IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[SapphireSteel]

SBM.

Totally agree. I think those bikes were either left by the girls as they were found, or staged. The location, the timing, (especially if considering TG's sighting) does not at all fit the bikes being "dumped". IMO

If we assume TG's sighting is correct, which I do, the girls may still have even been at the scene...

Once he's gone past the bikes, if the perp is hiding in the bushes, he then has until almost 4 to stage them, if that's what he wants to do....

hwow:

 

[cindersoot]

Yes ... The purse was 10 feet east of the bikes, so if we place the bikes at the gate, then the purse was 10 feet towards Maiden Lane. The trail is 10 feet wide, so that helps to give a sense of the distance between the gate and the purse.

Otto I by no means want to sound rude, but you know way too much info, like where the purse was how many feet the bikes etc. Are you in LE?

 

[Wishbone]

yeah, but its much better than having to wade through the morass of FB rumours and the like (though maybe not as fun). I think most of the mods and admin here will admit that the MSM only rule isn't perfect, but that it is the best way to run a website like this.

it would help if there were some really awesome investigative reporters who worked hard for their stories. i'm reminded of the lady in Florida who worked the Casey Anthony trial. I can't remember her name at the moment, but she was awesome: did a lot of digging, and asked the hard questions etc.

Sometimes putting all the MSM together and approaching them critically, like nikb is doing, can be helpful.

Kathi Belich....Orlando Sentinal

 

[mahoolin]

I'm sorry I know this is OT but wow that explains a lot about the stuff I feel completely clueless about too! Thanks for posting that.

I understand why you think OT, but I don't think so - everyone at WS has various strengths and weaknesses, and contribute in different ways. That's why you'll never find me creating such wonderful maps or thinking out the strategics of a scene. I'll leave that to the experts.

Lyric and Elizabeth, we're all working on bringing you home lease:

 

[Sunlight]

http://www.wafb.com/story/19219091/mikey-shunicks-body-found
Mickey Shunick disappeared in Lafayette in the early morning hours of May 19, 2012, while riding her bike home. Hundreds of volunteers helped police in the search.

The first big break in the case came eight days after she disappeared; when fishermen found her bike in a swampy area of the Atchafalaya Basin, 25 miles from where she was last seen.

The FBI joined multiple local agencies in the search, including examining waterways near where the bike was found.

As days passed, police knew chances of finding her alive were fading, but her family held out hope as national media picked up the story and police were flooded with thousands of tips.

Then on July 5, 2012, word came that police had a suspect, Brandon Scott Lavergne. After some investigation, he was charged with the murders of two women, including Shunick"

I was just reading the details on it...seems it was his pick-up behind her on the surveillance tape..now that makes me think they might have something like that as "evidence" in the girls' case..depending on who or what is following them, since we only see a snippet. It has been discussed before in the threads..

 

[otto]

Otto I by no means want to sound rude, but you know way too much info, like where the purse was how many feet the bikes etc. Are you in LE?

Not at all. What I know is based on reading the posts here and checking the posted links.

"“We just don’t have much to go on,” Abben said. ” There’s two bikes and a purse that was found. ... There’s nothing really more to tell you than the search is continuing.”

The bikes were found in the trail by the gate leading to a rock jetty and water outlet on the lake. The gate wasn’t locked at the time, Abben said.

There’s a chain link fence on both sides of the trail. The purse was on the lake-side of the fence, about 10 feet to the east of the bikes and about 2 feet from the fence, officials said.

The bikes and purse continue to be the best finds so far, Abben said. That’s why six off-duty Cedar Rapids police officers searched the tall grass and trees along the trail and Highway 20 again Monday."

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/au...cle_87408126-d217-11e1-aec0-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[SapphireSteel]

I was just reading the details on it...seems it was his pick-up behind her on the surveillance tape..now that makes me think they might have something like that as "evidence" in the girls' case..depending on who or what is following them, since we only see a snippet. It has been discussed before in the threads..

