Hurricane Rita thread

[tybee204]

Read Here

DALLAS - Drivers, homeowners, airlines and businesses will end up paying higher fuel bills if Hurricane Rita magnifies the damage last month's Hurricane Katrina inflicted on the oil-refining industry.
Most of the refineries on the Texas and Louisiana coasts were shut down Thursday, and oil and natural gas rigs stood empty on the Gulf of Mexico as Rita bore down on the heart of the nation's energy industry.

Ken Stern, managing director of FTI Consulting, which advises refineries on business strategy, predicted $4 a gallon at the pump for gasoline within two weeks.

Story at link

 

[tybee204]

Rita's long-term impact on US oil unknown

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The worst case scenario for U.S. oil and gas infrastructure after Hurricane Rita reaches land could have gasoline supplies strained further than they already are and prices reaching record levels, some analysts said on Thursday.
Other analysts say prices have the "Rita effect" built in and that once the storm clears land, refineries will come back, imports will start to arrive and prices will decline.

But until Hurricane Rita reaches land, the impact it has on U.S. Gulf Coast energy infrastructure and on the price of gasoline and heating oil remains a wildcard.

Red here

 

[deanws]

Rita's long-term impact on US oil unknown

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The worst case scenario for U.S. oil and gas infrastructure after Hurricane Rita reaches land could have gasoline supplies strained further than they already are and prices reaching record levels, some analysts said on Thursday.
Other analysts say prices have the "Rita effect" built in and that once the storm clears land, refineries will come back, imports will start to arrive and prices will decline.

But until Hurricane Rita reaches land, the impact it has on U.S. Gulf Coast energy infrastructure and on the price of gasoline and heating oil remains a wildcard.

Red here

A wildcard in a game that I am sure we all wish not to play.

 

[txsvicki]

I think we are learning that evacuating a Major City is virtually impossible.

I don't understand why someone didn't open up the 3 lane road going the other direction and let people go out that way also. Texas is still as hot as hell and I can't imagine being stuck out on that highway for hours and hours with no air conditioner.

 

[Buzz Mills]

I don't understand why someone didn't open up the 3 lane road going the other direction and let people go out that way also. Texas is still as hot as hell and I can't imagine being stuck out on that highway for hours and hours with no air conditioner.

It's even hotter on the highway, just from the road absorbing the heat, not counting all of those heaters (cars) heating the air up even more. Talk about misery. They did finally open the incoming lanes to outgoing traffic, but it took them all day to do it.

 

[tybee204]

[B]Rita could equal $5 gas[/B]

The timing and strength of the latest storm could cause worse spike at the pumps than Katrina did.
September 22, 2005: 3:49 PM EDT
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/22/news/economy/rita_threat/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

[Buzz Mills]

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER
TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND
FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE WATCH
IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...
525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Hurricane Rita Projected Path
http://tinyurl.com/dpgwx

Hurricane Rita Projected 5 Day Cone
http://tinyurl.com/7mrr3

Hurricane Rita Strike Probabilities (Scroll Down)
http://tinyurl.com/dsfp5

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

Hurricane Rita Tropical Winds Forecast (in % of highest wind speed)
http://tinyurl.com/b9vap

Rita Hurricane Winds Probability
http://tinyurl.com/blayb

Rita Tropical Winds Probability
http://tinyurl.com/b2k6f

Hurricane Rita Position
http://tinyurl.com/7ju9l



The above links will update automatically, so if someone wants to include them in their future posts, they will be valid for that time.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

Size Comparison

KATRINA
Wind Speed at Landfall, 140mph-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175mph
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB. (at landfall) 902 MB (at its lowest)

RITA
Wind Speed Presently, 140mph-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175mph
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB (presently), 897 MB (at its lowest)
This is the 3rd lowest pressure on record-- Gilbert 888 MB, 1935 LABOR DAY 892 MB

The record low central pressure ever, for a hurricane IN the U.S., is 892 MB (the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane).

 

[deanws]

Hey guys....a movie just started. It is called Gridlocked. NOT FUNNY! Really bad timing if you ask me.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Hey guys....a movie just started. It is called Gridlocked. NOT FUNNY! Really bad timing if you ask me.

I remember that movie--it's not too bad. Sure is appropriate though. Are you getting any rain yet??

 

[Buzz Mills]

Rain Returns to Hard-Hit New Orleans Thu Sep 22, 7:59 PM ET

NEW ORLEANS - In a grim opening salvo from Hurricane Rita, a steady rain began falling Thursday on New Orleans for the first time since Katrina laid waste to the city, and engineers rushed to shore up the broken levees for fear of another ruinous round of flooding. The forecast called for 3 to 5 inches of rain in New Orleans in the coming days. That is dangerously close to the amount engineers said could send floodwaters pouring back into neighborhoods that have been dry for less than a week. There was also the risk that the storm could take a sharper-than-expected turn on its way toward Texas and hit much closer to New Orleans. "Right now, it's a wait-and-see and hope-for-the-best," Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Mitch Frazier said.

 

[Dark Knight]

(AP) It sounds like a great idea: Let's just blast hurricanes like Rita and Katrina out of the sky before they hurt more people. Or, at least weaken the storms and steer them away from cities.

Atmospheric scientists say it's wishful thinking that we could destroy or even influence something as huge and powerful as a hurricane. They abandoned such a quest years ago after more than two decades of inconclusive government-sponsored research.

Private companies have conducted tests on a much smaller scale, but have made little progress despite initially claiming to erase storm clouds from the atmosphere.

"It would be like trying to move a car with a pea shooter," said hydrometeorologist Matthew Kelsch of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. "The amount of energy involved in a hurricane is far greater that anything we're going to impart to it."

The federal government's hurricane modification program was called Project Stormfury. The idea was raised during the Eisenhower administration after several major storms hit the East Coast in the mid-1950s, killing 749 people and causing billions in damages.

But it wasn't until 1961 that initial tests were conducted on Hurricane Esther with a Navy plane releasing silver iodide crystals. Some reports indicate winds were reduced by 10 percent to 30 percent.

During Stormfury, scientists also seeded hurricanes in 1963, 1969 and 1971 over the open Atlantic Ocean far from land.

Researchers dropped silver iodide, a substance that serves as an effective ice nuclei, into clouds just outside of the hurricane's eyewall. The idea was that a new ring of clouds would form around the artificial ice nuclei. The new clouds were supposed to change rain patterns and form a new eyewall that would collapse the old one. The reformed hurricane would spin more slowly and be less dangerous.

Sometimes, the experiments appeared to work. Hurricane Debbie in 1969 was seeded twice over four days by several aircraft. Researchers noted that its intensity waxed and waned by up to 30 percent.

For cloud seeding to be successful, clouds must contain sufficient supercooled water that is still liquid even though it is below 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Raindrops form when the artificial nuclei and the supercooled water combine.

But scientists also learned that hurricanes contain less supercooled water than other storm clouds, so seeding was unreliable. And, hurricanes grow and dissipate all on their own, even forming new walls of clouds called "concentric eyewall circles."

This made it impossible to determine whether storm reductions were the result of human intervention. Project Stormfury was abandoned in the 1980s after spending hundreds of millions of dollars.

Other storm modification methods that have been suggested include cooling the tropical ocean with icebergs and spreading particles or films over the ocean surface to inhibit storms from evaporating heat from the sea.

Occasionally, somebody suggests detonating a nuclear weapon to shatter a storm.

Researchers say hurricanes would dwarf such measures. For example, Hurricane Rita measures about 400 miles across.

According to the center for atmospheric research, the heat energy released by a hurricane equals 50 to 200 trillion watts or about the same amount of energy released by exploding a 10-megaton nuclear bomb every 20 minutes.

 

[dani]

I just saw the sadest story on CNN. There is a lady who has horseback riding on the beach in Baytown,TX. She has 30 horses in a pasture and is trying to evacuate them but is running out of time. She has only managed to get 6 out so far. She is afraid that she is going to have to leave them

If it were me, I'd put saddle bags on some of them loaded with gallons of water and some sweet feed (gives horses energy and they love it), rope them all together in a line, saddle up on the horse that's head of the pecking order and lead them all out of there. Only I'd head WEST towards San Antonio and Fredericksburg. Only I'd have done this two days ago!

I can't believe these people that have the ability to evacuate and they wait until the last minute. Houston is the 4th largest city in the US. You can bet your boots many of them will put the blame the President or Gov. Perry or their local mayor for not knocking on their door and leading them by the hand to a safer place. :furious: But I'll still pray for all of them. :angel:

dani

 

[deanws]

I remember that movie--it's not too bad. Sure is appropriate though. Are you getting any rain yet??

Not yet. Light rain starting to fall in Baytown though. We evacuated about 4 hours away from there. Crossing my fingers and toes that we have a house to return to.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Not yet. Light rain starting to fall in Baytown though. We evacuated about 4 hours away from there. Crossing my fingers and toes that we have a house to return to.

How far, as the crow flies, is Baytown from the Louisiana border??

 

[deanws]

If it were me, I'd put saddle bags on some of them loaded with gallons of water and some sweet feed (gives horses energy and they love it), rope them all together in a line, saddle up on the horse that's head of the pecking order and lead them all out of there. Only I'd head WEST towards San Antonio and Fredericksburg. Only I'd have done this two days ago!

I can't believe these people that have the ability to evacuate and they wait until the last minute. Houston is the 4th largest city in the US. You can bet your boots many of them will put the blame the President or Gov. Perry or their local mayor for not knocking on their door and leading them by the hand to a safer place. :furious: But I'll still pray for all of them. :angel:

dani

Yes, I agree. They have been running bus loads for three days. There have been announcements on channel 2 news for days now...complete with numbers to call for persons needing assistance. Also the same for Baytown. People had rides out of town. On another note....announcements in the Baytown paper..............NO looting accepted for ANY REASON. Staying behind is not an excuse to loot and will be prosecuted regardless of reason. :clap:

 

[deanws]

How far, as the crow flies, is Baytown from the Louisiana border??

About 100 or so miles. We will catch part of the eye if she stays on her current predicted path.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Not yet. Light rain starting to fall in Baytown though. We evacuated about 4 hours away from there. Crossing my fingers and toes that we have a house to return to.

Forget what I just posted--I thought it was much further.

 

[Buzz Mills]

About 100 or so miles. We will catch part of the eye if she stays on her current predicted path.

The hurricane force winds have a radius of about 60 miles according to the last report, so your winds may not be too bad.

 

[deanws]

Forget what I just posted--I thought it was much further.

According to the wind patterns...it will be way more than that. We are on the boarder of where Harris county and Chambers county meets.

 

[deanws]

According to this map...we will get part of the eye. http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm