Hurricane Rita thread

[Buzz Mills]

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630
KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY
REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST
TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Rita Position
http://tinyurl.com/7ju9l

Hurricane Rita Projected Path
http://tinyurl.com/c4fym

Hurricane Rita Wind Forecast (in % of highest wind speed)
http://tinyurl.com/857yy

Hurricane Rita Strike Probabilities (Scroll Down)
http://tinyurl.com/dsfp5

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

The above links will update automatically, so if someone wants to include them in their future posts, they will be valid for that time.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

Size Comparison

KATRINA
Wind Speed at Landfall, 140MPH-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175MPH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB. (at landfall) 902 MB (at its lowest)

RITA
Wind Speed at Landfall, ????-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175MPH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB. (presently) 897 MB (at its lowest)
This is the 3rd lowest pressure on record-- Gilbert 888 MB, 1935 LABOR DAY 892 MB

The record low central pressure ever, for a hurricane IN the U.S., is 892 MB (the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane).

 

[Buzz Mills]

The wind speed decreased to 145mph. The overall size (tropical winds included) increased to a radius of 205 miles, but the hurricane winds radius decreased from 85mph to 60mph

 

[Dark Knight]

AccuWeather.com Meteorologists are forecasting hurricane Rita to move east of Galveston toward Port Arthur. That track will place Galveston and Houston near the western eye wall where winds will still gust over 100 mph as Rita makes landfall Friday night/early Saturday morning.

After Rita makes landfall, it will slow its forward movement and may stall across northern Texas causing catastrophic flooding. We expect hurricane-force winds to spread over a large area of eastern Texas after landfall. In fact, high-rise buildings in the Houston area could experience wind gusts to over 100 mph. This will cause windows to shatter. In addition to possible damaging hurricane-force winds, tornadoes might be spawned by the cyclonic rotation from Rita mainly east and northeast of the center of circulation. Storm surge of as high as 20-25 feet is possible along the coast near and to the right of landfall.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&area=atlantic

 

[Sassygerl]

Many schools are closing in Austin tomorrow or having early release. Not sure why...guess they don't want to take a chance. Doesn't even sound like we'll get much rain!

 

[Shadow205]

I just saw the sadest story on CNN. There is a lady who has horseback riding on the beach in Baytown,TX. She has 30 horses in a pasture and is trying to evacuate them but is running out of time. She has only managed to get 6 out so far. She is afraid that she is going to have to leave them

 

[T'sNana]

The people who are trying to evacuate are backed up in traffic for HOURS and running out of gas, car overheating....those poor, poor people!!

 

[Beyond Belief]

Oh SHadow, that is so sad. Theres no way they can come out of there without horse trailers. I wonder if they could be ridden out?


Houston Traffic Reports:
http://www.traffic.com/Houston-Traffic/Houston-Traffic-Reports.html

 

[TexMex]

The people who are trying to evacuate are backed up in traffic for HOURS and running out of gas, car overheating....those poor, poor people!!

And it's 99 degrees today!

 

[T'sNana]

You all need a break!!!! I can't imagine what everyone's demeanor is right now.

And it's 99 degrees today!

 

[Shadow205]

Oh SHadow, that is so sad. Theres no way they can come out of there without horse trailers. I wonder if they could be ridden out?


Houston Traffic Reports:
http://www.traffic.com/Houston-Traffic/Houston-Traffic-Reports.html

I don't know. I would go and ride one out if I could.

 

[TexMex]

You all need a break!!!! I can't imagine what everyone's demeanor is right now.

Gotta be frustrating to move 15 miles in 5-6 hours with your gas getting low and none to buy anywhere and sitting in 100 degree heat with kids, dogs, cats, luggage, no bathrooms...........

Glad I stayed put.....tequila helps :woohoo:

I like to cook so I got out some venison to cook tonight and I'm making a big pot of chicken and dumplings for tomorrow---guess I can see if any neighbors are hungry!

 

[Shadow205]

Gotta be frustrating to move 15 miles in 5-6 hours with your gas getting low and none to buy anywhere and sitting in 100 degree heat with kids, dogs, cats, luggage, no bathrooms...........

Glad I stayed put.....tequila helps :woohoo:

I like to cook so I got out some venison to cook tonight and I'm making a big pot of chicken and dumplings for tomorrow---guess I can see if any neighbors are hungry!

OK, now you did it! That is my favorite food. Rita or not I'm on my way. I'll bring more Tequila!

 

[LovelyPigeon]

Where do all those people caught in hours and hours of traffic go to use the bathroom?

 

[TexMex]

OK, now you did it! That is my favorite food. Rita or not I'm on my way. I'll bring more Tequila!

Whoop! Thanks Shadow---I have plenty of limes and salt still...

Yep, a good pot of chicken n dumplings is worth braving a storm for!

My sweet ol Grandma used to make them for me whenever I'd visit her so I finally got her to show me how.....

Used to make me a chocolate pie every Thanksgiving---rolled out the crust and made the best meringue.......

 

[T'sNana]

I hadn't even thought of THAT!!

Where do all those people caught in hours and hours of traffic go to use the bathroom?

 

[deanws]

Where do all those people caught in hours and hours of traffic go to use the bathroom?

The traffic is at a stand still. They just get out of the car..walk to the nearest gas station. It is crazy. My friends are just outside of Houston. They have been on the road 23 hours. They left from I-10 in Baytown. Talking about crazy.

 

[Shadow205]

Whoop! Thanks Shadow---I have plenty of limes and salt still...

Yep, a good pot of chicken n dumplings is worth braving a storm for!

My sweet ol Grandma used to make them for me whenever I'd visit her so I finally got her to show me how.....

Used to make me a chocolate pie every Thanksgiving---rolled out the crust and made the best meringue.......

Wow. My Mom makes me chicken & dumplins every time I go to her house. Just had some last weekend! Believe it or not, she makes me a choclate pie for Thanksgiving & Christmas.

 

[concernedperson]

Where do all those people caught in hours and hours of traffic go to use the bathroom?

I would imagine all dignity is lost and you just go at the side of your car and hope no one takes a pic of you.

 

[GonzoReiter]

It's a good thing they did start the evacuation a couple of days early here...the "plan" needs some "fine tuning", to put it in the kindest terms.

Major wake-up call for this metro area and hopefully any similar entity to take a close look at that section of their disaster plans.

 

[LovelyPigeon]

They just get out of the car..walk to the nearest gas station.

Well, good luck to them! I can't imagine I could walk the miles between exits on an interstate to a bathroom at a gas station, much less the far between state rest stops.

I think concernedperson is more apt to be right that dignity must be put aside and roadsides have to be used for makeshift toliet use.

No matter what the excellence in planning, it never seems to be adequate for the actual situations.