They absolutely will.

More and more crimes will be solved this way, just because more and more cameras are around.

Every man and his dog has surveillance now. Soon most peoples daily lives will be trackable by cctv, unless you are very rural.

Scary thought but the technology is already there. They have probably got a really good idea who was on the streets of Evansdale that day, even if they don't necessarily have plate numbers...they will have built a complete picture (almost) just by ATM cameras, receipts, and surveillance and witnesses we don't even know about, like the Casey's guy.

God I love cctv!

:moo:

 

[Sunlight]

So maybe there was a white van behind them in the part of the video we don't see...and maybe that is why they stopped that white van that was at Casey's. So maybe this is a white van sort of scenario..or coincidental that there was a white van..MOO

 

[cindersoot]

They absolutely will.

More and more crimes will be solved this way, just because more and more cameras are around.

Every man and his dog has surveillance now. Soon most peoples daily lives will be trackable by cctv, unless you are very rural.

Scary thought but the technology is already there. They have probably got a really good idea who was on the streets of Evansdale that day, even if they don't necessarily have plate numbers...they will have built a complete picture (almost) just by ATM cameras, receipts, and surveillance and witnesses we don't even know about, like the Casey's guy.

God I love cctv!
Okay catching up. Was a vehicle seen following them on camera?

 

[Wishbone]

Not at all. What I know is based on reading the posts here and checking the posted links.

IMO, and as hard as I try, I just can’t get those bikes to where they were left if I use the time on the video cam near Elizabeth’s home and also the visual sighting of the bikes by TG. That puts me back at square one on what to think. I either have to discount TG or the video or maybe both……I just know the timeline does not work.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I understand why you think OT, but I don't think so - everyone at WS has various strengths and weaknesses, and contribute in different ways. That's why you'll never find me creating such wonderful maps or thinking out the strategics of a scene. I'll leave that to the experts.

Lyric and Elizabeth, we're all working on bringing you home lease:

I have a compensating talent in the other direction too...that of discerning emotion, motive, human intent and nature.

Like a blind guy with a great sense of hearing, I am very intuitive and it could all be part of the syndrome.

 

[nikb]

but some inconsistencies were not the media, it was the family itself (not bashing) just in the heat of the moment various family members said different things. Who knows why, but their stories did vary. Plus the fact that Grandmother, Misty and Heather all thought the girls never went to the lake, but later on in one of the last interviews Aunt T said they'd been to the lake w/ the neighbors.

So, until LE confirms any of the witnesses and actual times, we have to go with approximate or maybe?

Agreed completely. I can easily understand mistaking "feet" for "yards" by the family under stress. I tried to leave out the examples where family seemed to have been inconsistent. Consistent stories from the family/friends would probably worry me more than inconsistent ones. (nothing against anybody but it's hard to know what'll happen under extreme stress). I just couldn't believe how inconsistent even the MSM was when I looked back.

I think you're right all we can really go by is approximates and maybes for the most part. Frustrating.

 

[SapphireSteel]

IMO, and as hard as I try, I just can’t get those bikes to where they were left if I use the time on the video cam near Elizabeth’s home and also the visual sighting of the bikes by TG. That puts me back at square one on what to think. I either have to discount TG or the video or maybe both……I just know the timeline does not work.

It does work, to me. Perfectly in fact.

Mr Pahl says LE are working with an 8 minute time frame.

That gives them perfect time to get to the lake, at an average speed.

It then takes a quick second to snatch them off their bikes.

TG comes along at 12.20 with his ipod on, swerves past the bikes, doesn't even see the girls, keeps going. The girls may even have still been in the wooded area, with the perp.

Once TG is gone, the perp had all afternoon. No one else has confirmed seeing the bikes until they were found by LE at nearly 4, implying to me at least, no one else went down the pathway that afternoon.


:moo:

 

[Bootsctr]

If we assume TG's sighting is correct, which I do, the girls may still have even been at the scene...

Once he's gone past the bikes, if the perp is hiding in the bushes, he then has until almost 4 to stage them, if that's what he wants to do....

hwow:

:clap: Amazing post yourself! I also believe TG's sighting and I believe Mr. Pahl and ccv camera time stamp is correct (well 8 minutes slow, but good enough that we can tighten the timeline). Whomever did this was almost caught by TG. I do believe the bikes were staged... the perp wanted LE thinking the girls had gone to the water. They knew the water would be searched long enough for a longer headstart. Still hoping they will be found soon.

:back:

 

[cindersoot]

Was there a vehicle following the girls on camera?

 

[SapphireSteel]

Agreed completely. I can easily understand mistaking "feet" for "yards" by the family under stress. I tried to leave out the examples where family seemed to have been inconsistent. Consistent stories from the family/friends would probably worry me more than inconsistent ones. (nothing against anybody but it's hard to know what'll happen under extreme stress). I just couldn't believe how inconsistent even the MSM was when I looked back.

I think you're right all we can really go by is approximates and maybes for the most part. Frustrating.

Maybe the familly has dyscalculia :lol:

 

[hollyblue]

It does work, to me. Perfectly in fact.

Mr Pahl says LE are working with an 8 minute time frame.

That gives them perfect time to get to the lake, at an average speed.

It then takes a quick second to snatch them off their bikes.

TG comes along at 12.20 with his ipod on, swerves past the bikes, doesn't even see the girls, keeps going. The girls may even have still been in the wooded area, with the perp.

Once TG is gone, the perp had all afternoon. No one else has confirmed seeing the bikes until they were found by LE at nearly 4, implying to me at least, no one else went down the pathway that afternoon.


:moo:

I wouldn't be surprised if some people walking east turn around before they get to that gate area. Some not wanting to walk the creepy part of the trail and parents telling children to turn around and head back at a certain part to be sure they see them at all times. jmo

 

[ROM828]

Was there a vehicle following the girls on camera?

THe only info is the short few seconds we see in the video. It's possibly LE sees more since they have access to the entire footage. Although, I find it hard to believe that IF they saw a vehicle follow them, they wouldn't notify the public immediately....or have it solved by now. IMO

 

[otto]

IMO, and as hard as I try, I just can’t get those bikes to where they were left if I use the time on the video cam near Elizabeth’s home and also the visual sighting of the bikes by TG. That puts me back at square one on what to think. I either have to discount TG or the video or maybe both……I just know the timeline does not work.

The timestamp on the video is 12:11 and is supposedly 8 minutes slow ... so that puts us to 12:19 for the girls being seen on video. The cyclist called his daughter at 12:27 from the gas station where he used the washroom. That places him at the trail at about 12:20. It seems to me that the cyclist's tip doesn't fit with other facts. The FBI have stated that there was a "runner" or jogger that was on the trail, saw the bikes and has an accurate time.

We have never heard that the cyclist saw the bikes at the gate, so it's possible that he saw bikes on the ground at a different location. Since police have verified the video, I think that's the only timeline we have. Since the cyclist's daughter posted on facebook, maybe she should ask him where along the trail he saw the bikes ... clear this up once and for all.

 

[lishac23]

:clap: Amazing post yourself! I also believe TG's sighting and I believe Mr. Pahl and ccv camera time stamp is correct (well 8 minutes slow, but good enough that we can tighten the timeline). Whomever did this was almost caught by TG. I do believe the bikes were staged... the perp wanted LE thinking the girls had gone to the water. They knew the water would be searched long enough for a longer headstart. Still hoping they will be found soon.

:back:

For the sake of conversation, by no means to disregard this theory... but I can't get passed why a perp who has just kidnapped two girls would take the time to stage a scene...and risk the possibity of being caught? How would the perp have known how soon someone would be looking for them?