Hurricane Rita thread

[mysteriew]

Buzz, I don't know hurricanes. What happened to the eye? It is not as clear as yesterday.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Buzz, I don't know hurricanes. What happened to the eye? It is not as clear as yesterday.

The eye goes through a number of transitional processes, and rebuilds itself numerous times, during a hurricanes travels--it apparently has been in one of those stages, plus, when a hurricane starts hitting land, the increased resistance, caused by the land, will begin to change the characteristics, and shape, of the hurricane. I just learned that myself during Katrina and Rita.

METEOROLOGY
Heat helps risk go from worse to bad High pressure pushed Rita away from the most dangerous paths for Houston area.

At a time of year when the city normally welcomes its first cool front, the weather has simply been dreadfully hot. How warm? The temperature at George Bush Intercontinental Airport reached a staggering 100 degrees Thursday, shattering the old record by 4 degrees.

Turns out the heat was good for something. It saved our city. Forecasters had thought the high pressure system dominating Texas — a common summer feature that yields warm, clear days and droughts — would weaken, allowing Rita to come storming through Texas. , But the state's high pressure system was butted up against another such system along the upper Gulf Coast, stretching across the southeastern United States.

That high pressure system turned out to be the one that weakened, steering Rita away from the middle of Texas' coast toward Louisiana. "The Texas high just didn't weaken as anticipated," said Jill Hasling, president of Houston's Weather Research Center. "We got lucky."

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/front/3367701

 

[mysteriew]

Ok, so as far as the eye is concerned, it isn't a good sign or a bad sign. It just is.
And the high that made it so hot in Houston is probably what has saved it from the hurricane.
Thanks for making it simple for me. The only thing I know about weather normally is rain or no rain.

 

[JBean]

So they are announcing landfall at 3:40(5 minutes ago)..is this the first contact with land by the actual hurricane? Sabine Pass ,Texas?

 

[Buzz Mills]

]Rita's Strongest Winds Batter Gulf Coast

BEAUMONT, Texas - Hurricane Rita's strongest winds came ashore early Saturday, lashing the Texas-Louisiana line with driving rain, igniting the pre-dawn sky with exploding transformers and threatening to flood the low-lying region. The eyewall — the ring of 120 mph winds surrounding Rita's calm eye — pummeled the coastal area between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, La., according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane's eye was expected to come ashore near the largely-empty oil refining towns of Beaumont and Port Arthur, in Texas, and Lake Charles, La., with a 20-foot storm surge and up to 25 inches of rain. Its slow march spread worries it would dump nearly 2 feet of rain on flood-prone parts of Texas and Louisiana, spurring tornadoes as it churned northwest.

http://tinyurl.com/74grw

 

[Buzz Mills]

So they are announcing landfall at 3:40(5 minutes ago)..is this the first contact with land by the actual hurricane? Sabine Pass ,Texas?

No, this is the eyewall coming ashore now--the highest winds

 

[JBean]

No, this is the eyewall coming ashore now--the highest winds

I git it. Thanks Buzz gettin' my hurricane lingo down

 

[Dark Knight]

MIAMI (AP) - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say
Hurricane Rita has officially made landfall, with the storm's eye
hitting just east of Sabine Pass, Texas.

As of the last report, Rita is still a Category Three storm with
120-mile-per-hour winds but it's expected to weaken as it moves
over land.

 

[Buzz Mills]

I git it. Thanks Buzz gettin' my hurricane lingo down

That area is really catching hell--apparently a lot of the area is barely above sea level, and the storm surge is up to 20 feet, so there is going to be horrible flooding--they did say that part of that area of Louisiana is sparsely populated, so that's a break.

 

[mysteriew]

Buzz, Dark Knight Thank you both so much for staying up and keeping us updated. And for the explanations you provide to those of us who need simpler language. I really appreciate it.

