IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[SapphireSteel]

It's actually pretty common for parents in such cases to either fail or get an inconclusive on a polygraph. The closer the person is to the victim, the more apt they are to show false deception (meaning that the person is factually innocent but the polygraph shows deception):



http://findthekids.org/pdf/casemanag.pdf

Considering that, I don't find it too odd that one or more family members showed deception on the polygraph. Statistically, close to 1 in 5 families members do. In a close extended family like the Cook/Collins/Morrissey clan, it's likely more than one will show false deception.

With due respect, the source you quoted is dated 1997.

I'm no expert but I would imagine that LDT's have advanced in the last 15 years, both in technology and interpretation.

:moo:

 

[nikb]

I am wondering about the boy fishing. Was he in a boat or fishing from shore? I am thinking of a 25 acre plot of land, it would be hard to monitor the goings on, a lake that size would be no easier, figures that distance would be small. Easier to see what is happening if in a boat floating around the lake. Sounds do travel over water, especially if there were shouts or screams. The boy was busy fishing, but it would be interesting to know what he saw and heard while he was at the lake that day.

I found the article and posted above but it doesn't help much with this question. I think he must've been on shore if Aunt T. talked to him since she was on the trail and not out in the lake. MOO. He said he didn't see the girls. Wish we knew what counts as a little boy for Aunt T. especially since it sounds like he was unattended when she talked to him. I have to think he was young but not super little. Also wish we knew what counts as a long time to this boy.

 

[GrainneDhu]

For any of you who run across stories of recent abduction attempts, white van or otherwise, I am working on creating a database with the information so you can see the variables of the different abductions and try to see if there are possibly patterns emerging. I am actively searching for all abduction events(abductions and abduction attempts) in the U.S. for the last 15 years. I am compiling data, but would love any contributions to the data that you are willing to share. There is a very simple submission form for the info, and no email address or other personal information is required.
All contributions are greatly appreciated, since it is a rather big task for me to accomplish on my own.

Here is the link to the data and submission area

http://www.thequeenofscrutiny.com/2012/08/05/data-regarding-abductions-and-attempted-abductions-in-the-u-s/

Thank you

The effort alone is noble and well worth it.

Respectfully, how are you accounting for mistaken reports? In these threads, for instance, there was a description of what was initially described as an attempted abduction. The alleged perpetrator came forward and LE determined it was a mistaken report (one thing I noticed was that the witness's story was morphing).

I think right now, people are on edge and some of the reports are mistaken.

 

[elmomom]

With due respect, the source you quoted is dated 1997.

I'm no expert but I would imagine that LDT's have advanced in the last 15 years, both in technology and interpretation.

:moo:

Actually I would be shocked to learn that they have advanced. They play little or no role on our justice system, and do not have much support in the scientific community.

 

[nikb]

There may be witnesses who wish to remain anonymous, but who are cooperating with LE. JMO

I sure hope so.

 

[Copper]

The effort alone is noble and well worth it.

Respectfully, how are you accounting for mistaken reports? In these threads, for instance, there was a description of what was initially described as an attempted abduction. The alleged perpetrator came forward and LE determined it was a mistaken report (one thing I noticed was that the witness's story was morphing).

I think right now, people are on edge and some of the reports are mistaken.

Whoa whoa whoa. The abduction attempt in Cedar Rapids was a misunderstanding?

 

[SK_Hunter]

Can you find a link, please? I never heard a report on their condition. Thanks.

Thanks for asking this. It was the reason I asked.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Actually I would be shocked to learn that they have advanced. They play little or no role on our justice system, and do not have much support in the scientific community.

I'm pretty sure the FBI would disagree with you there, which is why they still use them.

 

[Jax49]

Where did LE say the bikes were not damaged? IIRC, it's never be stated what condition the bikes were found in, but I'd sure to like know.

I'd like to see that link also. Anyone?

 

[Jax49]

Whoa whoa whoa. The abduction attempt in Cedar Rapids was a misunderstanding?

Are we confusing two attempts -- the one where the girl's face was touched and the one were three perps grabbed a boy off a bike?

 

[otto]

Heres the thing. They didn't go towards open grassy area, there were no tire tracks. They didn't go up the hill to the hwy, someone would of seen them. They didn't go up in the air. So that leaves the lake and across.

Which open grassy area do you mean? Why do you say that there are no tire tracks on the road to the sewer lift station, or on Maiden Lane?

