Hurricane Nate - October 2017

[MelmothTheLost]

It has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ophelia Monday (Oct. 9) morning.

Ophelia's center was 860 miles west-southwest of the Azores. It is moving north-northeast at 5 mph, with sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's current track poses no threat to land.

Orphelia is expected to turn northeast later Monday. Motion toward the east-northeast and east is expected to occur Monday night, and forecasters added that Orphelia will turn east-southeast Tuesday.

The storm is expected to experience "some strengthening" during the next 48 hours.

Atlantic storms headed into Western Europe sometimes undergo rapid deepening when they hit the Bay of Biscay. That's what happened in 1987.

That was fun. Not. I was living in East Anglia at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

 

[JerseyGirl]

Tropical Storm Ophelia to Become Record-Tying 10th Straight Atlantic Hurricane Soon, Then an Intense Post-Tropical Storm off Ireland Next Week

Ophelia could brush by the Azores this weekend. Ophelia could then become a post-tropical cyclone early next week near the Irish Coast.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-10-11-tropical-storm-ophelia-hurricane-azores

 

[Henry2326]

Give us a break, Henry. This has been a long, horrible season so far.

I'm at your command.
Nothing in the forecast right now....for real. YAY!

Although Mike's Weather Page says:

"Wave pushing towards the Bahamas and South Florida later this week. Nothing official from the NHC to watch. Rainmaker yes... will watch."

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

A cat2/cat3 storm is headed toward U.K. Current models show a stronger hurricane than originally forecasted a couple of days ago. Currently the NHC model isn't aligned with current forecasts from GFS and EURO. Likely they will align in the next day or 2.

http://spaghettimodels.com

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...uv850&runtime=2017101112&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=0

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[MelmothTheLost]

A cat2/cat3 storm is headed toward U.K. Current models show a stronger hurricane than originally forecasted a couple of days ago. Currently the NHC model isn't aligned with current forecasts from GFS and EURO. Likely they will align in the next day or 2.

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That CMC model may be an outlier but it's a worry - Melmoth Towers would take a direct hit.

 

[Spellbound]

Oh dear; Melmoth, I am assuming you are in that area of Melmoth Towers? Keep close watch and stay OK, please.

Henry :loveyou:.... do you enjoy following weather reports? you do so well to bring us the reports. You need your own weather station setup!

I heard last night the death toll has risen to 45 in Puerto Rico, mainly due to contaminated water sources. It is likely to keep climbing, unfortunately.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Oh dear; Melmoth, I am assuming you are in that area of Melmoth Towers? Keep close watch and stay OK, please.

Thank you. :giggle:

Melmoth Towers is simply my 'umble abode. I could just as easily have referred to it as Melmoth Manor.

It's not a manor and has no towers.

Unfortunately.

 

[Spellbound]

Thank you. :giggle:

Melmoth Towers is simply my 'umble abode. I could just as easily have referred to it as Melmoth Manor.

It's not a manor and has no towers.

Unfortunately.

thanks for the giggle! Our homes are our castles/manors, as long as we are happy in them! :hug: Hope you don’t have to deal with horrid weather conditions in the coming days.

 

[JerseyGirl]

A weak surface trough mixed with an old tropical wave is moving west across the Bahamas. Movement will continue to be to the west with no significant surface development.

A strong tropical wave is far to the east of the Lesser Antilles but will likely struggle to move very far to the west in the end.

"Ophelia" went hurricane Wednesday afternoon over the Northeast Atlantic. The storm will slowly move east before turning northeast & accelerating toward the weekend. Though no longer tropical, the storm is expected to lash Great Britain & Ireland next Tue. & Wed. as a big ocean - extra-tropical - storm with strong winds.

http://www.actionnewsjax.com/weathe...cane-tropical-wave-near-the-bahamas/623555064

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Hi Henry

I notice that Ventusky.com is showing a second system SE of Greenland and SW of Iceland. The current projected track puts Ophelia passing to the south and east of that system. Is there any danger they might collide and if so what's likely to happen please?

 

[Henry2326]

Hi Henry

I notice that Ventusky.com is showing a second system SE of Greenland and SW of Iceland. The current projected track puts Ophelia passing to the south and east of that system. Is there any danger they might collide and if so what's likely to happen please?

Hi Mel- all 3 forecast models are very consistent. Nothing shows a collision, only back to back lashing. The storms are lined up and flow through the same pattern.

Hope you are safe and dry...

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[Henry2326]

Oh dear; Melmoth, I am assuming you are in that area of Melmoth Towers? Keep close watch and stay OK, please.

Henry :loveyou:.... do you enjoy following weather reports? you do so well to bring us the reports. You need your own weather station setup!

I heard last night the death toll has risen to 45 in Puerto Rico, mainly due to contaminated water sources. It is likely to keep climbing, unfortunately.

Awww thanks Spell. I watch weather from pure respect of the damage it can do....mostly hurricanes. Glad to see you again.

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[Henry2326]

NHC Update of Ophelia is consistent with the other 3 models. Intensity projected at cat1/cat2, with landfall on 10/16 (Canadian) or 10/17-18 (all others).

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[MelmothTheLost]

NHC Update of Ophelia is consistent with the other 3 models. Intensity projected at cat1/cat2, with landfall on 10/16 (Canadian) or 10/17-18 (all others).

Well if the Canadians are right I'm going to get another birthday present from Odin.

The Great Storm of 1987 fell on my birthday as well.

:cake4u:

 

[Henry2326]

Well if the Canadians are right I'm going to get another birthday present from Odin.

The Great Storm of 1987 fell on my birthday as well.

:cake4u:

Happy early BD!!! Let's hope they are wrong this time!!!

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[Spellbound]

Awww thanks Spell. I watch weather from pure respect of the damage it can do....mostly hurricanes. Glad to see you again.

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You are good! You might also be interested in the California wildfires happening now. Such another horribly catastrophic weather-related devastation happening. Thousands of acres already burned, and 400+ missing (perhaps they left without contacting authorities), cadaver dogs being brought in, many deaths already reported — and the fires rage on.

We have several members affected by the fires, and a thread at http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...undreds-Missing-Over-1500-Buildings-Destroyed

Well if the Canadians are right I'm going to get another birthday present from Odin.

The Great Storm of 1987 fell on my birthday as well.

:cake4u:

that’s one birthday gift you don’t need! Sure hope all stays safe and secure for you. happy early birthday, Melmoth! :gift:

 

[Henry2326]

You are good! You might also be interested in the California wildfires happening now. Such another horribly catastrophic weather-related devastation happening. Thousands of acres already burned, and 400+ missing (perhaps they left without contacting authorities), cadaver dogs being brought in, many deaths already reported — and the fires rage on.

We have several members affected by the fires, and a thread at http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...undreds-Missing-Over-1500-Buildings-Destroyed



that’s one birthday gift you don’t need! Sure hope all stays safe and secure for you. happy early birthday, Melmoth! :gift:

Hi Mel....the other 2 are coming around to the Canadian thought. Canadians still forecasting 10/16. EURO has split the difference to 10/17 and GFS now likes 10/16.

Canadians and EURO forecast a cat2. GFS has it at a cat3.

Its currently at hurricane strength and should stay there until landfall.

Be safe my friend....

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[MelmothTheLost]

Hi Mel....the other 2 are coming around to the Canadian thought. Canadians still forecasting 10/16. EURO has split the difference to 10/17 and GFS now likes 10/16.

Canadians and EURO forecast a cat2. GFS has it at a cat3.

Its currently at hurricane strength and should stay there until landfall.

Be safe my friend....

Thank you.

I don't think we're going to be in the firing line. It looks as though it will pass just west of Ireland so my area will probably be no more than a bit breezy. My partner has family in Co Cork, though, and they may well see the worst of it.

 

[Spellbound]

Thank you.

I don't think we're going to be in the firing line. It looks as though it will pass just west of Ireland so my area will probably be no more than a bit breezy. My partner has family in Co Cork, though, and they may well see the worst of it.

Glad you may miss it, but I will keep your partner’s family in my thoughts and hope you can let us know how they fared when Nate moves away. Stay safe and aware, M.

 

[Henry2326]

From Mike's Weather Page today:

"Invest 92 is out there but should recurve back east."

http://spaghettimodels.com

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