IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #20

[GrainneDhu]

I had thought about that too,but then that would make this a random act IMO .how could a perp just see two girls and make a plan in an instant (which is about how long it took I'm guessing) how he would abduct two girls without being seen. I just can't think of a senario that works with this being random because of the speed at which it happened and the setting also. Anyone follow what I mean?

My theory is that the perp had found the area and made plans around it without knowing exactly who it was would be caught.

I doubt the perp set out to catch two victims but when two rode into the trap area, the perp couldn't resist.

This fits the pattern of Ted Bundy, Joseph Duncan III, Gary Ridgway and other serial killers. They were careful not to select any victim they had a connection to, knowing that by selecting only strangers their risk of being caught went way down. So they would set their trap in a certain area and take the first victim they were able to catch.

 

[Bootsctr]

I am mindful that, in the early days, the FBI confirmed that the dogs led them to the water, which is also where the bicycles were found. They also specifically said they found the scent "in the area near Meyers Lake".

In the Evansdale case, Breault said the dogs had indicated the girls’ scent was in the area near Meyers Lake.
“The scent did lead to the water, which is also where their bikes were found,” she said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_e795f002-d1ad-11e1-b983-001a4bcf887a.html

If the dogs led TO the bikes/water, it means the starting point for the scent trail was somewhere else...clearly, somewhere, anywhere potentially, "near Meyers Lake".

Where, exactly? Elmer or Arbutus? Or home? (my guess). I'm sure they know.

Another thought I had - does the scent trail itself somehow indicate staging? Does it stop and start or run contrary to sightings or the laws of logic or science?

:websleuther:

My guess is home too. I hope they know too. If the scent trail lends itself to staging (this is where I am very confused - FBI sounded like not staging and Abben seemed to indicate staging), the perp is as you said "highly organized." If the abduction was not for sexual gratification and planned to a "T" then who would that be? A Meth hitman of sorts?

 

[Bootsctr]

I just think a perp obsessed with fantasies of young girls being overcome and "taken" if you will, could have spent a substantial time planning out scenarios where he could make his fantasies become reality. That would include how, when, where to befriend and/or lure, and abduct them somewhere hidden from view and as quickly as possible. MOO

:goodpost:

This person or persons would definitely know all that you mention and would especially know where he was going to take the girls and the quickest way to get there. I don't think that included the section of the interstate that had the construction.

 

[GrainneDhu]

What is everyones thought on why TG's timeframe was wrong?

Apparently, he didn't realise there was any significance to what he'd seen until many hours after the phone call to his daughter.

So, my personal theory is that his subconscious mind took something that had happened a day or a few days before 13 July and put it with the memory of calling his daughter.

In other words, it didn't happen the way he said but he thought it did (which is not unusual, according to research into memory).

 

[GrainneDhu]

Has that island in Meyers Lake been throughly searched?

I have a funny feeling about it when I look at the aerial map.

LE searched the island in the first weekend.

 

[Bootsctr]

Resopectfully sbm

Just a comment about staging the bikes ... another theory could be that the perp drove the girls and the bikes to the lake and told them to park the bikes themselves, so no prints or dna from the perp.

Just all my own thoughts and IMOO.:twocents:

T I A

Looks something like this:

DISCLAIMER: This is not a vehicle that I have any personal knowledge of that was in any way connected to Cornbelt Auctions. It is just a photo of a similar vehicle that MAY have been auctioned at Cornbelt Auctions. This picture is for reference only.

I think the theory of the perp driving the girls to the lake and having them park the bikes themselves fits with the perfect "manufactured" storm.

Regarding the vehicle used in the abduction, the perp could have had access to more than one vehicle. Wayne Williams, the serial killer in most of the Atlanta child murders, had access to several vehicles. His own, his mother and father's vehicle and another person who was living at the home at the time. I don't believe the vehicle used for the abduction is being used at this time.

 

[Bootsctr]

Has that island in Meyers Lake been throughly searched?

I have a funny feeling about it when I look at the aerial map.

I believe it has been searched extensively. I think a local, perhaps cindersoot, told us the island was searched.

 

[Bootsctr]

My theory is that the perp had found the area and made plans around it without knowing exactly who it was would be caught.

I doubt the perp set out to catch two victims but when two rode into the trap area, the perp couldn't resist.

This fits the pattern of Ted Bundy, Joseph Duncan III, Gary Ridgway and other serial killers. They were careful not to select any victim they had a connection to, knowing that by selecting only strangers their risk of being caught went way down. So they would set their trap in a certain area and take the first victim they were able to catch.

YIKES! I love your theory! He found the area first and planned around the lake and skate park. It's like the spider and the fly. All he had to do was wait and taking someone random would greatly reduce his chance of being under the umbrella of suspicion. Thank you GrainneDhu!

 

[hambirg]

This is basically the route I think the girls took, except I think there was some cutting through parking lots, etc near the top.


http://goo.gl/maps/dVL6a

 

[Bootsctr]

This is basically the route I think the girls took, except I think there was some cutting through parking lots, etc near the top.


http://goo.gl/maps/dVL6a

Interesting! I like this route because it is more of a straight shot from Morrell onto the Evansdale Nature Trail which goes directly by the skate park. Makes perfect sense for the girls to take that route because of less traffic and because of the skate park. I would have thought they would have crossed Gilbert and continued on the Nature Trail.... but, once the girls saw no one at the skate park they would have wanted to go to the front of Meyers Lake on Elmer Avenue. Do you think the girls were familiar with the back side of the lake, or was this their first venture that far on the trail around the lake?

 

[roseofsharon]

Apparently, he didn't realise there was any significance to what he'd seen until many hours after the phone call to his daughter.

So, my personal theory is that his subconscious mind took something that had happened a day or a few days before 13 July and put it with the memory of calling his daughter.

In other words, it didn't happen the way he said but he thought it did (which is not unusual, according to research into memory).

Grainne, please help me, I'm confused again ... did TG see the girls' bikes or two other bikes on the trail.

If TG didn't see the girls' bikes, I don't understand any significance to his seeing bikes at all.

IMO, but I'm confused and need your explanation. TIA

 

[roseofsharon]

Resopectfully sbm



I think the theory of the perp driving the girls to the lake and having them park the bikes themselves fits with the perfect "manufactured" storm.

Regarding the vehicle used in the abduction, the perp could have had access to more than one vehicle. Wayne Williams, the serial killer in most of the Atlanta child murders, had access to several vehicles. His own, his mother and father's vehicle and another person who was living at the home at the time. I don't believe the vehicle used for the abduction is being used at this time.

I get the feeling the perp was a person of authority or dressed like one. Someone children would think they could trust. IMO

 

[GrainneDhu]

YIKES! I love your theory! He found the area first and planned around the lake and skate park. It's like the spider and the fly. All he had to do was wait and taking someone random would greatly reduce his chance of being under the umbrella of suspicion. Thank you GrainneDhu!

Ever since Ollipop posted information that pegged normal traffic on the nature trail at around 10 users per hour, I've thought it was the perfect place for a "spider" type of attack (I love that comparison). That would be an average of one user every six minutes, which would give plenty of time to select and attack one before the next user came into sight.

Of course, people never act the way the numbers indicate. There were undoubtedly small groups of people at times and longer waits between users at times but overall, it was the perfect spot for that type of attack.

Waiting for the right victim may also have increased the perp's frustration level, so that when 2 girls came along, the perp was more willing to take the opportunity to strike.

 

[daisynae]

Can anyone tell me if Dan had court today and what happened?
Did he get a change of venue?
Thanks!

 

[GrainneDhu]

Grainne, please help me, I'm confused again ... did TG see the girls' bikes or two other bikes on the trail.

If TG didn't see the girls' bikes, I don't understand any significance to his seeing bikes at all.

IMO, but I'm confused and need your explanation. TIA

From the timeline published, it's clear that he could not have seen the girls' bicycles that particular day because they were at the other end of town when he said he saw them.

In my theory, TG made an honest mistake. He did not see the girls' bicycles that day, he only thought he did. His mind conflated two different events: seeing bicycles on the path one day and calling his daughter on another day to come up with the memory of seeing the bicycles on that particular day.

Conflating two memories is far from a rare event. I do it almost every day, when I'm trying to remember if my husband did his asthma inhaler that day or not. We use pill boxes with daily partitions for pills but the asthma inhaler doesn't fit into the pill box! So I'm left trying to remember if he did it that day or am I remembering from a different day.

 

[roseofsharon]

At one user on the trail every six minutes, it seems it would be a very risky place for an abduction to take place.

Another theory might be someone walking the trail with just a dog leash told the girls their puppy ran into the bushes and approached the girls to help.

I can almost visualize a young woman doing this with a male accomplice.

IMO

 

[LaylaD]

Can anyone tell me if Dan had court today and what happened?
Did he get a change of venue?
Thanks!

Generally judges decisions/rulings are not made on the spot, so I believe it may be too early to expect to hear results.

 

[roseofsharon]

Until this kidnapping, I had never heard of Evansdale or Waterloo Iowa, but after looking over so many aerial views on the maps, it is a very pretty place, especially with all the waterways. MOO

 

[Marilynilpa]

Apparently, he didn't realise there was any significance to what he'd seen until many hours after the phone call to his daughter.

So, my personal theory is that his subconscious mind took something that had happened a day or a few days before 13 July and put it with the memory of calling his daughter.

In other words, it didn't happen the way he said but he thought it did (which is not unusual, according to research into memory).

A few years ago my boyfriend and I had a very heated "discussion" (argument!) over a call I'd placed regarding an overdue furniture delivery. I could very clearly remember the day of the week, time of day, and what was on t.v. when I made the call. He insisted I'd made the call a day later.

This was before the days of being able to check your cell phone log to see when a call was placed. When I mentioned this argument with my BF, my mom totally amazed me by agreeing with HIM! It turns out I couldn't have placed the call on the day I said I did, because my mom and I had coffee together at her house that morning and I never used my phone while there.

Was I intentionally being deceptive? No. Was I stubborn in my position that I made that call on that day at that time? Yes. Was I wrong? Absolutely, positively.

TG was just wrong, IMO. Absolutely, positively.

 

[hambirg]

Interesting! I like this route because it is more of a straight shot from Morrell onto the Evansdale Nature Trail which goes directly by the skate park. Makes perfect sense for the girls to take that route because of less traffic and because of the skate park. I would have thought they would have crossed Gilbert and continued on the Nature Trail.... but, once the girls saw no one at the skate park they would have wanted to go to the front of Meyers Lake on Elmer Avenue. Do you think the girls were familiar with the back side of the lake, or was this their first venture that far on the trail around the lake?

I really don't know, but I sure wish I did!

I'm torn between the girls wanting to go by the skate park and then just stopping to use the bathrooms and get a drink at the lake before heading home. . .and they were lured to the back side of the lake from there. . .or abducted right there and the bikes staged from Arbutus.

It's just a gut feeling that going to the SE corner of the lake wasn't part of their original plan. I think they planned to be home before 1:30. But that didn't happen.

But I think this fits the timeline pretty well. . .12:19ish on cctv. . .up and around that area to the trail and down on to Gilbert close to 12:30. . .maybe bumming around the Elmer area to 1ish. . .and then something happened. I think LE believes the bikes were being staged (or perhaps the girls were in the SE corner) 1:30 to 1:45ish. The perp is leaving the area around 2pm.

All just MOO

ETA- I just had a thought. Up thread I posted that maybe the perp took the girls' bikes while they were in the bathroom. That would be a good way to deal with the bikes separately from the girls and create a "crisis," if you will, where they might let their guard down to someone they don't know or know well. Well. . .what time was WC driving around looking for them? IF the girls were messing around in the bathrooms. ..like girls that age do. . .and the bikes were already stashed in a vehicle, WC wouldn't have seen the girls or their bikes at the lake. Hmmmm. . . .