 

[GonzoReiter]

Google Map Link
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[GonzoReiter]

Hurricane Tracker - Google Map Plotter
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[GonzoReiter]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica,]NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

DISCUSSION

FIRST EXPERIENCE IN A HURRICANE FOR THIS ILLINOIS BOY. PARTICULARLY MISSING HOME RIGHT NOW. SOUNDS AS IF A 747 IS SITTING UPON THE ROOF REVVING ITS ENGINES. WIND EQUIPMENT HAS FAILED HERE BUT BELIEVE WE ARE NOW SEEING WINDS POSSIBLY IN A 70 TO 90 KNOT RANGE HERE AT LAKE CHARLES. NOS GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS REPORTED A GUST TO 112 MPH...AND THEN FAILED. ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED. JUST HAD A BRIEF COMMS FAILURE BUT NOW BACK UP. UNFORTUNATELY...SINCE WE ARE NOW IN A DIAL BACKUP MODE...WILL BE UNABLE TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WILL TURN THIS RESPONSIBILITY OVER TO OUR CURRENT BACKUP OFFICE SAN ANTONIO. WE WILL MAINTAIN SHORT-TERM RESPONSIBILITY...NOWCASTS...HLS'S...TAFS...WARNINGS...AS LONG AS WE HOLD TOGETHER.

RITA CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST CAMERON PARISH ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK...AND RIGHT ON WITH NHC FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM PROGGED TO CONTINUE GENERAL MOTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

INPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LATEST MODELS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL NOT STALL ACROSS REGION...THUS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. JUST A BIT OF GOOD NEWS TO END ON.[/font]

 

[Buzz Mills]

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA MOVES ONSHORE NEAR SABINE PASS AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...CURRENTLY NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES
RITA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA
SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. AN INSTRUMENTED TOWER IN PORT ARTHUR RUN BY THE
FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 116 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. THE AUTOMATED STATION
AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
951.3 MB...28.09 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL
FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS MOVINGLY SLOWLY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...29.9 N... 93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Rita Projected Path
http://tinyurl.com/dpgwx

Hurricane Rita Projected 5 Day Cone
http://tinyurl.com/7mrr3

Hurricane Rita Strike Probabilities (Scroll Down)
http://tinyurl.com/dsfp5

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

Hurricane Rita Tropical Winds Forecast (in % of highest wind speed)
http://tinyurl.com/b9vap

Rita Hurricane Winds Probability
http://tinyurl.com/blayb

Rita Tropical Winds Probability
http://tinyurl.com/b2k6f

Hurricane Rita Position
http://tinyurl.com/7ju9l

Hurricane Rita Tracking Map
http://www.frozzbozz.net/images/rita_tracker.gif

Hurricane Tracker
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s18

The above links will update automatically, so if someone wants to include them in their future posts, they will be valid for that time.

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

KATRINA
Wind Speed at Landfall, 140mph-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175mph
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB. (at landfall) 902 MB (at its lowest)

RITA
Wind Speed Presently, 120mph-----Maiximum Wind Speed, 175mph
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB (at landfall), 897 MB (at its lowest)
This is the 3rd lowest pressure on record-- Gilbert 888 MB, 1935 LABOR DAY 892 MB, Rita 897 MB

The record low central pressure ever, for a hurricane IN the U.S., is 892 MB (the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane).

 

[GonzoReiter]

[font=verdana,arial,helvetica]Houston winds so far[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica,]OBS from Houston and so far gusts have generally been 50-60 mph. Ellington peaked at 61 mph.[/font]

Damage has been mainly from fires, in Galveston, So Houston and in Barker-Cypress where a family who had taken in a family stranded attempting to evacuate Houston lost their home to a fire last night. Of course the worst and most tragic loss was the evacuee's bus en route to Dallas that caught fire in Wilmer, TX yesterday.

 

[Buzz Mills]

Hurricane Tracker - Google Map Plotter
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Thanks Gonzo Louisiana is catching the worst of Rita--Texas lucked out.

Hurricane Rita Satellite Imagery (Patience Required)
http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy

 

[GonzoReiter]

Actual Plot w/comparison of Forecasts from Models​

http://www.frozzbozz.net/images/katrina_rita.gif​

 

[Buzz Mills]

Actual Plot w/comparison of Forecasts from Models​

http://www.frozzbozz.net/images/katrina_rita.gif​

Are those the oil platforms on the map???

 

[Buzz Mills]

I have to turn in--see everyone in the morning.

 

[GonzoReiter]

Are those the oil platforms on the map???

Rita makes Landfall @ Holly Beach, LA

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