a tropical storm could potentially form as soon as Friday. NHC gives a 70% chance of this occurring by Saturday morning.

The disturbance is currently broad, and where exactly it consolidates will determine where a potential storm would move. In most scenarios, the system would at least approach Florida during the weekend, so people should monitor the situation.

It's too soon to know what impacts might be felt in the northern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula other than heavy rainfall, which will occur in these areas regardless of whether the system develops.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane's Facebook post a few minutes ago:
Flhurricane.com

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Levi Cowen's evening video - minus the drama!

Tropical Tidbits

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post 30 min ago. They use Levi’s videos too. YouTube link:

Flhurricane.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane’s Facebook post yesterday at 11:00pm EST.

Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm watches are now up from Jupiter north the the Volusia/Brevard county line (Between Cape Canaveral and New Smyrna Beach) for a storm that has not yet developed, referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. If it gets named (which is forecast by late tomorrow night/Saturday), it would be called Humberto. The forecast has landfall around Saturday night along the east central Florida coastline. Expect heavy rain and some winds, along with short lived tornadoes if the system track remains as forecast. There is a possibility that the storm could slow down and rain for a while in parts of Florida or Georgia.

Based on the official forecast, Shear should keep any development in check for 36 hours, but there likely will be enough time for it to develop into a moderate level tropical storm before landfall.

Since this storm has not fully developed things may change, so keep watch on it *very* closely tomorrow.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. Note that forecast uncertainty for these
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.

 

[JerseyGirl]

The watch that was issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward on Thursday has been extended to reach the Volusia-Brevard County line in the Daytona Beach area.

No watches or warnings are currently issued for Broward, Miami-Dade County or the Keys.

Tropical Storm Humberto expected to form on path to Florida; watches issued for part of state’s east coast

Along with the system moving through the Bahamas, the hurricane center is monitoring two other tropical waves including one that just emerged off the coast of Africa.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane's Facebook post a few minutes ago. Really happy to see it going east. This will mean less contact with land and people.

Flhurricane.com

The system known as potential tropical cyclone #9 seems to be forming east of the forecast point, so it appears likely the track may shift right (away from land) more than in this forecast, and it may be likely that the forecast changes in speed as well. Forecasts before the storm actually forms tend to have more error. It seems more likely Florida won't see any direct impacts from the storm, other than a few rain bands and rough surf along the coast. So it's important to watch what's going on as the situation still is very dynamic.

If the system slows down it may get trapped by a building ridge and may do a loop offshore, so it could be around a lot longer than indicated currently in the forecast. It'll be something to watch, but direct impacts to Florida don't seem to be likely this weekend, but it's important to monitor this for changes.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Further east is such great news! It’s been windy here in Sarasota County, FL most of the day.

Track Shifts; Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding in FL Possible
Update Includes Big Changes to Potential Cyclone's Track | The Weather Channel
From The Weather Channel iPhone App

 

[PayrollNerd]

Levi’s Friday night video:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday Evening, September 13th, 2019

 

[PayrollNerd]

Right where that red mark is..... that’s the area my kid is.... on an research vessel. Ugh.

 

[?mysterian?]

National Hurricane Center

----------------
Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory

800 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

+++++++++++++++

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE