Hurricane Irma - #2

[margarita25]

This is Tampa https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=tampaskan

(Marking)

 

[Henry2326]

As predicted NHC forecast 11:00 moved slightly east....

The official track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/101450.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

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[weepingangel]

Is anyone in / near Cape Coral? Just wondering how things are there now Thanks


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[Elley Mae]

Hurricane Irma knocks down crane arm in Miami

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/we...irma-miami-crane-collapse-20170910-story.html

 

[SeesSeas]

Nice colors:
http://www.baynews9.com/content/new...ticles/bn9/2017/9/9/irma_curfew_times_fo.html

 

[Henry2326]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHH
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt. Thus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity is retained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensity until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the Florida peninsula.

Increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricane during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma moves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner.

The official intensity forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours and the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embedded within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the southeastern United States over the next couple of days.

The track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a little to the left and slower than the other models. The official track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion.

2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United States. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour, will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.

Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding.

Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 81.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.6N 82.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 33.8N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1200Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/101450.shtml?

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[JerseyGirl]

Lee County pulling emergency responders off roads - Germain Arena still accepting those seeking Shelter

Low-lying neighborhood streets were starting to fill up with runoff that was not running off, particularly around the Imperial River.

Germain Arena is still accepting people at 10 a.m.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...blog_nav_updates_child&utm_term=.9ab44e702b9c

 

[popsicle]

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miami77

Down below you can choose other views.

 

[Jax49]

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miami77

Down below you can choose other views.

I'm watching Lauderdale-By-The-Sea.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

 

[Redux]

Is anyone in / near Cape Coral? Just wondering how things are there now Thanks


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My brother is there. His wife posted a video about an hour ago - wind picking up, raining really hard, but not near the worst yet.

 

[weepingangel]

My brother is there. His wife posted a video about an hour ago - wind picking up, raining really hard, but not near the worst yet.

Thank you [emoji106]


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[MaryG12]

Oh wow - some major winds out there

Something tells me I won't be going to work tomorrow!

We're watching "The House That Dripped Blood" on DVD, an Amicus film (UK) horror anthology with Denholm Elliott, Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee. It's one of my favorites.

 

[Lilibet]

I'm praying for all in FL to remain safe, no matter where they are riding this out. A special thanks to Henry for the informative hurricane posts and to Jersey Girl for posting about shelters. You are doing a great service. Hugs to you both and to all who are in Irma's path or have loved ones in its path. This is why I come to WS to follow all major news events. There have been so many contributing to the thread so we can get an accurate picture from many sources and I know that will continue in the ugly aftermath. Thank you all! Peace to all. :heartbeat:

 

[GigTu]

I'm watching Lauderdale-By-The-Sea.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

I'm glad you still have power. Keep safe.

 

[Jax49]

I'm glad you still have power. Keep safe.

Thank you. I do expect to be without at some point if we get hurricane force gusts, which is the last prediction I saw. Hopefully it won't take a week to get it back but I am not in a high priority area.

 

[Jax49]

https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906903109749891073

NWS Key West‏Verified account @NWSKeyWest [video=twitter;906903109749891073]https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906903109749891073[/video]More



Storm Surge remains a significant threat for the Keys. As the west winds continue storm surge could increase to 5-10 ft above ground level.

 

[MaryG12]

Power is flickering, not sure how much longer it is going to stay on....

 

[popsicle]

I'm watching Lauderdale-By-The-Sea.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

First, I want to say I have had very little sleep lol. I clicked on Riviera Beach and was watching the water and I wasn't sure if it was wood floating or 2 legs... the wood had pieces on them so it looked like feet and it also looked like a possible body just below the surface. Then, you could see all these fish sort of jump and sometimes like they were biting/eating at something.

I looked to see again what cam view this was... who would I call and what would I even tell them and I wanted you guys to look at it for me, too. Well it switches the manatee cam when you click that view :lol: I think that is wood floating in there tho.

 

[popsicle]

Major surge coming in on Fox

 

[popsicle]

[FONT=&quot]Ann Keil‏Verified account @ann_keil [video=twitter;906904566486257664]https://twitter.com/ann_keil/status/906904566486257664[/video]More


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[FONT=&quot]viewer cell phone video taken from JW Marriott Marquis Miami@WSVN #miami #HurricaneIrma #stormsurge #jwmarriott
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