 

[SapphireSteel]

Thanks for asking this. It was the reason I asked.

“We really have no indication what happened other than we have two bicycles sitting down at a lake,” Abben says.

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls


No doubt some will argue but I read this as

Two bikes found. That's it.

A damaged bike would give an "indication of what happened" IMO.


:moo:

 

[GrainneDhu]

Actually I would be shocked to learn that they have advanced. They play little or no role on our justice system, and do not have much support in the scientific community.

From what I have read, most of the "advances" in traditional polygraphs are made by and touted by the schools and agencies that train and provide polygraph operators. Does not inspire confidence in me.

There is a newer method utilising brain scans that shows promise, however the equipment alone can cost over $1 million and it is not at all easily portable (must be re-calibrated after each move, requires special technicians, yadda yadda yadda).

I don't see brain scans coming into common use as a LE tool any time soon.

 

[otto]

But they would have been seen...IMO.

A third scenario -

a vehicle was backed up to the gate, they jumped in voluntarily or were wrestled in.

I have always personally believed they were abducted right where the bikes were found.

How could a vehicle drive all around the lake on the bike/jogging trail without being noticed?

 

[elmomom]

I'm pretty sure the FBI would disagree with you there, which is why they still use them.

Actualllly, according to John Douglas, the main use of the polygraph is to see if the person is willing to take one, or not. Since it is strictly voluntary, the results of that request alone gives more information than most polygraphs do. Also, it has been successful in leading to a confession, but again, this is not what it was designed for. It seems, according to him, that the situational stress of the ploygraph leads a suspect to break down and confess. I am not under the impression whatsoever that the FBI, or any other LE, uses it at all to solve cases, just to intimidate.
And I would very much like a reference for your statement that inconclusive=failed. In every dictionary I have looked (3 so far), the definition of inconclusive is that it reached no conclusion. Perhaps you think that it means deception? No, it just means that the results were not consistent enough to judge one way or the other. What we commonly call a "failed" polygraph is one that shows deception. Inconclusive is just that, inconclusive.
<modsnip>

 

[GrainneDhu]

Whoa whoa whoa. The abduction attempt in Cedar Rapids was a misunderstanding?

No, no.

The one I'm referring to was the one where the girl initially said that a man got out of a white van, approached her and touched her face. I cannot find the link but the last article I read about the incident, the story had morphed to a different location and the man making a gesture towards her face.

LE identified the man involved and said it was a misunderstanding.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Are we confusing two attempts -- the one where the girl's face was touched and the one were three perps grabbed a boy off a bike?

The face toucher never actually touched her face, it was all a big misunderstanding and he was completely cleared.

The 5 year old abduction attempt is also a bit confusing, as it wasn't reported to LE for 3 hours.

In both cases, the alleged victim was a single child on their own, not a pair.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I'm pretty sure the FBI would disagree with you there, which is why they still use them.

I wonder if the FBI uses them more for the psychological effect on the subject, rather than as a fact-finding or truth-determining tool?

ETA: Elmomom said it much better than me!

 

[azuredewdrop]

Can you find a link, please? I never heard a report on their condition. Thanks.

I've never seen anything that reported there condition. The only description of the bikes that I've found came from listening to archives on radioreference.com from the day the girls went missing.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Actualllly, according to John Douglas, the main use of the polygraph is to see if the person is willing to take one, or not. Since it is strictly voluntary, the results of that request alone gives more information than most polygraphs do. Also, it has been successful in leading to a confession, but again, this is not what it was designed for. It seems, according to him, that the situational stress of the ploygraph leads a suspect to break down and confess. I am not under the impression whatsoever that the FBI, or any other LE, uses it at all to solve cases, just to intimidate.
And I would very much like a reference for your statement that inconclusive=failed. In every dictionary I have looked (3 so far), the definition of inconclusive is that it reached no conclusion. Perhaps you think that it means deception? No, it just means that the results were not consistent enough to judge one way or the other. What we commonly call a "failed" polygraph is one that shows deception. Inconclusive is just that, inconclusive.
Pease tread lightly, as your overt disdain for the family of the victims is showing.

John Douglas lost all credibility for me when he declared the Ramseys innocent.

LTD's are like pregnancy tests...it's either positive (they are telling the truth), or it's not (there is deception/attempt at deception). There's no such thing as being a little bit pregnant.

:moo: