IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[nikb]

Do we know which bike was laying down and which one was leaning on the fence?

My original impression was they were both laying on the ground at first, and against the fence later. After re-reading I think one might've been standing up against the fence and the other one with it and they weren't actually moved. I don't know and haven't seen anything reported as definite though.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I was also curious about that ... about how the situation was perceived at first. It sounds like police located the bikes, most likely picked them up and leaned them against the fence to get them out of the way. Then they looked around for the girls. It seems like they assumed that they wandered away, especially with the two weekend 1000 people searching the 12 acres. Wasn't it after this that the drowning theory kicked in, even though the purse had been found on the lakeside of the fence. The lake draining took another 5 days, a little longer than expected. Finally, it was labelled an abduction. Although there were parallel investiations ongoing, much of the scene was contaminated while the drowning or lost theories were excluded.

It's understandable that the first assumptions would be that they simply wandered off (benefit of the doubt), that they got lost and needed to be found. After exploring that option, the next optimistic option was drowning. Finally, the worst case scenario had to be acknowledged.

If the bikes were staged to obscure evidence, it worked.

BBM

You are off by a factor of 640 in the area searched; the volunteers searched 12 square miles, not just 12 acres (which isn't even one corn or bean field).

From the first weekend, LE was, in my opinion and to my knowledge, working the possibility that the girls had died and been dumped somewhere.

Children over about 6 years just don't get lost in corn fields or bean fields. It would be highly unlikely for two girls 8 and 10 years old to get so hopelessly lost in a corn field they couldn't figure a way out.

I know that cadaver dogs were deployed starting first thing in the morning Saturday 14 July. LE doesn't call for cadaver dogs when they expect to find live victims. Treat this information as gossip; I got it from a friend who deployed with her cadaver dog that morning. She got the call at near midnight Friday evening.

Yes, the area where the bikes were found was contaminated. I don't see how that could be avoided, though, at that point. If they had some way to know that this was probably an abduction, I'm certain they would have treated the scene differently.

If the bicycles were staged to obscure evidence of the real crime scene, then the evidence at the real crime scene is probably still intact.

 

[Jules71]

Well someone made a good point that maybe the part of the street they are turning around in, is the end the carpenters live on. Meaning, maybe it's not that they never go to the lake and always turn around before, but instead maybe they are often at the lake and ride down lake ave and turn around and go back toward the lake.

Yes! That makes sense. So instead of what we were thinking he meant that they pass by his house and turn around at the far end where it meets Evans - they really come from the lake and head up his street and turn around at his house. Interesting! I get the feeling they are purposely riding by someone. I wonder how long Mr C would say this has been going on. Was it fairly recently that he was seeing E. I think she/they had a new friend. I do not think this was random at all.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[katydid23]

Maybe. But are 8 and 10 year old girls that interested in fishing. I can see it getting really boring, really fast...but it's possible I'm just projecting since you'd have to pay me a lot of money to even contemplate fishing.

My DD used to love it until Grandpa showed her how to gut the fish. That ended her love of fishing.

But whenever we went hiking , which we did a lot, my kids loved to stop and look in the buckets to see what people caught. They always said hello to people fishing and were interested in what they were doing.

And people say that Lizzie was very friendly and talkative and I think Lyric was
wanting positive interactions too. So a perp, no matter what they were doing as a lure, could have groomed them successfully. Whether it was with a puppy or an ice cream truck or a paddle boat or whatever.

But since it is a lake, and they seemed to have walked through that gate, I cannot see any reason for them to have gone through that other than for a paddle boat or a chance to fish.

 

[Confusion]

I guess I'm gtetting desparate for ideas, but I'm going back to how I fixed my car when I was still able to do it myself. Go with the simplest thing first.

Someone (and I'm kicking myself for forgetting who and being too lazy to go back and look) was talking about the possiblity that the girls were messing around and Lyric threw Elizabeth's purse over the fence. It hit me a few minutes ago that Lyric could have tried to grab Elizabeth to slow her down (it looked like Lyric was riding behind in the video, if it was them.) If she grabbed the purse instead of her arm, she may have thrown it just to tease her, and got it over the fence.

They could have stopped quickly to go get it, and went through the gate to try to get it that way (if the dogs did actually go to the water first) and then went back down the path to go around the fence there because it would be easier to walk that way. If someone were near there in Maiden Lane, they may have seen the girls and grabbed them because they assumed the girls had seen thm too, or the girls could have been distracted by something they saw farther down Maiden Lane and went to check it out and got caught.

I really don't know what they may have seen, but it could have been a big drug deal, someone else being assaulted, stolen goods being sold, or any number of other things that repeat offenders especially wouldn't want seen.

 

[otto]

My original impression was they were both laying on the ground at first, and against the fence later. After re-reading I think one might've been standing up against the fence and the other one with it and they weren't actually moved. I don't know and haven't seen anything reported as definite though.

If we read between the lines of Abben's statement, he says that when he arrived, they were leaning against the fence. I think that means that either he's not revealing how they were found, or he didn't know at the time he made the statement. Either way, it doesn't exclude the possibility that they were on the ground when discovered at 3:58.

 

[otto]

BBM

You are off by a factor of 640 in the area searched; the volunteers searched 12 square miles, not just 12 acres (which isn't even one corn or bean field).

From the first weekend, LE was, in my opinion and to my knowledge, working the possibility that the girls had died and been dumped somewhere.

Children over about 6 years just don't get lost in corn fields or bean fields. It would be highly unlikely for two girls 8 and 10 years old to get so hopelessly lost in a corn field they couldn't figure a way out.

I know that cadaver dogs were deployed starting first thing in the morning Saturday 14 July. LE doesn't call for cadaver dogs when they expect to find live victims. Treat this information as gossip; I got it from a friend who deployed with her cadaver dog that morning. She got the call at near midnight Friday evening.

Yes, the area where the bikes were found was contaminated. I don't see how that could be avoided, though, at that point. If they had some way to know that this was probably an abduction, I'm certain they would have treated the scene differently.

If the bicycles were staged to obscure evidence of the real crime scene, then the evidence at the real crime scene is probably still intact.

Even I am guilty of getting the units wrong. Thank you.

It's possible that the girls were riding the trail, one or two people stepped through the gate, the bikes fell to the ground, the girls were through the gate and on the other side of the fence - where Elizabeth dropped her purse, taken the 100 feet along the shore and disappeared into a vehicle on Maiden Lane. No staging, nothing added.

 

[ScotsPaddy]

Wow its hard t keep up with you guys!,i go away for a wee sleep come back and im way behind lol.
Ive nothing new to add sorry,i feel youve all covered nearly every scenario,its just so frustrating not knowing whats happened,not even having a direction to go in and focus on,apart from abduction..
Sitting here at the pc i notice that all my clocks in the house are at different times,7 mins difference between my pc and mobile phone and 13 mins between my cooker and phone so im just wondering how much if any things change by adding 10-15mins either side of the times stated?..

 

[CHERIE.T]

My DD used to love it until Grandpa showed her how to gut the fish. That ended her love of fishing.

But whenever we went hiking , which we did a lot, my kids loved to stop and look in the buckets to see what people caught. They always said hello to people fishing and were interested in what they were doing.

And people say that Lizzie was very friendly and talkative and I think Lyric was
wanting positive interactions too. So a perp, no matter what they were doing as a lure, could have groomed them successfully. Whether it was with a puppy or an ice cream truck or a paddle boat or whatever.

But since it is a lake, and they seemed to have walked through that gate, I I see any reason for them to have gone through that other than for a paddle boat or a chance to fish.

Katy,

I wondered about the girls maybe talking with someone on the net. Maybe someone who lured the girls to sneak off and meet them.

Did the scent dogs pick up a scent near the gate? I know the fence was mentioned but the gate? Not sure.

 

[otto]

My DD used to love it until Grandpa showed her how to gut the fish. That ended her love of fishing.

But whenever we went hiking , which we did a lot, my kids loved to stop and look in the buckets to see what people caught. They always said hello to people fishing and were interested in what they were doing.

And people say that Lizzie was very friendly and talkative and I think Lyric was
wanting positive interactions too. So a perp, no matter what they were doing as a lure, could have groomed them successfully. Whether it was with a puppy or an ice cream truck or a paddle boat or whatever.

But since it is a lake, and they seemed to have walked through that gate, I cannot see any reason for them to have gone through that other than for a paddle boat or a chance to fish.

I think they could have been forced through the gate, or trapped in such a way that it was the only alternative. They were riding their bikes and maybe they ended up at the SE tip of Meyers Lake. As they were riding up the trail towards the gate, if one or two people walked through the gate; blocking the trail, they would have had no where to go. The would have dropped their bikes and looked for a way out if it was a bad situation. If someone was behind them, they had no chance. In any case, it's possible that they were abducted without a lure.

 

[nikb]

I didn't. lol

lol same here! I hated fishing so much I insisted on a burial and funeral for the first fish I ever caught. I think my parents went for the burial but I had to do the 'funeral' on my own.

After that used to sneak the bait off the hook so I could look like I was fishing without actually doing so. And I still caught the dang things once in awhile. It depends SO much on the kid. The purse thing keeps bugging me as depending so much on the kid, too. Some kids would never leave their purses voluntarily, others that wouldn't care much or even notice for awhile. Wish we knew more about these girls.

 

[CHERIE.T]

lol same here! I hated fishing so much I insisted on a burial and funeral for the first fish I ever caught. I think my parents went for the burial but I had to do the 'funeral' on my own.

After that used to sneak the bait off the hook so I could look like I was fishing without actually doing so. And I still caught the dang things once in awhile. It depends SO much on the kid. The purse thing keeps bugging me as depending so much on the kid, too. Some kids would never leave their purses voluntarily, others that wouldn't care much or even notice for awhile. Wish we knew more about these girls.

If a little girl feels her purse is important enough to take with her on a bike ride , I don't think shed throw it down and leave it. IMO

I agree with who ever said the purse may have been tossed when the perp saw the cell phone. Didn't want to take a chance of being followed g.

 

[hambirg]

If we read between the lines of Abben's statement, he says that when he arrived, they were leaning against the fence. I think that means that either he's not revealing how they were found, or he didn't know at the time he made the statement. Either way, it doesn't exclude the possibility that they were on the ground when discovered at 3:58.

You know what? I think this might be one of the details that LE purposely doesn't want out there. . .which leads me to believe that LE believes that this IS the sight of the abduction.

I think it could have very well happened as you described. The only other possibility I can imagine is a single perp with a weapon.

The question is how did the perp(s) know the girls would be coming down there? Or did they? Could it have simply been a trap and crime of opportunity? It's possible.

This makes me uneasy about the CL/campground/looks for random sex on bike trails person.

 

[otto]

Since we're referencing Occam ...

 

[otto]

You know what? I think this might be one of the details that LE purposely doesn't want out there. . .which leads me to believe that LE believes that this IS the sight of the abduction.

I think it could have very well happened as you described. The only other possibility I can imagine is a single perp with a weapon.

The question is how did the perp(s) know the girls would be coming down there? Or did they? Could it have simply been a trap and crime of opportunity? It's possible.

This makes me uneasy about the CL/campground/looks for random sex on bike trails person.

I don't think he or they neccessarily knew that the girls would be riding down the path, they could have been waiting for a possible victim. It was noon on a Friday. Here, people go jogging at noon ... the paths are filled with people. He or they may have simply been waiting for an easy victim for one or two perps. Two seems a little more likely.

If he/they knew that the girls were riding down the path, he/they wouldn't need to surprise them at the gate, Wouldn't he or they have arranged to meet the girls at a more convenient place without the bikes. They lived close enough to a shopping district that they could have easily met up with someone without riding bikes to Meyers Lake ... I would think.

 

[otto]

If a little girl feels her purse is important enough to take with her on a bike ride , I don't think shed throw it down and leave it. IMO

I agree with who ever said the purse may have been tossed when the perp saw the cell phone. Didn't want to take a chance of being followed g.

It may have been very clear to the girls that they were in serious trouble right away and it's possible that Elizabeth was told to put the purse down, especially if she was asked about a cell phone. I doubt that the purse was tossed over the fence. Given the 6 foot high fence, tossing it would increase the chance of the content spilling or the purse going into the water. Neither happened ... as far as we know. I remember an early rumor about the cell phone being a short distance from the purse, but that has not been confirmed.

 

[CHERIE.T]

It may have been very clear to the girls that they were in serious trouble right away and it's possible that Elizabeth was told to put the purse down, especially if she was asked about a cell phone. I doubt that the purse was tossed over the fence. Given the 6 foot high fence, tossing it would increase the chance of the content spilling or the purse going into the water. Neither happened ... as far as we know. I remember an early rumor about the cell phone being a short distance from the purse, but that has not been confirmed.

Of course youre right. If the girls were told to put the purse down, they complied. Like you I wish we knew if the cell was found in or out of the bag. :moo:

 

[otto]

In the Victoria Stafford case, she was kept alive while the couple got gas, hit the bank machine, got coffee, picked up a murder kit at a hardware store (out of town) and drove to an isolated location. Her body was put in garbage bags and hidden under rocks a couple of hours drive out of town. The couple discarded evidence along the highway while driving home.

From the first day, when I heard that two girls were missing, I was not optiminstic.

 

[otto]

I feel like I'm all over the planet here with my maps and speculations, but I'm a visual person and need to see the possibilities.

I like the grandmother's theory except for the staging part. Staging adds a risk factor that isn't necessary. I have never believed the paddleboat theory. I seem to recall that one of the moms said that she spoke to a paddle boat person when she first got to the park ... something about a paddle boat person having seen the girls. I don't have a link, so perhaps that didn't happen. I firmly believe that the family is not involved. The parents may have substance abuse problems, but to stretch that into some type of culpability ... that doesn't work for me. I have no idea what route the girls took to the lake, but I suspect that they cut through the back roads after first going West and then turning left, perhaps taking a cycling loop that they travelled before.

Isn't Occams razor about carefully excluding all the uncertainties until whatever is left is what really happened?

 

[SapphireSteel]

I feel like I'm all over the planet here with my maps and speculations, but I'm a visual person and need to see the possibilities.

I like the grandmother's theory except for the staging part. Staging adds a risk factor that isn't necessary. I have never believed the paddleboat theory. I seem to recall that one of the moms said that she spoke to a paddle boat person when she first got to the park ... something about a paddle boat person having seen the girls. I don't have a link, so perhaps that didn't happen. I firmly believe that the family is not involved. The parents may have substance abuse problems, but to stretch that into some type of culpability ... that doesn't work for me. I have no idea what route the girls took to the lake, but I suspect that they cut through the back roads after first going West and then turning left, perhaps taking a cycling loop that they travelled before.

Isn't Occams razor about carefully excluding all the uncertainties until whatever is left is what really happened?

How do you explain their changing stories? Timelines, where the girls would/wouldn't go etc.

Just mistaken?