Kato,
Here is some more info that might help you make your decision
Feb. 20, 2005, 12:49AM
Is Houston ready for the big storm?
Evacuees' delays may bring deadly consequences
By JOE STINEBAKER
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle
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SPECIAL REPORT
Are we ready? If the big one hits, what will happen in the Houston-Galveston area?
[/size][/font]Bill King has a vision he can't shake.
He sees long lines of vehicles -- family cars with young children in the back, pickups pulling expensive boats, and buses filled with the sick and the old -- trapped in a major traffic jam on Texas 146 or the Gulf Freeway. Behind them, a massive hurricane churns ashore.
Ahead lie washed-out bridges, flooded roads and thousands of sets of taillights. Their escape has been cut off, and time is running out.
King, Kemah's mayor, is one of many area critics who believe that lackluster evacuation planning and unrealistic expectations by state and local emergency officials could doom thousands of coastal Texans to horrific deaths when a Category 4 or 5 hurricane strikes.
"We have got to have this right, because sooner or later there's going to be a bullet in the chamber," King said. "Sooner or later, we're going to get an event. And if we do not have it right, and if we haven't been out there and practiced (an evacuation) and everybody knows exactly where they're supposed to go and what they're supposed to do, then we're going to kill a bunch of people."
An upcoming report from Gov. Rick Perry's Office of Emergency Management is expected to reject most of King's doubts. The report, according to area and state emergency officials, likely will say that the Houston-Galveston area is largely prepared for a major hurricane, although a few improvements are needed. The report is a result of nearly four months of meetings and reviews of preparedness plans for Texas coastal areas from Mexico to Louisiana.
Perry's homeland security director, Steve McCraw, headed the review. Although McCraw will not reveal his findings before turning them over to Perry, he said he was "impressed" by local evacuation plans and that he believed those plans were "more coordinated than what's been represented" by critics.
But those looking for definitive answers to whether Texas is ready for a major hurricane are likely to be disappointed. Interviews with more than two dozen hurricane and emergency evacuation experts show that no one really knows whether the Southeast Texas coast could be quickly and safely evacuated in the event of a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane. Key concerns lie in how much time is needed to evacuate, whether Texans would respond quickly enough to recommendations to flee and whether the roads leading to and through Houston could handle the surge in traffic.
In other words, we'll find out when it happens.
In only one area are the experts in agreement, and it's a disconcerting admission. State and local officials have little confidence in their ability to evacuate those without cars, living in group homes or many of the sick and elderly living alone. Plans are in the works, they say, but for now those who are most vulnerable are living on the edge of disaster.
Order of evacuation
The first to be evacuated would be residents of western Galveston and southern Harris counties, who would have to begin evacuating at least 33 hours before the storm's outer bands (containing winds of about 40 mph) are expected to come ashore. Next would be residents of eastern Chambers, eastern Galveston and eastern Harris counties (19-20 hours in advance), followed by Brazoria County (15 hours), central Harris County (10 hours), west Chambers County (eight hours) and Liberty County (seven hours).
But persuading residents that they need to leave that far in advance, when skies may still be sunny and clear, could be difficult.
Michael K. Lindell and Carla S. Prater, a husband-and-wife team at Texas A&M University's Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, designed the study of evacuation times and routes on which many officials rely. They say the evacuation times must be strictly enforced and that delays could be fatal.
"The problem is partly the misconception people have about how long it's going to take because they're relying on their personal experience," Lindell said.
People tend to think in terms of a four- or five-hour drive to San Antonio or Dallas, he said, but they need to multiply that by 10 or 20 times because of the crowds.
Complacency is another problem.
Michael Bass, a city councilman from Clear Lake Shores, told state officials at a hurricane workshop last month that, because it has been more than 43 years since a major hurricane struck the area, many residents are ignorant of the dangers and will wait until the last minute to leave.
"You basically stay because you don't know what the hell you're getting into," he said.
Eliot Jennings, the emergency management coordinator for the city of Galveston, said cooperation is the key.
more at the link
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/printstory.mpl/metropolitan/3046590
"We can do everything we can, but -- bottom line -- it's the individual out there who has to take the action," he said.
Mike Peacock, a hurricane preparedness officer with the governor's Division of Emergency Management, said the consequences of Texans' complacency would be fatal.
"If they're going to wait 12 or 24 hours to leave," he said, "people are going to die."